Geochemical data for drilled powder samples from two fossil Porites corals from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 310

Fossil corals are unique archives of past seasonal climate variability, providing vital information about seasonal climate phenomena such as ENSO and monsoons. However, submarine diagenetic processes can potentially obscure the original climate signals and lead to false interpretations. Here we demonstrate the potential of laser ablation ICP-MS to rapidly detect secondary aragonite precipitates in fossil Porites colonies recovered by Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 310 from submerged deglacial reefs off Tahiti. High resolution (100 µm) measurements of coralline B/Ca, Mg/Ca, S/Ca, and U/Ca ratios are used to distinguish areas of pristine skeleton from those afflicted with secondary aragonite. Measurements of coralline Sr/Ca, U/Ca and oxygen isotope ratios, from areas identified as pristine, reveal that the seasonal range of sea surface temperature in the tropical south Pacific during the last deglaciation (14.7 and 11 ka) was similar to that of today.

A precipitation climatology for stations in the tropical Pacific basin : effects of ENSO /

"February 1998."

Daily weather maps.

Item 273-D-4

National whoppercropper - risk management discussion support software

It is a paradox that in a country with one of the most variable climates in the world, cropping decisions are sometimes made with limited consideration of production and resource management risks. There are significant opportunities for improved performance based on targeted information regarding risks resulting from decision options. WhopperCropper is a tool to help agricultural advisors and farmers capture these benefits and use it to add value to their intuition and experience. WhopperCropper allows probability analysis of the effects of a range of selectable crop inputs and existing resources on yield and economic outcomes. Inputs can include agronomic inputs (e.g crop type, N fertiliser rate), resources (e.g soil water at sowing), and seasonal climate forecast (SOI phase). WhopperCropper has been successfully developed and refined as a discussion-support process for decision makers and their advisers in the northern grains region of Australia. The next phase of the project will build on the current project by extending its application nationally and enhancing the resource management aspects. A commercial partner, with over 800 advisor clients nationally, will participate in the project.

Ecophysiological characteristics of Avicennia germinans and Laguncularia racemosa coexisting in a scrub mangrove forest at the Indian River Lagoon, Florida

The purpose of this work is to increase ecological understanding of Avicennia germinans L. and Laguncularia racemosa (L.) Gaertn. F. growing in hypersaline habitats with a seasonal climate. The area has a dry season (DS) with low temperature and vapour pressure deficit (vpd), and a wet season (WS) with high temperature and slightly higher vpd. Seasonal patterns in interstitial soil water salinity suggested a lack of tidal flushing in this area to remove salt along the soil profile. The soil solution sodium/potassium (Na+/K+) ratio differed slightly along the soil profile during the DS, but during the WS it was significantly higher at the soil surface. Diurnal changes in xylem osmolality between predawn (higher) and midday (lower) were observed in both species. However, A. germinans had higher xylem osmolality compared to L. racemosa. Xylem Na+/K+ suggested higher selectivity of K+ over Na+ in both species and seasons. The water relations parameters derived from pressure–volume P–V curves were relatively stable between seasons for each species. The range of water potentials (Ψ), measured in the field, was within estimated values for turgor maintenance from P–V curves. Thus the leaves of both species were osmotically adapted to maintain continued water uptake in this hypersaline mangrove environment.

Observed Teleconnections in Northern Winter: Subseasonal Evolution and Tropical Linkages

