Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

Pedestrian Priority Zones in the Context of Urban Mobility and Valorization of Public Space

The second half of the XX century was marked by a great increase in the number of people living in cities. Urban agglomerations became poles of attraction for migration flows and these phenomena, coupled with growing car-ownership rates, resulted in the fact that modern transport systems are characterized by large number of users and traffic modes. The necessity to organize these complex systems and to provide space for different traffic modes changed the way cities look. Urban areas had to cope with traffic flows, and as a result nowadays typical street pattern consists of a road for motorized vehicles, a cycle lane (in some cases), pavement for pedestrians, parking and a range of crucial signage to facilitate navigation and make mobility more secure. However, this type of street organization may not be desirable in certain areas, more specifically, in the city centers. Downtown areas have always been places where economic, leisure, social and other types of facilities are concentrated, not surprisingly, they often attract large number of people and this frequently results in traffic jams, air and noise pollution, thus creating unpleasant environment. Besides, excessive traffic signage in central locations can harm the image and perception of a place, this relates in particular to historical centers with architectural heritage.

New York City: "gilt cage" or "promised land" ? : representations of urban space in Edith Wharton and Anzia Yezierska

This thesis explores the importance of literary New York City in the urban narratives of Edith Wharton and Anzia Yezierska. It specifically looks at the Empire City of the Progressive Period when the concept of the city was not only a new theme but also very much a typical American one which was as central to the American experience as had been the Western frontier. It could be argued, in fact, that the American city had become the new frontier where modern experiences like urbanization, industrialization, immigration, and also women's emancipation and suffrage, caused all kinds of sensations on the human scale from smoothly lived assimilation and acculturation to deeply felt alienation because of the constantly shifting urban landscape. The developing urban space made possible the emergence of new female literary protagonists like the working girl, the reformer, the prostitute, and the upper class lady dedicating her life to 'conspicuous consumption'. Industrialization opened up city space to female exploration: on the one hand, upper and middle class ladies ventured out of the home because of the many novel urban possibilities, and on the other, lower class and immigrant girls also left their domestic sphere to look for paid jobs outside the home. New York City at the time was not only considered the epicenter of the world at large, it was also a city of great extremes. Everything was constantly in flux: small brownstones made way for ever taller skyscrapers and huge waves of immigrants from Europe pushed native New Yorkers further uptown on the island, adding to the crowdedness and intensity of the urban experience. The city became a polarized urban space with Fifth Avenue representing one end of the spectrum and the Lower East Side the other. Questions of space and the urban home greatly mattered. It has been pointed out that the city setting functions as an ideal means for the display of human nature as well as social processes. Narrative representations of urban space, therefore, provide a similar canvas for a protagonist's journey and development. From widely diverging vantage points both Edith Wharton and Anzia Yezierska thus create a polarized city where domesticity is a primal concern. Looking at all of their New York narratives by close readings of exterior and interior city representations, this thesis shows how urban space greatly affects questions of identity, assimilation, and alienation in literary protagonists who cannot escape the influence of their respective urban settings. Edith Wharton's upper class "millionaire" heroines are framed and contained by the city interiors of "old" New York, making it impossible for them to truly participate in the urban landscape in order to develop outside of their 'Gilt Cages'. On the other side are Anzia Yezierska's struggling "immigrant" protagonists who, against all odds, never give up in their urban context of streets, rooftops, and stoops. Their New York City, while always challenging and perpetually changing, at least allows them perspectives of hope for a 'Promised Land' in the making. Central for both urban narrative approaches is the quest for a home as an architectural structure, a spiritual resting place, and a locus for identity forming. But just as the actual city embraces change, urban protagonists must embrace change also if they desire to find fulfillment and success. That this turns out to be much easier for Anzia Yezierska's driven immigrants rather than for Edith Wharton's well established native New Yorkers is a surprising conclusion to this urban theme.

