Alleles that increase risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus are not associated with increased risk for Alzheimer's disease

Although epidemiological studies suggest that type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) increases the risk of late-onset Alzheimer's disease (LOAD), the biological basis of this relationship is not well understood. The aim of this study was to examine the genetic comorbidity between the 2 disorders and to investigate whether genetic liability to T2DM, estimated by a genotype risk scores based on T2DM associated loci, is associated with increased risk of LOAD. This study was performed in 2 stages. In stage 1, we combined genotypes for the top 15 T2DM-associated polymorphisms drawn from approximately 3000 individuals (1349 cases and 1351 control subjects) with extracted and/or imputed data from 6 genome-wide studies (>10,000 individuals; 4507 cases, 2183 controls, 4989 population controls) to form a genotype risk score and examined if this was associated with increased LOAD risk in a combined meta-analysis. In stage 2, we investigated the association of LOAD with an expanded T2DM score made of 45 well-established variants drawn from the 6 genome-wide studies. Results were combined in a meta-analysis. Both stage 1 and stage 2 T2DM risk scores were not associated with LOAD risk (odds ratio = 0.988; 95% confidence interval, 0.972-1.004; p = 0.144 and odds ratio = 0.993; 95% confidence interval, 0.983-1.003; p = 0.149 per allele, respectively). Contrary to expectation, genotype risk scores based on established T2DM candidates were not associated with increased risk of LOAD. The observed epidemiological associations between T2DM and LOAD could therefore be a consequence of secondary disease processes, pleiotropic mechanisms, and/or common environmental risk factors. Future work should focus on well-characterized longitudinal cohorts with extensive phenotypic and genetic data relevant to both LOAD and T2DM.

Evaluating statistical and machine learning methods to predict risk of in-hospital child mortality in Uganda

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08

The need for a marker predicting benefit following cardiovascular disease risk reduction treatment

Developing a robust method to study characteristics of vascular flow using ultrasound may be useful to assess endothelial function and vasodilatation. There are four stages in this proposal. 1.The first stage is to standardise and validate the methodology to enable computational risk flow data and other flow characteristics to be used clinically. (Current Study). Further development of fluid modelling methods will enable particulate haemodynamics to be investigated, and incorporate detailed endothelial structure together with cellular pathways. 2. This should be followed up by studies in different patient groups investigating the association between the derived values and estimated risk (using other methods such as Framingham risk score). 3. Then, associated with underlying cardiovascular risk, prospective studies would be made to establish whether computational flow dynamic data can predict outcome. If successful it could prove to be a very useful marker of benefit following treatment in a clinical setting.

Modular framework to assess the risk of African swine fever virus entry into the European Union

BACKGROUND The recent occurrence and spread of African swine fever (ASF) in Eastern Europe is perceived as a serious risk for the pig industry in the European Union (EU). In order to estimate the potential risk of ASF virus (ASFV) entering the EU, several pathways of introduction were previously assessed separately. The present work aimed to integrate five of these assessments (legal imports of pigs, legal imports of products, illegal imports of products, fomites associated with transport and wild boar movements) into a modular tool that facilitates the visualization and comprehension of the relative risk of ASFV introduction into the EU by each analyzed pathway. RESULTS The framework's results indicate that 48% of EU countries are at relatively high risk (risk score 4 or 5 out of 5) for ASFV entry for at least one analyzed pathway. Four of these countries obtained the maximum risk score for one pathway: Bulgaria for legally imported products during the high risk period (HRP); Finland for wild boar; Slovenia and Sweden for legally imported pigs during the HRP. Distribution of risk considerably differed from one pathway to another; for some pathways, the risk was concentrated in a few countries (e.g., transport fomites), whereas other pathways incurred a high risk for 4 or 5 countries (legal pigs, illegal imports and wild boar). CONCLUSIONS The modular framework, developed to estimate the risk of ASFV entry into the EU, is available in a public domain, and is a transparent, easy-to-interpret tool that can be updated and adapted if required. The model's results determine the EU countries at higher risk for each ASFV introduction route, and provide a useful basis to develop a global coordinated program to improve ASFV prevention in the EU.

