Effets du cannabis oral et du dronabinol sur la capacité à conduire [Effects of oral cannabis and dronabinol on driving capacity]

Two retrospective epidemiologic studies have shown that cannabis is the main psychoactive substance detected in the blood of drivers suspected of driving under the influence of psychotropic drugs. An oral administration double-blind crossover study was carried out with eight healthy male subjects, aged 22 to 30 years, all occasional cannabis smokers. Three treatments and one placebo were administered to all participants at a two week interval: 20 mg dronabinol, 16.5 mg D9-tétrahydrocannabinol (THC) and 45.7 mg THC as a cannabis milk decoction. Participants were asked to report the subjective drug effects and their willingness to drive under various circumstances on a visual analog scale. Clinical observations, a psychomotor test and a tracking test on a driving simulator were also carried out. Compared to cannabis smoking, THC, 11-OH-THC and THC-COOH blood concentrations remained low through the whole study (<13.1 ng THC/mL,<24.7 ng 11-OH-THC/mL and<99.9 ng THC-COOH/mL). Two subjects experienced deep anxiety symptoms suggesting that this unwanted side-effect may occur when driving under the influence of cannabis or when driving and smoking a joint. No clear association could be found between these adverse reactions and a susceptibility gene to propensity to anxiety and psychotic symptoms (genetic polymorphism of the catechol-O-methyltransferase). The questionnaires have shown that the willingness to drive was lower when the drivers were assigned an insignificant task and was higher when the mission was of crucial importance. The subjects were aware of the effects of cannabis and their performances on the road sign and tracking test were greatly impaired, especially after ingestion of the strongest dose. The Cannabis Influence Factor (CIF) which relies on the molar ratio of active and inactive cannabinoids in blood provided a good estimate of the fitness to drive.

The influence of supplementary health insurance on switching behaviour: evidence from Swiss data.

This paper focuses on the switching behaviour of enrolees in the Swiss basic health insurance system. Even though the new Federal Law on Social Health Insurance (LAMal) was implemented in 1996 to promote competition among health insurers in basic insurance, there is limited evidence of premium convergence within cantons. This indicates that competition has not been effective so far, and reveals some inertia among consumers who seem reluctant to switch to less expensive funds. We investigate one possible barrier to switching behaviour, namely the influence of supplementary insurance. We use survey data on health plan choice (a sample of 1943 individuals whose switching behaviours were observed between 1997 and 2000) as well as administrative data relative to all insurance companies that operated in the 26 Swiss cantons between 1996 and 2005. The decision to switch and the decision to subscribe to a supplementary contract are jointly estimated.Our findings show that holding a supplementary insurance contract substantially decreases the propensity to switch. However, there is no negative impact of supplementary insurance on switching when the individual assesses his/her health as 'very good'. Our results give empirical support to one possible mechanism through which supplementary insurance might influence switching decisions: given that subscribing to basic and supplementary contracts with two different insurers may induce some administrative costs for the subscriber, holding supplementary insurance acts as a barrier to switch if customers who consider themselves 'bad risks' also believe that insurers reject applications for supplementary insurance on these grounds. In comparison with previous research, our main contribution is to offer a possible explanation for consumer inertia. Our analysis illustrates how consumer choice for one's basic health plan interacts with the decision to subscribe to supplementary insurance.

