Morfometria, variação anual no peso e demografia do Tico-tico-rei-cinza (Lanio pileatus: thraupidae) em dois ambientes de caatinga no nordeste do Brasil

The caatinga is considered the only exclusively Brazilian biome, with a total area of 735.000km². It is estimated that about 59% of this area has already been removed and only 2% are protected in conservations units. The region is characteristic by strong seasonality and heterogeneity in their environments. This paper sets generate information on morphological and population patterns Lanio pilatus in two areas of caatinga of Estação Ecológica do Seridó (ESEC – Seridó), Serra Negra do Norte - RN. Data collection was performed in six phases between July 2012 and December 2014, covering the end of the dry and rainy seasons in the region. The captures were performed with nets and individuals captured were marked with metal rings and measured (weight, wing length, tail, tarsus, culmen and tip of the bill to nostril). Through these measures, we observed that only males of open area range in weight during the dry and rainy season, youngs were significantly lower for all parameters measured, and males were larger than females in three characteristics (weight, wing length and tail) in open area and only one (wing length) in the closed area. The population parameters were generated from the mark-capture-recapture technique by program MARK, using the techniques of robust design and CJS. The survival probability of detection and population estimates varied with time. Only individuals of open area fluctuated in their estimates during the study. Overall, the environment was a great mediator of results which increases the need for more studies on the life history of the species in the region.

Improved image analysis based corrosion assessment using preprocessing techniques

The importance of non-destructive techniques (NDT) in structural health monitoring programmes is being critically felt in the recent times. The quality of the measured data, often affected by various environmental conditions can be a guiding factor in terms usefulness and prediction efficiencies of the various detection and monitoring methods used in this regard. Often, a preprocessing of the acquired data in relation to the affecting environmental parameters can improve the information quality and lead towards a significantly more efficient and correct prediction process. The improvement can be directly related to the final decision making policy about a structure or a network of structures and is compatible with general probabilistic frameworks of such assessment and decision making programmes. This paper considers a preprocessing technique employed for an image analysis based structural health monitoring methodology to identify sub-marine pitting corrosion in the presence of variable luminosity, contrast and noise affecting the quality of images. A preprocessing of the gray-level threshold of the various images is observed to bring about a significant improvement in terms of damage detection as compared to an automatically computed gray-level threshold. The case dependent adjustments of the threshold enable to obtain the best possible information from an existing image. The corresponding improvements are observed in a qualitative manner in the present study.

O comprimento descritivo mínimo na amostragem por transectos lineares

Apresenta·se um breve resumo histórico da evolução da amostragem por transectos lineares e desenvolve·se a sua teoria. Descrevemos a teoria de amostragem por transectos lineares, proposta por Buckland (1992), sendo apresentados os pontos mais relevantes, no que diz respeito à modelação da função de detecção. Apresentamos uma descrição do princípio CDM (Rissanen, 1978) e a sua aplicação à estimação de uma função densidade por um histograma (Kontkanen e Myllymãki, 2006), procedendo à aplicação de um exemplo prático, recorrendo a uma mistura de densidades. Procedemos à sua aplicação ao cálculo do estimador da probabilidade de detecção, no caso dos transectos lineares e desta forma estimar a densidade populacional de animais. Analisamos dois casos práticos, clássicos na amostragem por distâncias, comparando os resultados obtidos. De forma a avaliar a metodologia, simulámos vários conjuntos de observações, tendo como base o exemplo das estacas, recorrendo às funções de detecção semi-normal, taxa de risco, exponencial e uniforme com um cosseno. Os resultados foram obtidos com o programa DISTANCE (Thomas et al., in press) e um algoritmo escrito em linguagem C, cedido pelo Professor Doutor Petri Kontkanen (Departamento de Ciências da Computação, Universidade de Helsínquia). Foram desenvolvidos programas de forma a calcular intervalos de confiança recorrendo à técnica bootstrap (Efron, 1978). São discutidos os resultados finais e apresentadas sugestões de desenvolvimentos futuros. ABSTRACT; We present a brief historical note on the evolution of line transect sampling and its theoretical developments. We describe line transect sampling theory as proposed by Buckland (1992), and present the most relevant issues about modeling the detection function. We present a description of the CDM principle (Rissanen, 1978) and its application to histogram density estimation (Kontkanen and Myllymãki, 2006), with a practical example, using a mixture of densities. We proceed with the application and estimate probability of detection and animal population density in the context of line transect sampling. Two classical examples from the literature are analyzed and compared. ln order to evaluate the proposed methodology, we carry out a simulation study based on a wooden stakes example, and using as detection functions half normal, hazard rate, exponential and uniform with a cosine term. The results were obtained using program DISTANCE (Thomas et al., in press), and an algorithm written in C language, kindly offered by Professor Petri Kontkanen (Department of Computer Science, University of Helsinki). We develop some programs in order to estimate confidence intervals using the bootstrap technique (Efron, 1978). Finally, the results are presented and discussed with suggestions for future developments.

