Prediction of Post-Weaning Fibrinogen Status during Cardiopulmonary Bypass: An Observational Study in 110 Patients.

BACKGROUND After cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB), acquired coagulopathy often leads to post-CPB bleeding. Though multifactorial in origin, this coagulopathy is often aggravated by deficient fibrinogen levels. OBJECTIVE To assess whether laboratory and thrombelastometric testing on CPB can predict plasma fibrinogen immediately after CPB weaning. PATIENTS / METHODS This prospective study in 110 patients undergoing major cardiovascular surgery at risk of post-CPB bleeding compares fibrinogen level (Clauss method) and function (fibrin-specific thrombelastometry) in order to study the predictability of their course early after termination of CPB. Linear regression analysis and receiver operating characteristics were used to determine correlations and predictive accuracy. RESULTS Quantitative estimation of post-CPB Clauss fibrinogen from on-CPB fibrinogen was feasible with small bias (+0.19 g/l), but with poor precision and a percentage of error >30%. A clinically useful alternative approach was developed by using on-CPB A10 to predict a Clauss fibrinogen range of interest instead of a discrete level. An on-CPB A10 ≤10 mm identified patients with a post-CPB Clauss fibrinogen of ≤1.5 g/l with a sensitivity of 0.99 and a positive predictive value of 0.60; it also identified those without a post-CPB Clauss fibrinogen <2.0 g/l with a specificity of 0.83. CONCLUSIONS When measured on CPB prior to weaning, a FIBTEM A10 ≤10 mm is an early alert for post-CPB fibrinogen levels below or within the substitution range (1.5-2.0 g/l) recommended in case of post-CPB coagulopathic bleeding. This helps to minimize the delay to data-based hemostatic management after weaning from CPB.

Management of spontaneous intracranial hypotension - Transorbital ultrasound as discriminator.

OBJECTIVE Spontaneous intracranial hypotension (SIH) is most commonly caused by cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) leakage. Therefore, we hypothesised that patients with orthostatic headache (OH) would show decreased optic nerve sheath diameter (ONSD) during changes from supine to upright position. METHODS Transorbital B-mode ultrasound was performed employing a high-frequency transducer for ONSD measurements in the supine and upright positions. Absolute values and changes of ONSD from supine to upright were assessed. Ultrasound was performed in 39 SIH patients, 18 with OH and 21 without OH, and in 39 age-matched control subjects. The control group comprised 20 patients admitted for back surgery without headache or any orthostatic symptoms, and 19 healthy controls. RESULTS In supine position, mean ONSD (±SD) was similar in patients with (5.38±0.91 mm) or without OH (5.48±0.89 mm; p=0.921). However, in upright position, mean ONSD was different between patients with (4.84±0.99 mm) and without OH (5.53±0.99 mm; p=0.044). Furthermore, the change in ONSD from supine to upright position was significantly greater in SIH patients with OH (-0.53±0.34 mm) than in SIH patients without OH (0.05±0.41 mm; p≤0.001) or in control subjects (0.01±0.38 mm; p≤0.001; area under the curve: 0.874 in receiver operating characteristics analysis). CONCLUSIONS Symptomatic patients with SIH showed a significant decrease of ONSD, as assessed by ultrasound, when changing from the supine to the upright position. Ultrasound assessment of the ONSD in two positions may be a novel, non-invasive tool for the diagnosis and follow-up of SIH and for elucidating the pathophysiology of SIH.

Detection of muscle wasting in patients with chronic heart failure using C-terminal agrin fragment: results from the Studies Investigating Co-morbidities Aggravating Heart Failure (SICA-HF).