Adenoid Cystic Carcinoma of the Breast: A Rare Cancer Network Study

Purpose/Objective(s): Mammary adenoid cystic carcinoma (ACC) is a rare breast cancer variant. It accounts for less than 0.1% of all invasive breast malignancies. Typically, it presents as a small breast lump with a low propensity to metastasize to regional lymph nodes or distant sites. The aim of this retrospective multicenter Rare Cancer Network study is to assess prognostic factors and patterns of failure in ACC, as well as the role of radiation therapy (RT) in this rare disease. Materials/Methods: Between January 1980 and December 2007, 61 women with breast ACC were included in this study. Median age was 59 years (range, 28-94 years). The majority of the patients had good performance status (49 patients with WHO 0, 12 patients with WHO 1), and 70% of the patients (n = 42) were premenopausal. Surgery consisted of tumorectomy in 35 patients, mastectomy in 20, or quadrantectomy in 6. Median tumor size was 20 mm (range, 6-170 mm). Surgical margins were clear in 50 (82%) patients. Axillary dissection (n = 41) or sentinel node assessment (n = 10) was realized in the majority of the patients. There were 53 (87%) pN0 and 8 pNx (13%) patients. Estrogen (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR) was negative in 43 (71%) and 42 (69%) patients, respectively. In 16 patients (26%), the receptor status was unknown. Adjuvant chemotherapy or hormonotherapy was administered in 8 (13%) and 7 (12%) patients, respectively. Postoperative RT with a median total dose of 50 Gy (1.8-2.0 Gy/fraction; range, 44-70 Gy) was given in 40 patients. Results: With a median follow-up of 79 months (range, 6-285 months), 5-year overall and disease-free survival (DFS) rates were 94% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 88-100%) and 82% (95% CI: 71-93%), respectively. Five-year locoregional control rate was 95% (95% CI: 89-100%). There were only 4 patients with local relapse who were all salvaged successfully, and 4 other patients developed distant metastases. According to the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events v3.0, late toxicity consisted of grade 2-3 cutaneous fibrosis in 4 (10%) patients, grade 1-2 edema in 2 (5%), and grade 3 lung fibrosis in 2 (5%). In univariate analyses, the outcome was influenced neither by the type of surgery nor the use of postoperative RT. However, positive receptor status had a negative influence on the outcome. Multivariate analysis (Cox model) revealed that negative ER (p = 0.006) or PR (p = 0.04) status was associated with improved DFS. Conclusions: ACC of the breast is a relatively indolent disease with excellent local control and survival. The prognosis of patients with ACC is much better than that for patients with other breast cancers, especially those who are ER and PR negative. The role of postoperative RT is not clear. More aggressive treatments may be warranted for patients with positive receptor status.

Localization and characterization of an active fault in an urbanized area in central Guatemala by means of geoelectrical imaging

The Polochic and Motagua faults define the active plate boundary between the North American and Caribbean plates in central Guatemala. A splay of the Polochic Fault traverses the rapidly growing city of San Miguel Uspantan that is periodically affected by destructive earthquakes. This fault splay was located using a 2D electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) survey that also characterized the fault damage zone and evaluated the thickness and nature of recent deposits upon which most of the city is built. ERT images show the fault as a similar to 50 m wide, near-vertical low-resistivity anomaly, bounded within a few meters by high resistivity anomalies. Forward modeling reproduces the key aspects of the observed electrical resistivity data with remarkable fidelity thus defining the overall location, geometry, and internal structure of the fault zone as well as the affected lithologies. Our results indicate that the city is constructed on a similar to 20 m thick surficial layer consisting of poorly consolidated, highly porous, water-logged pumice. This soft layer is likely to amplify seismic waves and to liquefy upon moderate to strong ground shaking. The electrical conductivity as well as the major element chemistry of the groundwater provides evidence to suggest that the local aquifer might, at least in part, be fed by water rising along the fault. Therefore, the potential threat posed by this fault splay may not be limited to its seismic activity per se, but could be compounded its potential propensity to enhance seismic site effects by injecting water into the soft surficial sediments. The results of this study provide the basis for a rigorous analysis of seismic hazard and sustainable development of San Miguel Uspantan and illustrate the potential of ERT surveying for paleoseismic studies.

