973 resultados para statistical speaker models


Relevância:

40.00% 40.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Biological membranes are constituted from lipid bilayers and proteins. Investigation of protein-membrane interaction, essential for biological function of cells, must rest upon solid knowledge of lipid bilayer behavior. Thus, extensive studies of an experimental model for membranes, lipid bilayers in water solution, have been undertaken in the last decades. These systems present structural, thermal and electrical properties which depend on temperature, ionic strength or concentration. In this talk, we shall discuss statistical models for lipid bilayers, as well as the relation between their properties and results for properties of lipid dispersions investigated by the laboratories supervised by Teresa Lamy (IF-USP) and Amando Ito (FFCL-USP).

Relevância:

40.00% 40.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Nella tesi sono trattate due famiglie di modelli meccanico statistici su vari grafi: i modelli di spin ferromagnetici (o di Ising) e i modelli di monomero-dimero. Il primo capitolo è dedicato principalmente allo studio del lavoro di Dembo e Montanari, in cui viene risolto il modello di Ising su grafi aleatori. Nel secondo capitolo vengono studiati i modelli di monomero-dimero, a partire dal lavoro di Heilemann e Lieb,con l'intento di dare contributi nuovi alla teoria. I principali temi trattati sono disuguaglianze di correlazione, soluzioni esatte su alcuni grafi ad albero e sul grafo completo, la concentrazione dell'energia libera intorno al proprio valor medio sul grafo aleatorio diluito di Erdös-Rényi.

Relevância:

40.00% 40.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The uncertainties in the determination of the stratigraphic profile of natural soils is one of the main problems in geotechnics, in particular for landslide characterization and modeling. The study deals with a new approach in geotechnical modeling which relays on a stochastic generation of different soil layers distributions, following a boolean logic – the method has been thus called BoSG (Boolean Stochastic Generation). In this way, it is possible to randomize the presence of a specific material interdigitated in a uniform matrix. In the building of a geotechnical model it is generally common to discard some stratigraphic data in order to simplify the model itself, assuming that the significance of the results of the modeling procedure would not be affected. With the proposed technique it is possible to quantify the error associated with this simplification. Moreover, it could be used to determine the most significant zones where eventual further investigations and surveys would be more effective to build the geotechnical model of the slope. The commercial software FLAC was used for the 2D and 3D geotechnical model. The distribution of the materials was randomized through a specifically coded MatLab program that automatically generates text files, each of them representing a specific soil configuration. Besides, a routine was designed to automate the computation of FLAC with the different data files in order to maximize the sample number. The methodology is applied with reference to a simplified slope in 2D, a simplified slope in 3D and an actual landslide, namely the Mortisa mudslide (Cortina d’Ampezzo, BL, Italy). However, it could be extended to numerous different cases, especially for hydrogeological analysis and landslide stability assessment, in different geological and geomorphological contexts.

Relevância:

40.00% 40.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Monomer-dimer models are amongst the models in statistical mechanics which found application in many areas of science, ranging from biology to social sciences. This model describes a many-body system in which monoatomic and diatomic particles subject to hard-core interactions get deposited on a graph. In our work we provide an extension of this model to higher-order particles. The aim of our work is threefold: first we study the thermodynamic properties of the newly introduced model. We solve analytically some regular cases and find that, differently from the original, our extension admits phase transitions. Then we tackle the inverse problem, both from an analytical and numerical perspective. Finally we propose an application to aggregation phenomena in virtual messaging services.

Relevância:

40.00% 40.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

An appropriate model of recent human evolution is not only important to understand our own history, but it is necessary to disentangle the effects of demography and selection on genome diversity. Although most genetic data support the view that our species originated recently in Africa, it is still unclear if it completely replaced former members of the Homo genus, or if some interbreeding occurred during its range expansion. Several scenarios of modern human evolution have been proposed on the basis of molecular and paleontological data, but their likelihood has never been statistically assessed. Using DNA data from 50 nuclear loci sequenced in African, Asian and Native American samples, we show here by extensive simulations that a simple African replacement model with exponential growth has a higher probability (78%) as compared with alternative multiregional evolution or assimilation scenarios. A Bayesian analysis of the data under this best supported model points to an origin of our species approximately 141 thousand years ago (Kya), an exit out-of-Africa approximately 51 Kya, and a recent colonization of the Americas approximately 10.5 Kya. We also find that the African replacement model explains not only the shallow ancestry of mtDNA or Y-chromosomes but also the occurrence of deep lineages at some autosomal loci, which has been formerly interpreted as a sign of interbreeding with Homo erectus.

