Spatial modelling and prediction on river networks: up model, down model or hybrid?

Preservation of rivers and water resources is crucial in most environmental policies and many efforts are made to assess water quality. Environmental monitoring of large river networks are based on measurement stations. Compared to the total length of river networks, their number is often limited and there is a need to extend environmental variables that are measured locally to the whole river network. The objective of this paper is to propose several relevant geostatistical models for river modeling. These models use river distance and are based on two contrasting assumptions about dependency along a river network. Inference using maximum likelihood, model selection criterion and prediction by kriging are then developed. We illustrate our approach on two variables that differ by their distributional and spatial characteristics: summer water temperature and nitrate concentration. The data come from 141 to 187 monitoring stations in a network on a large river located in the Northeast of France that is more than 5000 km long and includes Meuse and Moselle basins. We first evaluated different spatial models and then gave prediction maps and error variance maps for the whole stream network.

Integration of spatial and temporal models to predict extreme water table depths

The objective of this work was to evaluate extreme water table depths in a watershed, using methods for geographical spatial data analysis. Groundwater spatio-temporal dynamics was evaluated in an outcrop of the Guarani Aquifer System. Water table depths were estimated from monitoring of water levels in 23 piezometers and time series modeling available from April 2004 to April 2011. For generation of spatial scenarios, geostatistical techniques were used, which incorporated into the prediction ancillary information related to the geomorphological patterns of the watershed, using a digital elevation model. This procedure improved estimates, due to the high correlation between water levels and elevation, and aggregated physical sense to predictions. The scenarios showed differences regarding the extreme levels - too deep or too shallow ones - and can subsidize water planning, efficient water use, and sustainable water management in the watershed.

Species Distribution Modeling for Conservation Purposes

Species distribution models (SDMs) can be useful for different conservation purposes. We discuss the importance of fitting spatial scale and using current records and relevant predictors aiming conservation. We choose jaguar (Panthera onca) as a target species and Brazil and Atlantic Forest biome as study areas. We tested two different extents (continent and biome) and resolutions (similar to 4 Km and similar to 1 Km) in Maxent with 186 records and 11 predictors (bioclimatic, elevation, land-use and landscape structure). All models presented satisfactory AUC values (>0.70) and low omission errors (<23%). SDMs were scale-sensitive as the use of reduced extent implied in significant gains to model performance generating more constrained and real predictive distribution maps. Continental-scale models performed poorly in predicting potential current jaguar distribution, but they reached the historic distribution. Specificity increased significantly from coarse to finer-scale models due to the reduction of overprediction. The variability of environmental space (E-space) differed for most of climatic variables between continental and biome-scale and the representation of the E-space by predictors differed significantly (t = 2.42, g.I. = 9, P < 0.05). Refining spatial scale, incorporating landscape variables and improving the quality of biological data are essential for improving model prediction for conservation purposes.

The assessment of change in rural landscape and the analysis of the driving forces. Proposal of a spatial model for the rural built environment