Simulazione numerica di sensori in fibra ottica distribuiti per rilevamento del danno in materiali compositi

Le fibre ottiche sono materiali costituiti al loro interno da fibre di vetro o filamenti polimerici. Esse attualmente trovano grande impiego nel campo della telecomunicazione, ma è assai importante lo sviluppo che stanno ottenendo nel campo del monitoraggio strutturale. L’obiettivo del lavoro descritto in questo elaborato finale è di riuscire a sviluppare un programma in grado di computare una simulazione analitico-parametrica riguardante i segnali restituiti da un sensore in fibra ottica. In particolare, sono stati creati due codici (Codice 1 e Codice 2) per sostenere un Codice Esistente. Quest’ultimo prende in input dei dati sperimentali che, invece di essere ottenuti da prove in laboratorio, sono prodotti in uscita dal Codice 1, il quale simula prove a fatica o statiche in provini di diverso materiale. Attraverso l’analisi di questi dati, il codice finale crea delle curve probabilistiche in grado di asserire con quanta probabilità e con quale confidenza è possibile valutare i risultati esplicitati dallo strumento di rilevazione, che in questo caso è un sensore in fibra ottica. D’altra parte, il Codice 2 analizza le conseguenze nella Probability of Detection e confidenza al variare dei parametri maggiormente influenti nel modello.

One Step Forward: Contrasting The Effects Of Toe Clipping And Pit Tagging On Frog Survival And Recapture Probability.

Amphibians have been declining worldwide and the comprehension of the threats that they face could be improved by using mark-recapture models to estimate vital rates of natural populations. Recently, the consequences of marking amphibians have been under discussion and the effects of toe clipping on survival are debatable, although it is still the most common technique for individually identifying amphibians. The passive integrated transponder (PIT tag) is an alternative technique, but comparisons among marking techniques in free-ranging populations are still lacking. We compared these two marking techniques using mark-recapture models to estimate apparent survival and recapture probability of a neotropical population of the blacksmith tree frog, Hypsiboas faber. We tested the effects of marking technique and number of toe pads removed while controlling for sex. Survival was similar among groups, although slightly decreased from individuals with one toe pad removed, to individuals with two and three toe pads removed, and finally to PIT-tagged individuals. No sex differences were detected. Recapture probability slightly increased with the number of toe pads removed and was the lowest for PIT-tagged individuals. Sex was an important predictor for recapture probability, with males being nearly five times more likely to be recaptured. Potential negative effects of both techniques may include reduced locomotion and high stress levels. We recommend the use of covariates in models to better understand the effects of marking techniques on frogs. Accounting for the effect of the technique on the results should be considered, because most techniques may reduce survival. Based on our results, but also on logistical and cost issues associated with PIT tagging, we suggest the use of toe clipping with anurans like the blacksmith tree frog.

Detection of enteroviruses in cases of neurological disorders in the State of Pará, Brazil

Eighty-one cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples mainly from cases of aseptic meningitis and motor deficiency syndrome were sent to the Virology Section of Evandro Chagas Institute, Belém Pará, in the period of January 1995 to January 1996 in order to isolate viruses. All samples were inoculated onto HEp-2 cell culture and newborn mice, with negative results. The probability of isolating viruses by these methods is reduced because of the low concentration of viral particles in these specimens. In order to obtain more information about the etiology of these cases, a group of 23 samples were selected to be tested by a more sensitive technique than the virus isolation - the reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Specific primers directed to conserved regions in the enterovirus genome were used, considering that this group of viruses is frequently associated with these neurological disorder. The age of the patients ranged from 1 to 55 years and nearly all of them lived in Belém, State of Pará, North of Brazil. Of 15 samples analyzed by RT PCR nine (60%) were positive; of these, 6 (66.6%) had motor deficiency and 3 (33.3%) developed aseptic meningitis. These results show that it is important to investigate enterovirus as cause of these syndromes.