Teleconnections refer to the climate variability links between non-contiguous geographic regions, and tend to be associated with variability in both space and time of the climate’s semi-permanent circulation features. Teleconnections are well-developed in Northern winter, when they influence subseasonal-to-seasonal climate variability, notably, in surface temperature and precipitation. This work is comprised of four independent studies that improve understanding of tropical-extratropical teleconnections and their surface climate responses, subseasonal teleconnection evolution, and the utility of teleconnections in attribution of extreme climate events. After an introduction to teleconnection analysis as well as the major teleconnection patterns and associated climatic footprints manifest during Northern winter, the lagged impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on subseasonal climate variability is presented. It is found that monitoring of MJO-related velocity potential anomalies is sufficient to predict MJO impacts. These impacts include, for example, the development of significant positive temperature anomalies over the eastern United States one to three weeks following an anomalous convective dipole with enhanced (suppressed) convection centered over the Indian Ocean (western Pacific). Subseasonal teleconnection evolution is assessed with respect to the Pacific-North America (PNA) pattern and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This evolution is analyzed both in the presence and absence of MJO-related circulation anomalies. It is found that removal of the MJO results only in small shifts in the centers of action of the NAO and PNA, and that in either case there is a small but significant lag in which the NAO leads a PNA pattern of opposite phase. Barotropic vorticity analysis suggests that this relationship may result in part from excitation of Rossby waves by the NAO in the Asian waveguide. An attempt is made to elegantly differentiate between the MJO extratropical response and patterns of variability more internal to the extratropics. Analysis of upper-level streamfunction anomalies is successful in this regard, and it is suggested that this is the preferred method for the real time monitoring of tropical-extratropical teleconnections. The extreme 2013-2014 North American winter is reconstructed using teleconnection analysis, and it is found that the North Pacific Oscillation-West Pacific (NPO/WP) pattern was the leading contributor to climate anomalies over much of North America. Such attribution is cautionary given the propensity to implicate the tropics for all midlatitude climate anomalies based on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) paradigm. A recent hypothesis of such tropical influence is presented and challenged.

Experimental and diagnostic protocol for the physical component of the CMIP6 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP)

The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) aims to provide a framework for evaluating, understanding, and improving the ocean and sea-ice components of global climate and earth system models contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). OMIP addresses these aims in two complementary manners: (A) by providing an experimental protocol for global ocean/sea-ice models run with a prescribed atmospheric forcing, (B) by providing a protocol for ocean diagnostics to be saved as part of CMIP6. We focus here on the physical component of OMIP, with a companion paper (Orr et al., 2016) offering details for the inert chemistry and interactive biogeochemistry. The physical portion of the OMIP experimental protocol follows that of the interannual Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). Since 2009, CORE-I (Normal Year Forcing) and CORE-II have become the standard method to evaluate global ocean/sea-ice simulations and to examine mechanisms for forced ocean climate variability. The OMIP diagnostic protocol is relevant for any ocean model component of CMIP6, including the DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima experiments), historical simulations, FAFMIP (Flux Anomaly Forced MIP), C4MIP (Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate MIP), DAMIP (Detection and Attribution MIP), DCPP (Decadal Climate Prediction Project), ScenarioMIP (Scenario MIP), as well as the ocean-sea ice OMIP simulations. The bulk of this paper offers scientific rationale for saving these diagnostics.

OMIP contribution to CMIP6: experimental and diagnostic protocol for the physical component of the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project

The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) is an endorsed project in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). OMIP addresses CMIP6 science questions, investigating the origins and consequences of systematic model biases. It does so by providing a framework for evaluating (including assessment of systematic biases), understanding, and improving ocean, sea-ice, tracer, and biogeochemical components of climate and earth system models contributing to CMIP6. Among the WCRP Grand Challenges in climate science (GCs), OMIP primarily contributes to the regional sea level change and near-term (climate/decadal) prediction GCs. OMIP provides (a) an experimental protocol for global ocean/sea-ice models run with a prescribed atmospheric forcing; and (b) a protocol for ocean diagnostics to be saved as part of CMIP6. We focus here on the physical component of OMIP, with a companion paper (Orr et al., 2016) detailing methods for the inert chemistry and interactive biogeochemistry. The physical portion of the OMIP experimental protocol follows the interannual Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). Since 2009, CORE-I (Normal Year Forcing) and CORE-II (Interannual Forcing) have become the standard methods to evaluate global ocean/sea-ice simulations and to examine mechanisms for forced ocean climate variability. The OMIP diagnostic protocol is relevant for any ocean model component of CMIP6, including the DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima experiments), historical simulations, FAFMIP (Flux Anomaly Forced MIP), C4MIP (Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate MIP), DAMIP (Detection and Attribution MIP), DCPP (Decadal Climate Prediction Project), ScenarioMIP, HighResMIP (High Resolution MIP), as well as the ocean/sea-ice OMIP simulations.

