Insurance services in multi-agent systems

In a multi-agent environment, there is often the need for an agent to cooperate with others so as to ensure that a given task is achieved timely and cost-effectively. Present agent systems currently maximizes this through mechanisms such as trust and risk assessments. In this paper, we extend this mechanism by introducing the concept of insurance, in which the insurance agents act as a bridge between agents who require resources from others. Unlike traditional systems, agents purchase insurance so as to guarantee to have the requested resources during the task execution time and thus minimize the risk in task failure. The novelty of this proposal is that it ensures agents continuously to exchange resources and to seek maximum expected utility in a dynamic environment at the same time. Our experimental results confirm the feasibility of our approach.

Mental health diversion courts : some directions for further development

Recent years have seen a growth in the number of specialist courts operating in Australia, including those which aim to address the needs of mentally disordered offenders. This article describes some of the key characteristics of mental health courts, using case studies from the most established court in Australia, the South Australian Magistrates Court Diversion Program (MCDP). This is followed by a consideration of some factors that may affect the future development of this type of program. It is concluded that there is a need to pay careful attention to issues of risk assessment and risk management if the dual goals of improving both the health of individual and the safety of the community are to be realised.

Field evaluation of a suite of biomarkers in an Australian Tropical Reef Species, Stripey Seaperch (Lutjanus carponotatus) : Assessment of Produced Formation water from the Harriet A Platform

There is paucity of data regarding hydrocarbon exposure of tropical fish species inhabiting the waters near oil and gas platforms on the Northwest Shelf of Australia. A comprehensive field study assessed the exposure and potential effects associated with the produced water (PW) plume from the Harriet A production platform on the northwest shelf in a local reef species, Stripey seaperch (Lutjanus carponotatus). This field study was a continuation of an earlier pilot study which concluded that there were “warning signs” of potential biological effects on fish populations exposed to PW. A 10-day field caging study was conducted deploying 15 individual fish into 6 separate steel cages set 1-m subsurface at 3 stations in a concentration gradient moving away from the platform. A battery of biomarkers were evaluated including hepatosomatic index (HSI), total cytochrome P450, bile metabolites, CYP1A-, CYP2K- and CYP2M-like proteins, cholinesterase (ChE) activity, and histopathology of liver and gill tissues. Water column and PW effluent samples was also collected. Results confirmed that PAH metabolites in bile, CYP1A-, CYP2K-, and CYP2M-like proteins and liver histopathology provided evidence of significant exposure and effects after 10 days at the near-field site (~200 m off the Harriet A platform). Hepatosomatic index, total cytochrome P450, and ChE did not provide site-specific differences by day 10 of exposure to PW. CYP proteins were shown by principal component analysis (PCA) to be the best diagnostic tool for determining exposure and associated biological effects of PW on L. carponotatus. Using a suite of biomarkers has been widely advocated as a vital component in environmental risk assessments worldwide. This study demonstrates the usefulness of biomarkers for assessing the Harriet A PW discharge into Australian waters with broader applications for other PW discharges. This approach has merit as a valuable addition to environmental management strategies for protecting Australia’s tropical environment and its rich biodiversity.

Reproduction in five sympatric batoid species (family urolophidae) from south-eastern Australia

This PhD determines the reproductive biology of five stingaree species caught as bycatch from south-eastern Australian commercial fisheries for fisheries stock assessments, ecological risk assessments, and species extinction risk evaluations.

Predicting avian distributions to evaluate spatiotemporal overlap with locust control operations in eastern Australia.

Locusts and grasshoppers cause considerable economic damage to agriculture worldwide. The Australian Plague Locust Commission uses multiple pesticides to control locusts in eastern Australia. Avian exposure to agricultural pesticides is of conservation concern, especially in the case of rare and threatened species. The aim of this study was to evaluate the probability of pesticide exposure of native avian species during operational locust control based on knowledge of species occurrence in areas and times of application. Using presence-absence data provided by the Birds Australia Atlas for 1998 to 2002, we developed a series of generalized linear models to predict avian occurrences on a monthly basis in 0.5 degrees grid cells for 280 species over 2 million km2 in eastern Australia. We constructed species-specific models relating occupancy patterns to survey date and location, rainfall, and derived habitat preference. Model complexity depended on the number of observations available. Model output was the probability of occurrence for each species at times and locations of past locust control operations within the 5-year study period. Given the high spatiotemporal variability of locust control events, the variability in predicted bird species presence was high, with 108 of the total 280 species being included at least once in the top 20 predicted species for individual space-time events. The models were evaluated using field surveys collected between 2000 and 2005, at sites with and without locust outbreaks. Model strength varied among species. Some species were under- or over-predicted as times and locations of interest typically did not correspond to those in the prediction data set and certain species were likely attracted to locusts as a food source. Field surveys demonstrated the utility of the spatially explicit species lists derived from the models but also identified the presence of a number of previously unanticipated species. These results also emphasize the need for special consideration of rare and threatened species that are poorly predicted by presence-absence models. This modeling exercise was a useful a priori approach in species risk assessments to identify species present at times and locations of locust control applications, and to discover gaps in our knowledge and need for further focused data collection.

