Clinical predictors for fatal pulmonary embolism in 15520 patients with venous thromboembolism - Findings from the Registro Informatizado de la Enfermedad TromboEmbolica venosa (RIETE) registry

BACKGROUND Clinical predictors for fatal pulmonary embolism (PE) in patients with venous thromboembolism have never been studied. METHODS AND RESULTS Using data from the international prospective Registro Informatizado de la Enfermedad TromboEmbolica venosa (RIETE) registry about patients with objectively confirmed symptomatic acute venous thromboembolism, we determined independent predictive factors for fatal PE. Between March 2001 and July 2006, 15520 consecutive patients (mean age+/-SD, 66.3+/-16.9 years; 49.7% men) with acute venous thromboembolism were included. Symptomatic deep-vein thrombosis without symptomatic PE was observed in 58.0% (n=9008) of patients, symptomatic nonmassive PE in 40.4% (n=6264), and symptomatic massive PE in 1.6% (n=248). At 3 months, the cumulative rates of overall mortality and fatal PE were 8.65% and 1.68%, respectively. On multivariable analysis, patients with symptomatic nonmassive PE at presentation exhibited a 5.42-fold higher risk of fatal PE compared with patients with deep-vein thrombosis without symptomatic PE (P<0.001). The risk of fatal PE was multiplied by 17.5 in patients presenting with a symptomatic massive PE. Other clinical factors independently associated with an increased risk of fatal PE were immobilization for neurological disease, age >75 years, and cancer. CONCLUSIONS PE remains a potentially fatal disease. The clinical predictors identified in the present study should be included in any clinical risk stratification scheme to optimally adapt the treatment of PE to the risk of the fatal outcome.

Soluble inflammatory markers as predictors of virological response in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus infection treated with interferon-α plus ribavirin

The host immune response plays an important role in viral clearance in patients who are chronically infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) and are treated with interferon and ribavirin. Activation of the immune system involves the release of pro and anti-inflammatory molecules that can be measured in plasma samples. The present study aimed to evaluate the association between pretreatment plasma levels of chemokines and soluble tumor necrosis factor receptors (sTNF-R) and the virological response in treated patients with chronic hepatitis C infection. Forty-one chronically-infected HCV patients that were being treated with interferon-α (IFN-α) plus ribavirin were included in the study. Socio-demographic, clinical and laboratory data were collected and pretreatment plasma levels of chemokine CCL2, CCL3, CCL11, CCL24, chemokine CXCL9, CXCL10, sTNF-R1 and sTNF-R2 were measured. The virological response was assessed at treatment week 12, at the end of treatment and 24 weeks after treatment. Pretreatment CXCL10 levels were significantly higher in patients without an early virological response (EVR) or sustained virological response (SVR) compared to responders [512.9 pg/mL vs. 179.1 pg/mL (p = 0.011) and 289.9 pg/mL vs. 142.7 pg/mL (p = 0.045), respectively]. The accuracy of CXCL10 as a predictor of the absence of EVR and SVR was 0.79 [confidence interval (CI) 95%: 0.59-0.99] and 0.69 (CI 95%: 0.51-0.87), respectively. Pretreatment plasma levels of the other soluble inflammatory markers evaluated were not associated with a treatment response. Pretreatment CXCL10 levels were predictive of both EVR and SVR to IFN-α and ribavirin and may be useful in the evaluation of candidates for therapy.

Longitudinal analysis of patterns and predictors of changes in self-reported adherence to antiretroviral therapy: Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Adherence to combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) is a dynamic process, however, changes in adherence behavior over time are insufficiently understood. METHODS: Data on self-reported missed doses of cART was collected every 6 months in Swiss HIV Cohort Study participants. We identified behavioral groups associated with specific cART adherence patterns using trajectory analyses. Repeated measures logistic regression identified predictors of changes in adherence between consecutive visits. RESULTS: Six thousand seven hundred nine individuals completed 49,071 adherence questionnaires [median 8 (interquartile range: 5-10)] during a median follow-up time of 4.5 years (interquartile range: 2.4-5.1). Individuals were clustered into 4 adherence groups: good (51.8%), worsening (17.4%), improving (17.6%), and poor adherence (13.2%). Independent predictors of worsening adherence were younger age, basic education, loss of a roommate, starting intravenous drug use, increasing alcohol intake, depression, longer time with HIV, onset of lipodystrophy, and changing care provider. Independent predictors of improvements in adherence were regimen simplification, changing class of cART, less time on cART, and starting comedications. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment, behavioral changes, and life events influence patterns of drug intake in HIV patients. Clinical care providers should routinely monitor factors related to worsening adherence and intervene early to reduce the risk of treatment failure and drug resistance.

