Quantifying ecosystem-level consequences of ocean acidification and warming by scaling up individual level responses of a predator snail and its trophic interactions

Understanding long‐term, ecosystem‐level impacts of climate change is challenging because experimental research frequently focuses on short‐term, individual‐level impacts in isolation. We address this shortcoming first through an interdisciplinary ensemble of novel experimental techniques to investigate the impacts of 14‐month exposure to ocean acidification and warming (OAW) on the physiology, activity, predatory behaviour and susceptibility to predation of an important marine gastropod (Nucella lapillus). We simultaneously estimated the potential impacts of these global drivers on N. lapillus population dynamics and dispersal parameters. We then used these data to parameterize a dynamic bioclimatic envelope model, to investigate the consequences of OAW on the distribution of the species in the wider NE Atlantic region by 2100. The model accounts also for changes in the distribution of resources, suitable habitat and environment simulated by finely resolved biogeochemical models, under three IPCC global emissions scenarios. The experiments showed that temperature had the greatest impact on individual‐level responses, while acidification had a similarly important role in the mediation of predatory behaviour and susceptibility to predators. Changes in Nucella predatory behaviour appeared to serve as a strategy to mitigate individual‐level impacts of acidification, but the development of this response may be limited in the presence of predators. The model projected significant large‐scale changes in the distribution of Nucella by the year 2100 that were exacerbated by rising greenhouse gas emissions. These changes were spatially heterogeneous, as the degree of impact of OAW on the combination of responses considered by the model varied depending on local‐environmental conditions and resource availability. Such changes in macro‐scale distributions cannot be predicted by investigating individual‐level impacts in isolation, or by considering climate stressors separately. Scaling up the results of experimental climate change research requires approaches that account for long‐term, multiscale responses to multiple stressors, in an ecosystem context.

Quantifying the impact of environmental variables upon catch-per-unit-effort of the Blue Shark Prionace glauca in the Western English Channel

The effect of environmental variables on blue shark Prionace glauca catch per unit effort (CPUE) in a recreational fishery in the western English Channel, between June and September 1998–2011, was quantified using generalized additive models (GAMs). Sea surface temperature (SST) explained 1·4% of GAM deviance, and highest CPUE occurred at 16·7° C, reflecting the optimal thermal preferences of this species. Surface chlorophyll a concentration (CHL) significantly affected CPUE and caused 27·5% of GAM deviance. Additionally, increasing CHL led to rising CPUE, probably due to higher productivity supporting greater prey biomass. The density of shelf-sea tidal mixing fronts explained 5% of GAM deviance, but was non-significant, with increasing front density negatively affecting CPUE. Time-lagged frontal density significantly affected CPUE, however, causing 12·6% of the deviance in a second GAM and displayed a positive correlation. This outcome suggested a delay between the evolution of frontal features and the subsequent accumulation of productivity and attraction of higher trophic level predators, such as P. glauca.

Quantifying the impact of environmental variables upon catch-per-unit-effort of the Blue Shark Prionace glauca in the Western English Channel

The effect of environmental variables on blue shark Prionace glauca catch per unit effort (CPUE) in a recreational fishery in the western English Channel, between June and September 1998–2011, was quantified using generalized additive models (GAMs). Sea surface temperature (SST) explained 1·4% of GAM deviance, and highest CPUE occurred at 16·7° C, reflecting the optimal thermal preferences of this species. Surface chlorophyll a concentration (CHL) significantly affected CPUE and caused 27·5% of GAM deviance. Additionally, increasing CHL led to rising CPUE, probably due to higher productivity supporting greater prey biomass. The density of shelf-sea tidal mixing fronts explained 5% of GAM deviance, but was non-significant, with increasing front density negatively affecting CPUE. Time-lagged frontal density significantly affected CPUE, however, causing 12·6% of the deviance in a second GAM and displayed a positive correlation. This outcome suggested a delay between the evolution of frontal features and the subsequent accumulation of productivity and attraction of higher trophic level predators, such as P. glauca.

Basking sharks and oceanographic fronts: quantifying associations in the north‐east Atlantic

Understanding the mechanisms linking oceanographic processes and marine vertebrate habitat use is critical to effective management of populations of conservation concern. The basking shark Cetorhinus maximus has been shown to associate with oceanographic fronts – physical interfaces at the transitions between water masses – to exploit foraging opportunities resulting from aggregation of zooplankton. However, the scale, significance and variability of these observed associations have not yet been established. Here, we quantify the influence of mesoscale (10s – 100s km) frontal activity on habitat use over timescales of weeks to months. We use animal-mounted archival tracking with composite front mapping via Earth Observation (EO) remote sensing to provide an oceanographic context to individual shark movements. We investigate levels of association with fronts occurring over two spatio-temporal scales, (i) broad-scale seasonally persistent frontal zones and (ii) contemporaneous mesoscale thermal and chl-a fronts. Using random walk simulations and logistic regression within an iterative generalised linear mixed modelling (GLMM) framework, we find that seasonal front frequency is a significant predictor of shark presence. Temporally-matched oceanographic metrics also indicate that sharks demonstrate a preference for productive regions, and associate with contemporaneous thermal and chl-a fronts more frequently than could be expected at random. Moreover, we highlight the importance of cross-frontal temperature change and persistence, which appear to interact to affect the degree of prey aggregation along thermal fronts. These insights have clear implications for understanding the preferred habitats of basking sharks in the context of anthropogenic threat management and marine spatial planning in the northeast Atlantic.

