Spatio-temporal segregation and size distribution of fish assemblages as related to non-native species occurrence in the middle rio Doce Valley, MG, Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Modeling a spatially restricted distribution in the Neotropics: How the size of calibration area affects the performance of five presence-only methods

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Spatial and temporal distribution of tadpole assemblages (Amphibia, Anura) in a seasonal dry tropical forest of southeastern Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Oral distribution of Candida species and presence of oral lesions in Brazilian leprosy patients under multidrug therapy

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Assessment of Cerdocyon thous distribution in an agricultural mosaic, southeastern Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Environmental factors influencing the distribution of three species within the genus Persephona Leach, 1817 (Crustacea, Decapoda, Leucosiidae) in two regions on the northern coast of Sao Paulo State, Brazil

Patterns of spatio-temporal distribution of Brachyura are determined by the interaction among life history traits, inter and intraspecific relationships, as well as by the variation of abiotic factors. This study aimed to characterize patterns of spatio-temporal distribution of Persephona lichtensteinii, Persephona mediterranea and Persephona punctata in two regions of the northern coast of Sao Paulo State, southeastern region of Brazil. Collections were done monthly from July 2001 to June 2003 in Caraguatatuba and Ubatuba, using a shrimp fishery boat equipped with double-rig nets. The patterns of species distribution were tested by means of redundancy analysis (RDA) and generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) in relation to the recorded environmental factors (BT: bottom temperature, BS: bottom salinity, OM: organic matter and granulometry (Phi)). The most influent environmental factor over the species distribution was the Phi, and the ascendant order of influence was P. lichtensteinii, P. punctata and P. mediterranea. The greater abundance of P. mediterranea showed a conservative pattern of distribution for the genus in the sampled region. The greater occurrence of P. punctata and P. lichtensteinii, in distinct transects than those occupied by P. mediterranea, seems to be a strategy to avoid competition among congeneric species, which is related to the substratum specificity.

Comparative phylogeography of two co-distributed arctic-alpine freshwater insect species in Europe

The distribution pattern of European arctic-alpine disjunct species is of growing interest among biogeographers due to the arising variety of inferred demographic histories. In this thesis I used the co-distributed mayfly Ameletus inopinatus and the stonefly Arcynopteryx compacta as model species to investigate the European Pleistocene and Holocene history of stream-inhabiting arctic-alpine aquatic insects. I used last glacial maximum (LGM) species distribution models (SDM) to derive hypotheses on the glacial survival during the LGM and the recolonization of Fennoscandia: 1) both species potentially survived glacial cycles in periglacial, extra Mediterranean refugia, and 2) postglacial recolonization of Fennoscandia originated from these refugia. I tested these hypotheses using mitochondrial sequence (mtCOI) and species specific microsatellite data. Additionally, I used future SDM to predict the impact of climate change induced range shifts and habitat loss on the overall genetic diversity of the endangered mayfly A. inopinatus.rnI observed old lineages, deep splits, and almost complete lineage sorting of mtCOI sequences between mountain ranges. These results support the hypothesis that both species persisted in multiple periglacial extra-Mediterranean refugia in Central Europe during the LGM. However, the recolonization of Fennoscandia was very different between the two study species. For the mayfly A. inopinatus I found strong differentiation between the Fennoscandian and all other populations in sequence and microsatellite data, indicating that Fennoscandia was recolonized from an extra European refugium. High mtCOI genetic structure within Fennoscandia supports a recolonization of multiple lineages from independent refugia. However, this structure was not apparent in the microsatellite data, consistent with secondary contact without sexual incompability. In contrast, the stonefly A. compacta exhibited low genetic structure and shared mtCOI haplotypes among Fennoscandia and the Black Forest, suggesting a shared Pleistocene refugium in the periglacial tundrabelt. Again, there is incongruence with the microsatellite data, which could be explained with ancestral polymorphism or female-biased dispersal. Future SDM projects major regional habitat loss for the mayfly A. inopinatus, particularly in Central European mountain ranges. By relating these range shifts to my population genetic results, I identified conservation units primarily in Eastern Europe, that if preserved would maintain high levels of the present-day genetic diversity of A. inopinatus and continue to provide long-term suitable habitat under future climate warming scenarios.rnIn this thesis I show that despite similar present day distributions the underlying demographic histories of the study species are vastly different, which might be due to differing dispersal capabilities and niche plasticity. I present genetic, climatic, and ecological data that can be used to prioritize conservation efforts for cold-adapted freshwater insects in light of future climate change. Overall, this thesis provides a next step in filling the knowledge gap regarding molecular studies of the arctic-alpine invertebrate fauna. However, there is continued need to explore the phenomenon of arctic-alpine disjunctions to help understand the processes of range expansion, regression, and lineage diversification in Europe’s high latitude and high altitude biota.

