Proposal for a Stabilisation Fund for the EMU. CEPS Working Document No. 385, 14 October 2013

This paper argues that it should be possible to complement Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union with an insurance-type shock absorption mechanism to increase the resilience of member countries to economic shocks and reduce output volatility. Such a mechanism would neither require the establishment of a central authority, nor would it lead to permanent transfers between countries. For this mechanism to become a reality, however, it would be necessary to overcome certain technical problems linked to the difficulty of anticipating correctly the position of an economy in the business cycle.

From stabilisation to stagnation. Viktor Yanukovych's reforms. OSW Point of View Number 32, March 2013

After winning the 2010 presidential election, Viktor Yanukovych and his government developed an ambitious and comprehensive programme of reforms across key areas of social and political life. The return to a presidential system of government created the ideal conditions for the introduction of deep reforms: it allowed Viktor Yanukovych to consolidate more power than any other Ukrainian president before him.The authorities launched an overhaul of the tax and the pension systems, and of the Ukrainian gas sector. Kyiv also completed its negotiations on an Association Agreement with the EU and on a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area. However, the reformist zeal of Ukraine’s political elite progressively diminished as the parliamentary election approached, the economy slowed down, and the polls showed a decline in support for the ruling Party of Regions. Many of the reforms still remain in the planning stages, and in many areas the government has moved backwards. Viktor Yanukovych has proved unable to make systemic changes, and has increasingly used his powers to crush political opposition in Ukraine. The outcome of the latest parliamentary elections prevents the formation of a stable parliamentary majority, which in turn, removes any chance of reform before the 2015 presidential ballot.

On the periphery of global jihad. The North Caucasus: the illusion of stabilisation. OSW Point of View Number 45, November 2014

The situation in the North Caucasus has stabilised, in comparison with previous years, mainly as regards the activity of the Islamic military underground. This is an effect of ideological changes among the militants which have led to a dilution of the Caucasian armed struggle and its marginalisation in global jihad, since top priority has been granted to the Middle Eastern front. The factors which have contributed to this stabilisation are the organisational crisis in the Caucasus Emirate and the outflux of militants to the Middle East, as well the successful ‘carrot and stick’ policy adopted by Moscow. However, the partial stabilisation in the Caucasus is inherently precarious, being a contingent outcome of the situation rather than the result of systemic change. The region’s pressing problems remain unresolved; and these problems are generating chronic instability and cauing the Caucasus to drift away from Russia in civilisational terms. An economic or political crisis in the Russian Federation may result in the conflicts in the Caucasus unfreezing, including a reactivation of the idea of Chechen independence as well as the idea of the Caucasus Emirate, which is a part of global jihad.

Paradoxes of stabilisation. Bosnia and Herzegovina from the perspective of Central Europe. OSW Report, March 2016

On 15 February 2016 Bosnia and Herzegovina applied for membership of the European Union. This was the result of the new policy strategy which the EU introduced in 2014, aimed at unblocking BiH’s integration process and encouraging local elites to accelerate the reform process. Despite a formal application to the EU, the main internal problems of BiH remain the same - local politicians focus more on the power struggle and enhancing ethnic division than on reform and this is hampering the economic development of one of the poorest countries in Europe. For these reasons this report is devoted to analysing the internal challenges to the stability, coherence and unity of the country. Special attention was also placed on examining the interest and strategies of the various international actors since they can hinder or support the reform process.

Compatibilisation and stabilisation of immiscible polymer blends by reactive processing

The main objectives of this research were to develop optimised chemical compositions and reactive processing conditions for grafting a functional monomer maleic anhydride (MA) in polypropylene (PP), ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) and mixtures of PP-EPDM, and to optimise synthetic routes for production of PP/EPDM copolymers for the purpose of compatibilisation of PP/EPDM blends. The MA-functionalisation was achieved using an internal mixer in the presence of low concentrations (less than 0.01 molar ratio) of a free radical initiator. Various methods were used to purify MA-functionalised PP and the grafting yield was determined using either FTIR or titrametry. The grafting yield of MA alone, which due to its low free-radical reactivity towards polymer macroradicals, was accompanied by severe degradation in the case of PP and crosslinking for EPDM. In the case of MA-functionalised PP/EPDM, both degradation and crosslinking occurred though not to a great extent. The use of tri-functional coagents e.g. trimethylopropane triacrylates (TRIS) with MA, led to high improvement of the grafting yield of MA on the polymers. This is almost certainly due to high free-radical activity of TRIS leading to copolymerisation of MA and TRIS which was followed by grafting of the copolymer onto the polymer backbone. In the case of PP, the use of coagent was also found to reduce the polymer degradation. PP/EPDM copolymers with optimum tensile properties were synthesised using a 'one-step' continues reactive processing procedure. This was achieved firstly by functionalisation of a mixture of PP (higher w/w ratio) and EPDM (low w/w ratio) with MA, in the presence of the coagent TRIS and a small concentration of a free radical initiator. This was then followed by an imidisation reaction with the interlinking agent hexamethylene diamine (HEMDA). Small amount of copolymers, up to 5 phr, which were interlinked with up to 15 phr of HEMDA, were sufficient to compatibilise PP/EPDM75/25 blends resulting in excellent tensile properties compared to binary PP/EPDM 75/25 blend. Improvement in blend's compatibility and phases-stabilisation (observed through tensile and SEM analysis) was shown in all cases with significant interphases adhesion improvement between PP and EPDM, and reduction in domain size across the fractured surface indicating efficient distribution of the compatibiliser.