The presented study carried out an analysis on rural landscape changes. In particular the study focuses on the understanding of driving forces acting on the rural built environment using a statistical spatial model implemented through GIS techniques. It is well known that the study of landscape changes is essential for a conscious decision making in land planning. From a bibliography review results a general lack of studies dealing with the modeling of rural built environment and hence a theoretical modelling approach for such purpose is needed. The advancement in technology and modernity in building construction and agriculture have gradually changed the rural built environment. In addition, the phenomenon of urbanization of a determined the construction of new volumes that occurred beside abandoned or derelict rural buildings. Consequently there are two types of transformation dynamics affecting mainly the rural built environment that can be observed: the conversion of rural buildings and the increasing of building numbers. It is the specific aim of the presented study to propose a methodology for the development of a spatial model that allows the identification of driving forces that acted on the behaviours of the building allocation. In fact one of the most concerning dynamic nowadays is related to an irrational expansion of buildings sprawl across landscape. The proposed methodology is composed by some conceptual steps that cover different aspects related to the development of a spatial model: the selection of a response variable that better describe the phenomenon under study, the identification of possible driving forces, the sampling methodology concerning the collection of data, the most suitable algorithm to be adopted in relation to statistical theory and method used, the calibration process and evaluation of the model. A different combination of factors in various parts of the territory generated favourable or less favourable conditions for the building allocation and the existence of buildings represents the evidence of such optimum. Conversely the absence of buildings expresses a combination of agents which is not suitable for building allocation. Presence or absence of buildings can be adopted as indicators of such driving conditions, since they represent the expression of the action of driving forces in the land suitability sorting process. The existence of correlation between site selection and hypothetical driving forces, evaluated by means of modeling techniques, provides an evidence of which driving forces are involved in the allocation dynamic and an insight on their level of influence into the process. GIS software by means of spatial analysis tools allows to associate the concept of presence and absence with point futures generating a point process. Presence or absence of buildings at some site locations represent the expression of these driving factors interaction. In case of presences, points represent locations of real existing buildings, conversely absences represent locations were buildings are not existent and so they are generated by a stochastic mechanism. Possible driving forces are selected and the existence of a causal relationship with building allocations is assessed through a spatial model. The adoption of empirical statistical models provides a mechanism for the explanatory variable analysis and for the identification of key driving variables behind the site selection process for new building allocation. The model developed by following the methodology is applied to a case study to test the validity of the methodology. In particular the study area for the testing of the methodology is represented by the New District of Imola characterized by a prevailing agricultural production vocation and were transformation dynamic intensively occurred. The development of the model involved the identification of predictive variables (related to geomorphologic, socio-economic, structural and infrastructural systems of landscape) capable of representing the driving forces responsible for landscape changes.. The calibration of the model is carried out referring to spatial data regarding the periurban and rural area of the study area within the 1975-2005 time period by means of Generalised linear model. The resulting output from the model fit is continuous grid surface where cells assume values ranged from 0 to 1 of probability of building occurrences along the rural and periurban area of the study area. Hence the response variable assesses the changes in the rural built environment occurred in such time interval and is correlated to the selected explanatory variables by means of a generalized linear model using logistic regression. Comparing the probability map obtained from the model to the actual rural building distribution in 2005, the interpretation capability of the model can be evaluated. The proposed model can be also applied to the interpretation of trends which occurred in other study areas, and also referring to different time intervals, depending on the availability of data. The use of suitable data in terms of time, information, and spatial resolution and the costs related to data acquisition, pre-processing, and survey are among the most critical aspects of model implementation. Future in-depth studies can focus on using the proposed model to predict short/medium-range future scenarios for the rural built environment distribution in the study area. In order to predict future scenarios it is necessary to assume that the driving forces do not change and that their levels of influence within the model are not far from those assessed for the time interval used for the calibration.

An New Energetic Approach to the Modeling of Human Joint Kinematics: Application to the Ankle

The objective of this dissertation is to develop and test a predictive model for the passive kinematics of human joints based on the energy minimization principle. To pursue this goal, the tibio-talar joint is chosen as a reference joint, for the reduced number of bones involved and its simplicity, if compared with other sinovial joints such as the knee or the wrist. Starting from the knowledge of the articular surface shapes, the spatial trajectory of passive motion is obtained as the envelop of joint configurations that maximize the surfaces congruence. An increase in joint congruence corresponds to an improved capability of distributing an applied load, allowing the joint to attain a better strength with less material. Thus, joint congruence maximization is a simple geometric way to capture the idea of joint energy minimization. The results obtained are validated against in vitro measured trajectories. Preliminary comparison provide strong support for the predictions of the theoretical model.

Modeling and simulation of a synthetic genetic circuit that implements a multicelled behavior in a growing microcolony of E. coli