Evaluating the impact of public subsidies on a firm's performance: a quasi-experimental approach

Many regional governments in developed countries design programs to improve the competitiveness of local firms. In this paper, we evaluate the effectiveness of public programs whose aim is to enhance the performance of firms located in Catalonia (Spain). We compare the performance of publicly subsidised companies (treated) with that of similar, but unsubsidised companies (non-treated). We use the Propensity Score Matching (PSM) methodology to construct a control group which, with respect to its observable characteristics, is as similar as possible to the treated group, and that allows us to identify firms which retain the same propensity to receive public subsidies. Once a valid comparison group has been established, we compare the respective performance of each firm. As a result, we find that recipient firms, on average, change their business practices, improve their performance, and increase their value added as a direct result of public subsidy programs.

Evaluating the impact of public subsidies on a firm's performance: a quasi-experimental approach

Many regional governments in developed countries design programs to improve the competitiveness of local firms. In this paper, we evaluate the effectiveness of public programs whose aim is to enhance the performance of firms located in Catalonia (Spain). We compare the performance of publicly subsidised companies (treated) with that of similar, but unsubsidised companies (non-treated). We use the Propensity Score Matching (PSM) methodology to construct a control group which, with respect to its observable characteristics, is as similar as possible to the treated group, and that allows us to identify firms which retain the same propensity to receive public subsidies. Once a valid comparison group has been established, we compare the respective performance of each firm. As a result, we find that recipient firms, on average, change their business practices, improve their performance, and increase their value added as a direct result of public subsidy programs.

The importance of host spatial distribution for parasite specialization and speciation: a comparative study of bird fleas (Siphonaptera : Ceratophyllidae)

1. The environment of parasites is determined largely by their hosts. Variation in host quality, abundance and spatial distribution affects the balance between selection within hosts and gene flow between hosts, and this should determine the evolution of a parasite's host-range and its propensity to locally adapt and speciate. 2. We investigated the relationship between host spatial distribution and (1) parasite host range, (2) parasite mobility and (3) parasite geographical range, in a comparative study of a major group of avian ectoparasites, the birds fleas belonging to the Ceratophyllidae (Siphonaptera). 3. Flea species parasitizing colonial birds had narrower host ranges than those infesting territorial nesters or birds with an intermediate level of nest aggregation. 4. The potential mobility and geographical ranges of fleas decreased with increasing level of aggregation of their hosts and increased with the fleas' host ranges. 5. Birds with aggregated nest distribution harboured more flea species mainly due to a larger number of specialists than solitarily nesting hosts. 6. These results emphasize the importance of host spatial distribution for the evolution of specialization, and for local adaptation and speciation in Ceratophyllid bird fleas.

Understanding Political Knowledge and Its Influence on Voting Preferences in the 2007 Federal Election

In this article we propose a model to explain how voters' perceptions of their ideological proximity to a party affect their propensity to vote for that party. We argue that political knowledge plays a crucial moderating role in the relationship between party proximity and voting propensity. It is necessary, however, to distinguish between institutional knowledge (information about the political system) and party knowledge (information about the parties' left-right positions). An analysis of survey data from the 2007 Swiss federal elections supports our main hypothesis that party knowledge enhances the link between party proximity and voting propensity. Institutional knowledge may have additional influence, but clear evidence for this effect was obtained only for propensities to vote for the Swiss People's Party (SVP). Overall, the impact of political knowledge was found to be substantial, even after controlling for the outstanding influence of party identification and other predictors of voting propensities

Amphibians in the diet of European Barn Owls

We present a review of the propensity to eat amphibians in the Barn Owl Tyto alba in Europe. Based on the analysis of 596 published studies reporting 3.32 million prey items identified in pellets, 17 869 amphibians (0.54%) were found. An analysis of 9036 amphibians identified to the species level showed that Barn Owls avoid consuming toxic species, and they are able to capture tree frogs (Hylidae) only rarely. The true frogs (Ranidae) are by far the most frequently captured amphibians followed by spadefoot toads (Pelobatidae) and Parsley frogs (Pelodytidae).

Genome-wide association for abdominal subcutaneous and visceral adipose reveals a novel locus for visceral fat in women.