The Role of Experience in the Organization and Refinement of Face Space

Adults code faces in reference to category-specific norms that represent the different face categories encountered in the environment (e.g., race, age). Reliance on such norm-based coding appears to aid recognition, but few studies have examined the development of separable prototypes and the way in which experience influences the refinement of the coding dimensions associated with different face categories. The present dissertation was thus designed to investigate the organization and refinement of face space and the role of experience in shaping sensitivity to its underlying dimensions. In Study 1, I demonstrated that face space is organized with regard to norms that reflect face categories that are both visually and socially distinct. These results provide an indication of the types of category-specific prototypes that can conceivably exist in face space. Study 2 was designed to investigate whether children rely on category-specific prototypes and the extent to which experience facilitates the development of separable norms. I demonstrated that unlike adults and older children, 5-year-olds rely on a relatively undifferentiated face space, even for categories with which they receive ample experience. These results suggest that the dimensions of face space undergo significant refinement throughout childhood; 5 years of experience with a face category is not sufficient to facilitate the development of separable norms. In Studies 3 through 5, I examined how early and continuous exposure to young adult faces may optimize the face processing system for the dimensions of young relative to older adult faces. In Study 3, I found evidence for a young adult bias in attentional allocation among young and older adults. However, whereas young adults showed an own-age recognition advantage, older adults exhibited comparable recognition for young and older faces. These results suggest that despite the significant experience that older adults have with older faces, the early and continuous exposure they received with young faces continues to influence their recognition, perhaps because face space is optimized for young faces. In Studies 4 and 5, I examined whether sensitivity to deviations from the norm is superior for young relative to older adult faces. I used normality/attractiveness judgments as a measure of this sensitivity; to examine whether biases were specific to norm-based coding, I asked participants to discriminate between the same faces. Both young and older adults were more accurate when tested with young relative to older faces—but only when judging normality. Like adults, 3- and 7-year-olds were more accurate in judging the attractiveness of young faces; however, unlike adults, this bias extended to the discrimination task. Thus by 3 years of age children are more sensitive to differences among young relative to older faces, suggesting that young children's perceptual system is more finely tuned for young than older adult faces. Collectively, the results of this dissertation help elucidate the development of category-specific norms and clarify the role of experience in shaping sensitivity to the dimensions of face space.

Relationship Building with Aboriginal Elders in the Publicly Funded Secondary School Classroom: A Study of Ethical Space from an Aboriginal Persepective

This is a current story of ethical space in education that is often neglected in the design of educational experiences for Aboriginal students. This story is told through an Aboriginal lens rooted in the structured Two Row Wampum Belt relational agreement between Aboriginal peoples and Settlers. Through ethnographic narrative based on an extensive literature review, individual in-depth interviews, and a personal journal, this study documents the processes of acceptance, silence, complications, and then rejection to position Aboriginal Elders as inclusive bodies of knowledge in publicly funded secondary school classrooms. Aboriginal Elders are valued as Knowledge Holders, as Aboriginal teachers, guides, and mentors. Yet, the complexities of colonial rights, politics, and policies continue to intrude deeply into the lives of Aboriginal peoples to cause silence, confusion, and struggle rather than an evolution of new knowledge amongst two co-existing solitudes under the original terms of the Two Row Wampum Belt. The study was delayed and then came to an end when the school boards and local schools scrutinized its operating policies and unresolved funding issues. This study demonstrated that despite the Two Row Wampum Belt agreement that promised a co- existent relationship between Aboriginal peoples and Settlers, the strategy of inviting Aboriginal Elders to work alongside teachers in the classroom was viewed as being in conflict with the Settler’s institutional/educational objectivities, and, as such, was denied to Aboriginal students.

Antagonism of tetherin restriction of HIV-1 release by Vpu involves binding and sequestration of the restriction factor in a perinuclear compartment

The Vpu accessory protein promotes HIV-1 release by counteracting Tetherin/BST-2, an interferon-regulated restriction factor, which retains virions at the cell-surface. Recent reports proposed beta-TrCP-dependent proteasomal and/or endo-lysosomal degradation of Tetherin as potential mechanisms by which Vpu could down-regulate Tetherin cell-surface expression and antagonize this restriction. In all of these studies, Tetherin degradation did not, however, entirely account for Vpu anti-Tetherin activity. Here, we show that Vpu can promote HIV-1 release without detectably affecting Tetherin steady-state levels or turnover, suggesting that Tetherin degradation may not be necessary and/or sufficient for Vpu anti-Tetherin activity. Even though Vpu did not enhance Tetherin internalization from the plasma membrane (PM), it did significantly slow-down the overall transport of the protein towards the cell-surface. Accordingly, Vpu expression caused a specific removal of cell-surface Tetherin and a re-localization of the residual pool of Tetherin in a perinuclear compartment that co-stained with the TGN marker TGN46 and Vpu itself. This re-localization of Tetherin was also observed with a Vpu mutant unable to recruit beta-TrCP, suggesting that this activity is taking place independently from beta-TrCP-mediated trafficking and/or degradation processes. We also show that Vpu co-immunoprecipitates with Tetherin and that this interaction involves the transmembrane domains of the two proteins. Importantly, this association was found to be critical for reducing cell-surface Tetherin expression, re-localizing the restriction factor in the TGN and promoting HIV-1 release. Overall, our results suggest that association of Vpu to Tetherin affects the outward trafficking and/or recycling of the restriction factor from the TGN and as a result promotes its sequestration away from the PM where productive HIV-1 assembly takes place. This mechanism of antagonism that results in TGN trapping is likely to be augmented by beta-TrCP-dependent degradation, underlining the need for complementary and perhaps synergistic strategies to effectively counteract the powerful restrictive effects of human Tetherin.