Oriented Tailoring of Plastic Antibodies for Prostate Specific Antigen and Application of the Imprinted Material as Ionophore in Potentiometric Detection

Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) is the biomarker of choice for screening prostate cancer throughout the population, with PSA values above 10 ng/mL pointing out a high probability of associated cancer1. According to the most recent World Health Organization (WHO) data, prostate cancer is the commonest form of cancer in men in Europe2. Early detection of prostate cancer is thus very important and is currently made by screening PSA in men over 45 years old, combined with other alterations in serum and urine parameters. PSA is a glycoprotein with a molecular mass of approximately 32 kDa consisting of one polypeptide chain, which is produced by the secretory epithelium of human prostate. Currently, the standard methods available for PSA screening are immunoassays like Enzyme-Linked Immunoabsorbent Assay (ELISA). These methods are highly sensitive and specific for the detection of PSA, but they require expensive laboratory facilities and high qualify personal resources. Other highly sensitive and specific methods for the detection of PSA have also become available and are in its majority immunobiosensors1,3-5, relying on antibodies. Less expensive methods producing quicker responses are thus needed, which may be achieved by synthesizing artificial antibodies by means of molecular imprinting techniques. These should also be coupled to simple and low cost devices, such as those of the potentiometric kind, one approach that has been proven successful6. Potentiometric sensors offer the advantage of selectivity and portability for use in point-of-care and have been widely recognized as potential analytical tools in this field. The inherent method is simple, precise, accurate and inexpensive regarding reagent consumption and equipment involved. Thus, this work proposes a new plastic antibody for PSA, designed over the surface of graphene layers extracted from graphite. Charged monomers were used to enable an oriented tailoring of the PSA rebinding sites. Uncharged monomers were used as control. These materials were used as ionophores in conventional solid-contact graphite electrodes. The obtained results showed that the imprinted materials displayed a selective response to PSA. The electrodes with charged monomers showed a more stable and sensitive response, with an average slope of -44.2 mV/decade and a detection limit of 5.8X10-11 mol/L (2 ng/mL). The corresponding non-imprinted sensors showed smaller sensitivity, with average slopes of -24.8 mV/decade. The best sensors were successfully applied to the analysis of serum samples, with percentage recoveries of 106.5% and relatives errors of 6.5%.

Integrating detection probabilities in species distribution models of amphibians breeding in Mediterranean temporary ponds

Aim  The imperfect detection of species may lead to erroneous conclusions about species-environment relationships. Accuracy in species detection usually requires temporal replication at sampling sites, a time-consuming and costly monitoring scheme. Here, we applied a lower-cost alternative based on a double-sampling approach to incorporate the reliability of species detection into regression-based species distribution modelling.Location  Doñana National Park (south-western Spain).Methods  Using species-specific monthly detection probabilities, we estimated the detection reliability as the probability of having detected the species given the species-specific survey time. Such reliability estimates were used to account explicitly for data uncertainty by weighting each absence. We illustrated how this novel framework can be used to evaluate four competing hypotheses as to what constitutes primary environmental control of amphibian distribution: breeding habitat, aestivating habitat, spatial distribution of surrounding habitats and/or major ecosystems zonation. The study was conducted on six pond-breeding amphibian species during a 4-year period.Results  Non-detections should not be considered equivalent to real absences, as their reliability varied considerably. The occurrence of Hyla meridionalis and Triturus pygmaeus was related to a particular major ecosystem of the study area, where suitable habitat for these species seemed to be widely available. Characteristics of the breeding habitat (area and hydroperiod) were of high importance for the occurrence of Pelobates cultripes and Pleurodeles waltl. Terrestrial characteristics were the most important predictors of the occurrence of Discoglossus galganoi and Lissotriton boscai, along with spatial distribution of breeding habitats for the last species.Main conclusions  We did not find a single best supported hypothesis valid for all species, which stresses the importance of multiscale and multifactor approaches. More importantly, this study shows that estimating the reliability of non-detection records, an exercise that had been previously seen as a naïve goal in species distribution modelling, is feasible and could be promoted in future studies, at least in comparable systems.

