Synoptic preconditions for extreme flooding during the summer Asian Monsoon in the Mumbai area

The summer monsoon season is an important hydrometeorological feature of the Indian subcontinent and it has significant socioeconomic impacts. This study is aimed at understanding the processes associated with the occurrence of catastrophic flood events. The study has two novel features that add to the existing body of knowledge about the South Asian Monsoon: 1) combine traditional hydrometeorological observations (rain gauge measurements) with unconventional data (media and state historical records of reported flooding) to produce value-added century-long time-series of potential flood events, and 2) identify the larger regional synoptic conditions leading to days with flood potential in the time-series. The promise of mining unconventional data to extend hydrometeorological records is demonstrated in this study. The synoptic evolution of flooding events in the western-central coast of India and the densely populated Mumbai area are shown to correspond to active monsoon periods with embedded low-pressure centers and have far upstream influence from the western edge of the Indian Ocean basin. The coastal processes along the Arabian Peninsula where the currents interact with the continental shelf are found to be key features of extremes during the South Asian Monsoon

The effect of increased convective entrainment on Asian monsoon biases in the MetUM General Circulation Model

We demonstrate that summer precipitation biases in the South Asian monsoon domain are sensitive to increasing the convective parametrisation’s entrainment and detrainment rates in the Met Office Unified Model. We explore this sensitivity to improve our understanding of the biases and inform efforts to improve convective parametrisation. We perform novel targeted experiments in which we increase the entrainment and detrainment rates in regions of especially large precipitation bias. We use these experiments to determine whether the sensitivity at a given location is a consequence of the local change to convection or is a remote response to the change elsewhere. We find that a local change leads to different mean-state responses in comparable regions. When the entrainment and detrainment rates are increased globally, feedbacks between regions usually strengthen the local responses. We choose two regions of tropical ascent that show different mean-state responses, the western equatorial Indian Ocean and western north Pacific, and analyse them as case studies to determine the mechanisms leading to the different responses. Our results indicate that several aspects of a region’s mean-state, including moisture content, sea surface temperature and circulation, play a role in local feedbacks that determine the response to increased entrainment and detrainment.

Cut-points for waist circumference in Europids and South Asians

There is little strong evidence that currently recommended higher waist circumference cut-points for Europids compared with South Asians are associated with similar risk for type 2 diabetes. This study was designed to provide such evidence. Longitudinal studies over 5 years were conducted among 5,515 Europid and 2,214 ethnically South Asian participants. Age-standardized diabetes incidence at different levels of waist circumference and incidence difference relative to a reference value were calculated. The Youden Index was used to determine waist circumference cut-points. At currently recommended cut-points, estimated annual diabetes incidence for a 50-year-old Europid was <0.6% for both sexes, and for a 50-year-old South Asian, 5.8% for men and 2.1% for women. Annual diabetes incidence of 1% was observed for a 50 year old at a waist circumference 35–40 cm greater in Europid compared to South Asian men and women. Incidence difference between recommended cut-points and a reference value (80 cm in men, 70 cm in women) was 0.3 and 4.4% per year for Europid and South Asian men, and 0.2 and 0.8% per year for Europid and South Asian women, respectively. Waist circumference cut-points chosen using the Youden Index were shown to be dependent on obesity levels in the population. The much higher observed risk of diabetes in South Asians compared to Europids at the respective recommended waist circumference cut-points suggests that differences between them should be greater. Approaches that use the Youden Index to select waist circumference cut-points are inappropriate and should not be used for this purpose.

Central bank independence and governance in the South Asia

This paper constructs the central bank independence and governance (CBIG) index for eight South Asian countries and examines their relationship with inflation. This CBIG index is constructed following the unique model developed by Ahsan, Skully and Wickramanayake (2006). This index consists of total 26 variables; all variables together form the overall index and different sub-sets of these variables construct sub-indices (eg. legal; political; price stability objectives; exchange rate policy; monetary policy and deficit financing; and accountability and transparency).
Several countries have improved their CBIG in last fifteen years. The war torn Afghanistan have established a new central bank act in 2003 which has improved the standard of CBIG in the region. In recent time Nepal has made remarkable improvement in its ranking by allowing improved independence to its central bank. Bangladesh has taken lead in term of gradual CBIG improvement in last fifteen years. Sri Lanka, Indian and Pakistan are three countries always maintained a standard level of CBIG. Bhutan and Maldives showed less improvement among the countries. This paper also examines the statistical relationship between CBIG indices and inflation. The results indicate that there is a positive relationship between CBIG and inflation in the region which in contrary to normal expectation that inflation is one of the robust proxy of actual CBIG.