AIMS Skeletal muscle wasting affects 20% of patients with chronic heart failure and has serious implications for their activities of daily living. Assessment of muscle wasting is technically challenging. C-terminal agrin-fragment (CAF), a breakdown product of the synaptically located protein agrin, has shown early promise as biomarker of muscle wasting. We sought to investigate the diagnostic properties of CAF in muscle wasting among patients with heart failure. METHODS AND RESULTS We assessed serum CAF levels in 196 patients who participated in the Studies Investigating Co-morbidities Aggravating Heart Failure (SICA-HF). Muscle wasting was identified using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) in 38 patients (19.4%). Patients with muscle wasting demonstrated higher CAF values than those without (125.1 ± 59.5 pmol/L vs. 103.8 ± 42.9 pmol/L, P = 0.01). Using receiver operating characteristics (ROC), we calculated the optimal CAF value to identify patients with muscle wasting as >87.5 pmol/L, which had a sensitivity of 78.9% and a specificity of 43.7%. The area under the ROC curve was 0.63 (95% confidence interval 0.56-0.70). Using simple regression, we found that serum CAF was associated with handgrip (R = - 0.17, P = 0.03) and quadriceps strength (R = - 0.31, P < 0.0001), peak oxygen consumption (R = - 0.5, P < 0.0001), 6-min walk distance (R = - 0.32, P < 0.0001), and gait speed (R = - 0.2, P = 0.001), as well as with parameters of kidney and liver function, iron metabolism and storage. CONCLUSION CAF shows good sensitivity for the detection of skeletal muscle wasting in patients with heart failure. Its assessment may be useful to identify patients who should undergo additional testing, such as detailed body composition analysis. As no other biomarker is currently available, further investigation is warranted.

Diagnosing synaesthesia with online colour pickers: Maximising sensitivity and specificity

The most commonly used method for formally assessing grapheme-colour synaesthesia (i.e., experiencing colours in response to letter and/or number stimuli) involves selecting colours from a large colour palette on several occasions and measuring consistency of the colours selected. However, the ability to diagnose synaesthesia using this method depends on several factors that have not been directly contrasted. These include the type of colour space used (e.g., RGB, HSV, CIELUV, CIELAB) and different measures of consistency (e.g., city block and Euclidean distance in colour space). This study aims to find the most reliable way of diagnosing grapheme-colour synaesthesia based on maximising sensitivity (i.e., ability of a test to identify true synaesthetes) and specificity (i.e., ability of a test to identify true non-synaesthetes). We show, applying ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristics) to binary classification of a large sample of self-declared synaesthetes and non-synaesthetes, that the consistency criterion (i.e., cut-off value) for diagnosing synaesthesia is considerably higher than the current standard in the field. We also show that methods based on perceptual CIELUV and CIELAB colour models (rather than RGB and HSV colour representations) and Euclidean distances offer an even greater sensitivity and specificity than most currently used measures. Together, these findings offer improved heuristics for the behavioural assessment of grapheme-colour synaesthesia.

Incremental value of heart-type fatty acid-binding protein in suspected acute myocardial infarction early after symptom onset.

BACKGROUND The early diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) very soon after symptom onset remains a major clinical challenge, even when using high-sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs-cTnT). METHODS AND RESULTS We investigated the incremental value of heart-type fatty acid-binding protein (hFABP) in a pre-specified subgroup analysis of patients presenting with suspected AMI within 1 h of symptom onset to the emergency department (ED) in a multicentre study. HFABP was measured in a blinded fashion. Two independent cardiologists using all available clinical information, including hs-cTnT, adjudicated the final diagnosis. Overall, 1411 patients were enrolled, of whom 105 patients presented within 1 h of symptom onset. Of these, 34 patients (32.4%) had AMI. The diagnostic accuracy as quantified by the area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC) of hFABP was high (0.84 (95% CI 0.74-0.94)). However, the additional use of hFABP only marginally increased the diagnostic accuracy of hs-cTnT (AUC 0.88 (95% CI 0.81-0.94) for hs-cTnT alone to 0.90 (95% CI 0.83-0.98) for the combination; p=ns). After the exclusion of 18 AMI patients with ST-segment elevation, similar results were obtained. Among the 16 AMI patients without ST-segment elevation, six had normal hs-cTnT at presentation. Of these, hFABP was elevated in two (33.3%) patients. CONCLUSIONS hFABP does not seem to significantly improve the early diagnostic accuracy of hs-cTnT in the important subgroup of patients with suspected AMI presenting to the ED very early after symptom onset.