Body fat distribution, particularly centralized obesity, is associated with metabolic risk above and beyond total adiposity. We performed genome-wide association of abdominal adipose depots quantified using computed tomography (CT) to uncover novel loci for body fat distribution among participants of European ancestry. Subcutaneous and visceral fat were quantified in 5,560 women and 4,997 men from 4 population-based studies. Genome-wide genotyping was performed using standard arrays and imputed to ~2.5 million Hapmap SNPs. Each study performed a genome-wide association analysis of subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT), visceral adipose tissue (VAT), VAT adjusted for body mass index, and VAT/SAT ratio (a metric of the propensity to store fat viscerally as compared to subcutaneously) in the overall sample and in women and men separately. A weighted z-score meta-analysis was conducted. For the VAT/SAT ratio, our most significant p-value was rs11118316 at LYPLAL1 gene (p = 3.1 × 10E-09), previously identified in association with waist-hip ratio. For SAT, the most significant SNP was in the FTO gene (p = 5.9 × 10E-08). Given the known gender differences in body fat distribution, we performed sex-specific analyses. Our most significant finding was for VAT in women, rs1659258 near THNSL2 (p = 1.6 × 10-08), but not men (p = 0.75). Validation of this SNP in the GIANT consortium data demonstrated a similar sex-specific pattern, with observed significance in women (p = 0.006) but not men (p = 0.24) for BMI and waist circumference (p = 0.04 [women], p = 0.49 [men]). Finally, we interrogated our data for the 14 recently published loci for body fat distribution (measured by waist-hip ratio adjusted for BMI); associations were observed at 7 of these loci. In contrast, we observed associations at only 7/32 loci previously identified in association with BMI; the majority of overlap was observed with SAT. Genome-wide association for visceral and subcutaneous fat revealed a SNP for VAT in women. More refined phenotypes for body composition and fat distribution can detect new loci not previously uncovered in large-scale GWAS of anthropometric traits.

GIS-based debris flow source and runout susceptibility assessment from DEM data - a case study in NW Nicaragua

In October 1998, Hurricane Mitch triggered numerous landslides (mainly debris flows) in Honduras and Nicaragua, resulting in a high death toll and in considerable damage to property. The potential application of relatively simple and affordable spatial prediction models for landslide hazard mapping in developing countries was studied. Our attention was focused on a region in NW Nicaragua, one of the most severely hit places during the Mitch event. A landslide map was obtained at 1:10 000 scale in a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment from the interpretation of aerial photographs and detailed field work. In this map the terrain failure zones were distinguished from the areas within the reach of the mobilized materials. A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) with 20 m×20 m of pixel size was also employed in the study area. A comparative analysis of the terrain failures caused by Hurricane Mitch and a selection of 4 terrain factors extracted from the DEM which, contributed to the terrain instability, was carried out. Land propensity to failure was determined with the aid of a bivariate analysis and GIS tools in a terrain failure susceptibility map. In order to estimate the areas that could be affected by the path or deposition of the mobilized materials, we considered the fact that under intense rainfall events debris flows tend to travel long distances following the maximum slope and merging with the drainage network. Using the TauDEM extension for ArcGIS software we generated automatically flow lines following the maximum slope in the DEM starting from the areas prone to failure in the terrain failure susceptibility map. The areas crossed by the flow lines from each terrain failure susceptibility class correspond to the runout susceptibility classes represented in a runout susceptibility map. The study of terrain failure and runout susceptibility enabled us to obtain a spatial prediction for landslides, which could contribute to landslide risk mitigation.

Choosy moral punishers.