Synthetic Biology is a relatively new discipline, born at the beginning of the New Millennium, that brings the typical engineering approach (abstraction, modularity and standardization) to biotechnology. These principles aim to tame the extreme complexity of the various components and aid the construction of artificial biological systems with specific functions, usually by means of synthetic genetic circuits implemented in bacteria or simple eukaryotes like yeast. The cell becomes a programmable machine and its low-level programming language is made of strings of DNA. This work was performed in collaboration with researchers of the Department of Electrical Engineering of the University of Washington in Seattle and also with a student of the Corso di Laurea Magistrale in Ingegneria Biomedica at the University of Bologna: Marilisa Cortesi. During the collaboration I contributed to a Synthetic Biology project already started in the Klavins Laboratory. In particular, I modeled and subsequently simulated a synthetic genetic circuit that was ideated for the implementation of a multicelled behavior in a growing bacterial microcolony. In the first chapter the foundations of molecular biology are introduced: structure of the nucleic acids, transcription, translation and methods to regulate gene expression. An introduction to Synthetic Biology completes the section. In the second chapter is described the synthetic genetic circuit that was conceived to make spontaneously emerge, from an isogenic microcolony of bacteria, two different groups of cells, termed leaders and followers. The circuit exploits the intrinsic stochasticity of gene expression and intercellular communication via small molecules to break the symmetry in the phenotype of the microcolony. The four modules of the circuit (coin flipper, sender, receiver and follower) and their interactions are then illustrated. In the third chapter is derived the mathematical representation of the various components of the circuit and the several simplifying assumptions are made explicit. Transcription and translation are modeled as a single step and gene expression is function of the intracellular concentration of the various transcription factors that act on the different promoters of the circuit. A list of the various parameters and a justification for their value closes the chapter. In the fourth chapter are described the main characteristics of the gro simulation environment, developed by the Self Organizing Systems Laboratory of the University of Washington. Then, a sensitivity analysis performed to pinpoint the desirable characteristics of the various genetic components is detailed. The sensitivity analysis makes use of a cost function that is based on the fraction of cells in each one of the different possible states at the end of the simulation and the wanted outcome. Thanks to a particular kind of scatter plot, the parameters are ranked. Starting from an initial condition in which all the parameters assume their nominal value, the ranking suggest which parameter to tune in order to reach the goal. Obtaining a microcolony in which almost all the cells are in the follower state and only a few in the leader state seems to be the most difficult task. A small number of leader cells struggle to produce enough signal to turn the rest of the microcolony in the follower state. It is possible to obtain a microcolony in which the majority of cells are followers by increasing as much as possible the production of signal. Reaching the goal of a microcolony that is split in half between leaders and followers is comparatively easy. The best strategy seems to be increasing slightly the production of the enzyme. To end up with a majority of leaders, instead, it is advisable to increase the basal expression of the coin flipper module. At the end of the chapter, a possible future application of the leader election circuit, the spontaneous formation of spatial patterns in a microcolony, is modeled with the finite state machine formalism. The gro simulations provide insights into the genetic components that are needed to implement the behavior. In particular, since both the examples of pattern formation rely on a local version of Leader Election, a short-range communication system is essential. Moreover, new synthetic components that allow to reliably downregulate the growth rate in specific cells without side effects need to be developed. In the appendix are listed the gro code utilized to simulate the model of the circuit, a script in the Python programming language that was used to split the simulations on a Linux cluster and the Matlab code developed to analyze the data.

Statistical Physics and Modeling of Human Mobility

In this thesis, we extend some ideas of statistical physics to describe the properties of human mobility. By using a database containing GPS measures of individual paths (position, velocity and covered space at a spatial scale of 2 Km or a time scale of 30 sec), which includes the 2% of the private vehicles in Italy, we succeed in determining some statistical empirical laws pointing out "universal" characteristics of human mobility. Developing simple stochastic models suggesting possible explanations of the empirical observations, we are able to indicate what are the key quantities and cognitive features that are ruling individuals' mobility. To understand the features of individual dynamics, we have studied different aspects of urban mobility from a physical point of view. We discuss the implications of the Benford's law emerging from the distribution of times elapsed between successive trips. We observe how the daily travel-time budget is related with many aspects of the urban environment, and describe how the daily mobility budget is then spent. We link the scaling properties of individual mobility networks to the inhomogeneous average durations of the activities that are performed, and those of the networks describing people's common use of space with the fractional dimension of the urban territory. We study entropy measures of individual mobility patterns, showing that they carry almost the same information of the related mobility networks, but are also influenced by a hierarchy among the activities performed. We discover that Wardrop's principles are violated as drivers have only incomplete information on traffic state and therefore rely on knowledge on the average travel-times. We propose an assimilation model to solve the intrinsic scattering of GPS data on the street network, permitting the real-time reconstruction of traffic state at a urban scale.

