Some factors affecting reproductive success in crossbred dairy cows on smallholder farms in coastal north-east Tanzania

A 2-year longitudinal survey was carried out to investigate factors affecting reproduction in crossbred cows on smallholder farms in and around an urban centre. Sixty farms were visited at approximately 2-week intervals and details of reproductive traits and body condition score (BCS) were collected. Fifteen farms were within the town (U), 23 farms were approximately 5 km from town (SU), and 22 farms approximately 10 km from town (PU). Sources of variation in reproductive traits were investigated using a general linear model (GLM) by a stepwise forward selection and backward elimination approach to judge important independent variables. Factors considered for the first step of formulation of the model included location (PU, SU and U), type of insemination, calving season, BCS at calving, at 3 months postpartum and at 6 months postpartum, calving year, herd size category, source of labour (hired and family labour), calf rearing method (bucket and partial suckling) and parity number of the cow. The effects of the independent variables identified were then investigated using a non-parametric survival technique. The number of days to first oestrus was increased on the U site (p = 0.045) and when family labour was used (p = 0.02). The non-parametric test confirmed the effect of site (p = 0.059), but effect of labour was not significant. The number of days from calving to conception was reduced by hiring labour (p = 0.003) and using natural service (p = 0.028). The non-parametric test confirmed the effects of type of insemination (p = 0.0001) while also identifying extended calving intervals on U and SU sites (p = 0.014). Labour source was again non-significant. Calving interval was prolonged on U and SU sites (p = 0.021), by the use of AI (p = 0.031) and by the use of family labour (p = 0.001). The non-parametric test confirmed the effect of site (p = 0.008) and insemination type (p > 0.0001) but not of labour source. It was concluded that under favourable conditions (PU site, hired labour and natural service) calving intervals of around 440 days could be achieved.

Development of a method fon non-destructive testing of fruits using scanning laser vibrometry (SLV)

Quality control on fruits requires reliable methods, able to assess with reasonable accuracy and possibly in a non-destructive way their physical and chemical characteristics. More specifically, a decreased firmness indicates the presence of damage or defects in the fruit or else that the fruit has exceeded its “best before date”, becoming unsuitable for consumption. In high-value exotic fruits, such as mangoes, where firmness cannot be easily measured from a simple observation of texture, colour changes and unevenness of fruits surface, the use of non-destructive techniques is highly recommendable. In particular, the application of Laser vibrometry, based on the Doppler effect, a non-contact technique sensitive to differences in displacements inferior to the nanometre, appears ideal for a possible on-line control on food. Previous results indicated that a phase shift can be in a repeatable way associated with the presence of damage on the fruit, whilst a decreased firmness results in significant differences in the displacement of the fruits under the same excitation signal. In this work, frequency ranges for quality control via the application of a sound chirp are suggested, based on the measurement of the signal coherence. The variations of the average vibration spectrum of a grid of points, or of point-by-point signal velocity allows the go-no go recognition of “firm” and “over-ripe” fruits, with notable success in the particular case of mangoes. The future exploitation of this work will include the application of this method to allow on-line control during conveyor belt distribution of fruits.

Online bayesian inference in some time-frequency representations of non-stationary processes

The use of Bayesian inference in the inference of time-frequency representations has, thus far, been limited to offline analysis of signals, using a smoothing spline based model of the time-frequency plane. In this paper we introduce a new framework that allows the routine use of Bayesian inference for online estimation of the time-varying spectral density of a locally stationary Gaussian process. The core of our approach is the use of a likelihood inspired by a local Whittle approximation. This choice, along with the use of a recursive algorithm for non-parametric estimation of the local spectral density, permits the use of a particle filter for estimating the time-varying spectral density online. We provide demonstrations of the algorithm through tracking chirps and the analysis of musical data.

Linear and non-linear transmission of equity return volatility: evidence from the US, Japan and Australia

This paper models the transmission of shocks between the US, Japanese and Australian equity markets. Tests for the existence of linear and non-linear transmission of volatility across the markets are performed using parametric and non-parametric techniques. In particular the size and sign of return innovations are important factors in determining the degree of spillovers in volatility. It is found that a multivariate asymmetric GARCH formulation can explain almost all of the non-linear causality between markets. These results have important implications for the construction of models and forecasts of international equity returns.

