Strategic development of transport systems: a study of the physical constraints on planning processes

Investment in transport infrastructure can be highly sensitive to uncertainty. The scale and lead time of strategic transport programmes are such that they require continuing policy support and accurate forecasting. Delay, cost escalation and abandonment of projects often result if these conditions are not present. In Part One the physical characteristics of infrastructure are identified as a major constraint on planning processes. The extent to which strategies and techniques acknowledge these constraints is examined. A simple simulation model is developed to evaluate the effects on system development of variations in the scale and lead time of investments. In Part Two, two case studies of strategic infrastructure investment are analysed. The absence of a policy consensus for airport location was an important factor in the delayed resolution of the Third London Airport issue. In London itself, the traffic and environmental effects of major highway investment ultimately resulted in the abandonment of plans to construct urban motorways. In both cases, the infrastructure implications of alternative strategies are reviewed with reference to the problems of uncertainty. In conclusion, the scale of infrastructure investment is considered the most important of the constraints on the processes of transport planning. Adequate appraisal of such constraints may best be achieved by evaluation more closely aligned to policy objectives.

Biological and Physical Factors Affecting the Natural History and Evolution of Encapsulated Development

The evolution of reproductive strategies involves a complex calculus of costs and benefits to both parents and offspring. Many marine animals produce embryos packaged in tough egg capsules or gelatinous egg masses attached to benthic surfaces. While these egg structures can protect against environmental stresses, the packaging is energetically costly for parents to produce. In this series of studies, I examined a variety of ecological factors affecting the evolution of benthic development as a life history strategy. I used marine gastropods as my model system because they are incredibly diverse and abundant worldwide, and they exhibit a variety of reproductive and developmental strategies.

The first study examines predation on benthic egg masses. I investigated: 1) behavioral mechanisms of predation when embryos are targeted (rather than the whole egg mass); 2) the specific role of gelatinous matrix in predation. I hypothesized that gelatinous matrix does not facilitate predation. One study system was the sea slug Olea hansineensis, an obligate egg mass predator, feeding on the sea slug Haminoea vesicula. Olea fed intensely and efficiently on individual Haminoea embryos inside egg masses but showed no response to live embryos removed from gel, suggesting that gelatinous matrix enables predation. This may be due to mechanical support of the feeding predator by the matrix. However, Haminoea egg masses outnumber Olea by two orders of magnitude in the field, and each egg mass can contain many tens of thousands of embryos, so predation pressure on individuals is likely not strong. The second system involved the snail Nassarius vibex, a non-obligate egg mass predator, feeding on the polychaete worm Clymenella mucosa. Gel neither inhibits nor promotes embryo predation for Nassarius, but because it cannot target individual embryos inside an egg mass, its feeding is slow and inefficient, and feeding rates in the field are quite low. However, snails that compete with Nassarius for scavenged food have not been seen to eat egg masses in the field, leaving Nassarius free to exploit the resource. Overall, egg mass predation in these two systems likely benefits the predators much more than it negatively affects the prey. Thus, selection for environmentally protective aspects of egg mass production may be much stronger than selection for defense against predation.

In the second study, I examined desiccation resistance in intertidal egg masses made by Haminoea vesicula, which preferentially attaches its flat, ribbon-shaped egg masses to submerged substrata. Egg masses occasionally detach and become stranded on exposed sand at low tide. Unlike adults, the encased embryos cannot avoid desiccation by selectively moving about the habitat, and the egg mass shape has high surface-area-to-volume ratio that should make it prone to drying out. Thus, I hypothesized that the embryos would not survive stranding. I tested this by deploying individual egg masses of two age classes on exposed sand bars for the duration of low tide. After rehydration, embryos midway through development showed higher rates of survival than newly-laid embryos, though for both stages survival rates over 25% were frequently observed. Laboratory desiccation trials showed that >75% survival is possible in an egg mass that has lost 65% of its water weight, and some survival (<25%) was observed even after 83% water weight lost. Although many surviving embryos in both experiments showed damage, these data demonstrate that egg mass stranding is not necessarily fatal to embryos. They may be able to survive a far greater range of conditions than they normally encounter, compensating for their lack of ability to move. Also, desiccation tolerance of embryos may reduce pressure on parents to find optimal laying substrata.

