Monetary policy rules and estimated reaction functions for the European Central Bank

This thesis studies the interest-rate policy of the ECB by estimating monetary policy rules using real-time data and central bank forecasts. The aim of the estimations is to try to characterize a decade of common monetary policy and to look at how different models perform at this task.The estimated rules include: contemporary Taylor rules, forward-looking Taylor rules, nonlinearrules and forecast-based rules. The nonlinear models allow for the possibility of zone-like preferences and an asymmetric response to key variables. The models therefore encompass the most popular sub-group of simple models used for policy analysis as well as the more unusual non-linear approach. In addition to the empirical work, this thesis also contains a more general discussion of monetary policy rules mostly from a New Keynesian perspective. This discussion includes an overview of some notable related studies, optimal policy, policy gradualism and several other related subjects. The regression estimations are performed with either least squares or the generalized method of moments depending on the requirements of the estimations. The estimations use data from both the Euro Area Real-Time Database and the central bank forecasts published in ECB Monthly Bulletins. These data sources represent some of the best data that is available for this kind of analysis. The main results of this thesis are that forward-looking behavior appears highly prevalent, but that standard forward-looking Taylor rules offer only ambivalent results with regard to inflation. Nonlinear models are shown to work, but on the other hand do not have a strong rationale over a simpler linear formulation. However, the forecasts appear to be highly useful in characterizing policy and may offer the most accurate depiction of a predominantly forward-looking central bank. In particular the inflation response appears much stronger while the output response becomes highly forward-looking as well.

Ising pyrochlore magnets: Low-temperature properties, "ice rules," and beyond

Pyrochlore magnets are candidates for what Harris et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 79, 2554 (1997)] call "spin-ice" behavior. We present theoretical simulations of relevance for the pyrochlore family R2Ti2O7 (R = rare earth) supported by magnetothermal measurements on selected systems. Ey considering long-ranged dipole-dipole as well as short-ranged superexchange interactions, we get three distinct behaviors: (i) an ordered doubly degenerate state, (ii) a highly disordered state with a broad transition to paramagnetism, and (iii) a partially ordered state with a sharp transition to paramagnetism. Closely corresponding behavior is seen in the real compounds.

Shear sum rules at finite chemical potential

We derive sum rules which constrain the spectral density corresponding to the retarded propagator of the T-xy component of the stress tensor for three gravitational duals. The shear sum rule is obtained for the gravitational dual of the N = 4 Yang-Mills, theory of the M2-branes and M5-branes all at finite chemical potential. We show that at finite chemical potential there are additional terms in the sum rule which involve the chemical potential. These modifications are shown to be due to the presence of scalars in the operator product expansion of the stress tensor which have non-trivial vacuum expectation values at finite chemical potential.

Reducing convergence times of self-propelled swarms via modified nearest neighbor rules

Vicsek et al. proposed a biologically inspired model of self-propelled particles, which is now commonly referred to as the Vicsek model. Recently, attention has been directed at modifying the Vicsek model so as to improve convergence properties. In this paper, we propose two modification of the Vicsek model which leads to significant improvements in convergence times. The modifications involve an additional term in the heading update rule which depends only on the current or the past states of the particle's neighbors. The variation in convergence properties as the parameters of these modified versions are changed are closely investigated. It is found that in both cases, there exists an optimal value of the parameter which reduces convergence times significantly and the system undergoes a phase transition as the value of the parameter is increased beyond this optimal value. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sum rules and three point functions

Sum rules constraining the R-current spectral densities are derived holographically for the case of D3-branes, M2-branes and M5-branes all at finite chemical potentials. In each of the cases the sum rule relates a certain integral of the spectral density over the frequency to terms which depend both on long distance physics, hydrodynamics and short distance physics of the theory. The terms which which depend on the short distance physics result from the presence of certain chiral primaries in the OPE of two it-currents which are turned on at finite chemical potential. Since these sum rules contain information of the OPE they provide an alternate method to obtain the structure constants of the two R-currents and the chiral primary. As a consistency check we show that the 3 point function derived from the sum rule precisely matches with that obtained using Witten diagrams.

