Required returns for real estate in UK pension fund portfolios

The position of Real Estate within a multi-asset portfolio has received considerable attention recently. Previous research has concentrated on the percentage holding property would achieve given its risk/return characteristics. Such studies have invariably used Modern Portfolio Theory and these approaches have been criticised for both the quality of the real estate data and problems with the methodology itself. The first problem is now well understood, and the second can be addressed by the use of realistic constraints on asset holdings. This paper takes a different approach. We determine the level of return that Real Estate needs to achieve to justify an allocation within the multi asset portfolio. In order to test the importance of the quality of the data we use historic appraisal based and desmoothed returns to examine the sensitivity of the results. Consideration is also given to the Holding period and the imposition of realistic constraints on the asset holdings in order to model portfolios held by pension fund investors. We conclude, using several benchmark levels of portfolio risk and return, that using appraisal based data the required level of return for Real Estate was less than that achieved over the period 1972-1993. The use of desmoothed series can reverse this result at the highest levels of desmoothing although within a restricted holding period Real Estate offered returns in excess of those required to enter the portfolio and might have a role to play in the multi-asset portfolio.

Measuring significant variability characteristics: An assessment of three UK renewables

The variability of renewable energy is widely recognised as a challenge for integrating high levels of renewable generation into electricity systems. However, to explore its implications effectively, variability itself should first be clearly understood. This is particularly true for national electricity systems with high planned penetration of renewables and limited interconnection such as the UK. Variability cannot be considered as a distinct resource property with a single measurable parameter, but is a multi-faceted concept best described by a range of distinct characteristics. This paper identifies relevant characteristics of variability, and considers their implications for energy research. This is done through analysis of wind, solar and tidal current resources, with a primary focus on the Bristol Channel region in the UK. The relationship with electricity demand is considered, alongside the potential benefits of resource diversity. Analysis is presented in terms of persistence, distribution, frequency and correlation between supply and demand. Marked differences are seen between the behaviours of the individual resources, and these give rise to a range of different implications for system integration. Wind shows strong persistence and a useful seasonal pattern, but also a high spread in energy levels at timescales beyond one or two days. The solar resource is most closely correlated with electricity demand, but is undermined by night-time zero values and an even greater spread of monthly energy delivered than wind. In contrast, the tidal resource exhibits very low persistence, but also much greater consistency in energy values assessed across monthly time scales. Whilst this paper focuses primarily on the behaviour of resources, it is noted that discrete variability characteristics can be related to different system impacts. Persistence and predictability are relevant for system balancing, whereas statistical distribution is more relevant when exploring issues of asset utilisation and energy curtailment. Areas of further research are also identified, including the need to assess the value of predictability in relation to other characteristics.

Bias or rationality? The case of UK commercial real estate investment

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to test the hypothesis that investment decision making in the UK direct property market does not conform to the assumption of economic rationality underpinning portfolio theory. Design/methodology/approach – The developing behavioural real estate paradigm is used to challenge the idea that investor “man” is able to perform with economic rationality, specifically with reference to the analysis of the spatial dispersion of the entire UK “investible stock” and “investible locations” against observed spatial patterns of institutional investment. Location quotients are derived, combining different data sets. Findings – Considerably greater variation in institutional property holdings is found across the UK than would be expected given the economic and stock characteristics of local areas. This appears to provide evidence of irrationality (in the strict traditional economic sense) in the behaviour of institutional investors, with possible herding underpinning levels of investment that cannot be explained otherwise. Research limitations/implications – Over time a lack of distinction has developed between the cause and effect of comparatively low levels of development and institutional property investment across the regions. A critical examination of decision making and behaviour in practice could break this cycle, and could in turn promote regional economic growth. Originality/value – The entire “population” of observations is used to demonstrate the relationships between economic theory and investor performance exploring, for the first time, stock and local area characteristics.