The third study takes a big-picture approach to investigating the evolution of different developmental strategies in cone snails, the largest genus of marine invertebrates. Cone snail species hatch out of their capsules as either swimming larvae or non-dispersing forms, and their developmental mode has direct consequences for biogeographic patterns. Variability in life history strategies among taxa may be influenced by biological, environmental, or phylogenetic factors, or a combination of these. While most prior research has examined these factors singularly, my aim was to investigate the effects of a host of intrinsic, extrinsic, and historical factors on two fundamental aspects of life history: egg size and egg number. I used phylogenetic generalized least-squares regression models to examine relationships between these two egg traits and a variety of hypothesized intrinsic and extrinsic variables. Adult shell morphology and spatial variability in productivity and salinity across a species geographic range had the strongest effects on egg diameter and number of eggs per capsule. Phylogeny had no significant influence. Developmental mode in Conus appears to be influenced mostly by species-level adaptations and niche specificity rather than phylogenetic conservatism. Patterns of egg size and egg number appear to reflect energetic tradeoffs with body size and specific morphologies as well as adaptations to variable environments. Overall, this series of studies highlights the importance of organism-scale biotic and abiotic interactions in evolutionary patterns.

A rehabilitation intervention to promote physical recovery following intensive care: a detailed description of construct development, rationale and content together with proposed taxonomy to capture processes in a randomised controlled trial.

Background: increasing numbers of patients are surviving critical illness, but survival may be associated with a constellation of physical and psychological sequelae that can cause on going disability and reduced health-related quality of life. Limited evidence currently exists to guide the optimum structure, timing, and content of rehabilitation programmes. There is a need to both develop and evaluate interventions to support and expedite recovery during the post-ICU discharge period. This paper describes the construct development for a complex rehabilitation intervention intended to promote physical recovery following critical illness. The intervention is currently being evaluated in a randomised trial (ISRCTN09412438; funder Chief Scientists Office, Scotland). Methods: the intervention was developed using the Medical Research Council (MRC) framework for developing complex healthcare interventions. We ensured representation from a wide variety of stakeholders including content experts from multiple specialties, methodologists, and patient representation. The intervention construct was initially based on literature review, local observational and audit work, qualitative studies with ICU survivors, and brainstorming activities. Iterative refinement was aided by the publication of a National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guideline (No. 83), publicly available patient stories (Healthtalkonline), a stakeholder event in collaboration with the James Lind Alliance, and local piloting. Modelling and further work involved a feasibility trial and development of a novel generic rehabilitation assistant (GRA) role. Several rounds of external peer review during successive funding applications also contributed to development. Results: the final construct for the complex intervention involved a dedicated GRA trained to pre-defined competencies across multiple rehabilitation domains (physiotherapy, dietetics, occupational therapy, and speech/language therapy), with specific training in post-critical illness issues. The intervention was from ICU discharge to 3 months post-discharge, including inpatient and post-hospital discharge elements. Clear strategies to provide information to patients/families were included. A detailed taxonomy was developed to define and describe the processes undertaken, and capture them during the trial. The detailed process measure description, together with a range of patient, health service, and economic outcomes were successfully mapped on to the modified CONSORT recommendations for reporting non-pharmacologic trial interventions. Conclusions: the MRC complex intervention framework was an effective guide to developing a novel post-ICU rehabilitation intervention. Combining a clearly defined new healthcare role with a detailed taxonomy of process and activity enabled the intervention to be clearly described for the purpose of trial delivery and reporting. These data will be useful when interpreting the results of the randomised trial, will increase internal and external trial validity, and help others implement the intervention if the intervention proves clinically and cost effective.

