Exploration of diarrhoea seasonality and its drivers in China

This study investigated the diarrhoea seasonality and its potential drivers as well as potential opportunities for future diarrhoea control and prevention in China. Data on weekly infectious diarrhoea cases in 31 provinces of China from 2005 to 2012, and data on demographic and geographic characteristics, as well as climatic factors, were complied. A cosinor function combined with a Poisson regression was used to calculate the three seasonal parameters of diarrhoea in different provinces. Regression tree analysis was used to identify the predictors of diarrhoea seasonality. Diarrhoea cases in China showed a bimodal distribution. Diarrhoea in children <5 years was more likely to peak in fall-winter seasons, while diarrhoea in persons > = 5 years peaked in summer. Latitude was significantly associated with spatial pattern of diarrhoea seasonality, with peak and trough times occurring earlier at high latitudes (northern areas), and later at low latitudes (southern areas). The annual amplitudes of diarrhoea in persons > = 5 years increased with latitude (r = 0.62, P<0.001). Latitude 27.8° N and 38.65° N were the latitudinal thresholds for diarrhoea seasonality in China. Regional-specific diarrhoea control and prevention strategies may be optimal for China. More attention should be paid to diarrhoea in children <5 years during fall-winter seasons.

The vertebral venous system in healthy and scoliotic adolescent spines - a 3D MRI investigation

Introduction. The venous drainage system within vertebral bodies (VBs) has been well documented previously in cadaveric specimens. Advances in 3D imaging and image processing now allow for in vivo quantification of larger venous vessels, such as the basivertebral vein. Differences between healthy and scoliotic VB veins can therefore be investigated. Methods. 20 healthy adolescent controls and 21 AIS patients were recruited (with ethics approval) to undergo 3D MRI, using a 3 Tesla, T1-weighted 3D gradient echo sequence, resulting in 512 slices across the thoraco-lumbar spine, with a voxel size of 0.5x0.5x0.5mm. Using Amira Filament Editor, five transverse slices through the VB were examined simultaneously and the resulting observable vascular network traced. Each VB was assessed, and a vascular network recorded when observable. A local coordinate system was created in the centre of each VB and the vascular networks aligned to this. The length of the vascular network on the left and right sides (with a small central region) of the VB was calculated, and the spatial patterning of the networks assessed level-by-level within each subject. Results. An average of 6 (range 4-10) vascular networks, consistent with descriptions of the basivertebral vein, were identifiable within each subject, most commonly between T10-L1. Differences were seen in the left/right distribution of vessels in the control and AIS subjects. Healthy controls saw a percentage distribution of 29:18:53 across the left:centre:right regions respectively, whereas the AIS subjects had a slightly shifted distribution of 33:25:42. The control group showed consistent spatial patterning of the vascular networks across most levels, but this was not seen in the AIS group. Conclusion. Observation and quantification of the basivertebral vein in vivo is possible using 3D MRI. The AIS group lacked the spatial pattern repetition seen in the control group and minor differences were seen in the left/right distribution of vessels.

Variations in vertebral venous vasculature

INTRODUCTION Cadaveric studies have previously documented typical patterns of venous drainage within vertebral bodies (VBs) [1,2,3], comprised primarily of the basivertebral vein, a planar tree like structure at the mid-height of the VB. These studies, however, are limited in the number of samples available, and so have not examined any potential differences in this anatomy in conditions such as scoliosis. MRI is able to create 3D images of soft tissue structures in the spine, including the basivertebral vein without the use of contrast. As a non-invasive imaging technique this opens up the possibility of examining the venous network in multiple VBs within the same subject, in healthy controls as well as in subjects with abnormal anatomy such as adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). CONCLUSIONS High resolution MRI scans allow in vivo quantification of the vertebral venous system at multiple levels on healthy and scoliotic populations for the first time. The length of the basivertebral vein was seen to have a significant bias to the right hand side of the VB in both healthy and AIS adolescents. The spatial pattern of this vein showed large variations in branching both within and across individuals.

Territoriality and the regulation of public space in Favela Morro da Formiga, Rio de Janeiro

Public space in many communities around the world has been identified as over-regulated and devoid of social vibrancy. This research contributed new knowledge regarding the way local residents territorialise and take ownership of streets and open areas in a favela, or informal settlement, in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil. Findings showed that public spaces were only partly activated by spatial pattern or structure. User agency also played a significant role, despite recent regulatory and policing interventions in the favela. This may have important implications for new communities where design could allow for more flexible usage and thereby enhance social vibrancy.