Non-stationary frequency analysis of extreme daily rainfall in Sao Paulo, Brazil

This work is an assessment of frequency of extreme values (EVs) of daily rainfall in the city of Sao Paulo. Brazil, over the period 1933-2005, based on the peaks-over-threshold (POT) and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) approach. Usually. a GPD model is fitted to a sample of POT Values Selected With a constant threshold. However. in this work we use time-dependent thresholds, composed of relatively large p quantities (for example p of 0.97) of daily rainfall amounts computed from all available data. Samples of POT values were extracted with several Values of p. Four different GPD models (GPD-1, GPD-2, GPD-3. and GDP-4) were fitted to each one of these samples by the maximum likelihood (ML) method. The shape parameter was assumed constant for the four models, but time-varying covariates were incorporated into scale parameter of GPD-2. GPD-3, and GPD-4, describing annual cycle in GPD-2. linear trend in GPD-3, and both annual cycle and linear trend in GPD-4. The GPD-1 with constant scale and shape parameters is the simplest model. For identification of the best model among the four models WC used rescaled Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) with second-order bias correction. This criterion isolates GPD-3 as the best model, i.e. the one with positive linear trend in the scale parameter. The slope of this trend is significant compared to the null hypothesis of no trend, for about 98% confidence level. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test also showed presence of positive trend in the annual frequency of excess over high thresholds. with p-value being virtually zero. Therefore. there is strong evidence that high quantiles of daily rainfall in the city of Sao Paulo have been increasing in magnitude and frequency over time. For example. 0.99 quantiles of daily rainfall amount have increased by about 40 mm between 1933 and 2005. Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Coastal marine habitat mapping using multi-beam acoustics, video data and a decision tree classifier on the temperate south-east Australian continental shelf

In this habitat mapping study, multi-beam acoustic data are integrated with extensive, precisely geo-referenced video validation data in a GIS environment to classify benthic substrates and biota at a 33km2 site in the near shore waters of Victoria, Australia. Using an automated decision-tree classification method, 5 representative biotic groups were identified in the Cape Nelson survey area using a combination of multi-beam bathymetry, backscatter and derivative products. Rigorous error assessment of derived, classified maps produced high overall accuracies (>85%) for all mapping products. In addition, a discrete multivariate analysis technique (kappa analysis) was used to assess classification accuracy. High-resolution (2.5m cell-size) representation of sea floor morphology and textural characteristics provided by multi-beam bathymetry and backscatter datasets, allowed the interpretation of benthic substrates of the Cape Nelson site and the communities of sessile organisms that populate them. Non-parametric multivariate statistical analysis (ANOSIM) revealed a significant difference in biotic composition between depth strata, and between substrate types. Incorporated with other descriptive measures, these results indicate that depth and substrate are important factors in the distributional ecology of the biotic communities at the Cape Nelson study site. BIOENV analysis indicates that derivatives of both multi-beam datasets (bathymetry and backscatter) are correlated with distribution and density of biotic communities. Results from this study provide new tools for research and management of the coastal zone.

An illustration of variable precision rough set theory : The gender classification of the European barn swallow (Hirundo rustica)

This paper introduces a new technique in the investigation of object classification and illustrates the potential use of this technique for the analysis of a range of biological data, using avian morphometric data as an example. The nascent variable precision rough sets (VPRS) model is introduced and compared with the decision tree method ID3 (through a ‘leave n out’ approach), using the same dataset of morphometric measures of European barn swallows (Hirundo rustica) and assessing the accuracy of gender classification based on these measures. The results demonstrate that the VPRS model, allied with the use of a modern method of discretization of data, is comparable with the more traditional non-parametric ID3 decision tree method. We show that, particularly in small samples, the VPRS model can improve classification and to a lesser extent prediction aspects over ID3. Furthermore, through the ‘leave n out’ approach, some indication can be produced of the relative importance of the different morphometric measures used in this problem. In this case we suggest that VPRS has advantages over ID3, as it intelligently uses more of the morphometric data available for the data classification, whilst placing less emphasis on variables with low reliability. In biological terms, the results suggest that the gender of swallows can be determined with reasonable accuracy from morphometric data and highlight the most important variables in this process. We suggest that both analysis techniques are potentially useful for the analysis of a range of different types of biological datasets, and that VPRS in particular has potential for application to a range of biological circumstances.

Large-scale statistical modeling of motion patterns : a Bayesian nonparametric approach

We propose a novel framework for large-scale scene understanding in static camera surveillance. Our techniques combine fast rank-1 constrained robust PCA to compute the foreground, with non-parametric Bayesian models for inference. Clusters are extracted in foreground patterns using a joint multinomial+Gaussian Dirichlet process model (DPM). Since the multinomial distribution is normalized, the Gaussian mixture distinguishes between similar spatial patterns but different activity levels (eg. car vs bike). We propose a modification of the decayed MCMC technique for incremental inference, providing the ability to discover theoretically unlimited patterns in unbounded video streams. A promising by-product of our framework is online, abnormal activity detection. A benchmark video and two surveillance videos, with the longest being 140 hours long are used in our experiments. The patterns discovered are as informative as existing scene understanding algorithms. However, unlike existing work, we achieve near real-time execution and encouraging performance in abnormal activity detection.