Basking sharks and oceanographic fronts: quantifying associations in the north-east Atlantic

Understanding the mechanisms linking oceanographic processes and marine vertebrate habitat use is critical to effective management of populations of conservation concern. The basking shark Cetorhinus maximus has been shown to associate with oceanographic fronts – physical interfaces at the transitions between water masses – to exploit foraging opportunities resulting from aggregation of zooplankton. However, the scale, significance and variability of these observed associations have not yet been established. Here, we quantify the influence of mesoscale (10s – 100s km) frontal activity on habitat use over timescales of weeks to months. We use animal-mounted archival tracking with composite front mapping via Earth Observation (EO) remote sensing to provide an oceanographic context to individual shark movements. We investigate levels of association with fronts occurring over two spatio-temporal scales, (i) broad-scale seasonally persistent frontal zones and (ii) contemporaneous mesoscale thermal and chl-a fronts. Using random walk simulations and logistic regression within an iterative generalised linear mixed modelling (GLMM) framework, we find that seasonal front frequency is a significant predictor of shark presence. Temporally-matched oceanographic metrics also indicate that sharks demonstrate a preference for productive regions, and associate with contemporaneous thermal and chl-a fronts more frequently than could be expected at random. Moreover, we highlight the importance of cross-frontal temperature change and persistence, which appear to interact to affect the degree of prey aggregation along thermal fronts. These insights have clear implications for understanding the preferred habitats of basking sharks in the context of anthropogenic threat management and marine spatial planning in the northeast Atlantic.

Basking sharks and oceanographic fronts: quantifying associations in the north-east Atlantic

Understanding the mechanisms linking oceanographic processes and marine vertebrate habitat use is critical to effective management of populations of conservation concern. The basking shark Cetorhinus maximus has been shown to associate with oceanographic fronts – physical interfaces at the transitions between water masses – to exploit foraging opportunities resulting from aggregation of zooplankton. However, the scale, significance and variability of these observed associations have not yet been established. Here, we quantify the influence of mesoscale (10s – 100s km) frontal activity on habitat use over timescales of weeks to months. We use animal-mounted archival tracking with composite front mapping via Earth Observation (EO) remote sensing to provide an oceanographic context to individual shark movements. We investigate levels of association with fronts occurring over two spatio-temporal scales, (i) broad-scale seasonally persistent frontal zones and (ii) contemporaneous mesoscale thermal and chl-a fronts. Using random walk simulations and logistic regression within an iterative generalised linear mixed modelling (GLMM) framework, we find that seasonal front frequency is a significant predictor of shark presence. Temporally-matched oceanographic metrics also indicate that sharks demonstrate a preference for productive regions, and associate with contemporaneous thermal and chl-a fronts more frequently than could be expected at random. Moreover, we highlight the importance of cross-frontal temperature change and persistence, which appear to interact to affect the degree of prey aggregation along thermal fronts. These insights have clear implications for understanding the preferred habitats of basking sharks in the context of anthropogenic threat management and marine spatial planning in the northeast Atlantic.

Quantifying pursuit diving seabirds' associations with fine-scale physical features in a high tidal energy environment