Development of Free Space Method for Material Characterisation and GPR Study & A Case Study on Biological Samples

The thesis mainly focuses on material characterization in different environments: freely available samples taken in planar fonn, biological samples available in small quantities and buried objects.Free space method, finds many applications in the fields of industry, medicine and communication. As it is a non-contact method, it can be employed for monitoring the electrical properties of materials moving through a conveyor belt in real time. Also, measurement on such systems at high temperature is possible. NID theory can be applied to the characterization of thin films. Dielectric properties of thin films deposited on any dielectric substrate can be determined. ln chemical industry, the stages of a chemical reaction can be monitored online. Online monitoring will be more efficient as it saves time and avoids risk of sample collection.Dielectric contrast is one of the main factors, which decides the detectability of a system. lt could be noted that the two dielectric objects of same dielectric constant 3.2 (s, of plastic mine) placed in a medium of dielectric constant 2.56 (er of sand) could even be detected employing the time domain analysis of the reflected signal. This type of detection finds strategic importance as it provides solution to the problem of clearance of non-metallic mines. The demining of these mines using the conventional techniques had been proved futile. The studies on the detection of voids and leakage in pipes find many applications.The determined electrical properties of tissues can be used for numerical modeling of cells, microwave imaging, SAR test etc. All these techniques need the accurate determination of dielectric constant. ln the modem world, the use of cellular and other wireless communication systems is booming up. At the same time people are concemed about the hazardous effects of microwaves on living cells. The effect is usually studied on human phantom models. The construction of the models requires the knowledge of the dielectric parameters of the various body tissues. lt is in this context that the present study gains significance. The case study on biological samples shows that the properties of normal and infected body tissues are different. Even though the change in the dielectric properties of infected samples from that of normal one may not be a clear evidence of an ailment, it is an indication of some disorder.ln medical field, the free space method may be adapted for imaging the biological samples. This method can also be used in wireless technology. Evaluation of electrical properties and attenuation of obstacles in the path of RF waves can be done using free waves. An intelligent system for controlling the power output or frequency depending on the feed back values of the attenuation may be developed.The simulation employed in GPR can be extended for the exploration of the effects due to the factors such as the different proportion of water content in the soil, the level and roughness of the soil etc on the reflected signal. This may find applications in geological explorations. ln the detection of mines, a state-of-the art technique for scanning and imaging an active mine field can be developed using GPR. The probing antenna can be attached to a robotic arm capable of three degrees of rotation and the whole detecting system can be housed in a military vehicle. In industry, a system based on the GPR principle can be developed for monitoring liquid or gas through a pipe, as pipe with and without the sample gives different reflection responses. lt may also be implemented for the online monitoring of different stages of extraction and purification of crude petroleum in a plant.Since biological samples show fluctuation in the dielectric nature with time and other physiological conditions, more investigation in this direction should be done. The infected cells at various stages of advancement and the normal cells should be analysed. The results from these comparative studies can be utilized for the detection of the onset of such diseases. Studying the properties of infected tissues at different stages, the threshold of detectability of infected cells can be determined.

Architecture and other Architectures: Mapping the Production of Insular Space in the Pearl River Delta (China) and Jakarta (Indonesia)

Globalization is widely regarded as the rise of the borderless world. However in practice, true globalization points rather to a “spatial logic” by which globalization is manifested locally in the shape of insular space. Globalization in this sense is not merely about the creation of physical fragmentation of space but also the creation of social disintegration. This study tries to proof that global processes also create various forms of insular space leading also to specific social implications. In order to examine the problem this study looks at two cases: China’s Pearl River Delta (PRD) and Jakarta in Indonesia. The PRD case reveals three forms of insular space namely the modular, concealed and the hierarchical. The modular points to the form of enclosed factories where workers are vulnerable for human-right violations due to the absent of public control. The concealed refers to the production of insular space by subtle discrimination against certain social groups in urban space. And the hierarchical points to a production of insular space that is formed by an imbalanced population flow. The Jakarta case attempts to show more types of insularity in relation to the complexity of a mega-city which is shaped by a culture of exclusion. Those are dormant and hollow insularity. The dormant refers to the genesis of insular– radical – community from a culture of resistance. The last type, the hollow, points to the process of making a “pseudo community” where sense of community is not really developed as well as weak social relationship with its surrounding. Although global process creates various expressions of territorial insularization, however, this study finds that the “line of flight” is always present, where the border of insularity is crossed. The PRD’s produces vernacular modernization done by peasants which is less likely to be controlled by the politics of insularization. In Jakarta, the culture of insularization causes urban informalities that have no space, neither spatially nor socially; hence their state of ephemerality continues as a tactic of place-making. This study argues that these crossings possess the potential for reconciling venue to defuse the power of insularity.

