943 resultados para pre-industrial Europe
Resumo:
High-resolution major and trace elements (Sr, Cs, Ba, La, Ce, Pr, Nd, Sm, Eu, Tb, Dy, Ho, Er, Tm, Yb, Lu, Bi, U, Tl, Al, S, Ca, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, and Co) quantified in a Mount Everest ice core ( 6518 m above sea level) spanning the period 1650-2002 AD provides the first Asian record of trace element concentrations from the pre-industrial era, and the first continuous high-resolution Asian record from which natural baseline concentrations and subsequent changes due to anthropogenic activities can be examined. Modern concentrations of most elements remain within the pre-industrial range; however, Bi, U, and Cs concentrations and their enrichment factors (EF) have increased since the similar to 1950s, and S and Ca concentrations and their EFs have increased since the late 1980s. A comparison of the Bi, U, Cs, S, and Ca data with other ice core records and production data indicates that the increase in atmospheric concentrations of trace elements is widespread, but that enrichment varies regionally. Likely sources for the recent enrichment of these elements include mining, metal smelting, oil and coal combustion, and end uses for Bi, and mining and refinement for U and Cs. The source of the synchronous enrichment of Ca and S is less certain, but may be related to land use and environmental change.
Resumo:
A substantial amount of the atmospheric carbon taken up on land through photosynthesis and chemical weathering is transported laterally along the aquatic continuum from upland terrestrial ecosystems to the ocean. So far, global carbon budget estimates have implicitly assumed that the transformation and lateral transport of carbon along this aquatic continuum has remained unchanged since pre-industrial times. A synthesis of published work reveals the magnitude of present-day lateral carbon fluxes from land to ocean, and the extent to which human activities have altered these fluxes. We show that anthropogenic perturbation may have increased the flux of carbon to inland waters by as much as 1.0 Pg C yr(-1) since pre-industrial times, mainly owing to enhanced carbon export from soils. Most of this additional carbon input to upstream rivers is either emitted back to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide (similar to 0.4 Pg C yr(-1)) or sequestered in sediments (similar to 0.5 Pg C yr(-1)) along the continuum of freshwater bodies, estuaries and coastal waters, leaving only a perturbation carbon input of similar to 0.1 Pg C yr(-1) to the open ocean. According to our analysis, terrestrial ecosystems store similar to 0.9 Pg C yr(-1) at present, which is in agreement with results from forest inventories but significantly differs from the figure of 1.5 Pg C yr(-1) previously estimated when ignoring changes in lateral carbon fluxes. We suggest that carbon fluxes along the land-ocean aquatic continuum need to be included in global carbon dioxide budgets.
Resumo:
The newly developed atmosphere–ocean-chemistry-climate model SOCOL-MPIOM is presented by demonstrating the influence of the interactive chemistry module on the climate state and the variability. Therefore, we compare pre-industrial control simulations with (CHEM) and without (NOCHEM) interactive chemistry. In general, the influence of the chemistry on the mean state and the variability is small and mainly restricted to the stratosphere and mesosphere. The largest differences are found for the atmospheric dynamics in the polar regions, with slightly stronger northern and southern winter polar vortices in CHEM. The strengthening of the vortex is related to larger stratospheric temperature gradients, which are attributed to a parametrization of the absorption of ozone and oxygen in the Lyman-alpha, Schumann–Runge, Hartley, and Higgins bands. This effect is parametrized in the version with interactive chemistry only. A second reason for the temperature differences between CHEM and NOCHEM is related to diurnal variations in the ozone concentrations in the higher atmosphere, which are missing in NOCHEM. Furthermore, stratospheric water vapour concentrations differ substantially between the two experiments, but their effect on the temperatures is small. In both setups, the simulated intensity and variability of the northern polar vortex is inside the range of present day observations. Sudden stratospheric warming events are well reproduced in terms of their frequency, but the distribution amongst the winter months is too uniform. Additionally, the performance of SOCOL-MPIOM under changing external forcings is assessed for the period 1600–2000 using an ensemble of simulations driven by a spectral solar forcing reconstruction. The amplitude of the reconstruction is large in comparison to other state-of-the-art reconstructions, providing an upper limit for the importance of the solar signal. In the pre-industrial period (1600–1850) the simulated surface temperature trends are in reasonable agreement with temperature reconstructions, although the multi-decadal variability is more pronounced. This enhanced variability can be attributed to the variability in the solar forcing. The simulated temperature reductions during the Maunder Minimum are in the lowest probability range of the proxy records. During the Dalton Minimum, when also volcanic forcing is an important driver of temperature variations, the agreement is better. In the industrial period from 1850 onward SOCOL-MPIOM overestimates the temperature increase in comparison to observational data sets. Sensitivity simulations show that this overestimation can be attributed to the increasing trend in the solar forcing reconstruction that is used in this study and an additional warming induced by the simulated ozone changes.