Testing the focal species approach to making conservation decisions for species persistence

Aim: Most risk assessments and decisions in conservation are based on surrogate approaches, where a group of species or environmental indicators are selected as proxies for other aspects of biodiversity. In the focal species approach, a suite of species is selected based on life history characteristics, such as dispersal limitation and area requirements. Testing the validity of the focal species concept has proved difficult, due to a lack of theory justifying the underlying framework, explicit objectives and measures of success. We sought to understand the conditions under which the focal species concept has merit for conservation decisions. Location: Our model system comprised 10 vertebrate species in 39 patches of native forest embedded in pine plantation in New South Wales, Australia. Methods: We selected three focal species based on ecological traits. We used a multiple-species reserve selection method that minimizes the expected loss of species, by estimating the risk of extinction with a metapopulation model. We found optimal reserve solutions for multiple species, including all 10 species, the three focal species, for all possible combinations of three species, and for each species individually. Results: Our case study suggests that the focal species approach can work: the reserve system that minimized the expected loss of the focal species also minimized the expected species loss in the larger set of 10 species. How well the solution would perform for other species and given landscape dynamics remains unknown. Main conclusions: The focal species approach may have merit as a conservation short cut if placed within a quantitative decision-making framework, where the aspects of biodiversity for which the focal species act as proxies are explicitly defined, and success is determined by whether the use of the proxy results in the same decision. Our methods provide a framework for testing other surrogate approaches used in conservation decision-making and risk assessment. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Guidelines for using movement science to inform biodiversity policy

Substantial advances have been made in our understanding of the movement of species, including processes such as dispersal and migration. This knowledge has the potential to improve decisions about biodiversity policy and management, but it can be difficult for decision makers to readily access and integrate the growing body of movement science. This is, in part, due to a lack of synthesis of information that is sufficiently contextualized for a policy audience. Here, we identify key species movement concepts, including mechanisms, types, and moderators of movement, and review their relevance to (1) national biodiversity policies and strategies, (2) reserve planning and management, (3) threatened species protection and recovery, (4) impact and risk assessments, and (5) the prioritization of restoration actions. Based on the review, and considering recent developments in movement ecology, we provide a new framework that draws links between aspects of movement knowledge that are likely the most relevant to each biodiversity policy category. Our framework also shows that there is substantial opportunity for collaboration between researchers and government decision makers in the use of movement science to promote positive biodiversity outcomes.

ACUTE TOXICITY of SODIUM SELENITE and SODIUM SELENATE TO TILAPIA, Oreochromis niloticus, FINGERLINGS

Selenium is an essential nutrient for many organisms, including fish. It can be released in the water by natural processes of dissolving rocks and minerals, and by the wastewater from industries and agricultural activities, which can increase its concentration in the environment, leading to toxic effects to the aquatic biota. Median Lethal Concentrations (LC(50-96h)) of two forms of selenium were estimated to fingerlings of Nile tilapia Oreochromis niloticus, focusing on estimating indicators for future environmental risk assessments in aquatic ecosystems contaminated with those elements, particularly for evaluate sources of water quality suitable for rearing tilapia. The results were: LC(50-96h) of sodium selenite (Na(2)SeO(3)) = 4.42 mg Se(4+) L(-1), and LC(50-96h) of sodium selenate (Na(2)SeO(4)) = 14,67 mg Se(6+) L(-1). According to those data, it was possible to classify sodium selenite as highly toxic and sodium selenate as moderately toxic to fingerlings of tilapia.

Early cytotoxic and genotoxic effects of atrazine on Wistar rat liver: A morphological, immunohistochemical, biochemical, and molecular study

Risk assessments suggest that intermediate and long-term exposure to triazine herbicides and its metabolites through water can cause severe damage to human health. The objective of this study was to investigate the possible effects of atrazine on Wistar rats submitted to subacute treatment. For this purpose, the activity of catalase and alanine aminotransferase was quantified, and the effect of the herbicide on cell membranes was examined based on the measurement of lipid peroxidation and consequent formation of malondialdehyde and on the mRNA expression of antioxidant enzymes (Mn-superoxide dismutase [SOD] and GSTM1) and connexins. In addition, we evaluated histopathological alterations in the liver, cellular expression of SOD and glutathione (GST), activation of heat shock proteins (HSPs) by immunohistochemistry, and the induction of apoptosis. The genotoxic potential of the herbicide was investigated by the micronucleus test in bone marrow smears. Adult male Wistar rats were treated with an aqueous solution of atrazine at a concentration of 400 mg/kg/day, by gavage, for 14 consecutive days. Control groups were also included. The results showed an increase of catalase levels and maintenance of the expression of antioxidant enzymes (SOD and GST). In addition, lipid peroxidation, hepatic tissue degeneration, activation of HSP90, increased levels of connexin mRNA, and genotoxicity were observed. In conclusion, atrazine induced early hepatic oxidative stress that triggered defense mechanisms to maintain the morphophysiological integrity of the liver. Further studies are needed to better understand the effects of this herbicide on human health. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Avaliação ecotoxicológica e risco ambiental dos inseticidas utilizados no controle da larva de Aedes aegypti para Daphnia magna, Lemna minor e peixes