The rapid increase in the number of tidal stream turbine arrays will create novel and unprecedented levels of anthropogenic activity within habitats characterized by horizontal current speeds exceeding 2 ms−1. However, the potential impacts on pursuit‐diving seabirds exploiting these tidal stream environments remain largely unknown. Identifying similarities between the fine‐scale physical features (100s of metres) suitable for array installations, and those associated with foraging pursuit‐diving seabirds, could identify which species are most vulnerable to either collisions with moving components, or displacement from these installations. A combination of vessel‐based observational surveys, Finite Volume Community Ocean Model outputs and hydroacoustic seabed surveys provided concurrent measures of foraging distributions and physical characteristics at a fine temporal (15 min) and spatial (500 m) resolution across a tidal stream environment suitable for array installations, during both breeding and non‐breeding seasons. These data sets were then used to test for associations between foraging pursuit‐diving seabirds (Atlantic puffins Fratercula arctica, black guillemots Cepphus grylle, common guillemots Uria aalge, European shags Phalacrocorax aristotelis) and physical features. These species were associated with areas of fast horizontal currents, slow horizontal currents, high turbulence, downward vertical currents and also hard–rough seabeds. The identity and strength of associations differed among species, and also within species between seasons, indicative of interspecific and intraspecific variations in habitat use. However, Atlantic puffins were associated particularly strongly with areas of fast horizontal currents during breeding seasons, and European shags with areas of rough–hard seabeds and downward vertical currents during non‐breeding seasons. Synthesis and applications. Atlantic puffins’ strong association with fast horizontal current speeds indicates that they are particularly likely to interact with installations during breeding seasons. Any post‐installation monitoring and mitigation measures should therefore focus on this species and season. The multi‐species associations with high turbulence and downward vertical currents, which often coincide with fast horizontal current speeds, also highlight useful pre‐installation mitigation measures via the omission of devices from these areas, reducing the overall likelihood of interactions. Environmental impact assessments (EIA) generally involve once‐a‐month surveys across 2‐year periods. However, the approaches used in this study show that more focussed surveys can greatly benefit management strategies aiming to reduce the likelihood of negative impacts by facilitating the development of targeted mitigation measures. It is therefore recommended that these approaches contribute towards EIA within development sites.

Quantifying Alcohol-Related Mortality: Should Alcohol-Related Contributory Causes of Death be Included?

Aims: The aim of the study was to assess whether alcohol-related mortality data in the UK should be extended to include contributory as well as underlying cause of death. Methods: A total of 101,320 deaths registered in Northern Ireland between 2001 and 2007 were analysed to determine the quantity and characteristics of those with an underlying or contributory alcohol-related cause of death. Results: Alcohol was found to be an underlying cause of death in 1690 cases (1.7% of deaths) and a contributory cause in a further 1105 cases. Analyses show that the addition of alcohol-related contributory causes of deaths would increase the male-female ratio, result in steeper socio-economic gradients and amplify the apparent rate of increase of alcohol-related deaths. The significant contribution of alcohol to external causes of death, such as accidents and suicide, is also more evident. Conclusions: Using only underlying cause of death undoubtedly underestimates the burden of alcohol-related harm and may provide an inaccurate picture of those most likely to suffer from an alcohol-related death, especially among younger men.

Quantifying the influence of humic acid adsorption on colloidal microsphere deposition onto iron-oxide-coated sand.

This article describes an approach for quantifying microsphere deposition onto iron-oxide-coated sand under the influence of adsorbed Suwannee River Humic Acid (SRHA). The experimental technique involved a triple pulse injection of model latex microspheres (microspheres) in pulses of (1) microspheres, followed by (2) SRHA, and then (3) microspheres, into a column filled with iron-coated quartz sand as a water-saturated porous medium. A random sequential adsorption model (RSA) simulated the gradual rise in the first (microsphere) breakthrough curve (BTC). Using the same model calibration parameters a dramatic increase in concentration at the start of the second particle BTC, generated after SRHA injection, could be simulated by matching microsphere concentrations to extrapolated RSA output. RSA results and microsphere/SRHA recoveries showed that 1 mg of SRHA could block 5.90 plus or minus 0.14 x 10^9 microsphere deposition sites. This figure was consistent between experiments injecting different SRHA masses, despite contrasting microsphere deposition/release regimes generating the second microsphere BTC.

Quantifying forage specialisation in polyphagic insects: the polylectic and rare solitary bee, Colletes floralis (Hymenoptera: Colletidae)

Many insect species vary in their degree of foraging specialisation, with many bee species considered polyphagic (polylectic). Wild, non-managed bee species vary in their conservation status, and species-specific biological traits such as foraging specialisation may play an important role in determining variance in population declines. Current agri-environment schemes (AESs) prescribe the introduction of flower seed mixes for agricultural systems to aid the conservation of wild bees. However, the extent to which flower combinations adequately meet bee foraging requirements is poorly known. We quantitatively assessed pollen use and selectivity using two statistical approaches: Bailey's Intervals and Compositional Analysis, in an examplar species, a purportedly polylectic and rare bee, Colletes floralis, across 7 sites through detailed analysis of bee scopal pollen loads and flower abundance. Both approaches provided good congruence, but Compositional Analysis was more robust to small sample sizes. We advocate its use for the quantitative determination of foraging behaviour and dietary preference. Although C. floralis is polylectic, it showed a clear dietary preference for plants within the family Apiaceae. Where Apiaceae was uncommon, the species exploited alternative resources. Other plant families, such as the Apiaceae, could be included, or have their proportion increased in AES seed mixes, to aid the management of C. floralis and potentially other wild solitary bees of conservation concern. © 2011 The Authors. Insect Conservation and Diversity © 2011 The Royal Entomological Society.