A model-data comparison of Holocene timberline changes in the Swiss Alps reveals past and future drivers of mountain forest dynamics

Mountain vegetation is strongly affected by temperature and is expected to shift upwards with climate change. Dynamic vegetation models are often used to assess the impact of climate on vegetation and model output can be compared with paleobotanical data as a reality check. Recent paleoecological studies have revealed regional variation in the upward shift of timberlines in the Northern and Central European Alps in response to rapid warming at the Younger Dryas/Preboreal transition ca. 11700years ago, probably caused by a climatic gradient across the Alps. This contrasts with previous studies that successfully simulated the early Holocene afforestation in the (warmer) Central Alps with a chironomid-inferred temperature reconstruction from the (colder) Northern Alps. We use LandClim, a dynamic landscape vegetation model to simulate mountain forests under different temperature, soil and precipitation scenarios around Iffigsee (2065m a.s.l.) a lake in the Northwestern Swiss Alps, and compare the model output with the paleobotanical records. The model clearly overestimates the upward shift of timberline in a climate scenario that applies chironomid-inferred July-temperature anomalies to all months. However, forest establishment at 9800 cal. BP at Iffigsee is successfully simulated with lower moisture availability and monthly temperatures corrected for stronger seasonality during the early Holocene. The model-data comparison reveals a contraction in the realized niche of Abies alba due to the prominent role of anthropogenic disturbance after ca. 5000 cal. BP, which has important implications for species distribution models (SDMs) that rely on equilibrium with climate and niche stability. Under future climate projections, LandClim indicates a rapid upward shift of mountain vegetation belts by ca. 500m and treeline positions of ca. 2500m a.s.l. by the end of this century. Resulting biodiversity losses in the alpine vegetation belt might be mitigated with low-impact pastoralism to preserve species-rich alpine meadows.

Appendix 7: List of species with their distribution ranges restricted to the corresponding phytogeographical region

Understanding species distribution patterns and the corresponding environmental determinants is a crucial step in the development of effective strategies for the conservation and management of plant communities and ecosystems. Therefore, a central prerequisite is the biogeographical and macroecological analysis of factors and processes that determine contemporary, potential, as well as future geographic distribution of species. This thesis has been conducted in the framework of the BIOMAPS-BIOTA project at the Nees Institute of Biodiversity of Plants, which was funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). The study investigated patterns of plants species richness and phytogeographic regions under contemporary environmental conditions and forecasted future climate change in the area of West Africa covering five countries: Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana and Togo. Firstly, geographic patterns of vascular plant species richness have been depicted at a relatively fine spatial resolution based on the potential distribution of 3,393 species. Species richness is closely related to the steep climatic gradient existing in the region with a high concentration of species in the most humid areas in the south and decreases towards the northern drier areas. The investigation of the effectiveness of the existing network of protected areas shows an overall good coverage of species in the study area. However, the proportion of covered species is considerably lower at national extent for some countries, thus calling for more protected areas in order to cover adequately a maximum number of plants species in these countries. Secondly, based on the potential distribution range of vascular plant species, seven phytogeographic regions have been delineated that broadly reflect the vegetation zones as defined by White (1983). However notable differences to the delineation of White (1983) occur at the margins of some regions. Corresponding to a general southward shifted of all regions. And expansion of the Sahel vegetation zone is observed in the north, while the rainforest zone is decreased in the very south.This is alarming since the rainforest shelters a high number of species and a high proportion of range-restricted or endemic species, despite their relatively small extent compared to the other regions. Finally, the evaluation of the potential impact of climate change on plant species richness in the study area, results in a severe loss of future suitable habitat for up to 50% of species per grid cell, particularly in the rainforest region. Moreover, the analysis of the possible shift of phytogeographic regions shows in general a strong deterioration of the West African rainforest. In contrast the drier areas are expanding continuously, although a slight gain in species number can be observed in some particular regions. The overall lesson to retain from the results of this study is that the West African rainforest should be fixed as a high priority area for the conservation of biodiversity of plants, since it is subject to severe contemporary and projected future threats.