The punishment of social misconduct is a powerful mechanism for stabilizing high levels of cooperation among unrelated individuals. It is regularly assumed that humans have a universal disposition to punish social norm violators, which is sometimes labelled "universal structure of human morality" or "pure aversion to social betrayal". Here we present evidence that, contrary to this hypothesis, the propensity to punish a moral norm violator varies among participants with different career trajectories. In anonymous real-life conditions, future teachers punished a talented but immoral young violinist: they voted against her in an important music competition when they had been informed of her previous blatant misconduct toward fellow violin students. In contrast, future police officers and high school students did not punish. This variation among socio-professional categories indicates that the punishment of norm violators is not entirely explained by an aversion to social betrayal. We suggest that context specificity plays an important role in normative behaviour; people seem inclined to enforce social norms only in situations that are familiar, relevant for their social category, and possibly strategically advantageous.

International debt deleveraging

I provide a framework for understanding debt deleveraging in a group of financiallyintegrated countries. During an episode of international deleveraging world consumptiondemand is depressed and the world interest rate is low, reflecting a high propensity to save.If exchange rates are allowed to float, deleveraging countries can depreciate their nominalexchange rate to increase production and mitigate the fall in consumption associatedwith debt reduction. The key insight of the paper is that in a monetary union thischannel of adjustment is shut off, and therefore the falls in consumption demand and inthe world interest rate are amplified. Hence, monetary unions are especially prone tohit the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate and enter a liquidity trap duringdeleveraging. In a liquidity trap deleveraging gives rise to a union-wide recession, which isparticularly severe in high-debt countries. The model suggests several policy interventionsthat mitigate the negative impact of deleveraging on output in monetary unions.

The burnout syndrome and associated personality disturbances. The study in three graduate programs in Dentistry at the University of Barcelona

Objective: Determine the presence of"burnout" syndrome and characteristic personality patterns in the students and faculty of three graduate programs in Dentistry at the University of Barcelona: Department of Oral Surgery and Implantology, Department of Orthodontics and Department of Integrated Dentistry. Materials and Methods: The study was carried out in 78 dentists. The level of"burnout" was evaluated using the Maslach Burnout Inventory, socio-demographic variables and, finally, the personality test. Results: Oral surgeons constituted the group of highlevel"burnout". The profile of an individual with a propensity to"burn out" is a single man, with a median age of 27, that is in the first years of the graduate program and that combines studies with 30 hours of clinical practice and/or other work (p<0,05). Narcissistic and borderline are the types of personality most frequently found in the individuals that present"burnout" syndrome (p<0,05). Conclusions: In general, no high levels of"burnout" were registered in the studied population, only 2-3%, if applying strict definition of"burnout", and 10% if these criteria were amplified. We believe it is necessary to identify the individuals with a tendency towards"burnout", in order to establish preventive measures and avoid future negative behaviour at work as well as at the personal level.

Conservation of the Eurasian Lynx (Lynx lynx) in a fragmented landscape - habitat models, dispersal and potential distribution