Genetic associations in the detection of QTLs for wheat spike-related traits

The objective of this work was to assess the genetic diversity and population structure of wheat genotypes, to detect significant and stable genetic associations, as well as to evaluate the efficiency of statistical models to identify chromosome regions responsible for the expression of spike-related traits. Eight important spike characteristics were measured during five growing seasons in Serbia. A set of 30 microsatellite markers positioned near important agronomic loci was used to evaluate genetic diversity, resulting in a total of 349 alleles. The marker-trait associations were analyzed using the general linear and mixed linear models. The results obtained for number of allelic variants per locus (11.5), average polymorphic information content value (0.68), and average gene diversity (0.722) showed that the exceptional level of polymorphism in the genotypes is the main requirement for association studies. The population structure estimated by model-based clustering distributed the genotypes into six subpopulations according to log probability of data. Significant and stable associations were detected on chromosomes 1B, 2A, 2B, 2D, and 6D, which explained from 4.7 to 40.7% of total phenotypic variations. The general linear model identified a significantly larger number of marker-trait associations (192) than the mixed linear model (76). The mixed linear model identified nine markers associated to six traits.

Effectiveness of early detection on breast cancer mortality reduction in Catalonia (Spain)

Background: At present, it is complicated to use screening trials to determine the optimal age intervals and periodicities of breast cancer early detection. Mathematical models are an alternative that has been widely used. The aim of this study was to estimate the effect of different breast cancer early detection strategies in Catalonia (Spain), in terms of breast cancer mortality reduction (MR) and years of life gained (YLG), using the stochastic models developed by Lee and Zelen (LZ). Methods: We used the LZ model to estimate the cumulative probability of death for a cohort exposed to different screening strategies after T years of follow-up. We also obtained the cumulative probability of death for a cohort with no screening. These probabilities were used to estimate the possible breast cancer MR and YLG by age, period and cohort of birth. The inputs of the model were: incidence of, mortality from and survival after breast cancer, mortality from other causes, distribution of breast cancer stages at diagnosis and sensitivity of mammography. The outputs were relative breast cancer MR and YLG. Results: Relative breast cancer MR varied from 20% for biennial exams in the 50 to 69 age interval to 30% for annual exams in the 40 to 74 age interval. When strategies differ in periodicity but not in the age interval of exams, biennial screening achieved almost 80% of the annual screening MR. In contrast to MR, the effect on YLG of extending screening from 69 to 74 years of age was smaller than the effect of extending the screening from 50 to 45 or 40 years. Conclusion: In this study we have obtained a measure of the effect of breast cancer screening in terms of mortality and years of life gained. The Lee and Zelen mathematical models have been very useful for assessing the impact of different modalities of early detection on MR and YLG in Catalonia (Spain).

Comparison of AutoSetä and polysomnography for the detection of apnea-hypopnea events

The use of the flow vs time relationship obtained with the nasal prongs of the AutoSetä (AS) system (diagnosis mode) has been proposed to detect apneas and hypopneas in patients with reasonable nasal patency. Our aim was to compare the accuracy of AS to that of a computerized polysomnographic (PSG) system. The study was conducted on 56 individuals (45 men) with clinical characteristics of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). Their mean (± SD) age was 44.6 ± 12 years and their body mass index was 31.3 ± 7 kg/m2. Data were submitted to parametric analysis to determine the agreement between methods and the intraclass correlation coefficient was calculated. The Student t-test and Bland and Altman plots were also used. Twelve patients had an apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) <10 in bed and 20 had values >40. The mean (± SD) AHI PSG index of 37.6 (28.8) was significantly lower (P = 0.0003) than AHI AS (41.8 (25.3)), but there was a high intraclass correlation coefficient (0.93), with 0.016 variance. For a threshold of AHI of 20, AS showed 73.0% accuracy, 97% sensitivity and 60% specificity, with positive and negative predictive values of 78% and 93%, respectively. Sensitivity, specificity and negative predictive values increased in parallel to the increase in AHI threshold for detecting OSA. However, when the differences of AHI PSG-AS were plotted against their means, the limits of agreement between the methods (95% of the differences) were +13 and -22, showing the discrepancy between the AHI values obtained with PSG and AS. Finally, cubic regression analysis was used to better predict the result of AHI PSG as a function of the method proposed, i.e., AHI AS. We conclude that, despite these differences, AHI measured by AutoSetä can be useful for the assessment of patients with high pre-test clinical probability of OSA, for whom standard PSG is not possible as an initial step in diagnosis.