Spatio-temporal patterns in maturation of the chokka squid (Loligo vulgaris reynaudii) off the coast of South Africa

Knowledge of the temporal and spatial characteristics of chokka squid (Loligo vulgaris reynaudii) biology in South African waters is limited, so the possibility of there being a geographically fragmented stock was examined by investigating the distribution of maturity patterns for the species, covering all known spawning areas and using both historical and recent data. Gonadosomatic indices (GSI) varied between year-round consistency and apparent seasonal peaks in both summer and winter; there was no clear spatial pattern. Monthly percentage maturity provided further evidence for two peak reproductive periods each year, although mature squid were present throughout. Sex ratios demonstrated great variability between different areas and life history stages. Male-biased sex ratios were only apparent on the inshore spawning grounds and ranged between 1.118:1 and 4.267:1. Size at sexual maturity was also seasonal, squid maturing smaller in winter/spring than in summer/autumn. Also, squid in the east matured smaller than squid in the west. Although the results from the present study do not provide conclusive evidence of distinct geographic populations, squid likely spawn over a significantly larger area of the Agulhas Bank than previously estimated, and squid on the west coast of South Africa may return to spawn on the western portion of the Agulhas Bank. It remains likely, however, that the east and west coast populations are a single stock and that migration of juveniles to the west coast and their subsequent return as sub-adults is an integral but non-essential and variable part of the life history.

Indian Ocean sea surface salinity variations in a coupled model

The variability of the sea surface salinity (SSS) in the Indian Ocean is studied using a 100-year control simulation of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM 2.0). The monsoon-driven seasonal SSS pattern in the Indian Ocean, marked by low salinity in the east and high salinity in the west, is captured by the model. The model overestimates runoff int the Bay of Bengal due to higher rainfall over the Himalayan-Tibetan regions which drain into the Bay of Bengal through Ganga-Brahmaputra rivers. The outflow of low-salinity water from the Bay of Bengal is to strong in the model. Consequently, the model Indian Ocean SSS is about 1 less than that seen in the climatology. The seasonal Indian Ocean salt balance obtained from the model is consistent with the analysis from climatological data sets. During summer, the large freshwater input into the Bay of Bengal and its redistribution decide the spatial pattern of salinity tendency. During winter, horizontal advection is the dominant contributor to the tendency term. The interannual variability of the SSS in the Indian Ocean is about five times larger than that in coupled model simulations of the North Atlantic Ocean. Regions of large interannual standard deviations are located near river mouths in the Bay of Bengal and in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Both freshwater input into the ocean and advection of this anomalous flux are responsible for the generation of these anomalies. The model simulates 20 significant Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and during IOD years large salinity anomalies appear in the equatorial Indian Ocean. The anomalies exist as two zonal bands: negative salinity anomalies to the north of the equator and positive to the south. The SSS anomalies for the years in which IOD is not present and for ENSO years are much weaker than during IOD years. Significant interannual SSS anomalies appear in the Indian Ocean only during IOD years.

Pharmacogenetic Variation at CYP2D6, CYP2C9, and CYP2C19: Population Genetic and Forensic Aspects