Residential property loans and bank performance during property price booms: evidence from Europe

Understanding the performance of banks is of the utmost importance due to the impact the sector may have on economic growth and financial stability. Residential mortgage loans constitute a large proportion of the portfolio of many banks and are one of the key assets in the determination of their performance. Using a dynamic panel model, we analyse the impact of residential mortgage loans on bank profitability and risk, based on a sample of 555 banks in the European Union (EU-15), over the period from 1995 to 2008. We find that an increase in residential mortgage loans seems to improve bank’s performance in terms of both profitability and credit risk in good market, pre-financial crisis, conditions. These findings may aid in explaining why banks rush to lend to property during booms because of the positive effect it has on performance. The results also show that credit risk and profitability are lower during the upturn in the residential property cycle.

Location, location, location? Analysing property rents in medieval Gloucester

Although medieval rentals have been extensively studied, few scholars have used them to analyse variations in the rents paid on individual properties within a town. It has been claimed that medieval rents did not reflect economic values or market forces, but were set according to social and political rather than economic criteria, and remained ossified at customary levels. This paper uses hedonic regression methods to test whether property rents in medieval Gloucester were influenced by classic economic factors such as the location and use of a property. It investigates both rents and local rates (landgavel), and explores the relationship between the two. It also examines spatial autocorrelation. It finds significant relationships between urban rents and property characteristics that are similar to those found in modern studies. The findings are consistent with the view that, in Gloucester at least, medieval rents were strongly influenced by classical economic factors working through a competitive urban property market.

Listed property trusts and downside systematic risk sensitivity

Purpose: This paper aims to identify and examine the determinants of downside systematic risk in Australian listed property trusts (LPTs).

Design/methodology/approach: Capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and lower partial moment-CAPM (LPM-CAPM) are employed to compute both systematic risk and downside systematic risk. The methodology of Patel and Olsen and Chaudhry et al. is adopted to examine the determinants of systematic risk and downside systematic risk.

Findings: The results confirm that systematic risk and downside systematic risk can be individually identified. There is little evidence to support the existence of linkages between systematic risk in Australian LPTs and financial/management structure determinants. On the other hand, downside systematic risk is directly related to the leverage/management structure of a LPT. The results are also robust after controlling for the LPTs' investment characteristics and varying target rates of return.

Practical implications: Investors and real estate analysts should conscious with the higher returns from high leverage and internally managed LPTs. Although there is no evidence that these higher returns are related to higher systematic risk, there could be the compensation for higher downside systematic risk.

Originality/value: This study provides invaluable insights into the management of real estate risk in Australian LPTs with implications for REITs in other countries. Unlike previous studies of systematic risk in REITs or LPTs, this is the first study to assess downside systematic risk and explore the determinants of downside systematic risk in LPTs.

Identifying linkages between generations and the property market : the effect on residential and retail property

In the analysis of property markets, especially the retail and residential sectors, increasing importance is being given to the role of demography. The impact of economic influences such as interest rate movements, inflation and changes in the labour market are well documented and although these variables are clearly important. they do not incorporate the changing characteristics of the local inhabitants who actually generate the demand. However, demography can provide an invaluable insight into retail and residential property trends, especially over the long term, and are assisted by reliable population datasets with a relatively high level of detail. For example, the emergence of the 'baby boom' generation and the trend towards geographical relocation had a substantial effect on demand for retail and housing products, although little consideration has been given to the effect from the subsequent cohorts, namely generations X,Y and Z. This paper examines the role of demography when researching property markets, with the focus placed on demographic shifts. It discusses trends in arange of demographic variables that have been observed in society. In addition, it highlights linkages with property markets, especially residential and retail property, and draws inferences for long term trends.The study concludes that when conducting research into property markets. it is essential to have a thorough understanding of various demographic variables to predict how they affect demand. An appreciation of the drivers behind generations will assist property researchers to identify future needs, and the subsequent effect this will have on community development involving retail and residential property.

Identifying linkages between generations and community development: the effect on residential and retail property

In the analysis of property markets, especially the retail and residential sectors, increasing importance is being given to the role of demography. The impact of economic influences such as interest rate movements, inflation and changes in the labour market are well documented and although these variables are clearly important, they do not incorporate the changing characteristics of the local inhabitants who actually provide the demand. However, demography can provide an invaluable insight into retail and residential property trends, especially over the long term, and are assisted by reliable population datasets with a relatively high level of detail. For example, the emergence of the 'baby boom' generation shift had a substantial effect on demand for retail and housing products, although little consideration has been given to the effect from the subsequent cohorts, namely generations X, Y and Z.