Stabilisation of isocyanate cross linked polybutadiene binder

Isocyanate cross-linked hydroxy terminated polybutadiene is used as a binder for solid rocket propellant. Rocket motors containing this propellant require a storage life of at least 20 years. During storage it has been found that the important rubbery properties of the binder can be lost due to oxidative cross-linking of the polybutadiene chains. This could cause catastrophic failure when the rocket motor is required. At present the bis-hindered phenol Calco 2246 is used as a thermal oxidative stabiliser, but it's performance is only adequate. This has led to the search for a more efficient stabiliser system. To hasten the evaluation of new antioxidant systems the use of dynamic thermal analysis was investigated. Results showed that a tentative relationship existed between predictions by thermal analysis and the long term oven ageing for simple single antioxidant systems. But for more complex systems containing either autosynergistic or mixed antioxidants no relationship was observed suggesting that results for such an "accelerated" technique cannot be used for the purpose of extrapolation for long term performance. This was attributed to the short time and more aggressive condition used (hjgher temperature and oxygen rich atmosphere in thermal analysis) altering the mechanism of action of the antioxidants and not allowing time for co-operative effect of the combined antioxidant system to form. One potential problem for the binder system is the use of an diisocyanate as a cross-linking agent. This reacts with the hydroxyl hydrogen on the polymer as well as other active hydrogens such as those contained in a number of antioxidants, affecting both cross-linking and antioxidant effectiveness. Studies in this work showed that only antioxidants containing amine moieties have a significant affect on binder preparation, with the phenolic antioxidants not reacting. This is due to the greater nucleophilicity of the amines. Investigation of a range of antioxidant systems, including potentially homo, hetero and autosynergistic systems, has highlighted a number of systems which show considerably greater effectiveness than the currently used antioxidant Calco 2246. The only single antioxidant which showed improvement was the partially unhindered phenol y-Tocopherol. Of the mixed systems combinations of the sulphur containing antioxidants e.g. DLTP with higher levels of chain-breaking antioxidants, especially Calco 2246, were the most promising. Also the homosynergistic mix of an aromatic amine and a phenol was seen to be very effective but the results were inconsistent. This inconsistency could be explained by the method of sample preparation used. It was shown that the efficiency of a number of antioxidant.s could be dramatically improved by the use of ultrasound during the mixing stage of preparation. The reason for this increase in performance is unclear but in the case of the homosynergistic amine/phenol mix both more efficient mixing and/or the production of a novel mechanism of action are suggested

Oxidation and stabilisation chemistry of metallocene-based polyolefins during melt processing

Metallocene catalyzed linear low density polyethylene (m-LLDPE) is a new generation of olefin copolymer. Based on the more recently developed metallocene-type catalysts, m-LLDPE can be synthesized with exactly controlled short chain branches and stereo-regular microstructure. The unique properties of these polymers have led to their applications in many areas. As a result, it is important to have a good understanding of the oxidation mechanism of m-LLDPE during melt processing in order to develop more effective stabilisation systems and continue to increase the performance of the material. The primary objectives of this work were, firstly, to investigate the oxidative degradation mechanisms of m-LLDPE polymers having different comonomer (I-octene) content during melt processing. Secondly, to examine the effectiveness of some commercial antioxidants on the stabilisation of m-LLDPE melt. A Ziegler-polymerized LLDPE (z-LLDPE) based on the same comonomer was chosen and processed under the same conditions for comparison with the metallocene polymers. The LLDPE polymers were processed using an internal mixer (torque rheometer, TR) and a co-rotating twin-screw extruder (TSE). The effects of processing variables (time, temperature) on the rheological (MI, MWD, rheometry) and molecular (unsaturation type and content, carbonyl compounds, chain branching) characteristics of the processed polymers were examined. It was found that the catalyst type (metallocene or Ziegler) and comonomer content of the polymers have great impact on their oxidative degradation behavior (crosslinking or chain scission) during melt processing. The metallocene polymers mainly underwent chain scission at lower temperature (<220°C) but crosslinking became predominant at higher temperature for both TR and TSE processed polymers. Generally, the more comonomers the m-LLDPE contains, a larger extent of chain scission can be expected. In contrast, crosslinking reactions were shown to be always dominant in the case of the Ziegler LLDPE. Furthermore, it is clear that the molecular weight distribution (MWD) of all LLDPE became broader after processing and tended generally to be broader at elevated temperatures and more extrusion passes. So, it can be concluded that crosslinking and chain scission are temperature dependent and occur simultaneously as competing reactions during melt processing. Vinyl is considered to be the most important unsaturated group leading to polymer crosslinking as its concentration in all the LLDPE decreased after processing. Carbonyl compounds were produced during LLDPE melt processing and ketones were shown to be the most imp0l1ant carbonyl-containing products in all processed polymers. The carbonyl concentration generally increased with temperature and extrusion passes, and the higher carbonyl content fonned in processed z-LLDPE and m-LLDPE polymers having higher comonomer content indicates their higher susceptibility of oxidative degradation. Hindered phenol and lactone antioxidants were shown to be effective in the stabilization of m-LLDPE melt when they were singly used in TSE extrusion. The combination of hindered phenol and phosphite has synergistic effect on m-LLDPE stabilization and the phenol-phosphite-Iactone mixture imparted the polymers with good stability during extrusion, especially for m-LLDPE with higher comonomer content.