Coupling model uncertainty for coupled rainfall/runoff and surface water quality models in river problems

Coupled hydrology and water quality models are an important tool today, used in the understanding and management of surface water and watershed areas. Such problems are generally subject to substantial uncertainty in parameters, process understanding, and data. Component models, drawing on different data, concepts, and structures, are affected differently by each of these uncertain elements. This paper proposes a framework wherein the response of component models to their respective uncertain elements can be quantified and assessed, using a hydrological model and water quality model as two exemplars. The resulting assessments can be used to identify model coupling strategies that permit more appropriate use and calibration of individual models, and a better overall coupled model response. One key finding was that an approximate balance of water quality and hydrological model responses can be obtained using both the QUAL2E and Mike11 water quality models. The balance point, however, does not support a particularly narrow surface response (or stringent calibration criteria) with respect to the water quality calibration data, at least in the case examined here. Additionally, it is clear from the results presented that the structural source of uncertainty is at least as significant as parameter-based uncertainties in areal models. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Characteristic rainfall for warning of debris flows

A characteristic rainfall is introduced to overcome the difficulties encountered in determining a critical rainfall value for triggering debris flow. The characteristic value is defined as the rainfall at which debris-flow occurrence probability shows a rapid increase, and can be used as a warning rainfall threshold for debris flows. Investigation of recorded debris flows and 24-hour rainfall data at Jiangjia basin, Yunnan Province, in southwestern China, demonstrates the existence of such a characteristic rainfall. It was found that the characteristic rainfall corresponds to the daily rainfall of 90% cumulative probability by analyzing the basin's daily rainfall histogram. The result provides a simple and useful method for estimating a debris-flow warning rainfall threshold from the daily rainfall distribution. It was applied to estimate the debris-flow warning rainfall threshold for the Subaohe basin, a watershed in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake zone with many physical characteristics similar to those of the Jiangjia basin.

Adsorbed silica in stalagmite carbonate and its relationship to past rainfall

IEECAS SKLLQG

delta C-13 variation of C-3 and C-4 plants across an Asian monsoon rainfall gradient in arid northwestern China

IEECAS SKLLQG

Modeling of Hillslope Runoff and Soil Erosion at Rainfall Events Using Cellular Automata Approach

National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars of China [40225004]; National Natural Science Foundation of China [40471048]

Rainfall infiltration and soil hydrological characteristics below ancient forest, planted forest, and grassland in a temperate northern climate

How rainfall infiltration rate and soil hydrological characteristics develop over time under forests of different ages in temperate regions is poorly understood. In this study, infiltration rate and soil hydrological characteristics were investigated under forests of different ages and under grassland. Soil hydraulic characteristics were measured at different scales under a 250 year old grazed grassland (GL), a six (6 yr) and 48 (48 yr) year old Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) plantation, remnant 300 year old individual Scots pines (OT) and a 4000 year old Caledonian Forest (AF). In-situ field saturated hydraulic conductivity (Kfs) was measured and visible root:soil area was estimated from soil pits. Macroporosity, pore structure, and macropore connectivity were estimated from X-ray tomography of soil cores, and from water-release characteristics. At all scales the median values for Kfs, root fraction, macro-porosity and connectivity values tended to AF > OT > 48 yr > GL > 6 yr, indicating that infiltration rates and water storage increased with forest age. The remnant Caledonian Forest had a huge range of Kfs (12 to > 4922 mm h-1), with maximum Kfs values 7 to 15 times larger than 48-year-old Scots pine plantation, suggesting that undisturbed old forests, with high rainfall and minimal evapotranspiration in winter, may act as important areas for water storage and sinks for storm rainfall to infiltrate and transport to deeper soil layers via preferential flow. The importance of the development of soil hydrological characteristics under different aged forests is discussed.

Scale-wise evolution of rainfall probability density functions fingerprints the rainfall generation mechanism

© 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.The cross-scale probabilistic structure of rainfall intensity records collected over time scales ranging from hours to decades at sites dominated by both convective and frontal systems is investigated. Across these sites, intermittency build-up from slow to fast time-scales is analyzed in terms of heavy tailed and asymmetric signatures in the scale-wise evolution of rainfall probability density functions (pdfs). The analysis demonstrates that rainfall records dominated by convective storms develop heavier-Tailed power law pdfs toward finer scales when compared with their frontal systems counterpart. Also, a concomitant marked asymmetry build-up emerges at such finer time scales. A scale-dependent probabilistic description of such fat tails and asymmetry appearance is proposed based on a modified q-Gaussian model, able to describe the cross-scale rainfall pdfs in terms of the nonextensivity parameter q, a lacunarity (intermittency) correction and a tail asymmetry coefficient, linked to the rainfall generation mechanism.

Intensification of summer rainfall variability in the southeastern United States during recent decades

The variability of summer precipitation in the southeastern United States is examined in this study using 60-yr (1948-2007) rainfall data. The Southeast summer rainfalls exhibited higher interannual variability with more intense summer droughts and anomalous wetness in the recent 30 years (1978-2007) than in the prior 30 years (1948-77). Such intensification of summer rainfall variability was consistent with a decrease of light (0.1-1 mm day-1) and medium (1-10 mm day-1) rainfall events during extremely dry summers and an increase of heavy (.10 mm day-1) rainfall events in extremely wet summers. Changes in rainfall variability were also accompanied by a southward shift of the region of maximum zonal wind variability at the jet stream level in the latter period. The covariability between the Southeast summer precipitation and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is also analyzed using the singular value decomposition (SVD) method. It is shown that the increase of Southeast summer precipitation variability is primarily associated with a higher SST variability across the equatorial Atlantic and also SST warming in the Atlantic. © 2010 American Meteorological Society.