Pharmacogenetics deals with genetically determined variation in drug response. In this context, three phase I drug-metabolizing enzymes, CYP2D6, CYP2C9, and CYP2C19, have a central role, affecting the metabolism of about 20-30% of clinically used drugs. Since genes coding for these enzymes in human populations exhibit high genetic polymorphism, they are of major pharmacogenetic importance. The aims of this study were to develop new genotyping methods for CYP2D6, CYP2C9, and CYP2C19 that would cover the most important genetic variants altering the enzyme activity, and, for the first time, to describe the distribution of genetic variation at these loci on global and microgeographic scales. In addition, pharmacogenetics was applied to a postmortem forensic setting to elucidate the role of genetic variation in drug intoxications, focusing mainly on cases related to tricyclic antidepressants, which are commonly involved in fatal drug poisonings in Finland. Genetic variability data were obtained by genotyping new population samples by the methods developed based on PCR and multiplex single-nucleotide primer extension reaction, as well as by collecting data from the literature. Data consisted of 138, 129, and 146 population samples for CYP2D6, CYP2C9, and CYP2C19, respectively. In addition, over 200 postmortem forensic cases were examined with respect to drug and metabolite concentrations and genotypic variation at CYP2D6 and CYP2C19. The distribution of genetic variation within and among human populations was analyzed by descriptive statistics and variance analysis and by correlating the genetic and geographic distances using Mantel tests and spatial autocorrelation. The correlation between phenotypic and genotypic variation in drug metabolism observed in postmortem cases was also analyzed statistically. The genotyping methods developed proved to be informative, technically feasible, and cost-effective. Detailed molecular analysis of CYP2D6 genetic variation in a global survey of human populations revealed that the pattern of variation was similar to those of neutral genomic markers. Most of the CYP2D6 diversity was observed within populations, and the spatial pattern of variation was best described as clinal. On the other hand, genetic variants of CYP2D6, CYP2C9, and CYP2C19 associated with altered enzymatic activity could reach extremely high frequencies in certain geographic regions. Pharmacogenetic variation may also be significantly affected by population-specific demographic histories, as seen within the Finnish population. When pharmacogenetics was applied to a postmortem forensic setting, a correlation between amitriptyline metabolic ratios and genetic variation at CYP2D6 and CYP2C19 was observed in the sample material, even in the presence of confounding factors typical for these cases. In addition, a case of doxepin-related fatal poisoning was shown to be associated with a genetic defect at CYP2D6. Each of the genes studied showed a distinct variation pattern in human populations and high frequencies of altered activity variants, which may reflect the neutral evolution and/or selective pressures caused by dietary or environmental exposure. The results are relevant also from the clinical point of view since the genetic variation at CYP2D6, CYP2C9, and CYP2C19 already has a range of clinical applications, e.g. in cancer treatment and oral anticoagulation therapy. This study revealed that pharmacogenetics may also contribute valuable information to the medicolegal investigation of sudden, unexpected deaths.

Residential Differentiation, Housing Policy and Urban Planning in the Transformation from State Socialism to a Market Economy: The Case of Tallinn

The thesis examines urban issues arising from the transformation from state socialism to a market economy. The main topics are residential differentiation, i.e., uneven spatial distribution of social groups across urban residential areas, and the effects of housing policy and town planning on urban development. The case study is development in Tallinn, the capital city of Estonia, in the context of development of Central and Eastern European cities under and after socialism. The main body of the thesis consists of four separately published refereed articles. The research question that brings the articles together is how the residential (socio-spatial) pattern of cities developed during the state socialist period and how and why that pattern has changed since the transformation to a market economy began. The first article reviews the literature on residential differentiation in Budapest, Prague, Tallinn and Warsaw under state socialism from the viewpoint of the role of housing policy in the processes of residential differentiation at various stages of the socialist era. The paper shows how the socialist housing provision system produced socio-occupational residential differentiation directly and indirectly and it describes how the residential patterns of these cities developed. The second article is critical of oversimplified accounts of rapid reorganisation of the overall socio-spatial pattern of post-socialist cities and of claims that residential mobility has had a straightforward role in it. The Tallinn case study, consisting of an analysis of the distribution of socio-economic groups across eight city districts and over four housing types in 1999 as well as examining the role of residential mobility in differentiation during the 1990s, provides contrasting evidence. The third article analyses the role and effects of housing policies in Tallinn s residential differentiation. The focus is on contemporary post-privatisation housing-policy measures and their effects. The article shows that the Estonian housing policies do not even aim to reduce, prevent or slow down the harmful effects of the considerable income disparities that are manifest in housing inequality and residential differentiation. The fourth article examines the development of Tallinn s urban planning system 1991-2004 from the viewpoint of what means it has provided the city with to intervene in urban development and how the city has used these tools. The paper finds that despite some recent progress in planning, its role in guiding where and how the city actually developed has so far been limited. Tallinn s urban development is rather initiated and driven by private agents seeking profit from their investment in land. The thesis includes original empirical research in the three articles that analyse development since socialism. The second article employs quantitative data and methods, primarily index calculation, whereas the third and the fourth ones draw from a survey of policy documents combined with interviews with key informants. Keywords: residential differentiation, housing policy, urban planning, post-socialist transformation, Estonia, Tallinn

The Skill of ECMWF Medium-Range Forecasts during the Year of Tropical Convection 2008