Rate and predictors of service disengagement in an epidemiological first-episode psychosis cohort.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the prevalence and predictors of service disengagement in a treated epidemiological cohort of first-episode psychosis (FEP) patients. METHODS: The Early Psychosis Prevention and Intervention Centre (EPPIC) in Australia admitted 786 FEP patients from January 1998 to December 2000. Treatment at EPPIC is scheduled for 18 months. Data were collected from patients' files using a standardized questionnaire. Seven hundred four files were available; 44 were excluded, because of a non-psychotic diagnosis at endpoint (n=43) or missing data on service disengagement (n=1). Rate of service disengagement was the outcome of interest, as well as pre-treatment, baseline, and treatment predictors of service disengagement, which were examined via Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: 154 patients (23.3%) disengaged from service. A past forensic history (Hazard ratio [HR]=1.69; 95%CI 1.17-2.45), lower severity of illness at baseline (HR=0.59; 95%CI 0.48-0.72), living without family at discharge (HR=1.75; 95%CI 1.22-2.50) and persistence of substance use disorder during treatment (HR=2.30; 95%CI 1.45-3.66) were significant predictors of disengagement from service. CONCLUSIONS: While engagement strategies are a core element in the treatment of first-episode psychosis, particular attention should be paid to these factors associated with disengagement. Involvement of the family in the treatment process, and focusing on reduction of substance use, need to be pursued in early intervention services.

Predictors of local malaria outbreaks: an approach to the development of an early warning system in Colombia

Risk factor surveillance is a complementary tool of morbidity and mortality surveillance that improves the likelihood that public health interventions are implemented in a timely fashion. The aim of this study was to identify population predictors of malaria outbreaks in endemic municipalities of Colombia with the goal of developing an early warning system for malaria outbreaks. We conducted a multiple-group, exploratory, ecological study at the municipal level. Each of the 290 municipalities with endemic malaria that we studied was classified according to the presence or absence of outbreaks. The measurement of variables was based on historic registries and logistic regression was performed to analyse the data. Altitude above sea level [odds ratio (OR) 3.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.34-9.98], variability in rainfall (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.40-2.44) and the proportion of inhabitants over 45 years of age (OR 0.17, 95% CI 0.08-0.38) were factors associated with malaria outbreaks in Colombian municipalities. The results suggest that environmental and demographic factors could have a significant ability to predict malaria outbreaks on the municipal level in Colombia. To advance the development of an early warning system, it will be necessary to adjust and standardise the collection of required data and to evaluate the accuracy of the forecast models.

Using free data mining software and clustering algorithms to find predictors from student qualifications

In this project a research both in finding predictors via clustering techniques and in reviewing the Data Mining free software is achieved. The research is based in a case of study, from where additionally to the KDD free software used by the scientific community; a new free tool for pre-processing the data is presented. The predictors are intended for the e-learning domain as the data from where these predictors have to be inferred are student qualifications from different e-learning environments. Through our case of study not only clustering algorithms are tested but also additional goals are proposed.

Syphilis in HIV-infected patients: Predictors for serological failure and serofast state.

Purpose: HIV-infected patients treated for syphilis may be at increased risk for serological failure and serofast state. Our aim was to analyse serological response to treatment in HIV-infected patients diagnosed with syphilis, and factors associated with serological cure and serofast state. Methods: Open-label, no controlled study of a series of HIV- patients diagnosed with syphilis during 2004-2011. Patients were categorized by rapid plasma reagin titer (RPR) into success (4-fold decrease in RPR by 12 or 24 months after treatment of early or late syphilis), serofast (success with persistently stable reactive RPR), and failure/ re-infection ( failure to decrease 4-fold in RPR by 12 or 24 months after treatment or sustained 4-fold increase in RPR after treatment response). Results: 141 HIV- patients were diagnosed with syphilis during the study period (104 early syphilis, 36 late or indeterminate latent syphilis). The mean age was 36.3 years, 98.5% were male, and 87.2% homosexual men. In 46 (32.6%) cases, HIV and syphilis infection diagnosis were coincident (mean CD4 457/mm3 and HIV-VL 4.72 log10). Among patients with prior known HIV infection, 65 were on antiretroviral therapy (ART) at syphilis diagnosis (mean CD4 469/ mm3, 76.9% undetectable HIV-VL). 116 patients satisfied criteria for serological response analysis (89 early, 24 late/indeterminate). At 12 months of early syphilis treatment (89.2% penicillin) there were 16 (18%) failures, and at 24 months of late/indeterminate syphilis (91.7% penicillin) there were 5 (18.5%) failures. Overall, 36 (31.0%) patients presented serofast state. Treatment failure was related with lower CD4 count (295 vs 510/μL; p=0.045) only in patients with coincident diagnosis. Serofast state was related with older age (41 vs 36 years; p=0.024), and lower CD4 count (391 vs 513/mm3; p=0.026). Conclusions: In this series of HIV-infected patients, with many patients on ART and with good immunological and virological parameters, serological failure and serofast state were frequent. Immunological status, and age could influence on serological response to syphilis treatment in HIV-infected patients.