Estimação de parâmetros genéticos para resistência à infecção por IMNV em camarões Litopenaeus vannamei por meio de análise de sobrevivência

The main specie of marine shrimp raised at Brazil and in the world is Litopenaeus vannamei, which had arrived in Brazil in the `80s. However, the entry of infectious myonecrosis virus (IMNV), causing the infectious myonecrosis disease in marine shrimps, brought economic losses to the national shrimp farming, with up to 70% of mortality in the shrimp production. In this way, the objective was to evaluate the survival of shrimps Litopenaeus vannamei infected with IMNV using the non parametric estimator of Kaplan-Meier and a model of frailty for grouped data. It were conducted three tests of viral challenges lasting 20 days each, at different periods of the year, keeping the parameters of pH, temperature, oxygen and ammonia monitored daily. It was evaluated 60 full-sib families of L. vannamei infected by IMNV in each viral challenge. The confirmation of the infection by IMNV was performed using the technique of PCR in real time through Sybr Green dye. Using the Kaplan-Meier estimator it was possible to detect significant differences (p <0.0001) between the survival curves of families and tanks and also in the joint analysis between viral challenges. It were estimated in each challenge, genetic parameters such as genetic value of family, it`s respective rate risk (frailty), and heritability in the logarithmic scale through the frailty model for grouped data. The heritability estimates were respectively 0.59; 0.36; and 0.59 in the viral challenges 1; 2; and 3, and it was also possible to identify families that have lower and higher rates of risk for the disease. These results can be used for selecting families more resistant to the IMNV infection and to include characteristic of disease resistance in L. vannamei into the genetic improvement programs

Estimativa populacional e uso do hábitat do boto-cinza (Sotalia guianensis) no litoral sul do Rio Grande do Norte

Four areas are known as of frequent usage by Guiana dolphins (Sotalia guianensis) in the south coast of Rio Grande do Norte state, northeast Brazil: Tabatinga, Pipa, Lagoa de Guaraíras and Baia Formosa. This extension of 40 km of shoreline is under increasing anthropogenic impacts due to continuous development of the coastal areas and vessel traffic. The objective of this study was to investigate aspects of population biology and habitat use of the population of Sotalia guianensis in the south coast of Rio Grande do Norte. It was applied the photo-identification technique and posterior methods of capture-recapture for population estimation (POPAN extension in MARK). The distribution, movement and site fidelity of the dolphins were analyzed trough the geographic information system (GIS) and group characteristics and behavior trough non-parametric statistics. Field work was conducted on board a 10m motor vessel from March 2008 to March 2009. Photo-identification effort was 329h with 113h of direct observation of the dolphins. The population estimatives for each area: Tabatinga: 75 (63-92); Pipa 105 (88-129); Lagoa de Guaraíras: 27 (18-54) e Baia Formosa: 112 (89-129) individuals. Total population estimative was: 223 (192 a 297). High site fidelity was detected for only part of the population (<15%) as low site fidelity and transients individuals were also detected (>20%). It was observed frequent movements between Tabatinga, Lagoa de Guaraíras and Pipa, but not Baía Formosa. This suggests a division in two communities along this shore extension: one in Pipa and other in Baía Formosa. Group size was small, most groups with up to 10 dolphins. The areas were use intensively, only in Lagoa de Guaraíras dolphins were not seen in all field trips. Lagoa de Guaraíras is an area used by small groups exclusively for foraging. In Tabatinga and Pipa dolphins concentrated close to the shore, in the inner sector of the area and the main activity is also foraging. Significant larger groups were seen in socializing behavior but there was no difference in group size between the inner and external sectors of the area. The presence of calves and juveniles were significant greater in the inner areas of Tabatinga and Pipa, confirming the hypothesis that these beaches are also used for parental care. In Baia Formosa dolphins concentrated in the outer sector and foraging was also predominant. Significant larger groups were seen in the outer sector, mainly engaged in mixed behaviors of travel/foraging, possibly in some kind of group foraging. Calves and juveniles were significant more present in the outer sector where group size was also larger. In general there was no difference in area usage and period of the day. Sotalia guianensis has characteristics that make the species vulnerable to human activities such as small population concentrated in patches of suitable habitats restrict to coastal areas. We hope that this study bring new information for the species and help for the adequate management of the area in order to assure the presence of the dolphins as well as its behavior pattern and gene flow betweencommunities.