Diagnostic value of immunoassays for heparin-induced thrombocytopenia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Immunoassays are essential in the workup of patients with suspected heparin-induced thrombocytopenia. However, the diagnostic accuracy is uncertain with regard to different classes of assays, antibody specificities, thresholds, test variations, and manufacturers. We aimed to assess diagnostic accuracy measures of available immunoassays and to explore sources of heterogeneity. We performed comprehensive literature searches and applied strict inclusion criteria. Finally, 49 publications comprising 128 test evaluations in 15 199 patients were included in the analysis. Methodological quality according to the revised tool for quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies was moderate. Diagnostic accuracy measures were calculated with the unified model (comprising a bivariate random-effects model and a hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristics model). Important differences were observed between classes of immunoassays, type of antibody specificity, thresholds, application of confirmation step, and manufacturers. Combination of high sensitivity (>95%) and high specificity (>90%) was found in 5 tests only: polyspecific enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) with intermediate threshold (Genetic Testing Institute, Asserachrom), particle gel immunoassay, lateral flow immunoassay, polyspecific chemiluminescent immunoassay (CLIA) with a high threshold, and immunoglobulin G (IgG)-specific CLIA with low threshold. Borderline results (sensitivity, 99.6%; specificity, 89.9%) were observed for IgG-specific Genetic Testing Institute-ELISA with low threshold. Diagnostic accuracy appears to be inadequate in tests with high thresholds (ELISA; IgG-specific CLIA), combination of IgG specificity and intermediate thresholds (ELISA, CLIA), high-dose heparin confirmation step (ELISA), and particle immunofiltration assay. When making treatment decisions, clinicians should be a aware of diagnostic characteristics of the tests used and it is recommended they estimate posttest probabilities according to likelihood ratios as well as pretest probabilities using clinical scoring tools.

Detection of significant coronary artery disease by noninvasive anatomical and functional imaging.

BACKGROUND The choice of imaging techniques in patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) varies between countries, regions, and hospitals. This prospective, multicenter, comparative effectiveness study was designed to assess the relative accuracy of commonly used imaging techniques for identifying patients with significant CAD. METHODS AND RESULTS A total of 475 patients with stable chest pain and intermediate likelihood of CAD underwent coronary computed tomographic angiography and stress myocardial perfusion imaging by single photon emission computed tomography or positron emission tomography, and ventricular wall motion imaging by stress echocardiography or cardiac magnetic resonance. If ≥1 test was abnormal, patients underwent invasive coronary angiography. Significant CAD was defined by invasive coronary angiography as >50% stenosis of the left main stem, >70% stenosis in a major coronary vessel, or 30% to 70% stenosis with fractional flow reserve ≤0.8. Significant CAD was present in 29% of patients. In a patient-based analysis, coronary computed tomographic angiography had the highest diagnostic accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve being 0.91 (95% confidence interval, 0.88-0.94), sensitivity being 91%, and specificity being 92%. Myocardial perfusion imaging had good diagnostic accuracy (area under the curve, 0.74; confidence interval, 0.69-0.78), sensitivity 74%, and specificity 73%. Wall motion imaging had similar accuracy (area under the curve, 0.70; confidence interval, 0.65-0.75) but lower sensitivity (49%, P<0.001) and higher specificity (92%, P<0.001). The diagnostic accuracy of myocardial perfusion imaging and wall motion imaging were lower than that of coronary computed tomographic angiography (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS In a multicenter European population of patients with stable chest pain and low prevalence of CAD, coronary computed tomographic angiography is more accurate than noninvasive functional testing for detecting significant CAD defined invasively. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION URL http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00979199.

Revascularization Treatment of Emergency Patients with Acute ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction in Switzerland: Results from a Nationwide, Cross-Sectional Study in Switzerland for 2010-2011