Semantic web mining and the representation, analysis, and evolution of web space

Semantic Web Mining aims at combining the two fast-developing research areas Semantic Web and Web Mining. This survey analyzes the convergence of trends from both areas: Growing numbers of researchers work on improving the results of Web Mining by exploiting semantic structures in the Web, and they use Web Mining techniques for building the Semantic Web. Last but not least, these techniques can be used for mining the Semantic Web itself. The second aim of this paper is to use these concepts to circumscribe what Web space is, what it represents and how it can be represented and analyzed. This is used to sketch the role that Semantic Web Mining and the software agents and human agents involved in it can play in the evolution of Web space.

The Inner Meaning of Outer Space: Human Nature and the Celestial Realm

Kant argued that humans possess a priori knowledge of space; although his argument focused on a physics of bodies, it also has implications for a psychology of beings. Many human cultures organize stars in the night sky into constellations (i.e., impose structure); attribute properties, behaviors, and abilities to objects in the celestial realm (i.e., impose meaning); and use perceived regularity in the celestial realms in development of calendars, long-range navigation, agriculture, and astrology (i.e., seek predictability and control). The physical inaccessibility of the celestial realm allows a potent source of metaphor, and also allows projection of myths regarding origin and ascension, places of power, and dwelling places of gods, immortals, and other souls. Developments in astronomy and cosmology influenced views of human nature and the place of humanity in the universe, and these changes parallel declines in egocentrism with human development. Views regarding alleged beings (e.g., angels, extraterrestrials) from the celestial realm (and to how communicate with such beings) are anthropocentric and ignore evolutionary factors in physical and cognitive development. It is suggested that in considering views and uses of the celestial realm, we learn not just about the universe, but also about ourselves. 

Coding of visual space during motor preparation: approaching objects rapidly modulate corticospinal excitability in hand-centered coordinates

Defensive behaviors, such as withdrawing your hand to avoid potentially harmful approaching objects, rely on rapid sensorimotor transformations between visual and motor coordinates. We examined the reference frame for coding visual information about objects approaching the hand during motor preparation. Subjects performed a simple visuomanual task while a task-irrelevant distractor ball rapidly approached a location either near to or far from their hand. After the distractor ball appearance, single pulses of transcranial magnetic stimulation were delivered over the subject's primary motor cortex, eliciting motor evoked potentials (MEPs) in their responding hand. MEP amplitude was reduced when the ball approached near the responding hand, both when the hand was on the left and the right of the midline. Strikingly, this suppression occurred very early, at 70-80ms after ball appearance, and was not modified by visual fixation location. Furthermore, it was selective for approaching balls, since static visual distractors did not modulate MEP amplitude. Together with additional behavioral measurements, we provide converging evidence for automatic hand-centered coding of visual space in the human brain.

Integrating control systems defined on the frame bundles of the space forms

This paper considers left-invariant control systems defined on the orthonormal frame bundles of simply connected manifolds of constant sectional curvature, namely the space forms Euclidean space E-3, the sphere S-3 and Hyperboloid H-3 with the corresponding frame bundles equal to the Euclidean group of motions SE(3), the rotation group SO(4) and the Lorentz group SO(1, 3). Orthonormal frame bundles of space forms coincide with their isometry groups and therefore the focus shifts to left-invariant control systems defined on Lie groups. In this paper a method for integrating these systems is given where the controls are time-independent. In the Euclidean case the elements of the Lie algebra se(3) are often referred to as twists. For constant twist motions, the corresponding curves g(t) is an element of SE(3) are known as screw motions, given in closed form by using the well known Rodrigues' formula. However, this formula is only applicable to the Euclidean case. This paper gives a method for computing the non-Euclidean screw motions in closed form. This involves decoupling the system into two lower dimensional systems using the double cover properties of Lie groups, then the lower dimensional systems are solved explicitly in closed form.