The inter-rater reliability of the Risk Instrument for Screening in the Community

Predicting risk of adverse healthcare outcomes is important to enable targeted delivery of interventions. The Risk Instrument for Screening in the Community (RISC), designed for use by public health nurses (PHNs), measures the one-year risk of hospitalisation, institutionalisation and death in community-dwelling older adults according to a five-point global risk score: from low (score 1,2), medium (3) and high (4,5). We examined the inter-rater reliability (IRR) of the RISC between student PHNs (n=32) and expert raters using six cases (two low, medium and high-risk), scored before and after RISC training. Correlations increased for each adverse outcome, statistically significantly for institutionalisation (r=0.72 to 0.80,p=0.04) and hospitalisation, (r=0.51 to 0.71,p<0.01) but not death. Training improved accuracy for low-risk but not all high-risk cases. Overall, the RISC showed good IRR, which increased after RISC training. That reliability reduced for some high-risk cases suggests that the training programme requires adjustment to further improve IRR.

Cardiorespiratory fitness and cardiometabolic risk factors in schoolchildren from Colombia: The FUPRECOL Study

The objectives of this study are to investigate the association between cardiorespiratory fitness and cardiovascular risk factors in schoolchildren and to evaluate the degree of association between overall and abdominal adiposity and cardiorespiratory fitness. A total of 1,875 children and adolescents attending public schools in Bogota, Colombia (56.2% girls; age range of 9–17.9 years). A cardiovascular risk score (Z-score) was calculated and participants were divided into tertiles according to low and high levels of overall (sum of the skinfold thicknesses) and abdominal adiposity. Schoolchildren with a high level of overall adiposity demonstrated significant differences in seven of the 10 variables analyzed (i.e. systolic and diastolic blood pressure, triglycerides, triglycerides/HDL-c ratio, total cholesterol, glucose and cardiovascular risk score). Schoolchildren with high levels of both overall and abdominal adiposity and low cardiorespiratory fitness had the least favorable cardiovascular risk factors score. These findings may be relevant to health promotion in Colombian youth.

Handgrip strength cut-off for cardiometabolic risk index among Colombian children and adolescents : the FUPRECOL study

Abstract Objective: Evidence shows an association between muscular strength (MS) and health among youth, however low muscular strength cut-points for the detection of high metabolic risk in Latin-American populations are scarce. The aim of this study was two-fold: to explore potential age- and sex-specific thresholds of MS, for optimal cardiometabolic risk categorization among Colombian children and adolescents; and to investigate if cardiometabolic risk differed by MS group by applying the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) cut point. Methods: This is a secondary analysis of a cross-sectional study (the FUPRECOL study), published elsewhere. The FUPRECOL study assessments were conducted during the 2014– 2015 school year. MS was estimated by a handle dynamometer on 1,950 children and adolescents from Colombia, using the MS relative to weight (handgrip strength/body mass). A metabolic risk score was computed from the following components: waist circumference, triglycerides, HDL-c, glucose, systolic and diastolic blood pressure. ROC analysis showed a significant discriminatory accuracy of MS in identifying the low/high metabolic risk in children and adolescents and both gender. Results: In children, handgrip strength/body mass level for a low metabolic risk were 0.359 and 0.376 in girls and boys, respectively. In adolescents, these points were 0.440 and 0.447 in girls and boys, respectively. Conclusion: In conclusion, the results suggest a hypothetical MS level relative to weight for having a low metabolic risk, which could be used to identify youths at risk.

Challenges and opportunities for primary, secondary, and tertiary prevention of Chagas' disease

A century after its discovery, Chagas' disease still represents a major public health challenge in Latin America. Moreover, because of growing population movements, an increasing number of cases of imported Chagas' disease have now been detected in non-endemic areas, such as North America and some European countries. This parasitic zoonosis, caused by Trypanosoma cruzi, is transmitted to humans by infected Triatominae insects, or occasionally by non-vectorial mechanisms, such as blood transfusion, mother to fetus, or oral ingestion of materials contaminated with parasites. Following the acute phase of the infection, untreated individuals enter a chronic phase that is initially asymptomatic or clinically unapparent. Usually, a few decades later, 40-50% of patients develop progressive cardiomyopathy and/or motility disturbances of the oesophagus and colon. In the last decades several interventions targeting primary, secondary and tertiary prevention of Chagas' disease have been attempted. While control of both vectorial and blood transfusion transmission of T cruzi (primary prevention) has been successful in many regions of Latin America, early detection and aetiological treatment of asymptomatic subjects with Chagas' disease (secondary prevention) have been largely underutilised. At the same time, in patients with established chronic disease, several pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions are currently available and have been increasingly used with the intention of preventing or delaying complications of the disease (tertiary prevention). In this review we discuss in detail each of these issues.