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death worldwide and in Switzerland. When applied, treatment guidelines for patients with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) improve the clinical outcome and should eliminate treatment differences by sex and age for patients whose clinical situations are identical. In Switzerland, the rate at which STEMI patients receive revascularization may vary by patient and hospital characteristics. AIMS: To examine all hospitalizations in Switzerland from 2010-2011 to determine if patient or hospital characteristics affected the rate of revascularization (receiving either a percutaneous coronary intervention or a coronary artery bypass grafting) in acute STEMI patients. DATA AND METHODS: We used national data sets on hospital stays, and on hospital infrastructure and operating characteristics, for the years 2010 and 2011, to identify all emergency patients admitted with the main diagnosis of acute STEMI. We then calculated the proportion of patients who were treated with revascularization. We used multivariable multilevel Poisson regression to determine if receipt of revascularization varied by patient and hospital characteristics. RESULTS: Of the 9,696 cases we identified, 71.6% received revascularization. Patients were less likely to receive revascularization if they were female, and 80 years or older. In the multivariable multilevel Poisson regression analysis, there was a trend for small-volume hospitals performing fewer revascularizations but this was not statistically significant while being female (Relative Proportion = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.86 to 0.97) and being older than 80 years was still associated with less frequent revascularization. CONCLUSION: Female and older patients were less likely to receive revascularization. Further research needs to clarify whether this reflects differential application of treatment guidelines or limitations in this kind of routine data.

Comparison of Bispectral Index (BIS) and Patient State Index (PSI) as objective measures of sedation and analgesia in critically ill/injured patients

Critically ill and injured patients require pain relief and sedation to reduce the body's stress response and to facilitate painful diagnostic and therapeutic procedures. Presently, the level of sedation and analgesia is guided by the use of clinical scores which can be unreliable. There is therefore, a need for an objective measure of sedation and analgesia. The Bispectral Index (BIS) and Patient State Index (PSI) were recently introduced into clinical practice as objective measures of the depth of analgesia and sedation. ^ Aim. To compare the different measures of sedation and analgesia (BIS and PSI) to the standard and commonly used modified Ramsay Score (MRS) and determine if the monitors can be used interchangeably. ^ Methods. MRS, BIS and PSI values were obtained in 50 postoperative cardiac surgery patients requiring analgesia and sedation from June to December 2004. The MRS, BIS and PSI values were assessed hourly for up to 6-h by a single observer. ^ The relationship between BIS and PSI values were explored using scatter plots and correlation between MRS, BIS and PSI was determined using Spearman's correlation coefficient. Intra-class correlation (ICC) was used to determine the inter-rater reliability of MRS, BIS and PSI. Kappa statistics was used to further evaluate the agreement between BIS and PSI at light, moderate and deep levels of sedation. ^ Results. There was a positive correlation between BIS and PSI values (Rho = 0.731, p<0.001). Intra-class correlation between BIS and PSI was 0.58, MRS and BIS 0.43 and MRS and PSI 0.27. Using Kappa statistics, agreement between MRS and BIS was 0.35 (95% CI: 0.27–0.43) and for MRS and PSI was 0.21 (95% CI: 0.15–0.28). The kappa statistic for BIS and PSI was 0.45 (95% CI: 0.37–0.52). Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves constructed to detect undersedation indicated an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.91 (95% CI = 0.87 to 0.94) for the BIS and 0.84 (95% CI = 0.79 to 0.88) for the PSI. For detection of oversedation, AUC for the BIS was 0.89 (95% CI = 0.84 to 0.92) and 0.80 (95% CI = 0.75 to 0.85) for the PSI. ^ Conclusions. There is a statistically significant positive correlation between the BIS and PSI but poor correlation and poor test agreement between the MRS and BIS as well as MRS and PSI. Both the BIS and PSI demonstrated a high level of prediction for undersedation and oversedation; however, the BIS and PSI can not be considered interchangeable monitors of sedation. ^

Continuous safety screens for randomized controlled clinical trials with blinded treatment information

Standard methods for testing safety data are needed to ensure the safe conduct of clinical trials. In particular, objective rules for reliably identifying unsafe treatments need to be put into place to help protect patients from unnecessary harm. DMCs are uniquely qualified to evaluate accumulating unblinded data and make recommendations about the continuing safe conduct of a trial. However, it is the trial leadership who must make the tough ethical decision about stopping a trial, and they could benefit from objective statistical rules that help them judge the strength of evidence contained in the blinded data. We design early stopping rules for harm that act as continuous safety screens for randomized controlled clinical trials with blinded treatment information, which could be used by anyone, including trial investigators (and trial leadership). A Bayesian framework, with emphasis on the likelihood function, is used to allow for continuous monitoring without adjusting for multiple comparisons. Close collaboration between the statistician and the clinical investigators will be needed in order to design safety screens with good operating characteristics. Though the math underlying this procedure may be computationally intensive, implementation of the statistical rules will be easy and the continuous screening provided will give suitably early warning when real problems were to emerge. Trial investigators and trial leadership need these safety screens to help them to effectively monitor the ongoing safe conduct of clinical trials with blinded data.^