Using ecological niche models to support tree species selection for forest restoration planning in largely deforested regions

Species selection for forest restoration is often supported by expert knowledge on local distribution patterns of native tree species. This approach is not applicable to largely deforested regions unless enough data on pre-human tree species distribution is available. In such regions, ecological niche models may provide essential information to support species selection in the framework of forest restoration planning. In this study we used ecological niche models to predict habitat suitability for native tree species in "Tierra de Campos" region, an almost totally deforested area of the Duero Basin (Spain). Previously available models provide habitat suitability predictions for dominant native tree species, but including non-dominant tree species in the forest restoration planning may be desirable to promote biodiversity, specially in largely deforested areas were near seed sources are not expected. We used the Forest Map of Spain as species occurrence data source to maximize the number of modeled tree species. Penalized logistic regression was used to train models using climate and lithological predictors. Using model predictions a set of tools were developed to support species selection in forest restoration planning. Model predictions were used to build ordered lists of suitable species for each cell of the study area. The suitable species lists were summarized drawing maps that showed the two most suitable species for each cell. Additionally, potential distribution maps of the suitable species for the study area were drawn. For a scenario with two dominant species, the models predicted a mixed forest (Quercus ilex and a coniferous tree species) for almost one half of the study area. According to the models, 22 non-dominant native tree species are suitable for the study area, with up to six suitable species per cell. The model predictions pointed to Crataegus monogyna, Juniperus communis, J.oxycedrus and J.phoenicea as the most suitable non-dominant native tree species in the study area. Our results encourage further use of ecological niche models for forest restoration planning in largely deforested regions.

Forest connectivity restoration through reforestation: an integrated methodology for prioritizing agricultural lands and selecting reforestation species

Forest connectivity restoration is a major goal in natural resource planning. Given the high amount of abandoned cultivated lands, setting efficient methods for the reforestation of agricultural lands offers a good opportunity to face this issue. However, reforestations must be carefully planned, which poses two main challenges. In first place, to determine those agricultural lands that, once reforested, would meet more effectively the planning goals. As a further step, in order to grant the success of the activity, it is fairly advisable to select those tree species that are more adapted to each particular environment. Here we intend to give response to both requirements by proposing a sequential and integrated methodology that has been implemented in two Spanish forest districts, which are formed by several landscape types that were previously defined and characterized. Using the software Conefor Sensinode, a powerful tool for quantifying habitat availability that is based on graph theory concepts, we determined the landscapes where forest planning should have connectivity as a major concern and, afterwards, we detected the agricultural patches that would contribute most to enhance connectivity if they were reforested. The subsequent reforestation species assessment was performed within these priority patches. Using penalized logistic regressions we fitted ecological niche models for the Spanish native tree species. The models were trained with species distribution data from the Spanish Forest Map and used climatic and lithological variables as predictors. Model predictions were used to build ordered lists of suitable species for each priority patch. The lists include dominant and non dominant tree species and allow adding biodiversity goals to the reforestation planning. The result of this combined methodology is a map of agricultural patches that would contribute most to uphold forest connectivity if they were reforested and a list of suitable tree species for each patch ordered by occurrence probability. Therefore the proposed methodology may be useful for suitable and efficient forest planning and landscape designing.

On the spatial distribution of woody plant species in a tropical montane cloud forest