Measurement and modeling of cloud condensation nuclei in continental air

Atmospheric aerosol particles serving as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are key elements of the hydrological cycle and climate. Knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of CCN in the atmosphere is essential to understand and describe the effects of aerosols in meteorological models. In this study, CCN properties were measured in polluted and pristine air of different continental regions, and the results were parameterized for efficient prediction of CCN concentrations.The continuous-flow CCN counter used for size-resolved measurements of CCN efficiency spectra (activation curves) was calibrated with ammonium sulfate and sodium chloride aerosols for a wide range of water vapor supersaturations (S=0.068% to 1.27%). A comprehensive uncertainty analysis showed that the instrument calibration depends strongly on the applied particle generation techniques, Köhler model calculations, and water activity parameterizations (relative deviations in S up to 25%). Laboratory experiments and a comparison with other CCN instruments confirmed the high accuracy and precision of the calibration and measurement procedures developed and applied in this study.The mean CCN number concentrations (NCCN,S) observed in polluted mega-city air and biomass burning smoke (Beijing and Pearl River Delta, China) ranged from 1000 cm−3 at S=0.068% to 16 000 cm−3 at S=1.27%, which is about two orders of magnitude higher than in pristine air at remote continental sites (Swiss Alps, Amazonian rainforest). Effective average hygroscopicity parameters, κ, describing the influence of chemical composition on the CCN activity of aerosol particles were derived from the measurement data. They varied in the range of 0.3±0.2, were size-dependent, and could be parameterized as a function of organic and inorganic aerosol mass fraction. At low S (≤0.27%), substantial portions of externally mixed CCN-inactive particles with much lower hygroscopicity were observed in polluted air (fresh soot particles with κ≈0.01). Thus, the aerosol particle mixing state needs to be known for highly accurate predictions of NCCN,S. Nevertheless, the observed CCN number concentrations could be efficiently approximated using measured aerosol particle number size distributions and a simple κ-Köhler model with a single proxy for the effective average particle hygroscopicity. The relative deviations between observations and model predictions were on average less than 20% when a constant average value of κ=0.3 was used in conjunction with variable size distribution data. With a constant average size distribution, however, the deviations increased up to 100% and more. The measurement and model results demonstrate that the aerosol particle number and size are the major predictors for the variability of the CCN concentration in continental boundary layer air, followed by particle composition and hygroscopicity as relatively minor modulators. Depending on the required and applicable level of detail, the measurement results and parameterizations presented in this study can be directly implemented in detailed process models as well as in large-scale atmospheric and climate models for efficient description of the CCN activity of atmospheric aerosols.

Computer aided design and finite element modeling to predict bulk mechanical properties of bone scaffolds using triply periodic minimal surfaces (progettazione assistita al calcolatore ed analisi con il metodo degli elementi finiti per predire il comportamento meccanico di scaffolds ossei creati con l'uso di superfici minime periodiche in tre direzioni)

The aim of Tissue Engineering is to develop biological substitutes that will restore lost morphological and functional features of diseased or damaged portions of organs. Recently computer-aided technology has received considerable attention in the area of tissue engineering and the advance of additive manufacture (AM) techniques has significantly improved control over the pore network architecture of tissue engineering scaffolds. To regenerate tissues more efficiently, an ideal scaffold should have appropriate porosity and pore structure. More sophisticated porous configurations with higher architectures of the pore network and scaffolding structures that mimic the intricate architecture and complexity of native organs and tissues are then required. This study adopts a macro-structural shape design approach to the production of open porous materials (Titanium foams), which utilizes spatial periodicity as a simple way to generate the models. From among various pore architectures which have been studied, this work simulated pore structure by triply-periodic minimal surfaces (TPMS) for the construction of tissue engineering scaffolds. TPMS are shown to be a versatile source of biomorphic scaffold design. A set of tissue scaffolds using the TPMS-based unit cell libraries was designed. TPMS-based Titanium foams were meant to be printed three dimensional with the relative predicted geometry, microstructure and consequently mechanical properties. Trough a finite element analysis (FEA) the mechanical properties of the designed scaffolds were determined in compression and analyzed in terms of their porosity and assemblies of unit cells. The purpose of this work was to investigate the mechanical performance of TPMS models trying to understand the best compromise between mechanical and geometrical requirements of the scaffolds. The intention was to predict the structural modulus in open porous materials via structural design of interconnected three-dimensional lattices, hence optimising geometrical properties. With the aid of FEA results, it is expected that the effective mechanical properties for the TPMS-based scaffold units can be used to design optimized scaffolds for tissue engineering applications. Regardless of the influence of fabrication method, it is desirable to calculate scaffold properties so that the effect of these properties on tissue regeneration may be better understood.