Globalized Antiquity: Uses and Perceptions of the Past in South Asia, Mesoamerica, and Europe

„Antike“ ist keine europäische Exklusivität: Das Buch zeigt, wie in Südasien, Mesoamerika und Europa je eigene Antiken konstruiert werden. In den untersuchten vorkolonialen, kolonialen und postkolonialen Zusammenhängen wird die Antike durch die zeitgenössische Geschichtspolitik stark mitbestimmt. Der Vergleich lässt die Verflechtung der Vorstellungen über die Vergangenheit zwischen „klassischer“ europäischer, indischer und mesoamerikanischer Antike von der frühen Neuzeit bis in die Gegenwart erkennen. Das Buch bietet Denkanstöße für Personen, die sich mit historisch interessierter Kulturanthropologie, kritischer Altertumswissenschaft und Globalgeschichte beschäftigen.

Asian review.

Beginning in 1895, includes the Proceedings of the East India Association.

Abnormal retinal vascular function and lipid levels in a sample of healthy UK South Asians

Background/aims To investigate ethnic differences in retinal vascular function and their relationship to traditional risk indicators for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Methods A total of 90 normoglycaemic subjects (45 South Asian (SA) and 45 age- and gender-matched white Europeans (WEs)) were recruited for the present study. Retinal vessel reactivity to flickering light was assessed by means of the dynamic retinal vessel analyser according to a modified protocol. Fasting plasma glucose, triglycerides (TG), total, LDL and HDL cholesterol were also measured in all individuals. Results SA individuals showed higher fasting triglyceride (p=0.001) and lower HDL levels (p=0.007), leading to a higher TG:HDL-C ratio (p=0.001) than age-matched WE subjects. Additionally, in SAs, the retinal arterial reaction time in response to flicker stimulation was significantly longer in the last flicker cycle than in the WEs (p=0.039), and this change correlated positively with measured plasma TG levels (r=0.60; p=0.01). No such relationship was observed in the WEs (p>0.05). Conclusion Even in the absence of overt vascular disease, in otherwise healthy SAs there are potential signs of retinal vascular function impairment that correlates with established plasma markers for CVD risk.

Lessons for African economies from Irish and East Asian industry policy

When comparisons in terms of industrial policy lessons to be learned have taken place, it has tended to be solely vis-a-vis the ‘development state’ East Asian experience. This paper broadens the analysis and considers lessons which African countries can learn from other so-called ‘tiger’ economies including Ireland and the East and South Asian countries. We recognise that the latter are indeed clearly significant as many African countries at the time of independence had economic structures and levels of income quite similar to East Asian countries, yet have grown at vastly different rates since then. Exploring why this has been the case can thus offer important insights into possibilities for industrial policy. Yet this comes with some health warnings over East Asian experience. We suggest that another important contribution can come by looking at the Irish example, given its emphasis on corporatism rather than simply relying on state direction in the operation of industrial policy. The Irish model is also more democratic in some senses and has protected workers’ rights during the development process in contrast to the often highly dirigisite East Asian model. Overall we suggest that some immediate actions are needed, notably with regard to the financial system in small African economies. Without such changes, a poorly functioning financial system will continue to keep investment at low levels. In relation to the small size of the African economies, the paper recommends regional integration and sufficient overseas development assistance (ODA) for infrastructural development. It is also critical to note that the various small African economies each face their own industrial and economic development challenges, and that a ‘one size fits all’ approach is not appropriate; rather the key is to tailor policies and systems to the unique opportunities and development challenges in each African country.

What factors influence concordance with medications? Findings from the UK Asian Diabetes study

Aims: To investigate concordance with medication, as assessed at baseline and at 1- and 2-year follow-up, and to examine factors associated with non-concordance in a UK-resident South-Asian population. Methods: Data from the UK Asian Diabetes Study were analysed. Concordance with medications was assessed and recorded at three time points during the study. Multiple logistic regression was used to investigate the factors associated with non-concordance; the associations of baseline factors with year 1 concordance and baseline plus year 1 factors with year 2 concordance. Results: Data for 403 patients from seven practices participating in the UK Asian Diabetes Study were analysed. The numbers of patients who were non-concordant were: 63 (16%) at baseline 101 (25%) at year 1; and 122 (30%) at year 2. The baseline-measured variables that were significantly associated with year 1 non-concordance included diabetes duration, history of cardiovascular disease, components of the EuroQol quality of life questionnaire, the EQ-5D score, and number of medications prescribed. In multivariable analyses, the most important determinant of year 1 non-concordance was baseline non-concordance: odds ratio 13.6 (95% confidence limits 4.7, 39.9). Number of medications prescribed for blood pressure control was also significant: odds ratio 1.8 (95% confidence limits 1.4, 2.4). Similar results were observed for year 2 non-concordance. Conclusions: Non-concordance with medications was common and more likely in people prescribed more medications. The current target-driven management of risk factor levels may lead to increasing numbers and doses of medications. Considering the high cost of medications and the implications of poor health behaviours on morbidity and mortality, further investigation of prescribing behaviours and the factors affecting patient concordance are required.