This paper examines the role of demography when researching property markets, with the focus placed on demographic shifts. It discusses trends in a range of demographic variables that have been observed in society. In addition, it highlights linkages with property markets, especially residential and retail property, and draws inferences for long term trends. The study concludes that when conducting research into property markets, it is essential to have a thorough understanding of various demographic variables to predict how they affect demand. An appreciation of the drivers behind generations will assist property researchers to identify future needs, and the subsequent effect this will have on community development involving retail and residential property.

The Melbourne 2006 Commonwealth Games : what does it mean for the local property market?

In 2006 Melbourne will host the 18th Commonwealth Games with Brisbane being the last Australian city to host this event over two decades ago in 1982. Melbourne has not held a major global sporting event since the 1956 Olympic Games, although the 2006 Commonwealth Games follows on from the successful 2000 Sydney Olympics. These sporting events have continued to grow from strength to strength, and have been assisted by Australia's close affiliation with sport and the widespread global media coverage. In a similar manner to other sporting events that Melbourne hosts, including the Australian Tennis Open, Formula One Grand Prix, Motorcycle Grand Prix, Melbourne Cup and Australian Football League, the city and its inhabitants are consumed by these events. The 2006 Commonwealth Games is certain to follow this trend.
The task of hosting the Commonwealth Games is enormous, although actively pursued in a fierce bidding process by competing cities. The benefits are undisputed and include an influx of visitors to the host city, an opportunity to enhance or rebuild infrastructure such as transport, plus the worldwide focus on the host city before and during the event. A high level of planning is undertaken for years well in advance of the event, and this may have an effect on the surrounding property market. Through the media both buyers and sellers are constantly reminded of the upcoming Games, the venues and the increased demand that will occur. Accordingly, this research investigates the task of hosting a major global sporting event such as the Commonwealth Games, and importantly how affects infrastructure in a host city. Attention is placed on the 2006 Commonwealth Games and the Melbourne property market. Whilst every host city differs in characteristics such as size, location and timing of the event, the findings of this study will assist a future host city to plan for the highly irregular circumstances that accompany a high profile one-off major sporting event.

Economic transition and commercial property markets : China and Poland

This paper discusses the economic transition and the property market emergence in transition economies. It compares the Chinese property market with the Polish market. It preliminarily examines market emergence and maturity in the context of economic transition, comparing the transitions with the emphasis placed on commercial property markets especially their formation and behaviour. Supply and demand for commercial space in China and Poland are also contrasted. As commercial property market behaviour is somewhat driven by market structure formation process and the business cycle, the transition has provided a “common ground” that enables similarities between the property markets in China and Poland. The challenge for state intervention is mainly due to the agency problem which is also a problem in mature markets; it appears that transitional economies do share common features in their emerging property markets. This paper suggests state intervention in market formation and emergence is necessary and essential. However the actual formation and behaviour of property markets have some distinctive characteristics. Value or implication of the study include: knowing the stage of market emergence is essential for making investment decisions, especially when identifying markets with varying backgrounds. This paper is also relevant to policy-makers in the process of facilitating transitions in emerging markets.

Understanding property cycles in a residential market

Purpose – This paper aims to review property cycle theory and the relevance of the larger body of knowledge about cycles with reference to the housing market. It also aims to highlight the lack of research into property cycles in the residential sector on a suburb or smaller region basis, as well as the potential for increased knowledge about cycles to assist to avoid housing stress.

Design/methodology/approach – The paper conducts a literature review of previous cycle research and encourages the use of cycle theory. It discusses the established body of knowledge about business cycles and the office market sector, as well as investigating levels of housing affordability and how detailed knowledge about property cycles can assist to decrease housing affordability in residential areas, which will eventually experience a downturn.

Findings – It is argued that an increased level of certainty about cycle behaviour in particular suburbs will give households a higher level of confidence when considering whether and when to enter the market. Property cycle research has the potential to assist low-income homeowners to better understand the characteristics of cycles and associated risks in each residential.