Rainfall spatial predictions: a two-part model and its assessment

Spatial prediction of hourly rainfall via radar calibration is addressed. The change of support problem (COSP), arising when the spatial supports of different data sources do not coincide, is faced in a non-Gaussian setting; in fact, hourly rainfall in Emilia-Romagna region, in Italy, is characterized by abundance of zero values and right-skeweness of the distribution of positive amounts. Rain gauge direct measurements on sparsely distributed locations and hourly cumulated radar grids are provided by the ARPA-SIMC Emilia-Romagna. We propose a three-stage Bayesian hierarchical model for radar calibration, exploiting rain gauges as reference measure. Rain probability and amounts are modeled via linear relationships with radar in the log scale; spatial correlated Gaussian effects capture the residual information. We employ a probit link for rainfall probability and Gamma distribution for rainfall positive amounts; the two steps are joined via a two-part semicontinuous model. Three model specifications differently addressing COSP are presented; in particular, a stochastic weighting of all radar pixels, driven by a latent Gaussian process defined on the grid, is employed. Estimation is performed via MCMC procedures implemented in C, linked to R software. Communication and evaluation of probabilistic, point and interval predictions is investigated. A non-randomized PIT histogram is proposed for correctly assessing calibration and coverage of two-part semicontinuous models. Predictions obtained with the different model specifications are evaluated via graphical tools (Reliability Plot, Sharpness Histogram, PIT Histogram, Brier Score Plot and Quantile Decomposition Plot), proper scoring rules (Brier Score, Continuous Rank Probability Score) and consistent scoring functions (Root Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Error addressing the predictive mean and median, respectively). Calibration is reached and the inclusion of neighbouring information slightly improves predictions. All specifications outperform a benchmark model with incorrelated effects, confirming the relevance of spatial correlation for modeling rainfall probability and accumulation.

Global and regional sea level variations in the recent past and future: insight from observations and modeling

This work is focused on the analysis of sea–level change (last century), based mainly on instrumental observations. During this period, individual components of sea–level change are investigated, both at global and regional scales. Some of the geophysical processes responsible for current sea-level change such as glacial isostatic adjustments and current melting terrestrial ice sources, have been modeled and compared with observations. A new value of global mean sea level change based of tide gauges observations has been independently assessed in 1.5 mm/year, using corrections for glacial isostatic adjustment obtained with different models as a criterion for the tide gauge selection. The long wavelength spatial variability of the main components of sea–level change has been investigated by means of traditional and new spectral methods. Complex non–linear trends and abrupt sea–level variations shown by tide gauges records have been addressed applying different approaches to regional case studies. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition technique has been used to analyse tide gauges records from the Adriatic Sea to ascertain the existence of cyclic sea-level variations. An Early Warning approach have been adopted to detect tipping points in sea–level records of North East Pacific and their relationship with oceanic modes. Global sea–level projections to year 2100 have been obtained by a semi-empirical approach based on the artificial neural network method. In addition, a model-based approach has been applied to the case of the Mediterranean Sea, obtaining sea-level projection to year 2050.

Kinematics of local and high-z galaxies through 3D modeling of emission-line datacubes

The kinematics is a fundamental tool to infer the dynamical structure of galaxies and to understand their formation and evolution. Spectroscopic observations of gas emission lines are often used to derive rotation curves and velocity dispersions. It is however difficult to disentangle these two quantities in low spatial-resolution data because of beam smearing. In this thesis, we present 3D-Barolo, a new software to derive the gas kinematics of disk galaxies from emission-line data-cubes. The code builds tilted-ring models in the 3D observational space and compares them with the actual data-cubes. 3D-Barolo works with data at a wide range of spatial resolutions without being affected by instrumental biases. We use 3D-Barolo to derive rotation curves and velocity dispersions of several galaxies in both the local and the high-redshift Universe. We run our code on HI observations of nearby galaxies and we compare our results with 2D traditional approaches. We show that a 3D approach to the derivation of the gas kinematics has to be preferred to a 2D approach whenever a galaxy is resolved with less than about 20 elements across the disk. We moreover analyze a sample of galaxies at z~1, observed in the H-alpha line with the KMOS/VLT spectrograph. Our 3D modeling reveals that the kinematics of these high-z systems is comparable to that of local disk galaxies, with steeply-rising rotation curves followed by a flat part and H-alpha velocity dispersions of 15-40 km/s over the whole disks. This evidence suggests that disk galaxies were already fully settled about 7-8 billion years ago. In summary, 3D-Barolo is a powerful and robust tool to separate physical and instrumental effects and to derive a reliable kinematics. The analysis of large samples of galaxies at different redshifts with 3D-Barolo will provide new insights on how galaxies assemble and evolve throughout cosmic time.