DATA DRIVEN INTELLIGENT AGENT NETWORKS FOR ADAPTIVE MONITORING AND CONTROL

To analyze the characteristics and predict the dynamic behaviors of complex systems over time, comprehensive research to enable the development of systems that can intelligently adapt to the evolving conditions and infer new knowledge with algorithms that are not predesigned is crucially needed. This dissertation research studies the integration of the techniques and methodologies resulted from the fields of pattern recognition, intelligent agents, artificial immune systems, and distributed computing platforms, to create technologies that can more accurately describe and control the dynamics of real-world complex systems. The need for such technologies is emerging in manufacturing, transportation, hazard mitigation, weather and climate prediction, homeland security, and emergency response. Motivated by the ability of mobile agents to dynamically incorporate additional computational and control algorithms into executing applications, mobile agent technology is employed in this research for the adaptive sensing and monitoring in a wireless sensor network. Mobile agents are software components that can travel from one computing platform to another in a network and carry programs and data states that are needed for performing the assigned tasks. To support the generation, migration, communication, and management of mobile monitoring agents, an embeddable mobile agent system (Mobile-C) is integrated with sensor nodes. Mobile monitoring agents visit distributed sensor nodes, read real-time sensor data, and perform anomaly detection using the equipped pattern recognition algorithms. The optimal control of agents is achieved by mimicking the adaptive immune response and the application of multi-objective optimization algorithms. The mobile agent approach provides potential to reduce the communication load and energy consumption in monitoring networks. The major research work of this dissertation project includes: (1) studying effective feature extraction methods for time series measurement data; (2) investigating the impact of the feature extraction methods and dissimilarity measures on the performance of pattern recognition; (3) researching the effects of environmental factors on the performance of pattern recognition; (4) integrating an embeddable mobile agent system with wireless sensor nodes; (5) optimizing agent generation and distribution using artificial immune system concept and multi-objective algorithms; (6) applying mobile agent technology and pattern recognition algorithms for adaptive structural health monitoring and driving cycle pattern recognition; (7) developing a web-based monitoring network to enable the visualization and analysis of real-time sensor data remotely. Techniques and algorithms developed in this dissertation project will contribute to research advances in networked distributed systems operating under changing environments.

Collaboration of the weather and climate communities to advance subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction

The World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) have identified collaborations and scientific priorities to accelerate advances in analysis and prediction at subseasonal-to-seasonal time scales, which include i) advancing knowledge of mesoscale–planetary-scale interactions and their prediction; ii) developing high-resolution global–regional climate simulations, with advanced representation of physical processes, to improve the predictive skill of subseasonal and seasonal variability of high-impact events, such as seasonal droughts and floods, blocking, and tropical and extratropical cyclones; iii) contributing to the improvement of data assimilation methods for monitoring and predicting used in coupled ocean–atmosphere–land and Earth system models; and iv) developing and transferring diagnostic and prognostic information tailored to socioeconomic decision making. The document puts forward specific underpinning research, linkage, and requirements necessary to achieve the goals of the proposed collaboration.

Interdecadal changes on the seasonal prediction of the western North Pacific summer climate around the late 1970s and early 1990s

Identifying predictability and the corresponding sources for the western North Pacific (WNP) summer climate in the case of non-stationary teleconnections during recent decades benefits for further improvements of long-range prediction on the WNP and East Asian summers. In the past few decades, pronounced increases on the summer sea surface temperature (SST) and associated interannual variability are observed over the tropical Indian Ocean and eastern Pacific around the late 1970s and over the Maritime Continent and western–central Pacific around the early 1990s. These increases are associated with significant enhancements of the interannual variability for the lower-tropospheric wind over the WNP. In this study, we further assess interdecadal changes on the seasonal prediction of the WNP summer anomalies, using May-start retrospective forecasts from the ENSEMBLES multi-model project in the period 1960–2005. It is found that prediction of the WNP summer anomalies exhibits an interdecadal shift with higher prediction skills since the late 1970s, particularly after the early 1990s. Improvements of the prediction skills for SSTs after the late 1970s are mainly found around tropical Indian Ocean and the WNP. The better prediction of the WNP after the late 1970s may arise mainly from the improvement of the SST prediction around the tropical eastern Indian Ocean. The close teleconnections between the tropical eastern Indian Ocean and WNP summer variability work both in the model predictions and observations. After the early 1990s, on the other hand, the improvements are detected mainly around the South China Sea and Philippines for the lower-tropospheric zonal wind and precipitation anomalies, associating with a better description of the SST anomalies around the Maritime Continent. A dipole SST pattern over the Maritime Continent and the central equatorial Pacific Ocean is closely related to the WNP summer anomalies after the early 1990s. This teleconnection mode is quite predictable, which is realistically reproduced by the models, presenting more predictable signals to the WNP summer climate after the early 1990s.