Regional business cycles and the emergence of sheltered economies in the southern periphery of Europe. Bruges European Economic Research (BEER) Papers 7/November 2006

Recent research has highlighted that in the last few years the evolution of regional disparities in many European states has become pro-cyclical. This represents a change with respect to the predominantly anti-cyclical pattern of the 1960s and 1970s. This paper addresses the question of whether and when this change has taken place in the southern periphery of Europe, before analyzing the factors that may have played a role in such a change. The analysis relies on a regional database that includes the evolution of the GDP per capita of NUTS II regions in five European countries (France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) between 1980 and 2000. The results of the analysis support the hypothesis of a change towards a pro-cyclical evolution of regional disparities in the cases of Italy, Portugal, and Spain, but not in those of Greece and France. A relationship between these pro-cyclical patters and the emergence of less dynamic sheltered economies is also detected in peripheral regions. This lack of dynamism is related to the fact that numerous peripheral areas in southern Europe have become increasingly dependent on factors such as transfers or public investment and employment, and therefore are less exposed to changes in market conditions.

Growth for Europe – Is the Juncker Plan the answer? EPC Discussion Paper, 20 March 2015

Executive Summary. The euro area is still suffering from low growth and high unemployment. For the recovery to become a reality, there needs to be a balance between fiscal discipline, supply side improvements and actions aimed at stimulating demand and growth. Increasing investment, both private and public, are important components in overcoming the recession. This becomes especially clear when comparing investment dynamics during the crisis with pre-crisis levels. Total investment is still much lower than before the crisis and public investment is well below its pre-crisis peak as well. In late November 2014, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker submitted a long-awaited proposal for a European Investment Plan that aims to stimulate private investment. Apart from the creation of the new European Fund for Strategic Investment (EFSI), through which private investors will receive public guarantees, the investment plan also aims to provide project assistance and improve the Single Market by removing sector-specific or other financial barriers to investment. While generally perceived as a first positive step towards increasing private investment, some commentators have expressed reservations about the plan. These include, among others, the lack of fresh money for the initial contributions to EFSI. Since a substantial amount of these contributions is reshuffled from other places in the European budget, the question was raised whether EFSI can fund additional projects or just replicates investment projects that would have happened without the plan. Other criticism relates to the high estimate of the expected leverage ratio of 1:15, and to the risk that the plan will only have a limited impact on stressed economies. The Juncker Plan addresses private investment, but so far there really is no clear strategy to stimulate productive public investment on the European and national level. Countries with fiscal space are reluctant to engage in higher spending, while those willing and in need of it the most are restricted by the rules. Member States and the Commission should therefore discuss options for further improving the euro area's economic governance. In addition to urging countries with fiscal space to increase investing in national public goods, investment could be treated with budget flexibility. One could, for instance, upgrade the importance of public investment in the European Semester. Additional deficit granted for public investment purposes could be attached to certain Country-Specific Recommendations. Another solution would be to allow some form of budget flexibility, such as the formulation of a new Golden Rule for productive public investment becoming part of the Stability and Growth Pact's application. Besides relying on a larger amount of flexibility in the rules, the Financial Transaction Tax (FTT) could be another solution to fund investment in European public goods. It will also be necessary to overcome the mistrust among Member States that is preventing further action. The political bargain of stronger conditionality, such as through contractual arrangements, could improve the situation. Increased trust will also be an important condition for tackling long-reaching economic governance reforms such as the creation of a Fiscal Capacity, which could take the form of a macroeconomic shock insurance. Such a Fiscal Capacity could make a real difference in providing the necessary funding to maintain productive public investment, even in times of deep recessions. The proposals presented do not attempt to be conclusive, but shall rather be an input for a wider debate on how to increase growth and employment in Europe. The paper draws heavily on the discussion of a Workshop on Growth and Investment, which the European Policy Centre (EPC) hosted on 10 December 2014 under Chatham-House Rule, with a group of economists and representatives from the European institutions.

How EU Fiscal Norms Will Become a Safety Net for the Failure of National Golden Rules. European Policy Brief No. 6, January 2012

If introduced successfully, national Golden Rules will completely overturn fiscal governance in the eurozone. Golden Rules would almost always be more stringent than EU-level fiscal norms. EU fiscal norms will hence evolve into a safety net in case a Golden Rule fails. The possibility of such a failure is, indeed, not to be dismissed. Because of the severity of the Golden Rules, eurozone leaders should reflect on their design. There is a real risk that they will undercut public investment, which would be at the cost of the EU’s other long-term challenges.

Rationales, rhetoric and realities:FIFA’s World Cup in South Africa 2010 and Brazil 2014

The 2010 FIFA World Cup was heralded by mainstream media outlets, the local organisers, the South African government and FIFA as an unequivocal success. The month-long spectacle saw South Africa take centre stage and host the world’s largest single sporting event. This occurred against a backdrop of rationales and promises made that the event would leave lasting legacies for all, in particular marginalised South Africans. The reality is quite different. In this article we consider the South African World Cup in the build up to Brazil 2014. We argue that the rationales and rhetoric are similar in both countries and suggest the reality for Brazil 2014 will be the same as South Africa 2010 in that the mega-event will be primarily funded by significant public investment, while the primary beneficiaries will be private capital and FIFA.