The potential for a selective screening strategy for abdominal aortic aneurysm

Objectives-To investigate the feasibility of selective screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) based on identification of a target group of manageable size defined by risk factors for AAA. Setting-Male residents of Perth, Western Australia, aged 65-83 years, who participated in a randomised controlled trial of ultrasound screening for AAA. Methods-Eligible men were identified from the electoral roll and invited to attend a screening clinic. Those who attended completed a questionnaire, had a limited physical examination, and underwent an ultrasound examination to identify the maximum diameter of the infrarenal aorta. Data on risk factors collected from the first 8995 men seen were used to calculate a multivariate risk score for the remaining 2755 men who were screened. Gentiles of the risk score were used to define potential target groups for screening and the sensitivity and specificity of each of these selective screening strategies were calculated. We repeated the calculation separately for AAAs of at least 30 mm, 40 mm, and 50 mm in diameter. Results-We found that screening half of the male population aged 65-83 years would find approximately 75% of AAAs, regardless of their size, whereas screening only current smokers in this population would find approximately 20% of AAAs. Conclusions-Selective screening for AAA using easily recognisable risk factors is feasible but is not worthwhile as approximately 25% of clinically significant cases would be missed.

Most of the patients presenting myocardial infarction would not be eligible for intensive lipid-lowering based on clinical algorithms or plasma C-reactive protein

Objective: The study we assessed how often patients who are manifesting a myocardial infarction (MI) would not be considered candidates for intensive lipid-lowering therapy based on the current guidelines. Methods: In 355 consecutive patients manifesting ST elevation MI (STEMI), admission plasma C-reactive protein (CRP) was measured and Framingham risk score (FRS), PROCAM risk score, Reynolds risk score, ASSIGN risk score, QRISK, and SCORE algorithms were applied. Cardiac computed tomography and carotid ultrasound were performed to assess the coronary artery calcium score (CAC), carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) and the presence of carotid plaques. Results: Less than 50% of STEMI patients would be identified as having high risk before the event by any of these algorithms. With the exception of FRS (9%), all other algorithms would assign low risk to about half of the enrolled patients. Plasma CRP was <1.0 mg/L in 70% and >2 mg/L in 14% of the patients. The average cIMT was 0.8 +/- 0.2 mm and only in 24% of patients was >= 1.0 mm. Carotid plaques were found in 74% of patients. CAC > 100 was found in 66% of patients. Adding CAC >100 plus the presence of carotid plaque, a high-risk condition would be identified in 100% of the patients using any of the above mentioned algorithms. Conclusion: More than half of patients manifesting STEMI would not be considered as candidates for intensive preventive therapy by the current clinical algorithms. The addition of anatomical parameters such as CAC and the presence of carotid plaques can substantially reduce the CVD risk underestimation. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Derivation and external validation of a simple prediction model for the diagnosis of type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in the Brazilian urban population

A risk score model was developed based in a population of 1,224 individuals from the general population without known diabetes aging 35 years or more from an urban Brazilian population sample in order to select individuals who should be screened in subsequent testing and improve the efficacy of public health assurance. External validation was performed in a second, independent, population from a different city ascertained through a similar epidemiological protocol. The risk score was developed by multiple logistic regression and model performance and cutoff values were derived from a receiver operating characteristic curve. Model`s capacity of predicting fasting blood glucose levels was tested analyzing data from a 5-year follow-up protocol conducted in the general population. Items independently and significantly associated with diabetes were age, BMI and known hypertension. Sensitivity, specificity and proportion of further testing necessary for the best cutoff value were 75.9, 66.9 and 37.2%, respectively. External validation confirmed the model`s adequacy (AUC equal to 0.72). Finally, model score was also capable of predicting fasting blood glucose progression in non-diabetic individuals in a 5-year follow-up period. In conclusion, this simple diabetes risk score was able to identify individuals with an increased likelihood of having diabetes and it can be used to stratify subpopulations in which performing of subsequent tests is necessary and probably cost-effective.