Resumo:
Archaeological leather samples recovered from the ice field at the Schnidejoch Pass (altitude 2756 m amsl) in the western Swiss Alps were studied using optical, chemical molecular and isotopic (δ13C and δ15N of the bulk leather, and compound-specific δ13C analyses of the organic-solvent extracted fatty acids) methods to obtain insight into the origin of the leather and ancient tanning procedures. For comparison, leathers from modern native animals in alpine environment (red deer, goat, sheep, chamois, and calf/cow) were analyzed using the same approach. Optical and electron microscopically comparisons of Schnidejoch and modern leathers showed that the gross structure (pattern of collagen fibrils and intra-fibrils material) of archaeological leather had survived essentially intact for five millennia. The SEM studies of the hairs from the most important archaeological find, a Neolithic leather legging, show a wave structure of the hair cuticle, which is a diagnostic feature for goatskins. The variations of the bulk δ13C and δ15N values, and δ13C values of the main fatty acids are within the range expected for pre-industrial temperate C3 environment. The archaeological leather samples contain a mixture of indigenous (from the animal) and exogenous plant/animal lipids. An important amount of waxy n-alkanes, n-alkan-1-ols and phytosterols (β-sitosterol, sitostanol) in all samples, and abundant biomarker of conifers (nonacosan-10-ol) in the legging leathers clearly indicate that the Neolithic people were active in a subalpine coniferous forest, and that they used an aqueous extract of diverse plant material for tanning leather.
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The seasonal and annual representativeness of ionic aerosol proxies (among others, calcium, sodium, ammonium and nitrate) in various firn cores in the vicinity of the NEEM drill site in northwest Greenland have been assessed. Seasonal representativeness is very high as one core explains more than 60 % of the variability within the area. The inter-annual representativeness, however, can be substantially lower (depending on the species) making replicate coring indispensable to derive the atmospheric variability of aerosol species. A single core at the NEEM site records only 30 % of the inter-annual atmospheric variability in some species, while five replicate cores are already needed to cover approximately 70 % of the inter-annual atmospheric variability in all species. The spatial representativeness is very high within 60 cm, rapidly decorrelates within 10 m but does not diminish further within 3 km. We attribute this to wind reworking of the snow pack leading to sastrugi formation. Due to the high resolution and seasonal representativeness of the records we can derive accurate seasonalities of the measured species for modern (AD 1990–2010) times as well as for pre-industrial (AD 1623–1750) times. Sodium and calcium show similar seasonality (peaking in February and March respectively) for modern and pre-industrial times, whereas ammonium and nitrate are influenced by anthro pogenic activities. Nitrate and ammonium both peak in May during modern times, whereas during pre-industrial times ammonium peaked during July–August and nitrate during June–July.
Resumo:
Biomass burning is a major source of greenhouse gases and influences regional to global climate. Pre-industrial fire-history records from black carbon, charcoal and other proxies provide baseline estimates of biomass burning at local to global scales spanning millennia, and are thus useful to examine the role of fire in the carbon cycle and climate system. Here we use the specific biomarker levoglucosan together with black carbon and ammonium concentrations from the North Greenland Eemian (NEEM) ice cores (77.49° N, 51.2° W; 2480 m a.s.l) over the past 2000 years to infer changes in boreal fire activity. Increases in boreal fire activity over the periods 1000–1300 CE and decreases during 700–900 CE coincide with high-latitude NH temperature changes. Levoglucosan concentrations in the NEEM ice cores peak between 1500 and 1700 CE, and most levoglucosan spikes coincide with the most extensive central and northern Asian droughts of the past millennium. Many of these multi-annual droughts are caused by Asian monsoon failures, thus suggesting a connection between low- and high-latitude climate processes. North America is a primary source of biomass burning aerosols due to its relative proximity to the Greenland Ice Cap. During major fire events, however, isotopic analyses of dust, back trajectories and links with levoglucosan peaks and regional drought reconstructions suggest that Siberia is also an important source of pyrogenic aerosols to Greenland.