Physiotherapeutic stimulation: Early prevention of lymphedema following axillary lymph node dissection for breast cancer treatment

The aim of this study was to confirm the effectiveness of early physiotherapeutic stimulation for lymphatic flaw progression in patients with breast cancer undergoing axillary dissection This was a randomized experimental study oil 22 patients who underwent lymphoscintigraphy in their arms on two different occasions, firstly without stimulation and secondly after randomization into two groups without physiotherapeutic stimulation (WOPS, n=10) and with physiotherapeutic stimulation (WPS, n=12) The lymphoscintigraphy scan was performed with (99m)Tc-phytate administered into the second interdigital space of the hand, ipsilaterally to the dissected axilla, in three phases dynamic, static, and delayed whole body imaging Physiotherapeutic stimulation was earned out using Foldi's technique In both groups, images from the two examinations of each patient were compared Flow progression was considered positive when, on the second damnation, the radiopharmaceutical reached areas more distant from the injection site Statistical analysis was used to evaluate frequencies, percentages and central trend measurements, and non-parametric tests were conducted Descriptive analysis showed that the WPS and WOPS groups were similar M terms of mean age, weight, height, body mass index and number of lymph nodes removed There were statistically significant associations between physiotherapeutic stimulation and radiopharmaceutical progression at all three phases of the study (p < 0 0001) Early physiotherapeutic stimulation in beast cancer patients undergoing radical axillary dissection is effective, and can therefore be indicated as a preventive measure against lymphedema

Estimating the impact of environmental conditions on hatching results using multivariable analysis

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Direct and transdentinal antibacterial activity of chlorhexidine

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Non-stationary frequency analysis of extreme daily rainfall in São Paulo, Brazil

This work is an assessment of frequency of extreme values (EVs) of daily rainfall in the city of São Paulo. Brazil, over the period 1933-2005, based on the peaks-over-threshold (POT) and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) approach. Usually. a GPD model is fitted to a sample of POT Values Selected With a constant threshold. However. in this work we use time-dependent thresholds, composed of relatively large p quantities (for example p of 0.97) of daily rainfall amounts computed from all available data. Samples of POT values were extracted with several Values of p. Four different GPD models (GPD-1, GPD-2, GPD-3. and GDP-4) were fitted to each one of these samples by the maximum likelihood (ML) method. The shape parameter was assumed constant for the four models, but time-varying covariates were incorporated into scale parameter of GPD-2. GPD-3, and GPD-4, describing annual cycle in GPD-2. linear trend in GPD-3, and both annual cycle and linear trend in GPD-4. The GPD-1 with constant scale and shape parameters is the simplest model. For identification of the best model among the four models WC used rescaled Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) with second-order bias correction. This criterion isolates GPD-3 as the best model, i.e. the one with positive linear trend in the scale parameter. The slope of this trend is significant compared to the null hypothesis of no trend, for about 98% confidence level. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test also showed presence of positive trend in the annual frequency of excess over high thresholds. with p-value being virtually zero. Therefore. there is strong evidence that high quantiles of daily rainfall in the city of São Paulo have been increasing in magnitude and frequency over time. For example. 0.99 quantiles of daily rainfall amount have increased by about 40 mm between 1933 and 2005. Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Absence motivated by illness: A non-concurrent prospective study of physical education teachers in the municipal education system of the city of Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil

The object of this investigation was to identify and analize aspects of the health status related to absenteism in physical education teachers in the municipal education system of the city of Campinas, Brazil, as related to the medical leave program. The non-concurrent prospective study was accomplished by means of a comparison with teachers who work only in the classroom, refering to a three year period. In the variables of greatest interest, the Pearson non-parametric chi-square (X2) statistical test was adopted. Calculations of relative risk and level of confidence were made using the Epi-info computer program. Significant differences were observed in the following diagnostic groups favoring the not exposed group: i) Supplementary Classification of factors that exercise influence over the health status and access to health services and ii) Digestive system illness; while the physical education teachers showed a significant difference in: i) diseases of the musculoskeletal and connective tissue system and ii) Injuries and poisoing. Possible explications for some of the adverse effects as well as the protective ones that were observed include physical activity as a way of life along with being a physical education teacher and on the other side, peculiar behavior of epidemiological descriptive characteristics, like sex and age, within the socio-economic context of the country. © Copyright Moreira Jr. Editora.