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Toxicity assessment of TiO2 nanoparticles in zebrafish embryos under different exposure conditions

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Plant invasions research in Latin America: fast track to a more focused agenda

While many developed countries have invested heavily in research on plant invasions over the last 50 years, the immense region of Latin America has made little progress. Recognising this, a group of scientists working on plant invasions in Latin America met in Chile in late 2010 to develop a research agenda for the region based on lessons learned elsewhere. Our three main findings are as follows. (1) Globalisation is inevitable, but the resultant plant introductions can be slowed or prevented by effective quarantine and early intervention. Development of spatially explicit inventories, research on the invasion process and weed risk assessments can help prioritise and streamline action. (2) Eradication has limited application for plants and control is expensive and requires strict prioritisation and careful planning and evaluation. (3) Accepting the concept of novel ecosystems, new combinations of native and introduced species that no longer depend on human intervention, may help optimise invasive species management. Our vision of novel ecosystem management is through actions that: (a) maintain as much native biodiversity and ecosystem functionality as possible, (b) minimise management intervention to invasives with known impact, and (c) maximise the area of intervention. We propose the creation of a Latin American Invasive Plants Network to help focus the new research agenda for member countries. The network would coordinate research and training and establish funding priorities, develop and strengthen tools to share knowledge, and raise awareness at the community, governmental and intergovernmental levels about the social, economic and environmental costs of plant invasions.

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in river bank soils

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are ubiquitous and found in the atmosphere, aquatic environment, sediments and soils. For environmental risk assessments and the allocation of the polluter it is important to know the PAH sources. PAH contamination sites are usually the result of anthropogenic processes. Three major sources are known: i) petroleum, including crude oil and its refined products and coals (petrogenic PAHs), ii) burning of organic matter (pyrogenic PAHs) and iii) transformation products of natural organic precursors present in the environment (diagenetic processes). In one case elevated PAH concentrations were found in river bank soils when building a retention area along the Mosel River. The source of the PAHs in this area was unclear and required the investigation of possible sources. To evaluate the PAH distribution along the Mosel River, a section of ~ 160 km along the river and a short section along the Saar River were investigated within this study. Concentrations of the Σ16 EPA PAHs were as high as 81 mg kg-1 dry weight (dw). Additionally, coal particles were identified in some soils, which originated from mining activities in the Saarland region. PAH distribution patterns of the 16 EPA PAHs suggest a mainly pyrogenic origin and in some cases a mixture of pyrogenic and petrogenic origin. For a comprehensive investigation five sampling sites were selected. Two sites were located before the confluence of the Mosel and Saar River, one site at the confluence and two sites after the confluence. The examination included typical forensic methods such as PAH distribution patterns of 45 PAHs (including alkylated PAHs), calculation of PAH ratios, determination of PAH alkyl homologues, n-alkanes, principal component analysis (PCA) and coal petrography. The results revealed a mainly pyrogenic source at sampling sites before the confluence of the two rivers. At and after the confluence, a mixture of pyrogenic and petrogenic inputs were present. With the help of coal petrography, coal derived particles could be identified in these soils. Therefore, coal was suggested to be the petrogenic source. It could be shown that sites with diffuse sources of contaminants, like the bank soils of the Mosel River, are difficult to characterize. As previously mentioned for detailed source identifications, the use of various forensic methods is essential. Determination of PAH alkyl homologue series, biomarkers and isotopes are often recommended. Source identification was evaluated using three different methods (i.e. PAH distribution patterns of an extended PAH spectrum, PAH ratios and analyses of n-alkanes). It was assessed if these methods were sufficient for the initial steps in identifying sources of PAHs in selected samples, and if they could be used for decision-making purposes. Point- and non-point sources were identified by applying the three methods and it could be shown that these relatively simple methods are sufficient in determining the primary source. In a last step of this study two soils (one before the confluence of the Mosel and Saar rivers and one after the confluence), and one sediment of the Mosel River were evaluated by investigating the mutagenic potential of the soils and the sediment with a fluctuation version of the Ames-test. The study showed that coal bearing soils at the Mosel River do not exhibit a greater mutagenic potential than other soils or sediments without coal particles.