Resumo:
The stability of terrestrial carbon reservoirs is thought to be closely linked to variations in climate 1, but the magnitude of carbon–climate feedbacks has proved dificult to constrain for both modern 2–4 and millennial 5–13 timescales. Reconstructions of atmospheric CO2 concentrations for the past thousand years have shown fluctuations on multidecadal to centennial timescales 5–7, but the causes of these fluctuations are unclear. Here we report high-resolution carbon isotope measurements of CO2 trapped within the ice of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core for the past 1,000 years. We use a deconvolution approach 14 to show that changes in terrestrial organic carbon stores best explain the observed multidecadal variations in the 13 C of CO2 and in CO2 concentrations from 755 to 1850 CE. If significant long-term carbon emissions came from pre-industrial anthropogenic land-use changes over this interval, the emissions must have been offset by a natural terrestrial sink for 13 C-depleted carbon, such as peatlands. We find that on multidecadal timescales, carbon cycle changes seem to vary with reconstructed regional climate changes. We conclude that climate variability could be an important control of fluctuations in land carbon storage on these timescales.
Resumo:
The Mediterranean region has been identified as a global warming hotspot, where future climate impacts are expected to have significant consequences on societal and ecosystem well-being. To put ongoing trends of summer climate into the context of past natural variability, we reconstructed climate from maximum latewood density (MXD) measurements of Pinus heldreichii (1521–2010) and latewood width (LWW) of Pinus nigra (1617–2010) on Mt. Olympus, Greece. Previous research in the northeastern Mediterranean has primarily focused on inter-annual variability, omitting any low-frequency trends. The present study utilizes methods capable of retaining climatically driven long-term behavior of tree growth. The LWW chronology corresponds closely to early summer moisture variability (May–July, r = 0.65, p < 0.001, 1950–2010), whereas the MXD-chronology relates mainly to late summer warmth (July–September, r = 0.64, p < 0.001; 1899–2010). The chronologies show opposing patterns of decadal variability over the twentieth century (r = −0.68, p < 0.001) and confirm the importance of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (sNAO) for summer climate in the northeastern Mediterranean, with positive sNAO phases inducing cold anomalies and enhanced cloudiness and precipitation. The combined reconstructions document the late twentieth—early twenty-first century warming and drying trend, but indicate generally drier early summer and cooler late summer conditions in the period ~1700–1900 CE. Our findings suggest a potential decoupling between twentieth century atmospheric circulation patterns and pre-industrial climate variability. Furthermore, the range of natural climate variability stretches beyond summer moisture availabilityobserved in recent decades and thus lends credibility to the significant drying trends projected for this region in current Earth System Model simulations.