Youth-Physical Activity Towards Health: evidence and background to the development of the Y-PATH physical activity intervention for adolescents

Background: Despite known benefits of regular physical activity for health and well-being, many studies suggest that levels of physical activity in young people are low, and decline dramatically during adolescence. The purpose of the current research was to gather data on adolescent youth in order to inform the development of a targeted physical activity intervention. Methods: Cross-sectional data on physical activity levels (using self report and accelerometry), psychological correlates of physical activity, anthropometic characteristics, and the fundamental movement skill proficiency of 256 youth (53% male, 12.40 ± 0.51 years) were collected. A subsample (n = 59) participated in focus group interviews to explore their perceptions of health and identify barriers and motivators to participation in physical activity. Results: Findings indicate that the majority of youth (67%) were not accumulating the minimum 60 minutes of physical activity recommended daily for health, and that 99.5% did not achieve the fundamental movement skill proficiency expected for their age. Body mass index data showed that 25% of youth were classified as overweight or obese. Self-efficacy and physical activity attitude scores were significantly different (p < 0.05) between low, moderate and high active participants. Active and inactive youth reported differences in their perceived understanding of health and their barriers to physical activity participation, with active youth relating nutrition, exercise, energy and sports with the definition of ‘being healthy’, and inactive youth attributing primarily nutritional concepts to ‘being healthy’. Conclusions: Data show a need for targeting low levels of physical activity in youth through addressing poor health related activity knowledge and low fundamental movement skill proficiency. The Y-PATH intervention was developed in accordance with the present study findings; details of the intervention format are presented.

Understanding the physical processes of pollutant build-up and wash-off on roof surfaces

Pollutants originating with roof runoff can have a significant impact to urban stormwater quality. This signifies the importance of understanding pollutant processes on roof surfaces. Additionally, knowledge of pollutant processes on roof surfaces is important as roofs are used as the primary catchment surface for domestic rainwater harvesting. In recent years, rainwater harvesting has become one of the primary sustainable water management techniques to counteract the growing demand for potable water. Similar to all impervious services, pollutants associated with roof runoff undergo two primary processes: build-up and wash-off. The knowledge relating to these processes is limited. This paper presents outcomes of an in-depth research study into pollutant build-up and wash-off for roof surfaces. The knowledge will be important in order to develop appropriate strategies to safeguard rainwater users from possible health risks.

Enhancing research and development: designing collaborative environments for innovation

Work environments have previously been studied to identify the strategies, structures and processes which increase the likelihood of creativity, innovation and collaboration for productive workplaces. A number of perspectives have emerged which identify social and cognitive factors known to contribute to or to restrict innovation and collaboration. Recently more attention has been given to designing physical environments to encourage processes relevant to innovation such as creativity (McCoy & Evans, 2002) knowledge sharing (Hemlin, Allwood & Martin, 2008) and collaboration (Bozeman & Corley, 2004). Some attention has been given specifically to research and development environments (Boutellier et al, 2008) but little integration of this research has occurred. In the context of the construction of new purpose-built premises which will bring together under one roof separate public sector agencies engaged in research and development in agriculture, natural resource systems and the environment, this paper examines the extant literature and develops initial propositions for research relevant to the transition, collaboration and performance of research and development in new organizational environments where traditional boundaries have been redrawn.