Performance evaluation in Bayesian adaptive randomization

Bayesian adaptive randomization (BAR) is an attractive approach to allocate more patients to the putatively superior arm based on the interim data while maintains good statistical properties attributed to randomization. Under this approach, patients are adaptively assigned to a treatment group based on the probability that the treatment is better. The basic randomization scheme can be modified by introducing a tuning parameter, replacing the posterior estimated response probability, setting a boundary to randomization probabilities. Under randomization settings comprised of the above modifications, operating characteristics, including type I error, power, sample size, imbalance of sample size, interim success rate, and overall success rate, were evaluated through simulation. All randomization settings have low and comparable type I errors. Increasing tuning parameter decreases power, but increases imbalance of sample size and interim success rate. Compared with settings using the posterior probability, settings using the estimated response rates have higher power and overall success rate, but less imbalance of sample size and lower interim success rate. Bounded settings have higher power but less imbalance of sample size than unbounded settings. All settings have better performance in the Bayesian design than in the frequentist design. This simulation study provided practical guidance on the choice of how to implement the adaptive design. ^

Apply response adaptive randomization to group sequential with early stopping

Group sequential methods and response adaptive randomization (RAR) procedures have been applied in clinical trials due to economical and ethical considerations. Group sequential methods are able to reduce the average sample size by inducing early stopping, but patients are equally allocated with half of chance to inferior arm. RAR procedures incline to allocate more patients to better arm; however it requires more sample size to obtain a certain power. This study intended to combine these two procedures. We applied the Bayesian decision theory approach to define our group sequential stopping rules and evaluated the operating characteristics under RAR setting. The results showed that Bayesian decision theory method was able to preserve the type I error rate as well as achieve a favorable power; further by comparing with the error spending function method, we concluded that Bayesian decision theory approach was more effective on reducing average sample size.^

An examination of the cross-cultural reliability and construct validity of a measure of loneliness

Loneliness is a pervasive, rather common experience in American culture, particularly notable among adolescents. However, the phenomenon is not well documented in the cross-cultural psychiatric literature. For psychiatric epidemiology to encompass a wide array of psychopathologic phenomena, it is important to develop useful measures to characterize and classify both non-clinical and clinical dysfunction in diverse subgroups and cultures.^ The goal of this research was to examine the cross-cultural reliability and construct validity of a scale designed to measure loneliness. The Roberts Loneliness Scale (RLS-8) was administered to 4,060 adolescents ages 10-19 years enrolled in high schools along either side of the Texas-Tamaulipas border region between the U.S. and Mexico. Data collected in 1988 from a study focusing on substance use and psychological distress among adolescents in these regions were used to examine the operating characteristics of the RLS-8. A sample stratified by nationality and language, age, gender, and grade was used for analysis.^ Results indicated that in general the RLS-8 has moderate reliability in the U.S. sample, but not in the Mexican sample. Validity analyses demonstrated that there was evidence for convergent validity of the RLS-8 in the U.S. sample, but none in the Mexican sample. Discriminant validity of the measures in neither sample could be established. Based on the factor structure of the RLS-8, two subscales were created and analyzed for construct validity. Evidence for convergent validity was established for both subscales in both national samples. However, the discriminant validity of the measure remains unsubstantiated in both national samples. Also, the dimensionality of the scale is unresolved.^ One primary goal for future cross-cultural research would be to develop and test better defined culture-specific models of loneliness within the two cultures. From such scientific endeavor, measures of loneliness can be developed or reconstructed to classify the phenomenon in the same manner across cultures. Since estimates of prevalence and incidence are contingent upon reliable and valid screening or diagnostic measures, this objective would serve as an important foundation for future psychiatric epidemiologic inquiry into loneliness. ^