MORTALITY IN THE MEDICARE POPULATION AND CHRONIC EXPOSURE TO FINE PARTICULATE AIR POLLUTION

Prospective cohort studies have provided evidence on longer-term mortality risks of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), but due to their complexity and costs, only a few have been conducted. By linking monitoring data to the U.S. Medicare system by county of residence, we developed a retrospective cohort study, the Medicare Air Pollution Cohort Study (MCAPS), comprising over 20 million enrollees in the 250 largest counties during 2000-2002. We estimated log-linear regression models having as outcome the age-specific mortality rate for each county and as the main predictor, the average level for the study period 2000. Area-level covariates were used to adjust for socio-economic status and smoking. We reported results under several degrees of adjustment for spatial confounding and with stratification into by eastern, central and western counties. We estimated that a 10 µg/m3 increase in PM25 is associated with a 7.6% increase in mortality (95% CI: 4.4 to 10.8%). We found a stronger association in the eastern counties than nationally, with no evidence of an association in western counties. When adjusted for spatial confounding, the estimated log-relative risks drop by 50%. We demonstrated the feasibility of using Medicare data to establish cohorts for follow-up for effects of air pollution. Particulate matter (PM) air pollution is a global public health problem (1). In developing countries, levels of airborne particles still reach concentrations at which serious health consequences are well-documented; in developed countries, recent epidemiologic evidence shows continued adverse effects, even though particle levels have declined in the last two decades (2-6). Increased mortality associated with higher levels of PM air pollution has been of particular concern, giving an imperative for stronger protective regulations (7). Evidence on PM and health comes from studies of acute and chronic adverse effects (6). The London Fog of 1952 provides dramatic evidence of the unacceptable short-term risk of extremely high levels of PM air pollution (8-10); multi-site time-series studies of daily mortality show that far lower levels of particles are still associated with short-term risk (5)(11-13). Cohort studies provide complementary evidence on the longer-term risks of PM air pollution, indicating the extent to which exposure reduces life expectancy. The design of these studies involves follow-up of cohorts for mortality over periods of years to decades and an assessment of mortality risk in association with estimated long-term exposure to air pollution (2-4;14-17). Because of the complexity and costs of such studies, only a small number have been conducted. The most rigorously executed, including the Harvard Six Cities Study and the American Cancer Society’s (ACS) Cancer Prevention Study II, have provided generally consistent evidence for an association of long- term exposure to particulate matter air pollution with increased all-cause and cardio-respiratory mortality (2,4,14,15). Results from these studies have been used in risk assessments conducted for setting the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for PM and for estimating the global burden of disease attributable to air pollution (18,19). Additional prospective cohort studies are necessary, however, to confirm associations between long-term exposure to PM and mortality, to broaden the populations studied, and to refine estimates by regions across which particle composition varies. Toward this end, we have used data from the U.S. Medicare system, which covers nearly all persons 65 years of age and older in the United States. We linked Medicare mortality data to (particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter) air pollution monitoring data to create a new retrospective cohort study, the Medicare Air Pollution Cohort Study (MCAPS), consisting of 20 million persons from 250 counties and representing about 50% of the US population of elderly living in urban settings. In this paper, we report on the relationship between longer-term exposure to PM2.5 and mortality risk over the period 2000 to 2002 in the MCAPS.

Sublethal neonicotinoid insecticide exposure reduces solitary bee reproductive success

1.Pollinating insects provide crucial and economically important ecosystem services to crops and wild plants, but pollinators, particularly bees, are globally declining as a result of various driving factors, including the prevalent use of pesticides for crop protection. Sublethal pesticide exposure negatively impacts numerous pollinator life-history traits, but its influence on reproductive success remains largely unknown. Such information is pivotal, however, to our understanding of the long-term effects on population dynamics. 2.We investigated the influence of field-realistic trace residues of the routinely used neonicotinoid insecticides thiamethoxam and clothianidin in nectar substitutes on the entire life-time fitness performance of the red mason bee Osmia bicornis. 3.We show that chronic, dietary neonicotinoid exposure has severe detrimental effects on solitary bee reproductive output. Neonicotinoids did not affect adult bee mortality; however, monitoring of fully controlled experimental populations revealed that sublethal exposure resulted in almost 50% reduced total offspring production and a significantly male-biased offspring sex ratio. 4.Our data add to the accumulating evidence indicating that sublethal neonicotinoid effects on non-Apis pollinators are expressed most strongly in a rather complex, fitness-related context. Consequently, to fully mitigate long-term impacts on pollinator population dynamics, present pesticide risk assessments need to be expanded to include whole life-cycle fitness estimates, as demonstrated in the present study using O. bicornis as a model.