Resumo:
High-resolution records of calibrated proxy data for the past millennium are fundamental to place current changes into the context of pre-industrial natural forced and unforced variability. Although the need for regional spatially-explicit comprehensive reconstructions is widely recognized, the proxy data sources are still scarce, particularly for the Southern Hemisphere and especially for South America. We present a 600-year long warm season temperature record from varved sediments of Lago Plomo, a proglacial lake of the Northern Patagonian Ice field in Southern Chile (46°59′S, 72°52′W, 203 m a.s.l.). The thickness of the bright summer sediment layer relative to the dark winter layer (measured as total brightness; % reflectance 400–730 nm) is calibrated against warm season SONDJF temperature (1900–2009; r = 0.58, p(aut) = 0.056, RE = 0.52; CE = 0.15, RMSEP = 0.28 °C; five-year triangular filtered data). In Lago Plomo, warm summer temperatures lead to enhanced glacier melt and suspended sediment transport, which results in thicker light summer layers and to brighter sediments. Although Patagonia shows pronounced regional differences in decadal temperature trends and variability, the 600 years temperature reconstruction from Lago Plomo compares favourably with other regional/continental temperature records, but also emphasizes significant regional differences for which no data and information existed so far. These regional differences seem to be real as they are also reflected in modern climate data sets (1900–2010). The reconstruction shows pronounced subdecadal – multidecadal variability with cold phases during parts of the Little Ice Age (16th and 18th centuries) and in the beginning of the 20th century. The most prominent warm phase is the 19th century which is as warm as the second half of the 20th century. The exceptional summer warmth AD 1780–1810 is also found in other archives of Northern Patagonia and Central Chile. Our record shows the delayed 20th century warming in the Southern Hemisphere. The comparison between winter precipitation and summer temperature (inter-seasonal coupling) from Lago Plomo reveals alternating phases with parallel and contrasting decadal trends of winter precipitation and summer temperature (positive and negative running correlations Rwinter PP; summer TT). This observation from the sediment proxy data is also confirmed by two sets of reanalysis data for the 20th century. Reanalysis data show that phases with negative correlations between winter precipitation and summer temperature (e.g., dry winters and warm summers) at Lago Plomo are characteristic for periods when circumpolar Westerly flow is displaced southward and enhanced around 60°S.
Resumo:
Temperature changes in Antarctica over the last millennium are investigated using proxy records, a set of simulations driven by natural and anthropogenic forcings and one simulation with data assimilation. Over Antarctica, a long term cooling trend in annual mean is simulated during the period 1000–1850. The main contributor to this cooling trend is the volcanic forcing, astronomical forcing playing a dominant role at seasonal timescale. Since 1850, all the models produce an Antarctic warming in response to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. We present a composite of Antarctic temperature, calculated by averaging seven temperature records derived from isotope measurements in ice cores. This simple approach is supported by the coherency displayed between model results at these data grid points and Antarctic mean temperature. The composite shows a weak multi-centennial cooling trend during the pre-industrial period and a warming after 1850 that is broadly consistent with model results. In both data and simulations, large regional variations are superimposed on this common signal, at decadal to centennial timescales. The model results appear spatially more consistent than ice core records. We conclude that more records are needed to resolve the complex spatial distribution of Antarctic temperature variations during the last millennium.
Resumo:
Changes in temperature and carbon dioxide during glacial cycles recorded in Antarctic ice cores are tightly coupled. However, this relationship does not hold for interglacials. While climate cooled towards the end of both the last (Eemian) and present (Holocene) interglacials, CO₂ remained stable during the Eemian while rising in the Holocene. We identify and review twelve biogeochemical mechanisms of terrestrial (vegetation dynamics and CO₂ fertilization, land use, wild fire, accumulation of peat, changes in permafrost carbon, subaerial volcanic outgassing) and marine origin (changes in sea surface temperature, carbonate compensation to deglaciation and terrestrial biosphere regrowth, shallow-water carbonate sedimentation, changes in the soft tissue pump, and methane hydrates), which potentially may have contributed to the CO₂ dynamics during interglacials but which remain not well quantified. We use three Earth System Models (ESMs) of intermediate complexity to compare effects of selected mechanisms on the interglacial CO₂ and δ¹³ CO₂ changes, focusing on those with substantial potential impacts: namely carbonate sedimentation in shallow waters, peat growth, and (in the case of the Holocene) human land use. A set of specified carbon cycle forcings could qualitatively explain atmospheric CO₂ dynamics from 8ka BP to the pre-industrial. However, when applied to Eemian boundary conditions from 126 to 115 ka BP, the same set of forcings led to disagreement with the observed direction of CO₂ changes after 122 ka BP. This failure to simulate late-Eemian CO₂ dynamics could be a result of the imposed forcings such as prescribed CaCO₃ accumulation and/or an incorrect response of simulated terrestrial carbon to the surface cooling at the end of the interglacial. These experiments also reveal that key natural processes of interglacial CO₂ dynamics eshallow water CaCO₃ accumulation, peat and permafrost carbon dynamics are not well represented in the current ESMs. Global-scale modeling of these long-term carbon cycle components started only in the last decade, and uncertainty in parameterization of these mechanisms is a main limitation in the successful modeling of interglacial CO₂ dynamics.