Abstract The cloud forest is a special type of forest ecosystem that depends on suitable conditions of humidity and temperature to exist; hence, it is a very fragile ecosystem. The cloud forest is also one of the richest ecosystems in terms of species diversity and rate of endemism. However, today, it is one of the most threatened ecosystems in the world. Little is known about tree species distribution and coexistence among cloud forest trees. Trees are essential to understanding ecosystem functioning and maintenance because they support the ecosystem in important ways. For this dissertation, an analysis of woody plant species distribution at a small scale in a north-Peruvian Andean cloud forest was performed, and some of the factors implicated in the observed patterns were identified. Towards that end, different natural factors acting on species distribution within the forest were investigated: (i) intra-specific arrangements, (ii) heterospecific spatial relationships and (iii) relationships with external environmental factors. These analyses were conducted first on standing woody plants and then on seedlings. The woody plants were found to be clumped in the forest, either considering all the species together or each species separately. However, each species presented a specific pattern and specific spatial relationship among different-age individuals. Dispersal mode, growth form and shade tolerance played roles in the final distribution of the species. Furthermore, spatial associations among species, either positive or negative, were observed. These associations were more numerous when considering individuals of the interacting species at different developmental stages, i.e., younger individuals from one species and older individuals from another. Accordingly, competition and facilitation are asymmetric processes and vary throughout the life of an individual. Moreover, some species appear to prefer certain habitat conditions and avoid other habitats. The habitat definition that best explains species distribution is that which includes both environmental and stand characteristics; thus, a combination of these factors is necessary to understanding species' niche preferences. Seedling distribution was also associated with habitat conditions, but these conditions explained less than the 30% of the spatial variation. The position of conspecific adult individuals also affected seedling distribution; although the seedlings of many tree species avoid the vicinity of conspecifics, a few species appeared to prefer the formation of cohorts around their parent trees. The importance of habitat conditions and distance dependence with conspecifics varied among regions within the forest as well as on the developmental stage of the stand. The results from this thesis suggest that different species can coexist within a given space, forming a “puzzle” of species as a result of the intra- and interspecific spatial relationships along with niche preferences and adaptations that operate at different scales. These factors not only affect each species in a different way, but specific preferences also vary throughout species' lifespans. Resumen Resumen El bosque de niebla es uno de los ecosistemas más amenazados del mundo además de ser uno de los más frágiles. Son formaciones azonales que dependen de la existencia de unas condiciones de humedad y temperatura que permitan la formación de nubes que cubran el bosque; lo que dificulta en gran medida su conservación. También es uno de los ecosistemas con mayor riqueza de especies además de tener uno de los mayores porcentajes de endemismos. Uno de los aspectos más importantes para entender el ecosistema, es identificar y entender los elementos que lo componen y los mecanismos que regulan las relaciones entre ellos. Los árboles son el soporte del ecosistema. Sin embargo, apenas hay información sobre la distribución y coexistencia de los árboles en los bosques de niebla. Esta tesis presenta un análisis de la distribución a pequeña escala de las plantas leñosas en un bosque de niebla situado en la cordillera andina del norte de Perú; así como el análisis de algunos de los factores que pueden estar implicados en que se origine la distribución observada. Para este propósito se estudia cómo influyen factores de diferente naturaleza en la distribución de las especies (i) organización intra-específica (ii) relaciones espaciales heterospecíficas y (iii) relación con factores ambientales externos. En estos análisis se estudiaron primero las plantas jóvenes y las adultas, y después las plántulas. Los árboles aparecieron agregados en el bosque, tanto considerando todos a la vez como cuando se estudió cada especie por separado. Sin embargo, cada especie mostró un patrón distinto así como una particular relación espacial entre individuos jóvenes y adultos. El modo de dispersión, la forma de vida y la tolerancia de la especies estuvieron relacionados con el patrón general observado. Se vio también que ciertas especies aparecían relacionadas con otras, tanto de forma positiva (compartiendo zonas) como negativa (apareciendo en áreas distintas). Las asociaciones fueron mucho más numerosas cuando se consideraron los pares de especies en diferente estado de desarrollo, es decir, individuos jóvenes de una especie e individuos mayores de la otra. Eso indicaría que los procesos de competencia y facilitación son asimétricos y además varían durante la vida de la planta. Por otro lado, algunas especies aparecen preferentemente bajo ciertas condiciones de hábitat y evitan otras. La definición de hábitat a la que mejor responden las especies es cuando se incluyen tanto variables ambientales como de masa; así que ambos tipos de variables son necesarias para entender la preferencia de las especies por ciertos nichos. La distribución de las plántulas también estuvo relacionada con condiciones de hábitat, pero eso sólo llegaba a explicar hasta un 30% de la variabilidad espacial. La posición de los adultos de la misma especie también afectó a la distribución de las plántulas. En bastantes especies las plántulas evitan la cercanía de adultos de su misma especie, padres potenciales, aunque algunas especies aisladas mostraron el patrón contrario y aparecieron preferentemente en las mismas áreas que sus padres. La importancia de las condiciones de hábitat y posición de los adultos en la disposición de las plántulas varía de una zona a otra del bosque y además también varía según el estado de desarrollo de la masa.