This study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model-generated high-resolution 10-day-long predictions for the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) 2008. Precipitation forecast skills of the model over the tropics are evaluated against the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimates. It has been shown that the model was able to capture the monthly to seasonal mean features of tropical convection reasonably. Northward propagation of convective bands over the Bay of Bengal was also forecasted realistically up to 5 days in advance, including the onset phase of the monsoon during the first half of June 2008. However, large errors exist in the daily datasets especially for longer lead times over smaller domains. For shorter lead times (less than 4-5 days), forecast errors are much smaller over the oceans than over land. Moreover, the rate of increase of errors with lead time is rapid over the oceans and is confined to the regions where observed precipitation shows large day-to-day variability. It has been shown that this rapid growth of errors over the oceans is related to the spatial pattern of near-surface air temperature. This is probably due to the one-way air-sea interaction in the atmosphere-only model used for forecasting. While the prescribed surface temperature over the oceans remain realistic at shorter lead times, the pattern and hence the gradient of the surface temperature is not altered with change in atmospheric parameters at longer lead times. It has also been shown that the ECMWF model had considerable difficulties in forecasting very low and very heavy intensity of precipitation over South Asia. The model has too few grids with ``zero'' precipitation and heavy (>40 mm day(-1)) precipitation. On the other hand, drizzle-like precipitation is too frequent in the model compared to that in the TRMM datasets. Further analysis shows that a major source of error in the ECMWF precipitation forecasts is the diurnal cycle over the South Asian monsoon region. The peak intensity of precipitation in the model forecasts over land (ocean) appear about 6 (9) h earlier than that in the observations. Moreover, the amplitude of the diurnal cycle is much higher in the model forecasts compared to that in the TRMM estimates. It has been seen that the phase error of the diurnal cycle increases with forecast lead time. The error in monthly mean 3-hourly precipitation forecasts is about 2-4 times of the error in the daily mean datasets. Thus, effort should be given to improve the phase and amplitude forecast of the diurnal cycle of precipitation from the model.

Asuntopolitiikka ja vieraskielisen väestön alueellinen keskittyminen Helsingissä vuosina 1992-2005

The aim of the thesis was to study the extent of spatial concentration of immigrant population in Helsinki and to analyse the impact of housing policy on ethnic residential segregation in 1992-2005. For the purpose of the study, immigrant population was defined based on the language spoken at home. The theory of residential segregation by Andersson and Molina formed the main theoretical framework for the study. According to Andersson and Molina ethnic residential segregation results from different dynamic intra-urban migration processes. Institutionally generated migration, i.e. migration patterns generated by various housing and immigrant policies and procedures, is one of the central factors in the development of ethnic segregation. The data of the study consisted of population and housing statistics and housing and immigrant policy documents of Helsinki municipality. Spatial concentration of immigrant population was studied both at district and building levels using GIS-methods and statistical methods. The housing policy of Helsinki municipality was analysed using a method created by Musterd et al. Musterd et al. categorise two types of policy approaches to residential segregation: spatial dispersion policy and compensating policy. The housing policy of Helsinki has a strong focus on social mixing and spatial dispersion of housing stock. Ethnic segregation is regarded as a threat. The importance of ethnic communities and networks is, however, acknowledged and small-scale concentration is therefore not considered harmful. Despite the spatial dispersion policy, the immigrant population is concentrated in the eastern, north-eastern and north-western suburbs of Helsinki. The spatial pattern of concentration was formed already at the beginning of the 1990's when immigration to Finland suddenly peaked. New immigrant groups were housed in the neighbourhoods where public housing was available at the time. Housing policy, namely the location of new residential areas and public housing blocks and the policies of public housing allocation were key factors influencing the residential patterns of immigrant population in the 1990's. The immigration and refugee policies of the state have also had an impact on the development. The concentration of immigrant population has continued in the same areas in the beginning of the 2000's. Dispersion to new areas has mainly taken place within the eastern and north-eastern parts of the city or in the adjacent areas. The migration patterns of native population and the reasonably rapid changes in the housing market have emerged as new factors generating and influencing the ethnic residential segregation in Helsinki in the 2000's. Due to social mixing and spatial dispersion policies, ethnic segregation in Helsinki has so far been fairly small-scale, concentrated in particular housing blocks. The number of residential buildings with a high share of immigrant population is very modest. However, the number of such buildings has doubled between 1996-2002. The concentration of immigrant population concerns mainly the public housing sector. The difference in the level of concentration between the public housing sector and privately owned housing companies is remarkable.