Comorbidity adjustment index for the international classification of diseases, 10

OBJECTIVE: To develop a Charlson-like comorbidity index based on clinical conditions and weights of the original Charlson comorbidity index. METHODS: Clinical conditions and weights were adapted from the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision and applied to a single hospital admission diagnosis. The study included 3,733 patients over 18 years of age who were admitted to a public general hospital in the city of Rio de Janeiro, southeast Brazil, between Jan 2001 and Jan 2003. The index distribution was analyzed by gender, type of admission, blood transfusion, intensive care unit admission, age and length of hospital stay. Two logistic regression models were developed to predict in-hospital mortality including: a) the aforementioned variables and the risk-adjustment index (full model); and b) the risk-adjustment index and patient's age (reduced model). RESULTS: Of all patients analyzed, 22.3% had risk scores >1, and their mortality rate was 4.5% (66.0% of them had scores >1). Except for gender and type of admission, all variables were retained in the logistic regression. The models including the developed risk index had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.86 (full model), and 0.76 (reduced model). Each unit increase in the risk score was associated with nearly 50% increase in the odds of in-hospital death. CONCLUSIONS: The risk index developed was able to effectively discriminate the odds of in-hospital death which can be useful when limited information is available from hospital databases.

The role of functional polymorphisms in immune response genes as biomarkers of BCG Immunotherapy outcome in bladder cancer: Establishment of a predictive profile in a Southern Europe population

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the predictive value of genetic polymorphisms in the context of BCG immunotherapy outcome and create a predictive profile that may allow discriminating the risk of recurrence. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In a dataset of 204 patients treated with BCG, we evaluate 42 genetic polymorphisms in 38 genes involved in the BCG mechanism of action, using Sequenom MassARRAY technology. Stepwise multivariate Cox Regression was used for data mining. RESULTS: In agreement with previous studies we observed that gender, age, tumor multiplicity and treatment scheme were associated with BCG failure. Using stepwise multivariate Cox Regression analysis we propose the first predictive profile of BCG immunotherapy outcome and a risk score based on polymorphisms in immune system molecules (SNPs in TNFA-1031T/C (rs1799964), IL2RA rs2104286 T/C, IL17A-197G/A (rs2275913), IL17RA-809A/G (rs4819554), IL18R1 rs3771171 T/C, ICAM1 K469E (rs5498), FASL-844T/C (rs763110) and TRAILR1-397T/G (rs79037040) in association with clinicopathological variables. This risk score allows the categorization of patients into risk groups: patients within the Low Risk group have a 90% chance of successful treatment, whereas patients in the High Risk group present 75% chance of recurrence after BCG treatment. CONCLUSION: We have established the first predictive score of BCG immunotherapy outcome combining clinicopathological characteristics and a panel of genetic polymorphisms. Further studies using an independent cohort are warranted. Moreover, the inclusion of other biomarkers may help to improve the proposed model.

Rastreio aos factores de risco modificáveis da doença isquémica da doença isquémica coronária no concelho de Faro