Natural regeneration in mediterranean mixed forests: effect of environmental conditions on the physiological optimum niche of the species = Regeneración natural en masas mixtas mediterráneas: efecto de las condiciones ambientales en el nicho óptimo fisiológico de las especies

Los montes Mediterráneos han experimentado múltiples cambios en las últimas décadas (tanto en clima como en usos), lo que ha conducido a variaciones en la distribución de especies. El aumento previsto de las temperaturas medias junto con la mayor variabilidad intra e inter anual en cuanto a la ocurrencia de eventos extremos o disturbios naturales (como periodos prolongados de sequía, olas de frío o calor, incendios forestales o vendavales) pueden dañar significativamente al regenerado, llevándolo hasta la muerte, y jugando un papel decisivo en la composición de especies y en la dinámica del monte. La amplitud ecológica de muchas especies forestales puede verse afectada, de forma que se esperan cambios en sus nichos actuales de regeneración. Sin embargo, la migración latitudinal de las especies en busca de mejores condiciones, podría ser una explicación demasiado simplista de un proceso mucho más complejo de interacción entre la temperatura y la precipitación, que afectaría a cada especie de un modo distinto. En este sentido tanto la capacidad de adaptación al estrés ambiental de una determinada especie, así como su habilidad para competir por los recursos limitados, podría significar variaciones dentro de una comunidad. Las características fisiológicas y morfológicas propias de cada especie se encuentran fuertemente relacionadas con el lugar donde cada una puede surgir, qué especies pueden convivir y como éstas responden a las condiciones ambientales. En este sentido, el conocimiento sobre las distintas respuestas ecofisiológicas observadas ante cambios ambientales puede ser fundamentales para la predicción de variaciones en la distribución de especies, composición de la comunidad y productividad del monte ante el cambio global. En esta tesis investigamos el grado de tolerancia y sensibilidad que cada una de las tres especies de estudio, coexistentes en el interior peninsular ibérico (Pinus pinea, Quercus ilex y Juniperus oxycedrus), muestra ante los factores abióticos de estrés típicos de la región Mediterránea. Nuestro trabajo se ha basado en la definición del nicho óptimo fisiológico para el regenerado de cada especie a través de la investigación en profundidad del efecto de la sequía, la temperatura y el ambiente lumínico. Para ello, hemos desarrollado un modelo de predicción de la tasa de asimilación de carbono que nos ha permitido identificar las condiciones óptimas ambientales donde el regenerado de cada especie podría establecerse con mayor facilidad. En apoyo a este trabajo y con la idea de estudiar el efecto de la sequía a nivel de toda la planta hemos desarrollado un experimento paralelo en invernadero. Aquí se han aplicado dos regímenes hídricos para estudiar las características fisiológicas y morfológicas de cada especie, sobre todo a nivel de raíz y crecimiento del tallo, y relacionarlas con las diferentes estrategias en el uso del agua de las especies. Por último, hemos estudiado los patrones de aclimatación y desaclimatación al frio de cada especie, identificando los periodos de sensibilidad a heladas, así como cuellos de botella donde la competencia entre especies podría surgir. A pesar de que el pino piñonero ha sido la especie objeto de la gestión de estas masas durante siglos, actualmente se encuentra en la posición más desfavorable para combatir el cambio global, presentado el nicho fisiológico más estrecho de las tres especies. La encina sin embargo, ha resultado ser la especie mejor cualificada para afrontar este cambio, seguida muy de cerca por el enebro. Nuestros resultados sugieren una posible expansión en el rango de distribución de la encina, un aumento en la presencia del enebro y una disminución progresiva del pino piñonero a medio plazo en estas masas. ABSTRACT Mediterranean forests have undergone multiple changes over the last decades (in both climate and land use), which have lead to variations in the distribution of species. The expected increase in mean annual temperature together with the greater inter and intra-annual variability in extreme events and disturbances occurrence (such as prolonged drought periods, cold or heat waves, wildfires or strong winds) can significantly damage natural regeneration, up to causing death, playing a decisive role on species composition and forest dynamics. The ecological amplitude for adaptation of many species can be affected in such a way that changes in the current regeneration niches of many species are expected. However, the forecasted poleward migration of species seeking better conditions could be an oversimplification of what is a more complex phenomenon of interactions among temperature and precipitation, that would affect different species in different ways. In this regard, either the ability to adapt to environmental stresses or to compete for limited resources of a single species in a mixed forest could lead to variations within a community. The ecophysiological and morphological traits specific to each species are strongly related to the place where each species can emerge, which species can coexist, and how they respond to environmental conditions. In this regard, the understanding of the ecophysiological responses observed against changes in environmental conditions can be essential for predicting variations in species distribution, community composition, and forest productivity in the context of global change. In this thesis we investigated the degree of tolerance and sensitivity that each of the three studied species, co-occurring in central of the Iberian Peninsula (Pinus pinea, Quercus ilex and Juniperus oxycedrus), show against the typical abiotic stress factors in the Mediterranean region. Our work is based on the optimal physiological niche for regeneration of each species through in-depth research on the effect of drought, temperature and light environment. For this purpose, we developed a model to predict the carbon assimilation rate which allows us to identify the optimal environmental conditions where regeneration from each species could establish itself more easily. To obtain a better understanding about the effect of low temperature on regeneration, we studied the acclimation and deacclimation patterns to cold of each species, identifying period of frost sensitivity, as well as bottlenecks where competition between species can arise. Finally, to support our results about the effect of water availabilty, we conducted a greenhouse experiment with a view of studying the drought effect at the whole plant level. Here, two watering regimes were applied in order to study the physiological and morphological traits of each species, mainly at the level of the root system and stem growth, and so relate them to the different water use strategies of the species. Despite the fact that stone pine has been the target species for centuries, nowadays this species is in the most unfavorable position to cope with climate change. Holm oak, however, resulted the species that is best adapted to tolerate the predicted changes, followed closely by prickly juniper. Our results suggest a feasible expansion of the distribution range in holm oak, an increase in the prickly juniper presence and a progressive decreasing of stone pine presence in the medium term in these stone pine-holm oak-prickly juniper mixed forests.