Abstract: The expansion of a recovering population - whether re-introduced or spontaneously returning - is shaped by (i) biological (intrinsic) factors such as the land tenure system or dispersal, (ii) the distribution and availability of resources (e.g. prey), (iii) habitat and landscape features, and (iv) human attitudes and activities. In order to develop efficient conservation and recovery strategies, we need to understand all these factors and to predict the potential distribution and explore ways to reach it. An increased number of lynx in the north-western Swiss Alps in the nineties lead to a new controversy about the return of this cat. When the large carnivores were given legal protection in many European countries, most organizations and individuals promoting their protection did not foresee the consequences. Management plans describing how to handle conflicts with large predators are needed to find a balance between "overabundance" and extinction. Wildlife and conservation biologists need to evaluate the various threats confronting populations so that adequate management decisions can be taken. I developed a GIS probability model for the lynx, based on habitat information and radio-telemetry data from the Swiss Jura Mountains, in order to predict the potential distribution of the lynx in this mountain range, which is presently only partly occupied by lynx. Three of the 18 variables tested for each square kilometre describing land use, vegetation, and topography, qualified to predict the probability of lynx presence. The resulting map was evaluated with data from dispersing subadult lynx. Young lynx that were not able to establish home ranges in what was identified as good lynx habitat did not survive their first year of independence, whereas the only one that died in good lynx habitat was illegally killed. Radio-telemetry fixes are often used as input data to calibrate habitat models. Radio-telemetry is the only way to gather accurate and unbiased data on habitat use of elusive larger terrestrial mammals. However, it is time consuming and expensive, and can therefore only be applied in limited areas. Habitat models extrapolated over large areas can in turn be problematic, as habitat characteristics and availability may change from one area to the other. I analysed the predictive power of Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) in Switzerland with the lynx as focal species. According to my results, the optimal sampling strategy to predict species distribution in an Alpine area lacking available data would be to pool presence cells from contrasted regions (Jura Mountains, Alps), whereas in regions with a low ecological variance (Jura Mountains), only local presence cells should be used for the calibration of the model. Dispersal influences the dynamics and persistence of populations, the distribution and abundance of species, and gives the communities and ecosystems their characteristic texture in space and time. Between 1988 and 2001, the spatio-temporal behaviour of subadult Eurasian lynx in two re-introduced populations in Switzerland was studied, based on 39 juvenile lynx of which 24 were radio-tagged to understand the factors influencing dispersal. Subadults become independent from their mothers at the age of 8-11 months. No sex bias neither in the dispersal rate nor in the distance moved was detected. Lynx are conservative dispersers, compared to bear and wolf, and settled within or close to known lynx occurrences. Dispersal distances reached in the high lynx density population - shorter than those reported in other Eurasian lynx studies - are limited by habitat restriction hindering connections with neighbouring metapopulations. I postulated that high lynx density would lead to an expansion of the population and validated my predictions with data from the north-western Swiss Alps where about 1995 a strong increase in lynx abundance took place. The general hypothesis that high population density will foster the expansion of the population was not confirmed. This has consequences for the re-introduction and recovery of carnivores in a fragmented landscape. To establish a strong source population in one place might not be an optimal strategy. Rather, population nuclei should be founded in several neighbouring patches. Exchange between established neighbouring subpopulations will later on take place, as adult lynx show a higher propensity to cross barriers than subadults. To estimate the potential population size of the lynx in the Jura Mountains and to assess possible corridors between this population and adjacent areas, I adapted a habitat probability model for lynx distribution in the Jura Mountains with new environmental data and extrapolated it over the entire mountain range. The model predicts a breeding population ranging from 74-101 individuals and from 51-79 individuals when continuous habitat patches < 50 km2 are disregarded. The Jura Mountains could once be part of a metapopulation, as potential corridors