Resumo:
This dataset characterizes the evolution of western African precipitation indicated by marine sediment geochemical records in comparison to transient simulations using CCSM3 global climate model throughout the Last Interglacial (130-115 ka). It contains (1) defined tie-points (age models), newly published stable isotopes of benthic foraminifera and Al/Si log-ratios of eight marine sediment cores from the western African margin and (2) annual and seasonal rainfall anomalies (relative to pre-industrial values) for six characteristic latitudinal bands in western Africa simulated by CCSM3 (two transient simulations: one non-accelerated and one accelerated experiment).
Resumo:
Changes in past atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations can be determined by measuring the composition of air trapped in ice cores from Antarctica. So far, the Antarctic Vostok and EPICA Dome C ice cores have provided a composite record of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels over the past 650,000 years. Here we present results of the lowest 200 m of the Dome C ice core, extending the record of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration by two complete glacial cycles to 800,000 yr before present. From previously published data and the present work, we find that atmospheric carbon dioxide is strongly correlated with Antarctic temperature throughout eight glacial cycles but with significantly lower concentrations between 650,000 and 750,000 yr before present. Carbon dioxide levels are below 180 parts per million by volume (p.p.m.v.) for a period of 3,000 yr during Marine Isotope Stage 16, possibly reflecting more pronounced oceanic carbon storage. We report the lowest carbon dioxide concentration measured in an ice core, which extends the pre-industrial range of carbon dioxide concentrations during the late Quaternary by about 10 p.p.m.v. to 172-300 p.p.m.v.
Resumo:
Instrumental climate data are limited in length and only available with low spatial coverage before the middle of the 20th century. This is too short to reliably determine and interpret decadal and longer scale climate variability and to understand the underlying mechanisms with sufficient accuracy. A proper knowledge of past variability of the climate system is needed to assess the anthropogenic impact on climate and ecosystems, and also important with regard to long-range climate forecasting. Highly-resolved records of past climate variations that extend beyond pre-industrial times can significantly help to understand long-term climate changes and trends. Indirect information on past environmental and climatic conditions can be deduced from climate-sensitive proxies. Large colonies of massive growing tropical reef corals have been proven to sensitively monitor changes in ambient seawater. Rapid skeletal growth, typically ranging between several millimeters to centimeters per year, allows the development of proxy records at sub-seasonal resolution. Stable oxygen isotopic composition and trace elemental ratios incorporated in the aragonitic coral skeleton can reveal a detailed history of past environmental conditions, e.g., sea surface temperature (SST). In general, coral-based reconstructions from the tropical Atlantic region have lagged behind the extensive work published using coral records from the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Difficulties in the analysis of previously utilized coral archives from the Atlantic, typically corals of the genera Montastrea and Siderastrea, have so far exacerbated the production of long-term high-resolution proxy records. The objective of this study is the evaluation of massive fast-growing corals of the species Diploria strigosa as a new marine archive for climate reconstructions from the tropical Atlantic region. For this purpose, coral records from two study sites in the eastern Caribbean Sea (Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles; and Archipelago Los Roques, Venezuela) were examined. At Guadeloupe, a century-long monthly resolved multi-proxy coral record was generated. Results present the first d18O (Sr/Ca)-SST calibration equations for the Atlantic braincoral Diploria strigosa, that are robust and consistent with previously published values using other coral species from different regions. Both proxies reflect local variability of SST on a sub-seasonal scale, which is a precondition for studying seasonally phase-locked climate variations, as well as track variability on a larger spatial scale (i.e., in the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic). Coral Sr/Ca reliably records local annual to interannual temperature variations and is higher correlated to in-situ air temperature than to grid-SST. The warming calculated from coral Sr/Ca is concurrent with the strong surface temperature increase at the study site during the past decades. Proxy data show a close relationship to major climate signals from the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic (the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)) affecting the seasonal cycle of SST in the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA). Coral oxygen isotopes are also influenced by seawater d18O (d18Osw) which is linked to the hydrological cycle, and capture