Molecules, wing pattern and distribution: an approach to species delimitation in the "loxurina group" (Lepidoptera: Lycaenidae: Penaincisalia)

The wide range of morphological variations in the “loxurina group” makes taxa identification difficult, and despite several reviews, serious taxonomical confusion remains. We make use of DNA data in conjunction with morphological appearance and available information on species distribution to delimit the boundaries of the “loxurina” group species previously established based on morphology. A fragment of 635 base pairs within the mtDNA gene cytochrome oxidase I (COI) was analysed for seven species of the “loxurina group”. Phylogenetic relationships among the included taxa were inferred using maximum parsimony and maximum likelihood methods. Penaincisalia sigsiga (Bálint et al), P. cillutincarae (Draudt), P. atymna (Hewitson) and P. loxurina (C. Felder & R. Felder) were easily delimited as the morphological, geographic and molecular data were congruent. Penaincisalia ludovica (Bálint & Wojtusiak) and P. loxurina astillero (Johnson) represent the same entity and constitute a sub-species of P. loxurina. However, incongruence among morphological, genetic, and geographic data is shown in P. chachapoya (Bálint & Wojtusiak) and P. tegulina (Bálint et al). Our results highlight that an integrative approach is needed to clarify the taxonomy of these neotropical taxa, but more genetic and geographical studies are still required.

Ensemble prediction distribution maps of macroalgae for current conditions and four climate change scenarios and high resultion bathymetry for Potter Cove, WAP, Antarctica

Species distribution models (SDM) predict species occurrence based on statistical relationships with environmental conditions. The R-package biomod2 which includes 10 different SDM techniques and 10 different evaluation methods was used in this study. Macroalgae are the main biomass producers in Potter Cove, King George Island (Isla 25 de Mayo), Antarctica, and they are sensitive to climate change factors such as suspended particulate matter (SPM). Macroalgae presence and absence data were used to test SDMs suitability and, simultaneously, to assess the environmental response of macroalgae as well as to model four scenarios of distribution shifts by varying SPM conditions due to climate change. According to the averaged evaluation scores of Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) and True scale statistics (TSS) by models, those methods based on a multitude of decision trees such as Random Forest and Classification Tree Analysis, reached the highest predictive power followed by generalized boosted models (GBM) and maximum-entropy approaches (Maxent). The final ensemble model used 135 of 200 calculated models (TSS > 0.7) and identified hard substrate and SPM as the most influencing parameters followed by distance to glacier, total organic carbon (TOC), bathymetry and slope. The climate change scenarios show an invasive reaction of the macroalgae in case of less SPM and a retreat of the macroalgae in case of higher assumed SPM values.