Relevância:

40.00% 40.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

A problem frequently encountered in Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is that the total number of inputs and outputs included tend to be too many relative to the sample size. One way to counter this problem is to combine several inputs (or outputs) into (meaningful) aggregate variables reducing thereby the dimension of the input (or output) vector. A direct effect of input aggregation is to reduce the number of constraints. This, in its turn, alters the optimal value of the objective function. In this paper, we show how a statistical test proposed by Banker (1993) may be applied to test the validity of a specific way of aggregating several inputs. An empirical application using data from Indian manufacturing for the year 2002-03 is included as an example of the proposed test.

Relevância:

40.00% 40.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Aplicación de simulación de Monte Carlo y técnicas de Análisis de la Varianza (ANOVA) a la comparación de modelos estocásticos dinámicos para accidentes de tráfico.

Relevância:

40.00% 40.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

La predicción de energía eólica ha desempeñado en la última década un papel fundamental en el aprovechamiento de este recurso renovable, ya que permite reducir el impacto que tiene la naturaleza fluctuante del viento en la actividad de diversos agentes implicados en su integración, tales como el operador del sistema o los agentes del mercado eléctrico. Los altos niveles de penetración eólica alcanzados recientemente por algunos países han puesto de manifiesto la necesidad de mejorar las predicciones durante eventos en los que se experimenta una variación importante de la potencia generada por un parque o un conjunto de ellos en un tiempo relativamente corto (del orden de unas pocas horas). Estos eventos, conocidos como rampas, no tienen una única causa, ya que pueden estar motivados por procesos meteorológicos que se dan en muy diferentes escalas espacio-temporales, desde el paso de grandes frentes en la macroescala a procesos convectivos locales como tormentas. Además, el propio proceso de conversión del viento en energía eléctrica juega un papel relevante en la ocurrencia de rampas debido, entre otros factores, a la relación no lineal que impone la curva de potencia del aerogenerador, la desalineación de la máquina con respecto al viento y la interacción aerodinámica entre aerogeneradores. En este trabajo se aborda la aplicación de modelos estadísticos a la predicción de rampas a muy corto plazo. Además, se investiga la relación de este tipo de eventos con procesos atmosféricos en la macroescala. Los modelos se emplean para generar predicciones de punto a partir del modelado estocástico de una serie temporal de potencia generada por un parque eólico. Los horizontes de predicción considerados van de una a seis horas. Como primer paso, se ha elaborado una metodología para caracterizar rampas en series temporales. La denominada función-rampa está basada en la transformada wavelet y proporciona un índice en cada paso temporal. Este índice caracteriza la intensidad de rampa en base a los gradientes de potencia experimentados en un rango determinado de escalas temporales. Se han implementado tres tipos de modelos predictivos de cara a evaluar el papel que juega la complejidad de un modelo en su desempeño: modelos lineales autorregresivos (AR), modelos de coeficientes variables (VCMs) y modelos basado en redes neuronales (ANNs). Los modelos se han entrenado en base a la minimización del error cuadrático medio y la configuración de cada uno de ellos se ha determinado mediante validación cruzada. De cara a analizar la contribución del estado macroescalar de la atmósfera en la predicción de rampas, se ha propuesto una metodología que permite extraer, a partir de las salidas de modelos meteorológicos, información relevante para explicar la ocurrencia de estos eventos. La metodología se basa en el análisis de componentes principales (PCA) para la síntesis de la datos de la atmósfera y en el uso de la información mutua (MI) para estimar la dependencia no lineal entre dos señales. Esta metodología se ha aplicado a datos de reanálisis generados con un modelo de circulación general (GCM) de cara a generar variables exógenas que posteriormente se han introducido en los modelos predictivos. Los casos de estudio considerados corresponden a dos parques eólicos ubicados en España. Los resultados muestran que el modelado de la serie de potencias permitió una mejora notable con respecto al modelo predictivo de referencia (la persistencia) y que al añadir información de la macroescala se obtuvieron mejoras adicionales del mismo orden. Estas mejoras resultaron mayores para el