Tumour necrosis factor -308 and -238 promoter polymorphisms are predictors of a null virological response in the treatment of Brazilian hepatitis C patients

Certain host single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) affect the likelihood of a sustained virological response (SVR) to treatment in subjects infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV). SNPs in the promoters of interleukin (IL)-10 (-1082 A/G, rs1800896), myxovirus resistance protein 1 (-123 C/A, rs17000900 and -88 G/T, rs2071430) and tumour necrosis factor (TNF) (-308 G/A, rs1800629 and -238 G/A, rs361525) genes and the outcome of PEGylated α-interferon plus ribavirin therapy were investigated. This analysis was performed in 114 Brazilian, HCV genotype 1-infected patients who had a SVR and in 85 non-responders and 64 relapsers. A significantly increased risk of having a null virological response was observed in patients carrying at least one A allele at positions -308 [odds ratios (OR) = 2.58, 95% confidence intervals (CI) = 1.44-4.63, p = 0.001] or -238 (OR = 7.33, 95% CI = 3.59-14.93, p < 0.001) in the TNF promoter. The risk of relapsing was also elevated (-308: OR = 2.87, 95% CI = 1.51-5.44, p = 0.001; -238: OR = 4.20, 95% CI = 1.93-9.10, p < 0.001). Multiple logistic regression of TNF diplotypes showed that patients with at least two copies of the A allele had an even higher risk of having a null virological response (OR = 16.43, 95% CI = 5.70-47.34, p < 0.001) or relapsing (OR = 6.71, 95% CI = 2.18-20.66, p = 0.001). No statistically significant association was found between the other SNPs under study and anti-HCV therapy response.

TRAF1/C5 but not PTPRC variants are potential predictors of rheumatoid arthritis response to anti-tumor necrosis factor therapy.

BACKGROUND The aim of our work was to replicate, in a Southern European population, the association reported in Northern populations between PTPRC locus and response to anti-tumor necrosis factor (anti-TNF) treatment in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We also looked at associations between five RA risk alleles and treatment response. METHODS We evaluated associations between anti-TNF treatment responses assessed by DAS28 change and by EULAR response at six months in 383 Portuguese patients. Univariate and multivariate linear and logistic regression analyses were performed. In a second step to confirm our findings, we pooled our population with 265 Spanish patients. RESULTS No association was found between PTPRC rs10919563 allele and anti-TNF treatment response, neither in Portuguese modeling for several clinical variables nor in the overall population combining Portuguese and Spanish patients. The minor allele for RA susceptibility, rs3761847 SNP in TRAF1/C5 region, was associated with a poor response in linear and logistic univariate and multivariate regression analyses. No association was observed with the other allellic variants. Results were confirmed in the pooled analysis. CONCLUSION This study did not replicate the association between PTPRC and the response to anti-TNF treatment in our Southern European population. We found that TRAF1/C5 risk RA variants potentially influence anti-TNF treatment response.

Predictors of return to work after a knee injury in patients hospitalized in vocational rehabilitation

Introduction.- Knee injuries are frequent in a young and active population. Most of the patients resume their professional activity but few studies were interested in factors that predict a return to work. The aim of this study is to identify these predictors from a large panel of bio-psychosocial variables. We postulated that the return to work 3 months and 2 years after discharge is mostly predicted by psychosocial variables.Patients and methods.- Prospective study, patients hospitalized for a knee injury. Variables measured: the abbreviated injury score (AIS) for the gravity of the injuries, analog visual scale for the intensity of pain, INTERMED for the bio-psychosocial complexity, SF-36 for the quality of life, HADs for the anxiety/depression symptoms and IKDC score for the knee function. Univariate logistic regressions, adjusted for age and gender, were performed in order to predict return to work.Results.- One hundred and twenty-six patients hospitalized during 8 months after the accident were included into this prospective study. A total of 73 (58%) and 75 (59%) questionnaires were available after 3 months and 2 years, respectively. The SF-36 pain was the sole predictor of return to work at 3 months (odds Ratio 1.06 [1.02-1.10], P = 0.01; for a one point increase) and 2 years (odds Ratio 1.06 [1.02-1.10], P = 0.01). At three months, other factors are SF-36 (physic sub-scale), IKDC score, the presence of a work contract and the presence of litigation. The bio-psychosocial complexity, the presence of depressive symptoms predicts the return to work at two years.Discussion.- Our working hypothesis was partially confirmed: some psychosocial factors (i.e. depressive symptoms, work contract, litigation, INTERMED) predict the return to work but the physical health and the knee function, perceived by the patient, are also correlated. Pain is the sole factor isolated at both times (i.e. 3 months and 2 years) and, consequently, appears a key element in the prediction of the return to work. Some factors are accessible to the rehabilitation program but only if an interdisciplinary approach is performed.