Assessment of policies for innovative financing in infrastructure systems

Infrastructure systems are drivers of the economy in the nation. A dollar spent on infrastructure development yields roughly double the initial spending in ultimate economic output in the short term; and over a twenty-year period, and generalized ‘public investment’ produces an aggregated $3.21 of economic activity per $1.00 spent [1]. Thus, formulation of policies pertaining to infrastructure investment and development is of significance affecting the social and economic wellbeing of the nation. The aim of this policy brief is to evaluate innovative financing in infrastructure systems from two different perspectives: (1) through consideration of the current condition of infrastructure in the U.S., the current trends in public spending, and the emerging innovative financing tools; (2) through evaluation of the roles and interactions of different agencies in the creation and the diffusion of innovative financing tools. Then using the example of transportation financing, the policy brief provides an assessment of policy landscapes which could lead to the closure of infrastructure financing gap in the U.S and proposes strategies for citizen involvement to gain public support of innovative financing.

Almetrics: measuring the influence of the media on the social impact of research

Social media is changing the way we interact, present ideas and information and judge the quality of content and contributions. In recent years there have been hundreds of platforms to freely share all kinds of information and connect across networks. These new tools generate activity statistics and interactions among users such as mentions, retweets, conversations, comments on blogs or Facebook; managers references showing popularity ratings of more references shared by other researchers or repositories that generate statistics of visits or downloads of articles. This paper analyzes that have meaning and implications altmetrics, what are its advantages and critical platforms (Almetric.com, ImpactStory, Plos altmetrics, PlumX), reports progress and benefits for authors, publishers and librarians. It concluded that the value of alternative metrics as a complementary tool citation analysis is evident, although it is suggested that you should dig deeper into this issue to unravel the meaning and the potential value of these indicators to assess their potential.

Using Habitat Equivalency Analysis to Assess the Cost Effectiveness of Restoration Outcomes in Four Institutional Contexts

At the national level, with a fixed amount of resources available for public investment in the restoration of biodiversity, it is difficult to prioritize alternative restoration projects. One way to do this is to assess the level of ecosystem services delivered by these projects and to compare them with their costs. The challenge is to derive a common unit of measurement for ecosystem services in order to compare projects which are carried out in different institutional contexts having different goals (application of environmental laws, management of natural reserves, etc.). This paper assesses the use of habitat equivalency analysis (HEA) as a tool to evaluate ecosystem services provided by restoration projects developed in different institutional contexts. This tool was initially developed to quantify the level of ecosystem services required to compensate for non-market impacts coming from accidental pollution in the US. In this paper, HEA is used to assess the cost effectiveness of several restoration projects in relation to different environmental policies, using case studies based in France. Four case studies were used: the creation of a market for wetlands, public acceptance of a port development project, the rehabilitation of marshes to mitigate nitrate loading to the sea, and the restoration of streams in a protected area. Our main conclusion is that HEA can provide a simple tool to clarify the objectives of restoration projects, to compare the cost and effectiveness of these projects, and to carry out trade-offs, without requiring significant amounts of human or technical resources.

Built heritage-making and socioeconomic renewal in declining rural areas : evidence from Portugal

This article focuses on the connections between built heritage-making and socioeconomic renewal in declining rural areas. Drawing on fieldwork in twelve rural villages in eastern Portugal, it sheds light on the outcomes of a State-led programme, the objectives of which were to renovate the historic built fabric and generate tourism revenue for a region with declining population levels. Overall, the programme was successful in terms of preservation / conservation of monuments and the built fabric, but failed to stimulate the anticipated social and economic development. The conclusion is that the making of heritage spaces is not the remedy for the economic and demographic ills of rural areas, notwithstanding the positive effect that such measures may have in certain cases.

Asociaciones público privadas para la infraestructura social en salud: hacia la identificación de pautas para la definición de un modelo colombiano

Las asociaciones público privadas "APP" han sido utilizadas para distribuir riesgos y fomentar el desarrollo de los países a través de la provisión de infraestructura. Así, se implementan para proveer bienes y servicios públicos tanto en los sectores de infraestructura productiva (carreteras, puertos, aeropuertos, trenes), como en el sector de infraestructura social (escuelas, universidades, hospitales, edificaciones públicas, etc.). En Colombia, ante la escasez de recursos públicos y la necesidad de formular posiibles soluciones a la crisis del sector salud, surge como una posible solución el modelo de APP consagrado en la Ley 1508 de 2008.

Public Interests, Private Disputes: Investment Arbitration and the Public Good

This paper seeks to investigate the bases for resistance to arbitration in general -and investor arbitration in particular- focusing on the way in which arbitral tribunals deal with notions of public interest and the public good. The paper hypothesises that while courts have within their terms of reference the capacity to consider notions of public interest, arbitral tribunals do not. It is this core difference in the scope of decision making between the two bodies that could render privately organised dispute resolution unsuitable for disputes that have public aspects, like investor-state disputes. The paper discusses the meaning of public interest and the public good as found in the literature. It then proceeds to consider how tribunals in the investment field have dealt with these concepts. This leads to a conclusion urging not abandonment of arbitration as a component of dispute resolution, but caution. It is argued that unchecked growth in private dispute resolution can threaten perceptions of legitimacy and democratic accountability. The paper adopts a socio-legal methodology in considering the effect of legal mechanisms on social and political phenomena. It is also informed by a law and economics methodology in addressing impacts of dispute resolution mechanisms on economic efficiency. The contribution of the paper rests on theorising motivations for resistance to private dispute resolution, a topical issue in light of the TTIP debate.

Investment in human capital in a macrodynamic framework: redistributive taxation, public debt and welfare

None