Integrating drivers influencing the detection of plant pests carried in the international cut flower trade

This paper analyses the cut flower market as an example of an invasion pathway along which species of non-indigenous plant pests can travel to reach new areas. The paper examines the probability of pest detection by assessing information on pest detection and detection effort associated with the import of cut flowers. We test the link between the probability of plant pest arrivals as a precursor to potential invasion, and volume of traded flowers using count data regression models. The analysis is applied to the UK import of specific genera of cut flowers form Kenya between 1996 and 2004. There is a link between pest detection and the Genus of cut flower imported. Hence, pest detection efforts should focus on identifying and targeting those imported plants with a high risk of carrying pest species. For most of the plants studied efforts allocated to inspection have a significant influence on the probabilty of pest detction. However, by better targetting inspection efforts, it is shown that plant inspection effort could be reduced without increasing the risk of pest entry. Similarly, for most of the plants analysed, an increase in volume traded will not necessarily lead to an increase in the number of pests entering the UK. For some species, such as conclude that analysis at the rank of plant Genus is important both to understand the effectiveness of plant pest detection efforts and consequently to manage the risk of introduction of non-indigenous species.

The possibility of primordial black hole direct detection

This thesis explores the possibility of directly detecting blackbody emission from Primordial Black Holes (PBHs). A PBH might form when a cosmological density uctuation with wavenumber k, that was once stretched to scales much larger than the Hubble radius during ination, reenters inside the Hubble radius at some later epoch. By modeling these uctuations with a running{tilt power{law spectrum (n(k) = n0 + a1(k)n1 + a2(k)n2 + a3(k)n3; n0 = 0:951; n1 = ????0:055; n2 and n3 unknown) each pair (n2,n3) gives a di erent n(k) curve with a maximum value (n+) located at some instant (t+). The (n+,t+) parameter space [(1:20,10????23 s) to (2:00,109 s)] has t+ = 10????23 s{109 s and n+ = 1:20{2:00 in order to encompass the formation of PBHs in the mass range 1015 g{1010M (from the ones exploding at present to the most massive known). It was evenly sampled: n+ every 0.02; t+ every order of magnitude. We thus have 41 33 = 1353 di erent cases. However, 820 of these ( 61%) are excluded (because they would provide a PBH population large enough to close the Universe) and we are left with 533 cases for further study. Although only sub{stellar PBHs ( 1M ) are hot enough to be detected at large distances we studied PBHs with 1015 g{1010M and determined how many might have formed and still exist in the Universe. Thus, for each of the 533 (n+,t+) pairs we determined the fraction of the Universe going into PBHs at each epoch ( ), the PBH density parameter (PBH), the PBH number density (nPBH), the total number of PBHs in the Universe (N), and the distance to the nearest one (d). As a rst result, 14% of these (72 cases) give, at least, one PBH within the observable Universe, one{third being sub{stellar and the remaining evenly spliting into stellar, intermediate mass and supermassive. Secondly, we found that the nearest stellar mass PBH might be at 32 pc, while the nearest intermediate mass and supermassive PBHs might be 100 and 1000 times farther, respectively. Finally, for 6% of the cases (four in 72) we might have substellar mass PBHs within 1 pc. One of these cases implies a population of 105 PBHs, with a mass of 1018 g(similar to Halley's comet), within the Oort cloud, which means that the nearest PBH might be as close as 103 AU. Such a PBH could be directly detected with a probability of 10????21 (cf. 10????32 for low{energy neutrinos). We speculate in this possibility.

One step forward: contrasting the effects of Toe clipping and PIT tagging on frog survival and recapture probability

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Serological detection of Toxoplasma gondii, Leishmania infantum and Neospora caninum in cats from an area endemic for leishmaniasis in Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)