caso de rampas de bajada. Los resultados también indican distintos grados de conexión entre la macroescala y la ocurrencia de rampas en los dos parques considerados. Abstract One of the main drawbacks of wind energy is that it exhibits intermittent generation greatly depending on environmental conditions. Wind power forecasting has proven to be an effective tool for facilitating wind power integration from both the technical and the economical perspective. Indeed, system operators and energy traders benefit from the use of forecasting techniques, because the reduction of the inherent uncertainty of wind power allows them the adoption of optimal decisions. Wind power integration imposes new challenges as higher wind penetration levels are attained. Wind power ramp forecasting is an example of such a recent topic of interest. The term ramp makes reference to a large and rapid variation (1-4 hours) observed in the wind power output of a wind farm or portfolio. Ramp events can be motivated by a broad number of meteorological processes that occur at different time/spatial scales, from the passage of large-scale frontal systems to local processes such as thunderstorms and thermally-driven flows. Ramp events may also be conditioned by features related to the wind-to-power conversion process, such as yaw misalignment, the wind turbine shut-down and the aerodynamic interaction between wind turbines of a wind farm (wake effect). This work is devoted to wind power ramp forecasting, with special focus on the connection between the global scale and ramp events observed at the wind farm level. The framework of this study is the point-forecasting approach. Time series based models were implemented for very short-term prediction, this being characterised by prediction horizons up to six hours ahead. As a first step, a methodology to characterise ramps within a wind power time series was proposed. The so-called ramp function is based on the wavelet transform and it provides a continuous index related to the ramp intensity at each time step. The underlying idea is that ramps are characterised by high power output gradients evaluated under different time scales. A number of state-of-the-art time series based models were considered, namely linear autoregressive (AR) models, varying-coefficient models (VCMs) and artificial neural networks (ANNs). This allowed us to gain insights into how the complexity of the model contributes to the accuracy of the wind power time series modelling. The models were trained in base of a mean squared error criterion and the final set-up of each model was determined through cross-validation techniques. In order to investigate the contribution of the global scale into wind power ramp forecasting, a methodological proposal to identify features in atmospheric raw data that are relevant for explaining wind power ramp events was presented. The proposed methodology is based on two techniques: principal component analysis (PCA) for atmospheric data compression and mutual information (MI) for assessing non-linear dependence between variables. The methodology was applied to reanalysis data generated with a general circulation model (GCM). This allowed for the elaboration of explanatory variables meaningful for ramp forecasting that were utilized as exogenous variables by the forecasting models. The study covered two wind farms located in Spain. All the models outperformed the reference model (the persistence) during both ramp and non-ramp situations. Adding atmospheric information had a noticeable impact on the forecasting performance, specially during ramp-down events. Results also suggested different levels of connection between the ramp occurrence at the wind farm level and the global scale.

Relevância:

40.00% 40.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Statistical machine translation (SMT) is an approach to Machine Translation (MT) that uses statistical models whose parameter estimation is based on the analysis of existing human translations (contained in bilingual corpora). From a translation student’s standpoint, this dissertation aims to explain how a phrase-based SMT system works, to determine the role of the statistical models it uses in the translation process and to assess the quality of the translations provided that system is trained with in-domain goodquality corpora. To that end, a phrase-based SMT system based on Moses has been trained and subsequently used for the English to Spanish translation of two texts related in topic to the training data. Finally, the quality of this output texts produced by the system has been assessed through a quantitative evaluation carried out with three different automatic evaluation measures and a qualitative evaluation based on the Multidimensional Quality Metrics (MQM).