Valikoiva muuttoliike Uudellamaalla

This thesis explores selective migration in Greater Helsinki region from the perspective of counterurbanisation. The aim of the study is to research whether the migration is selective by migrants age, education, income level or the rate of employment and to study any regional patterns formed by the selectivity. In the Helsinki region recent migratory developments have been shifting the areas of net migration gain away from the city of Helsinki to municipalities farther off on the former countryside. There has been discussion about Helsinki s decaying tax revenue base and whether the city s housing policy has contributed to the exodus of wealthier households. The central question of the discussion is one of selective migration: which municipalities succeed in capturing the most favourable migrants and which will lose in the competition. Selective migration means that region s in-migrants and out-migrants significantly differ from each other demographically, socially and economically. Sometimes selectivity is also understood as some individuals greater propensity to migrate than others but the proper notion for this would be differential migration. In Finnish parlance these two concepts have tended to get mixed up. The data of the study covers the total migration of the 34 municipalities of Uusimaa provinces during the years 2001 to 2003. The data was produced by Statistics Finland. Two new methods of representing the selectivity of migration as a whole were constructed during the study. Both methods look at the proportions of favourably selected migrants in regions inward and outward migrant flow. A large share in the inward flow and a small share in the outward flow is good for region s economy and demography. The first method calculates the differences of the proportions of favourably selected four migrant groups and sums the differences up. The other ranks the same proportions between regions giving value 1 to the largest proportion in inward flow and 34 to the smallest, and respectively in outward flow the smallest proportion gets value 1 and the largest 34. The total sum of the ranks or differences in proportions represents region s selectivity of migration. The results show that migration is indeed selective in the Greater Helsinki region. There also seems to be a spatial pattern centred around the Helsinki metropolitan region. The municipalities surrounding the four central communes are generally better of than those farther away. Not only these eight municipalities of the so called capital region benefit from the selective migration, but the favourable structure of migration extends to some of the small municipalities farther away. Some municipalities situated along the main northbound railway line are not coming through as well as other municipalities of the capital region. The selectivity of migration in Greater Helsinki region shows signs of counter-urbanisation. People look for suburban or small-town lifestyle no longer from Espoo or Vantaa, the neighbouring municipalities to Helsinki, but from the municipalities surrounding these two or even farther off. This kind of pattern in selective migration leads to unbalanced development in population structure and tax revenue base in the region. Migration to outskirts of the urban area also leads to urban sprawl and fragmentation of the urban structure: these issues have ecological implications. Selective migration should be studied more. Also the concept itself needs clearer definition and so do the methods to study the selectivity of migration.

Numerical Modelling of the Observed Diurnal Cycle of Indian Monsoon Rainfall

We have analysed the diurnal cycle of rainfall over the Indian region (10S-35N, 60E-100E) using both satellite and in-situ data, and found many interesting features associated with this fundamental, yet under-explored, mode of variability. Since there is a distinct and strong diurnal mode of variability associated with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, we evaluate the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to simulate the observed diurnal rainfall characteristics. The model (at 54km grid-spacing) is integrated for the month of July, 2006, since this period was particularly favourable for the study of diurnal cycle. We first evaluate the sensitivity of the model to the prescribed sea surface temperature (SST), by using two different SST datasets, namely, Final Analyses (FNL) and Real-time Global (RTG). It was found that with RTG SST the rainfall simulation over central India (CI) was significantly better than that with FNL. On the other hand, over the Bay of Bengal (BoB), rainfall simulated with FNL was marginally better than with RTG. However, the overall performance of RTG SST was found to be better than FNL, and hence it was used for further model simulations. Next, we investigated the role of the convective parameterization scheme on the simulation of diurnal cycle of rainfall. We found that the Kain-Fritsch (KF) scheme performs significantly better than Betts-Miller-Janjić (BMJ) and Grell-Devenyi schemes. We also studied the impact of other physical parameterizations, namely, microphysics, boundary layer, land surface, and the radiation parameterization, on the simulation of diurnal cycle of rainfall, and identified the “best” model configuration. We used this configuration of the “best” model to perform a sensitivity study on the role of various convective components used in the KF scheme. In particular, we studied the role of convective downdrafts, convective timescale, and feedback fraction, on the simulated diurnal cycle of rainfall. The “best” model simulations, in general, show a good agreement with observations. Specifically, (i) Over CI, the simulated diurnal rainfall peak is at 1430 IST, in comparison to the observed 1430-1730 IST peak; (ii) Over Western Ghats and Burmese mountains, the model simulates a diurnal rainfall peak at 1430 IST, as opposed to the observed peak of 1430-1730 IST; (iii) Over Sumatra, both model and observations show a diurnal peak at 1730 IST; (iv) The observed southward propagating diurnal rainfall bands over BoB are weakly simulated by WRF. Besides the diurnal cycle of rainfall, the mean spatial pattern of total rainfall and its partitioning between the convective and stratiform components, are also well simulated. The “best” model configuration was used to conduct two nested simulations with one-way, three-level nesting (54-18-6km) over CI and BoB. While, the 54km and 18km simulations were conducted for the whole of July, 2006, the 6km simulation was carried out for the period 18 - 24 July, 2006. The results of our coarse- and fine-scale numerical simulations of the diurnal cycle of monsoon rainfall will be discussed.