exist to the adjoining areas (Alps, Vosges Mountains, and Black Forest). Monitoring of the population size, spatial expansion, and the genetic surveillance in the Jura Mountains must be continued, as the status of the population is still critical. ENFA was used to predict the potential distribution of lynx in the Alps. The resulting model divided the Alps into 37 suitable habitat patches ranging from 50 to 18,711 km2, covering a total area of about 93,600 km2. When using the range of lynx densities found in field studies in Switzerland, the Alps could host a population of 961 to 1,827 residents. The results of the cost-distance analysis revealed that all patches were within the reach of dispersing lynx, as the connection costs were in the range of dispersal cost of radio-tagged subadult lynx moving through unfavorable habitat. Thus, the whole Alps could once be considered as a metapopulation. But experience suggests that only few disperser will cross unsuitable areas and barriers. This low migration rate may seldom allow the spontaneous foundation of new populations in unsettled areas. As an alternative to natural dispersal, artificial transfer of individuals across the barriers should be considered. Wildlife biologists can play a crucial role in developing adaptive management experiments to help managers learning by trial. The case of the lynx in Switzerland is a good example of a fruitful cooperation between wildlife biologists, managers, decision makers and politician in an adaptive management process. This cooperation resulted in a Lynx Management Plan which was implemented in 2000 and updated in 2004 to give the cantons directives on how to handle lynx-related problems. This plan was put into practice e.g. in regard to translocation of lynx into unsettled areas. Résumé: L'expansion d'une population en phase de recolonisation, qu'elle soit issue de réintroductions ou d'un retour naturel dépend 1) de facteurs biologiques tels que le système social et le mode de dispersion, 2) de la distribution et la disponibilité des ressources (proies), 3) de l'habitat et des éléments du paysage, 4) de l'acceptation de l'espèce par la population locale et des activités humaines. Afin de pouvoir développer des stratégies efficaces de conservation et de favoriser la recolonisation, chacun de ces facteurs doit être pris en compte. En plus, la distribution potentielle de l'espèce doit pouvoir être déterminée et enfin, toutes les possibilités pour atteindre les objectifs, examinées. La phase de haute densité que la population de lynx a connue dans les années nonante dans le nord-ouest des Alpes suisses a donné lieu à une controverse assez vive. La protection du lynx dans de nombreux pays européens, promue par différentes organisations, a entraîné des conséquences inattendues; ces dernières montrent que tout plan de gestion doit impérativement indiquer des pistes quant à la manière de gérer les conflits, tout en trouvant un équilibre entre l'extinction et la surabondance de l'espèce. Les biologistes de la conservation et de la faune sauvage doivent pour cela évaluer les différents risques encourus par les populations de lynx, afin de pouvoir rapidement prendre les meilleuresmdécisions de gestion. Un modèle d'habitat pour le lynx, basé sur des caractéristiques de l'habitat et des données radio télémétriques collectées dans la chaîne du Jura, a été élaboré afin de prédire la distribution potentielle dans cette région, qui n'est que partiellement occupée par l'espèce. Trois des 18 variables testées, décrivant pour chaque kilomètre carré l'utilisation du sol, la végétation ainsi que la topographie, ont été retenues pour déterminer la probabilité de présence du lynx. La carte qui en résulte a été comparée aux données télémétriques de lynx subadultes en phase de dispersion. Les jeunes qui n'ont pas pu établir leur domaine vital dans l'habitat favorable prédit par le modèle n'ont pas survécu leur première année d'indépendance alors que le seul individu qui est mort dans l'habitat favorable a été braconné. Les données radio-télémétriques sont souvent utilisées pour l'étalonnage de modèles d'habitat. C'est un des seuls moyens à disposition qui permette de récolter des données non biaisées et précises sur l'occupation de l'habitat par des mammifères terrestres aux moeurs discrètes. Mais ces méthodes de- mandent un important investissement en moyens financiers et en temps et peuvent, de ce fait, n'être appliquées qu'à des zones limitées. Les modèles d'habitat sont ainsi souvent extrapolés à de grandes surfaces malgré le risque d'imprécision, qui résulte des variations des caractéristiques et de la disponibilité de l'habitat d'une zone à l'autre. Le pouvoir de prédiction de l'Analyse Ecologique de la Niche (AEN) dans les zones où les données de présence n'ont pas été prises en compte dans le calibrage du modèle a été analysée dans le cas du lynx en Suisse. D'après les résultats obtenus, la meilleure mé- thode pour prédire la distribution du lynx dans une zone alpine dépourvue