large-scale climate variability in the NTA region better than Sr/Ca. Results from a quantitative comparison between extreme events in the two most prominent modes of external forcing, namely the ENSO and NAO, and respective events recorded in seasonal coral d18O imply that SST variability at the study site is highly linked to Pacific and North Atlantic variability, by this means supporting the assumptions of observational- and model-based studies which suggest a strong impact of ENSO and NAO forcings onto the NTA region through a modulation of trade wind strength in winter. Results from different spectral analysis tools suggest that interannual climate variability recorded by the coral proxies is II largely dictated by Pacific ENSO forcing, whereas at decadal and longer timescales the influence of the NAO is dominan. tThe Archipelago Los Roques is situated in the southeastern Caribbean Sea, north of the Venezuelan coast. Year-to-year variations in monthly resolved coral d18O of a nearcentury- long Diploria strigosa record are significantly correlated with SST and show pronounced multidecadal variations. About half of the variance in coral d18O can be explained by variations in seawater d18O, which can be estimated by calculating the d18Oresidual via subtracting the SST component from measured coral d18O. The d18Oresidual and a regional precipitation index are highly correlated at low frequencies, suggesting that d18Osw variations are primarily atmospheric-driven. Warmer SSTs at Los Roques broadly coincide with higher precipitation in the southeastern Caribbean at multidecadal time scales, effectively strengthening the climate signal in the coral d18O record. The Los Roques coral d18O record displays a strong and statistically significant relationship to different indices of hurricane activity during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season in boreal summer and is a particularly good indicator of decadal-multidecadal swings in the latter indices. In general, the detection of long-term changes and trends in Atlantic hurricane activity is hampered due to the limited length of the reliable instrumental record and the known inhomogeneity in the observational databases which result from changes in observing practice and technology over the years. The results suggest that coral-derived proxy data from Los Roques can be used to infer changes in past hurricane activity on timescales that extend well beyond the reliable record. In addition, the coral record exhibits a clear negative trend superimposed on the decadal to multidecadal cycles, indicating a significant warming and freshening of surface waters in the genesis region of tropical cyclones during the past decades. The presented coral d18O time series provides the first and, so far, longest continuous coral-based record of hurricane activity. It appears that the combination of both signals (SST and d18Osw) in coral d18O leads to an amplification of large-scale climate signals in the record, and makes coral d18O even a better proxy for hurricane activity than SST alone. Atlantic hurricane activity naturally exhibits strong multidecadal variations that are associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the major mode of lowfrequency variability in the North Atlantic Ocean. However, the mechanisms underlying this multidecadal variability remain controversial, primarily because of the limited instrumental record. The Los Roques coral d18O displays strong multidecadal variability with a period of approximately 60 years that is closely related to the AMO, making the Archipelago Los Roques a very sensitive location for studying low-frequency climate variability in the Atlantic Ocean. In summary, the coral records presented in this thesis capture different key climate variables in the north tropical Atlantic region very well, indicating that fast-growing Diploria strigosa corals represent a promising marine archive for further proxy-based reconstructions of past climate variability on a range of time scales.
Resumo:
We report a decadally resolved record of atmospheric CO2 concentration for the last 1000 years, obtained from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide shallow ice core. The most prominent feature of the pre-industrial period is a rapid ~7 ppm decrease of CO2 in a span of ~20-50 years at ~1600 A.D. This observation confirms the timing of an abrupt atmospheric CO2 decrease of ~10 ppm observed for that time period in the Law Dome ice core CO2 records, but the true magnitude of the decrease remains unclear. Atmospheric CO2 variations over the time period 1000-1800 A.D. are statistically correlated with northern hemispheric climate and tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature. However, the exact relationship between CO2 and climate remains elusive due to regional climate variations and/or uneven geographical data density of paleoclimate records. We observe small differences of 0 ~2% (0 ~ 6 ppm) among the high-precision CO2 records from the Law Dome, EPICA Dronning Maud Land and WAIS Divide Antarctic ice cores. However, those records share common trends of CO2 change on centennial to multicentennial time scales, and clearly show that atmospheric CO2 has been increasing above preindustrial levels since ~1850 A.D.