Corporate social responsibility (CSR) – insights from South Asia

Guest editorial

Constitutional legitimacy : an international ill and gap in the literature?

The central argument of this work is that “democratic constitutional legitimacy”[2] probably does not currently exist in the politics of any country internationally. This inherent problem in constitutionalism is an endemic governance problem most citizenries should be dealing with, only that we are not in a large extent doing so and haven’t been historically. This position was ascertained using a form of Beck and Grande’s (2010) cosmopolitan methodology in my doctoral thesis (which we shall return to). It is argued that every constitution is in need of considerable rethinking so as to bring its statutes in line with the interests of the plurality of individuals it oversees. Finally, this work attempts to show that research in this area of democratic constitutional legitimacy is lacking in the literature as only a few scholars presently engage the issue (namely Simone Chambers).

Meta-evaluation to improve learning, evaluation capacity development and sustainability : Findings from a participatory evaluation project in Nepal

Recent studies suggest that meta-evaluation can be valuable in developing new approaches to evaluation, building evaluation capacities, and enhancing organizational learning. These new extensions of the concept of meta-evaluation are significant, given the growing emphasis on improving the quality and effectiveness of evaluation practices in the South Asian region. Following a review of the literature, this paper presents a case study of the use of concurrent meta-evaluation in the four-year project Assessing Communication for Social Change which developed and trialled a participatory impact assessment methodology in collaboration with a development communication Non-government organization (NGO) in Nepal. Key objectives of the meta-evaluation included to: continuously develop, adapt and improve the impact assessment methodology, Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) systems and process and other project activities; identify impacts of the project; and build capacities in critical reflection and review. Our analysis indicates that this meta-evaluation was essential to understanding various constraints related to the organizational context that affected the success of the project and the development of improved M&E systems and capacities within the NGO. We identified several limitations of our meta-evaluation methods, which were balanced by the strengths of other methods. Our case study suggests that as well as assessing the quality, credibility and value of evaluation practices, meta-evaluations need to focus on important contextual issues that can have significant impacts on the outcomes of participatory evaluation projects. They include hierarchical organizational cultures, communication barriers, power/knowledge relations, and the time and resources available. Meta-evaluations also need to consider wider issues such as the sustainability of evaluation systems and approaches.

Malay Kingship in Kedah : Religion, Trade, and Society

The book probes and examines traditional sources of royal power and control, as well as indigenous socio-political systems in the Malay world. It is focused on the north-western Malaysian Sultanate of Kedah which is acknowledged as the oldest unbroken independent kingship line in the ‘Malay and Islamic world’ with 1,000 years of history. Little scholarly attention has been paid to its pre-modern history, society, religion, system of government and unique geographic situation, potentially controlling both land and sea lines of communication into the remainder of Southeast Asia. It will thus provide the first comprehensive treatment in English, or other languages, on Kedah’s pre-modern and nineteenth century historiography and can provide a foundation for comparative studies of the various Malay states which is presently lacking. The proposed book also sheds much needed light on a range of important topics in Malay history including: Kedah and the northern Melaka Straits history, colonial expansion and rivalry, Southeast Asian history and politics, interregional migration and the influence of the sea peoples or orang laut, traditional Malay socio-political and economic life, Islamic influences and the course of Thai-Malay relations. The book attempts to offer a new understanding, not only of Kedah, but of the political and cultural development of the entire Malay world and of its relationships with the broader forces in both its continental and maritime settings. It argues that Kedah does not seem to follow, and in fact, often seems to contradict what has been commonly been accepted as the “typical model” of the traditional Malay state. Thus it concludes that the ruling dynasty has historically exploited a wide range of unique environmental conditions, local traditions, global spiritual trends and economic forces to preserve and strengthen its political position. The scope and theme of book The Kedah Sultanate is the oldest unbroken independent kingship lines in the “Malay world” with 1,000 years of history, and arguably one of the oldest in the Islamic world. In this study I examine key geopolitical and spiritual attributes of Malay kingship that have traditionally cemented the ruler, the peoples, and the environment. Brief description of the primary audience for the book: There is little written in English or Malay on Kedah’s pre twentieth century history. The available sources only look at certain aspects of Kedah’s history, are outdated or are confined to a specific period often outside the scope of the book. It is therefore anticipated that the readership and market for the book includes: • Scholars of Southeast Asian history, Islam, kingship, trade. • Academics & Historians (including: Asian, Thai history, Islamic, Maritime, Persian, South Asian, Southeast Asian and Colonial) • Libraries • Students, particularly those in Malaysia (especially the states of Kedah, Perlis and Penang), Thailand and Singapore. • Universities • Scholars and students in Political Science & International Relations