Mechanisms of summer intraseasonal sea surface temperature oscillations in the Bay of Bengal

Intraseasonal variations (ISV) of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is highest in its northwestern part. An Indian Ocean model forced by QuikSCAT winds and climatological river discharge (QR run) reproduces ISV of SST, albeit with weaker magnitude. Air-sea fluxes, in the presence of a shallow mixed layer, efficiently effect intraseasonal SST fluctuations. Warming during intraseasonal events is smaller (<1°C) for June - July period and larger (1.5° to 2°C) during September, the latter due to a thinner mixed layer. To examine the effect of salinity on ISV, the model was run by artificially increasing the salinity (NORR run) and by decreasing it (MAHA10 run). In NORR, both rainfall and river discharge were switched off and in MAHA10 the discharge by river Mahanadi was increased tenfold. The spatial pattern of ISV as well as its periodicity was similar in QR, NORR and MAHA10. The ISV was stronger in NORR and weaker in MAHA10, compared to QR. In NORR, both intraseasonal warming and cooling were higher than in QR, the former due to reduced air-sea heat loss as the mean SST was lower, and the latter due to enhanced subsurface processes resulting from weaker stratification. In MAHA10, both warming and cooling were lower than in QR, the former due to higher air-sea heat loss owing to higher mean SST, and the latter due to weak subsurface processes resulting from stronger stratification. These model experiments suggest that salinity effects are crucial in determining amplitudes of intraseasonal SST variations in the BoB.

Characterisation of Landscape with Forest Fragmentation Dynamics

Land cover (LC) and land use (LU) dynamics induced by human and natural processes play a major role in global as well as regional patterns of landscapes influencing biodiversity, hydrology, ecology and climate. Changes in LC features resulting in forest fragmentations have posed direct threats to biodiversity, endangering the sustainability of ecological goods and services. Habitat fragmentation is of added concern as the residual spatial patterns mitigate or exacerbate edge effects. LU dynamics are obtained by classifying temporal remotely sensed satellite imagery of different spatial and spectral resolutions. This paper reviews five different image classification algorithms using spatio-temporal data of a temperate watershed in Himachal Pradesh, India. Gaussian Maximum Likelihood classifier was found to be apt for analysing spatial pattern at regional scale based on accuracy assessment through error matrix and ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curves. The LU information thus derived was then used to assess spatial changes from temporal data using principal component analysis and correspondence analysis based image differencing. The forest area dynamics was further studied by analysing the different types of fragmentation through forest fragmentation models. The computed forest fragmentation and landscape metrics show a decline of interior intact forests with a substantial increase in patch forest during 1972-2007.

Seed dispersal in changing landscapes

A growing understanding of the ecology of seed dispersal has so far had little influence on conservation practice, while the needs of conservation practice have had little influence on seed dispersal research. Yet seed dispersal interacts decisively with the major drivers of biodiversity change in the 21st century: habitat fragmentation, overharvesting, biological invasions, and climate change. We synthesize current knowledge of the effects these drivers have on seed dispersal to identify research gaps and to show how this information can be used to improve conservation management. The drivers, either individually, or in combination, have changed the quantity, species composition, and spatial pattern of dispersed seeds in the majority of ecosystems worldwide, with inevitable consequences for species survival in a rapidly changing world. The natural history of seed dispersal is now well-understood in a range of landscapes worldwide. Only a few generalizations that have emerged are directly applicable to conservation management, however, because they are frequently confounded by site-specific and species-specific variation. Potentially synergistic interactions between disturbances are likely to exacerbate the negative impacts, but these are rarely investigated. We recommend that the conservation status of functionally unique dispersers be revised and that the conservation target for key seed dispersers should be a population size that maintains their ecological function, rather than merely the minimum viable population. Based on our analysis of conservation needs, seed dispersal research should be carried out at larger spatial scales in heterogenous landscapes, examining the simultaneous impacts of multiple drivers on community-wide seed dispersal networks. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.