Development of a particle number and particle mass vehicle emissions inventory for an urban fleet

Motor vehicles are major emitters of gaseous and particulate pollution in urban areas, and exposure to particulate pollution can have serious health effects, ranging from respiratory and cardiovascular disease to mortality. Motor vehicle tailpipe particle emissions span a broad size range from 0.003-10µm, and are measured as different subsets of particle mass concentrations or particle number count. However, no comprehensive inventories currently exist in the international published literature covering this wide size range. This paper presents the first published comprehensive inventory of motor vehicle tailpipe particle emissions covering the full size range of particles emitted. The inventory was developed for urban South-East Queensland by combining two techniques from distinctly different disciplines, from aerosol science and transport modelling. A comprehensive set of particle emission factors were combined with traffic modelling, and tailpipe particle emissions were quantified for particle number (ultrafine particles), PM1, PM2.5 and PM10 for light and heavy duty vehicles and buses. A second aim of the paper involved using the data derived in this inventory for scenario analyses, to model the particle emission implications of different proportions of passengers travelling in light duty vehicles and buses in the study region, and to derive an estimate of fleet particle emissions in 2026. It was found that heavy duty vehicles (HDVs) in the study region were major emitters of particulate matter pollution, and although they contributed only around 6% of total regional vehicle kilometres travelled, they contributed more than 50% of the region’s particle number (ultrafine particles) and PM1 emissions. With the freight task in the region predicted to double over the next 20 years, this suggests that HDVs need to be a major focus of mitigation efforts. HDVs dominated particle number (ultrafine particles) and PM1 emissions; and LDV PM2.5 and PM10 emissions. Buses contributed approximately 1-2% of regional particle emissions.

Development of a colorimetric assay for heparanase activity suitable for kinetic analysis and inhibitor screening

The role that heparanase plays during metastasis and angiogenesis in tumors makes it an attractive target for cancer therapeutics. Despite this enzyme’s significance, most of the assays developed to measure its activity are complex. Moreover, they usually rely on labeling variable preparations of the natural substrate heparan sulfate, making comparisons across studies precarious. To overcome these problems, we have developed a convenient assay based on the cleavage of the synthetic heparin oligosaccharide fondaparinux. The assay measures the appearance of the disaccharide product of heparanase-catalyzed fondaparinux cleavage colorimetrically using the tetrazolium salt WST-1. Because this assay has a homogeneous substrate with a single point of cleavage, the kinetics of the enzyme can be reliably characterized, giving a Km of 46 μM and a kcat of 3.5 s−1 with fondaparinux as substrate. The inhibition of heparanase by the published inhibitor, PI-88, was also studied, and a Ki of 7.9 nM was determined. The simplicity and robustness of this method, should, not only greatly assist routine assay of heparanase activity but also could be adapted for high-throughput screening of compound libraries, with the data generated being directly comparable across studies.

The role of HPC facilies in development of a novel road safety barrier

Water-filled portable road safety barriers are a common fixture in road works, however their use of water can be problematic, both in terms of the quantity of water used and the transportation of the water to the installation site. This project aims to develop a new design of portable road safety barrier, which will make novel use of composite and foam materials in order to reduce the barrier’s reliance on water in order to control errant vehicles. The project makes use of finite element (FE) techniques in order to simulate and evaluate design concepts. FE methods and models that have previously been tested and validated will be used in combination in order to provide the most accurate numerical simulations available to drive the project forward. LS-DYNA code is as highly dynamic, non-linear numerical solver which is commonly used in the automotive and road safety industries. Several complex materials and physical interactions are to be simulated throughout the course of the project including aluminium foams, composite laminates and water within the barrier during standardised impact tests. Techniques to be used include FE, smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) and weighted multi-parameter optimisation techniques. A detailed optimisation of several design parameters with specific design goals will be performed with LS-DYNA and LS-OPT, which will require a large number of high accuracy simulations and advanced visualisation techniques. Supercomputing will play a central role in the project, enabling the numerous medium element count simulations necessary in order to determine the optimal design parameters of the barrier to be performed. Supercomputing will also allow the development of useful methods of visualisation results and the production of highly detailed simulations for end-product validation purposes. Efforts thus far have been towards integrating various numerical methods (including FEM, SPH and advanced materials models) together in an efficient and accurate manner. Various designs of joining mechanisms have been developed and are currently being developed into FE models and simulations.