Long-term outcome of congenital aortic valve stenosis: predictors of reintervention.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate long-term outcome of initial aortic valve intervention in a paediatric population with congenital aortic stenosis, and to determine risk factors associated with reintervention. PATIENTS AND METHODS: From 1985 to 2009, 77 patients with congenital aortic stenosis and a mean age of 5.8±5.6 years at diagnosis were followed up in our institution for 14.8±9.1 years. RESULTS: First intervention was successful with 86% of patients having a residual peak aortic gradient 1 regurgitation increased by 7%. Long-term survival after the first procedure was excellent, with 91% survival at 25 years. At a mean interval of 7.6±5.3 years, 30 patients required a reintervention (39%), mainly because of a recurrent aortic stenosis. Freedom from reintervention was 97, 89, 75, 53, and 42% at 1, 10, 15, 20, and 25 years, respectively. Predictors of reintervention were residual peak aortic gradient (p=0.0001), aortic regurgitation post-intervention >1 (p=0.02), prior balloon aortic valvuloplasty (p=0.04), and increased left ventricular posterior wall thickness (p=0.1). CONCLUSIONS: Aortic valve intervention is a safe and effective procedure for congenital aortic stenosis with excellent survival results. However, rate of reintervention is high and influenced by increased left ventricular posterior wall thickness pre-intervention, prior balloon valvuloplasty, higher residual peak systolic valve gradient, and more than mild regurgitation post-intervention. The study highlights that long-term follow-up is recommended for these patients.

Changes in Body Composition in Anorexia Nervosa: Predictors of Recovery and Treatment Outcome.

The restoration of body composition (BC) parameters is considered to be one of the most important goals in the treatment of patients with anorexia nervosa (AN). However, little is known about differences between AN diagnostic subtypes [restricting (AN-R) and binge/purging (AN-BP)] and weekly changes in BC during refeeding treatment. Therefore, the main objectives of our study were twofold: 1) to assess the changes in BC throughout nutritional treatment in an AN sample and 2) to analyze predictors of BC changes during treatment, as well as predictors of treatment outcome. The whole sample comprised 261 participants [118 adult females with AN (70 AN-R vs. 48 AN-BP), and 143 healthy controls]. BC was measured weekly during 15 weeks of day-hospital treatment using bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA). Assessment measures also included the Eating Disorders Inventory-2, as well as a number of other clinical indices. Overall, the results showed that AN-R and AN-BP patients statistically differed in all BC measures at admission. However, no significant time×group interaction was found for almost all BC parameters. Significant time×group interactions were only found for basal metabolic rate (p = .041) and body mass index (BMI) (p = .035). Multiple regression models showed that the best predictors of pre-post changes in BC parameters (namely fat-free mass, muscular mass, total body water and BMI) were the baseline values of BC parameters. Stepwise predictive logistic regressions showed that only BMI and age were significantly associated with outcome, but not with the percentage of body fat. In conclusion, these data suggest that although AN patients tended to restore all BC parameters during nutritional treatment, only AN-BP patients obtained the same fat mass values as healthy controls. Put succinctly, the best predictors of changes in BC were baseline BC values, which did not, however, seem to influence treatment outcome.

Predictors of the risk of fibrosis at 10 years after breast conserving therapy for early breast cancer: a study based on the EORTC Trial 22881-10882 'boost versus no boost'.

The EORTC 22881-10882 trial in 5178 conservatively treated early breast cancer patients showed that a 16 Gy boost dose significantly improved local control, but increased the risk of breast fibrosis. To investigate predictors for the long-term risk of fibrosis, Cox regression models of the time to moderate or severe fibrosis were developed on a random set of 1797 patients with and 1827 patients without a boost, and validated in the remaining set. The median follow-up was 10.7 years. The risk of fibrosis significantly increased (P<0.01) with increasing maximum whole breast irradiation (WBI) dose and with concomitant chemotherapy, but was independent of age. In the boost arm, the risk further increased (P<0.01) if patients had post-operative breast oedema or haematoma, but it decreased (P<0.01) if WBI was given with >6 MV photons. The c-index was around 0.62. Nomograms with these factors are proposed to forecast the long-term risk of moderate or severe fibrosis.