RESUMO: Introdução: As doenças cardiovasculares (DCV) são a principal causa de morbilidade, e mortalidade prematura em Portugal e na Europa. A sua causa é multifactorial e a maior parte dos casos resultam de factores de risco modificáveis. O cálculo do RCVG, pretende ser uma estimativa da probabilidade de desenvolver DCV. Este estudo pretende identificar e caracterizar indivíduos em risco de desenvolver doença isquémica coronária e respectivos factores de risco modificáveis, no Concelho de Faro e determinar a sua prevalência e calcular SCORE global de risco cardiovascular Material e métodos: Estudo, observacional transversal, que incluiu um total de 601 individuos, com idades entre os 40-64 anos de idade, residentes no concelho de Faro, inscritos no Centro de Saúde de Faro e que consistiu da avaliação da prevalência dos factores de risco modificáveis da doença isquémica coronária pela utilização de instrumentos específicos. Resultados e discussão: Foram incluídos 601 individuos de ambos os géneros. Trata-se de uma população potencialmente menos literada e num contexto social, cultural, familiar e profissional que, eventualmente, condicionará o estilo de vida e opções em saúde. 55,9% dos indivíduos tem HTA; 42,4 % dos indivíduos tem valor de colesterol total elevado, compatível com dislipidemia (cut off de 200mg/dl); 50,9 % (cut off 190 mg/dl); 8,7% tem valores de glicemia compatíveis com diabetes; 19,8 são fumadores; 72,7% apresenta excesso de peso/obesidade; 37,6% dos indivíduos tem baixo nível de actividade física; 20,1% dos indivíduos apresenta evidência de stress, ansiedade ou depressão, pela avaliação utilizando a EADS. Parece existir evidência de maior proporção de factores de risco entre os homens e uma proporção significativa de indivíduos com importantes factores de risco modificáveis em simultâneo. Mais de metade dos indivíduos tem 3 ou mais factores de risco em simultâneo, com o excesso de peso/obesidade, hipertensão e dislipidemia a serem os com mais comummente associados. 9,7% dos indivíduos tem risco entre 5-9% e apenas 29,3% tem SCORE inferior a 1%. Conclusões: A elevada prevalência dos factores de risco modificáveis e a elevada proporção de indivíduos identificados com esses factores, e com risco moderado e alto de DCV, parece justificar uma atenção redobrada a esse nível e um planeamento dos cuidados de saúde ajustados e específicos para esta realidade.----------------------- ABSTRACT: Introduction: Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of morbidity and premature mortality in Portugal and in Europe. The cause is multifactorial and in most cases results from modifiable risk factors. The global cardiovascular risk calculation is intended as an estimate of the likelihood of developing cardiovascular disease. This study aims to identify and characterize individuals at risk of developing ischemic heart disease and their modifiable risk factors in Faro, and determine its prevalence as well as to calculate global cardiovascular risk SCORE. Methodology: This was a cross sectional observational study, which included a total of 601 individuals, aged 40-64 years of age living in Faro, and enrolled atthe Health Centre of Faro. The prevalence of modifiable risk factors of disease ischemic heart was assessed once, after letter invitation, by the use of the following instruments (acrescentar os instrumentos). Data was analysed with (incluir testes estatisticos utilizados) Results and Discussion: We included 601 subjects of both genders. This is a potentially less literate population with a social, cultural and family contextwhich, may eventually constrain lifestyle and health choices. Almost sixty percent (55.9%) of the individuals have hypertension, 42,4% have high total cholesterol value, compatible with dyslipidemia, 8,7 % had blood glucose values compatible with diabetes, 19,8% are smokers, 72,7% are overweight or obese, 37,6% of individuals have low levels of physical activity, 20,1% of individual show evidence of stress, anxiety or depression, as assessed by using the DASS. There seems to be evidence of a greater proportion of risk factors among men and a significant proportion of individuals with major modifiable risk factores simultaneously. More than half of the studied individuals have three or more risk factors simultaneously, being excess weight / obesity, hypertension and dyslipidemia, the most commonly associated. Almost ten percent (9,7%) of the individuals have a risk between 5-9% and only 29,3% has a SCORE less than 1%. Conclusion: The high prevalence of modifiable risk factors and the high proportion of individuals identified with these factors, and with moderate and high risk of CVD, appear to justify further attention at this level and planning of health care interventions specifically adjusted to this reality.

Cirurgia Obliterativa do Prolapso dos Órgãos Pélvicos - uma Opção ainda Válida?

Objective: To investigate the results of vaginal obliterate surgery in elderly women with pelvic organ prolapse. Design: observational retrospective study. Material and Methods: a total of 69 women with the diagnosis of pelvic prolapse were submitted to obliterative surgery in the urogynecology unit of a tertiary care hospital centre over the course of 8 years (2001 to 2008). The following data were collected from their clinical records: age, number of vaginal births, body mass index (BMI), hormone therapy, other existing diseases, type of prolapse and stage, anaesthetic risk score, duration of surgery, length of hospital stay, and short-term complications. Results: Of the 69 women studied, 31 were submitted to colpocleisis and the remaining 38 were managed by the LeFort technique. Mean age was 74.8 years with a standard deviation (sd) of 7.14 years. Average BMI was 26.2 (sd =3.76). Vaginal births were recorded in all patients. Only three patients were taking hormone therapy at the time of surgery. Sixty-three women were classified as having and anesthetic risk of II or III and 55 underwent local-regional anesthesia. Complications were reported in five cases, four of which in the first days after surgery. Nearly all were mild and resolved within the first 6 weeks. Conclusion: Complication rates appear to be low after obliterative surgery for pelvic organ prolapse in elderly women.