Bayesian adaptive designs for drug combinations in early phase clinical trials

Treating patients with combined agents is a growing trend in cancer clinical trials. Evaluating the synergism of multiple drugs is often the primary motivation for such drug-combination studies. Focusing on the drug combination study in the early phase clinical trials, our research is composed of three parts: (1) We conduct a comprehensive comparison of four dose-finding designs in the two-dimensional toxicity probability space and propose using the Bayesian model averaging method to overcome the arbitrariness of the model specification and enhance the robustness of the design; (2) Motivated by a recent drug-combination trial at MD Anderson Cancer Center with a continuous-dose standard of care agent and a discrete-dose investigational agent, we propose a two-stage Bayesian adaptive dose-finding design based on an extended continual reassessment method; (3) By combining phase I and phase II clinical trials, we propose an extension of a single agent dose-finding design. We model the time-to-event toxicity and efficacy to direct dose finding in two-dimensional drug-combination studies. We conduct extensive simulation studies to examine the operating characteristics of the aforementioned designs and demonstrate the designs' good performances in various practical scenarios.^

Bayesian Adaptive Designs for Early Phase Clinical Trials

My dissertation focuses mainly on Bayesian adaptive designs for phase I and phase II clinical trials. It includes three specific topics: (1) proposing a novel two-dimensional dose-finding algorithm for biological agents, (2) developing Bayesian adaptive screening designs to provide more efficient and ethical clinical trials, and (3) incorporating missing late-onset responses to make an early stopping decision. Treating patients with novel biological agents is becoming a leading trend in oncology. Unlike cytotoxic agents, for which toxicity and efficacy monotonically increase with dose, biological agents may exhibit non-monotonic patterns in their dose-response relationships. Using a trial with two biological agents as an example, we propose a phase I/II trial design to identify the biologically optimal dose combination (BODC), which is defined as the dose combination of the two agents with the highest efficacy and tolerable toxicity. A change-point model is used to reflect the fact that the dose-toxicity surface of the combinational agents may plateau at higher dose levels, and a flexible logistic model is proposed to accommodate the possible non-monotonic pattern for the dose-efficacy relationship. During the trial, we continuously update the posterior estimates of toxicity and efficacy and assign patients to the most appropriate dose combination. We propose a novel dose-finding algorithm to encourage sufficient exploration of untried dose combinations in the two-dimensional space. Extensive simulation studies show that the proposed design has desirable operating characteristics in identifying the BODC under various patterns of dose-toxicity and dose-efficacy relationships. Trials of combination therapies for the treatment of cancer are playing an increasingly important role in the battle against this disease. To more efficiently handle the large number of combination therapies that must be tested, we propose a novel Bayesian phase II adaptive screening design to simultaneously select among possible treatment combinations involving multiple agents. Our design is based on formulating the selection procedure as a Bayesian hypothesis testing problem in which the superiority of each treatment combination is equated to a single hypothesis. During the trial conduct, we use the current values of the posterior probabilities of all hypotheses to adaptively allocate patients to treatment combinations. Simulation studies show that the proposed design substantially outperforms the conventional multi-arm balanced factorial trial design. The proposed design yields a significantly higher probability for selecting the best treatment while at the same time allocating substantially more patients to efficacious treatments. The proposed design is most appropriate for the trials combining multiple agents and screening out the efficacious combination to be further investigated. The proposed Bayesian adaptive phase II screening design substantially outperformed the conventional complete factorial design. Our design allocates more patients to better treatments while at the same time providing higher power to identify the best treatment at the end of the trial. Phase II trial studies usually are single-arm trials which are conducted to test the efficacy of experimental agents and decide whether agents are promising to be sent to phase III trials. Interim monitoring is employed to stop the trial early for futility to avoid assigning unacceptable number of patients to inferior treatments. We propose a Bayesian single-arm phase II design with continuous monitoring for estimating the response rate of the experimental drug. To address the issue of late-onset responses, we use a piece-wise exponential model to estimate the hazard function of time to response data and handle the missing responses using the multiple imputation approach. We evaluate the operating characteristics of the proposed method through extensive simulation studies. We show that the proposed method reduces the total length of the trial duration and yields desirable operating characteristics for different physician-specified lower bounds of response rate with different true response rates.