MODELING THE DYNAMICS OF AIRWAY CONSTRICTION: EFFECTS OF AGONIST TRANSPORT AND BINDING

Recent advances have revealed that during exogenous airway challenge, airway diameters can not be adequately predicted by their initial diameters. Furthermore, airway diameters can also vary greatly in time on scales shorter than a breath. In order to better understand these phenomena, we developed a multiscale model which allows us to simulate aerosol challenge in the airways during ventilation. The model incorporates agonist-receptor binding kinetics to govern the temporal response of airway smooth muscle (ASM) contraction on individual airway segments, which together with airway wall mechanics, determines local airway caliber. Global agonist transport and deposition is coupled with pressure-driven flow, linking local airway constrictions with global flow dynamics. During the course of challenge, airway constriction alters the flow pattern, redistributing agonist to less constricted regions. This results in a negative feedback which may be a protective property of the normal lung. As a consequence, repetitive challenge can cause spatial constriction patterns to evolve in time, resulting in a loss of predictability of airway diameters. Additionally, the model offers new insight into several phenomena including the intra- and inter-breath dynamics of airway constriction throughout the tree structure.

Dynamics of Spatial Game Theory Networks with Novel Modifications

Introduction: Advances in biotechnology have shed light on many biological processes. In biological networks, nodes are used to represent the function of individual entities within a system and have historically been studied in isolation. Network structure adds edges that enable communication between nodes. An emerging fieldis to combine node function and network structure to yield network function. One of the most complex networks known in biology is the neural network within the brain. Modeling neural function will require an understanding of networks, dynamics, andneurophysiology. It is with this work that modeling techniques will be developed to work at this complex intersection. Methods: Spatial game theory was developed by Nowak in the context of modeling evolutionary dynamics, or the way in which species evolve over time. Spatial game theory offers a two dimensional view of analyzingthe state of neighbors and updating based on the surroundings. Our work builds upon this foundation by studying evolutionary game theory networks with respect to neural networks. This novel concept is that neurons may adopt a particular strategy that will allow propagation of information. The strategy may therefore act as the mechanism for gating. Furthermore, the strategy of a neuron, as in a real brain, isimpacted by the strategy of its neighbors. The techniques of spatial game theory already established by Nowak are repeated to explain two basic cases and validate the implementation of code. Two novel modifications are introduced in Chapters 3 and 4 that build on this network and may reflect neural networks. Results: The introduction of two novel modifications, mutation and rewiring, in large parametricstudies resulted in dynamics that had an intermediate amount of nodes firing at any given time. Further, even small mutation rates result in different dynamics more representative of the ideal state hypothesized. Conclusions: In both modificationsto Nowak's model, the results demonstrate the network does not become locked into a particular global state of passing all information or blocking all information. It is hypothesized that normal brain function occurs within this intermediate range and that a number of diseases are the result of moving outside of this range.

Spatial Learning and Stress Response of Male Rats Prenatally Exposed to Dexamethasone

Dexamethasone is routinely administered to women at risk for a preterm birth in order to enhance fetal lung development and reduce uterine contractions. Research has demonstrated possible behavioral abnormalities in adulthood as a result of dexamethasone treatment. Using nonlinear mixed effects modeling, this study found thatprenatal dexamethasone treatment impaired spatial learning and memory of adult male Sprague-Dawley rats. Prenatal dexamethasone treatment also led to more anxiety related behaviors on Elevated Plus Maze testing 1.5 hours after a stress challenge. Because theassumptions underlying the independent samples t-test were violated, the randomization test was used to compare groups on the Elevated Plus Maze.