Research limitations/implications – This is a conceptual paper and has conducted a review of cycle research and housing affordability in certain countries. Some areas or countries may be affected to varying degrees by property cycles and levels of housing affordability.

Practical implications – In extended periods of high volatility it is argued that a better understanding of housing cycles will allow more homeowners to avoid negative equity and the stress associated with repossessions. Property cycles are unavoidable although there is typically relatively little information available in the open market about the timing and amplitude of cycles in individual areas.

Originality/value – This paper is unique as it highlights the potential for property cycles to be used to avoid housing stress in the residential market. Traditionally cycle research is used to increase returns and avoid downturns in the office and/or business sectors.

Viewer characteristics, film context and habituation/desensitisation to filmed violence

This thesis comprises three studies aimed at examining viewers' responses to filmed violence. The first focused on habituation, the second desensitisation and the third compared the paradigms. Results indicated that several factors influence how an individual responds to filmed violence and provide some insight into the impact of repetitive exposure to media violence. The portfolio presents four case studies emphasising the difficulties for assessing risk and associated interventions in the client population of individuals found not guilty because of mental impairment. This as an area of fundamental discord between psychology and law.

Structure-property relationships in plasticized solid polymer electrolytes

The addition of various kinds of plasticizers can enhance the conductivity of polymer electrolyte systems, in some cases by many orders of magnitude. The plasticizer may be a low molecular weight solvent, or be a low molecular weight polymer. As the plasticizer concentration increases there is an inevitable deterioration in material properties. In this work we have investigated the effect of plasticizer on the conductivity, thermal properties and matrial properties of a number of systems including urethane cross-linked polyethers and polyacrylates. In some of the systems, in particular the polyether electrolytes, the plasticizer acts to enhance conduction by acting as a cosolvent for the salt as well as increasing chain flexibility. Its efficacy is dependent on its structure and characteristics as a solvent. Although T_g is lowered in a close to linear fashion with increasing plasticizer content and thereby conductivity increased rapidly, the elastic modulus changes more slowly. This reflects the coupling of conduction to the local mobility of the molecular units of the combined solvent system and the relative decoupling of the mobility and glass transition from the material properties. In these systems the latter are a function mainly of the longer range structure of the polymer network. The changes in conductivity and materials properties are interpreted in terms of a configurational entropy model of the solution.

UV absorption property of bamboo

This article describes ultra violet (UV) light shielding behaviour of Australian grown bamboo (Phyllostachys pubescens). Optical reflectance showed that untreated bamboo plant has UV absorption properties. To reveal the origin of the UV absorption property, its chemical components were extracted using several polar and non-polar solvents. The extracts in most of the polar and non-polar solvents showed UV absorption property. Protic polar solvents showed better ability to extract UV absorbing chemicals than aprotic and non-polar solvents, except hexane. The chemical components of bamboo were analysed by FT-IR spectroscopy and the findings were correlated with the UV absorbance characteristics. The results confirmed that the UV absorption ability of bamboo originates from nothing but lignin. It is thus indicated that the conventional methods to manufacture bamboo fibres, such as complete degumming or viscose methods, that involve the removal of lignin, cannot retain the unique UV absorption property of bamboo plant in bamboo fibres.

Deformation and fracture characteristics of ferrite/bainite dual-phase steels

The deformation and fracture characteristics of a low carbon Si–Mn steel with ferrite/bainite dual–phase structure were investigated by thermo–mechanical controlled process (TMCP). The results showed that the curves of the instantaneous work–hardening factor n* value versus true strain ε are made up with three stages during uniform plastic deformation: n* value is relatively higher at stage I, decreases slowly with ε in stage II, and then decreases quickly with ε in stage III. Compared tothe equiaxed ferrite/bainite dual–phase steel, the quasi–polygonal ferrite/bainite dual–phase steel shows higher tensile strength and n*value in the low strain region. The voids or micro–cracks formed not only at ferrite–bainite interfaces but also within ferrite grains in the necked region, which can improve the property of resistance to crack propagation by reducing local stress concentration of the crack tips.