Spectral moment sum rules for the retarded Green's function and self-energy of the inhomogeneous Bose-Hubbard model in equilibrium and nonequilibrium

We derive exact expressions for the zeroth and the first three spectral moment sum rules for the retarded Green's function and for the zeroth and the first spectral moment sum rules for the retarded self-energy of the inhomogeneous Bose-Hubbard model in nonequilibrium, when the local on-site repulsion and the chemical potential are time-dependent, and in the presence of an external time-dependent electromagnetic field. We also evaluate these expressions for the homogeneous case in equilibrium, where all time dependence and external fields vanish. Unlike similar sum rules for the Fermi-Hubbard model, in the Bose-Hubbard model case, the sum rules often depend on expectation values that cannot be determined simply from parameters in the Hamiltonian like the interaction strength and chemical potential but require knowledge of equal-time many-body expectation values from some other source. We show how one can approximately evaluate these expectation values for the Mott-insulating phase in a systematic strong-coupling expansion in powers of the hopping divided by the interaction. We compare the exact moment relations to the calculated moments of spectral functions determined from a variety of different numerical approximations and use them to benchmark their accuracy. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevA.87.013628

Novel Relay Selection Rules for Average Interference-Constrained Cognitive AF Relay Networks

Cooperative relaying combined with selection exploits spatial diversity to significantly improve the performance of interference-constrained secondary users in an underlay cognitive radio (CR) network. However, unlike conventional relaying, the state of the links between the relay and the primary receiver affects the choice of the relay. Further, while the optimal amplify-and-forward (AF) relay selection rule for underlay CR is well understood for the peak interference-constraint, this is not so for the less conservative average interference constraint. For the latter, we present three novel AF relay selection (RS) rules, namely, symbol error probability (SEP)-optimal, inverse-of-affine (IOA), and linear rules. We analyze the SEPs of the IOA and linear rules and also develop a novel, accurate approximation technique for analyzing the performance of AF relays. Extensive numerical results show that all the three rules outperform several RS rules proposed in the literature and generalize the conventional AF RS rule.

Renormalization group invariants and sum rules in the deflected mirage mediation supersymmetry breaking

We examine the deflected mirage mediation supersymmetry breaking (DMMSB) scenario, which combines three supersymmetry breaking scenarios, namely anomaly mediation, gravity mediation and gauge mediation using the one-loop renormalization group invariants (RGIs). We examine the effects on the RGIs at the threshold where the gauge messengers emerge, and derive the supersymmetry breaking parameters in terms of the RGIs. We further discuss whether the supersymmetry breaking mediation mechanism can be determined using a limited set of invariants, and derive sum rules valid for DMMSB below the gauge messenger scale. In addition we examine the implications of the measured Higgs mass for the DMMSB spectrum.

The Importance of Stock Market Returns in Estimated Monetary Policy Rules: a Structural Approach

This paper estimates a standard version of the New Keynesian Monetary (NKM) model augmented with financial variables in order to analyze the relative importance of stock market returns and term spread in the estimated U.S. monetary policy rule. The estimation procedure implemented is a classical structural method based on the indirect inference principle. The empirical results show that the Fed seems to respond to the macroeconomic outlook and to the stock market return but does not seem to respond to the term spread. Moreover, policy inertia and persistent policy shocks are also significant features of the estimated policy rule.

On the strategic equivalence of multiple-choice test scoring rules

A disadvantage of multiple-choice tests is that students have incentives to guess. To discourage guessing, it is common to use scoring rules that either penalize wrong answers or reward omissions. These scoring rules are considered equivalent in psychometrics, although experimental evidence has not always been consistent with this claim. We model students' decisions and show, first, that equivalence holds only under risk neutrality and, second, that the two rules can be modified so that they become equivalent even under risk aversion. This paper presents the results of a field experiment in which we analyze the decisions of subjects taking multiple-choice exams. The evidence suggests that differences between scoring rules are due to risk aversion as theory predicts. We also find that the number of omitted items depends on the scoring rule, knowledge, gender and other covariates.

Union Formation and Bargaining Rules in the Labor Market

This paper analyzes union formation in a model of bargaining between a firm and several unions. We address two questions: first, the optimal configuration of unions (their number and size) and, second, the impact of the bargaining pattern (simultaneous or sequential). For workers, grouping into several unions works as a price discrimination device which, at the same time, decreases their market power. The analysis shows that optimal union configuration depends on the rules that regulate the bargaining process (monopoly union, Nash bargaining or right to manage).

Consumption and portfolio rules whit stochastic hyperbolic discounting

We extend the classic Merton (1969, 1971) problem that investigates the joint consumption-savings and portfolio-selection problem under capital risk by assuming sophisticated but time-inconsistent agents. We introduce stochastic hyperbolic preferences as in Harris and Laibson (2013) and find closed-form solutions for Merton's optimal consumption and portfolio selection problem in continuous time. We find that the portfolio rule remains identical to the time-consistent solution with power utility and no borrowing constraints. However,the marginal propensity to consume out of wealth is unambiguously greater than the time-consistent, exponential case and,importantly, it is also more responsive to changes in risk. These results suggest that hyperbolic discounting with sophisticated agents offers promise for contributing to explaining important aspects of asset market data.