d'indices de présence est de combiner des données provenant de régions contrastées (Alpes, Jura). Par contre, seules les données sur la présence locale de l'espèce doivent être utilisées pour les zones présentant une faible variance écologique tel que le Jura. La dispersion influence la dynamique et la stabilité des populations, la distribution et l'abondance des espèces et détermine les caractéristiques spatiales et temporelles des communautés vivantes et des écosystèmes. Entre 1988 et 2001, le comportement spatio-temporel de lynx eurasiens subadultes de deux populations réintroduites en Suisse a été étudié, basé sur le suivi de 39 individus juvéniles dont 24 étaient munis d'un collier émetteur, afin de déterminer les facteurs qui influencent la dispersion. Les subadultes se sont séparés de leur mère à l'âge de 8 à 11 mois. Le sexe n'a pas eu d'influence sur le nombre d'individus ayant dispersés et la distance parcourue au cours de la dispersion. Comparé à l'ours et au loup, le lynx reste très modéré dans ses mouvements de dispersion. Tous les individus ayant dispersés se sont établis à proximité ou dans des zones déjà occupées par des lynx. Les distances parcourues lors de la dispersion ont été plus courtes pour la population en phase de haute densité que celles relevées par les autres études de dispersion du lynx eurasien. Les zones d'habitat peu favorables et les barrières qui interrompent la connectivité entre les populations sont les principales entraves aux déplacements, lors de la dispersion. Dans un premier temps, nous avons fait l'hypothèse que les phases de haute densité favorisaient l'expansion des populations. Mais cette hypothèse a été infirmée par les résultats issus du suivi des lynx réalisé dans le nord-ouest des Alpes, où la population connaissait une phase de haute densité depuis 1995. Ce constat est important pour la conservation d'une population de carnivores dans un habitat fragmenté. Ainsi, instaurer une forte population source à un seul endroit n'est pas forcément la stratégie la plus judicieuse. Il est préférable d'établir des noyaux de populations dans des régions voisines où l'habitat est favorable. Des échanges entre des populations avoisinantes pourront avoir lieu par la suite car les lynx adultes sont plus enclins à franchir les barrières qui entravent leurs déplacements que les individus subadultes. Afin d'estimer la taille de la population de lynx dans le Jura et de déterminer les corridors potentiels entre cette région et les zones avoisinantes, un modèle d'habitat a été utilisé, basé sur un nouveau jeu de variables environnementales et extrapolé à l'ensemble du Jura. Le modèle prédit une population reproductrice de 74 à 101 individus et de 51 à 79 individus lorsque les surfaces d'habitat d'un seul tenant de moins de 50 km2 sont soustraites. Comme des corridors potentiels existent effectivement entre le Jura et les régions avoisinantes (Alpes, Vosges, et Forêt Noire), le Jura pourrait faire partie à l'avenir d'une métapopulation, lorsque les zones avoisinantes seront colonisées par l'espèce. La surveillance de la taille de la population, de son expansion spatiale et de sa structure génétique doit être maintenue car le statut de cette population est encore critique. L'AEN a également été utilisée pour prédire l'habitat favorable du lynx dans les Alpes. Le modèle qui en résulte divise les Alpes en 37 sous-unités d'habitat favorable dont la surface varie de 50 à 18'711 km2, pour une superficie totale de 93'600 km2. En utilisant le spectre des densités observées dans les études radio-télémétriques effectuées en Suisse, les Alpes pourraient accueillir une population de lynx résidents variant de 961 à 1'827 individus. Les résultats des analyses de connectivité montrent que les sous-unités d'habitat favorable se situent à des distances telles que le coût de la dispersion pour l'espèce est admissible. L'ensemble des Alpes pourrait donc un jour former une métapopulation. Mais l'expérience montre que très peu d'individus traverseront des habitats peu favorables et des barrières au cours de leur dispersion. Ce faible taux de migration rendra difficile toute nouvelle implantation de populations dans des zones inoccupées. Une solution alternative existe cependant : transférer artificiellement des individus d'une zone à l'autre. Les biologistes spécialistes de la faune sauvage peuvent jouer un rôle important et complémentaire pour les gestionnaires de la faune, en les aidant à mener des expériences de gestion par essai. Le cas du lynx en Suisse est un bel exemple d'une collaboration fructueuse entre biologistes de la faune sauvage, gestionnaires, organes décisionnaires et politiciens. Cette coopération a permis l'élaboration du Concept Lynx Suisse qui est entré en vigueur en 2000 et remis à jour en 2004. Ce plan donne des directives aux cantons pour appréhender la problématique du lynx. Il y a déjà eu des applications concrètes sur le terrain, notamment par des translocations d'individus dans des zones encore inoccupées.