Sensitivity of the WRF model to PBL parametrisations and nesting techniques: evaluation of wind storms over complex terrain

Simulating surface wind over complex terrain is a challenge in regional climate modelling. Therefore, this study aims at identifying a set-up of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) model that minimises system- atic errors of surface winds in hindcast simulations. Major factors of the model configuration are tested to find a suitable set-up: the horizontal resolution, the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterisation scheme and the way the WRF is nested to the driving data set. Hence, a number of sensitivity simulations at a spatial resolution of 2 km are carried out and compared to observations. Given the importance of wind storms, the analysis is based on case studies of 24 historical wind storms that caused great economic damage in Switzerland. Each of these events is downscaled using eight different model set-ups, but sharing the same driving data set. The results show that the lack of representation of the unresolved topography leads to a general overestimation of wind speed in WRF. However, this bias can be substantially reduced by using a PBL scheme that explicitly considers the effects of non-resolved topography, which also improves the spatial structure of wind speed over Switzerland. The wind direction, although generally well reproduced, is not very sensitive to the PBL scheme. Further sensitivity tests include four types of nesting methods: nesting only at the boundaries of the outermost domain, analysis nudging, spectral nudging, and the so-called re-forecast method, where the simulation is frequently restarted. These simulations show that restricting the freedom of the model to develop large-scale disturbances slightly increases the temporal agreement with the observations, at the same time that it further reduces the overestimation of wind speed, especially for maximum wind peaks. The model performance is also evaluated in the outermost domains, where the resolution is coarser. The results demonstrate the important role of horizontal resolution, where the step from 6 to 2 km significantly improves model performance. In summary, the combination of a grid size of 2 km, the non-local PBL scheme modified to explicitly account for non-resolved orography, as well as analysis or spectral nudging, is a superior combination when dynamical downscaling is aimed at reproducing real wind fields.

Numerical corrections to the strong coupling effective Polyakov-line action for finite T Yang-Mills theory

We consider a three-dimensional effective theory of Polyakov lines derived previously from lattice Yang-Mills theory and QCD by means of a resummed strong coupling expansion. The effective theory is useful for investigations of the phase structure, with a sign problem mild enough to allow simulations also at finite density. In this work we present a numerical method to determine improved values for the effective couplings directly from correlators of 4d Yang-Mills theory. For values of the gauge coupling up to the vicinity of the phase transition, the dominant short range effective coupling are well described by their corresponding strong coupling series. We provide numerical results also for the longer range interactions, Polyakov lines in higher representations as well as four-point interactions, and discuss the growing significance of non-local contributions as the lattice gets finer. Within this approach the critical Yang-Mills coupling β c is reproduced to better than one percent from a one-coupling effective theory on N τ = 4 lattices while up to five couplings are needed on N τ = 8 for the same accuracy.

Deep Points Consolidation

In this paper, we present a consolidation method that is based on a new representation of 3D point sets. The key idea is to augment each surface point into a deep point by associating it with an inner point that resides on the meso-skeleton, which consists of a mixture of skeletal curves and sheets. The deep points representation is a result of a joint optimization applied to both ends of the deep points. The optimization objective is to fairly distribute the end points across the surface and the meso-skeleton, such that the deep point orientations agree with the surface normals. The optimization converges where the inner points form a coherent meso-skeleton, and the surface points are consolidated with the missing regions completed. The strength of this new representation stems from the fact that it is comprised of both local and non-local geometric information. We demonstrate the advantages of the deep points consolidation technique by employing it to consolidate and complete noisy point-sampled geometry with large missing parts.

Hormone therapy and physical activity as predictors of lung cancer risk and survival: The California Teachers Study

Cigarette smoking is responsible for the majority of lung cancer cases worldwide; however, a proportion of never smokers still develop lung cancer over their lifetime, prompting investigation into additional factors that may modify lung cancer incidence, as well as mortality. Although hormone therapy (HT), physical activity (PA), and lung cancer have been previously examined, the associations remain unclear. This study investigated exposure to HT and PA that may modulate underlying mechanisms of lung cancer etiology and progression among women by using existing, de-identified data from the California Teachers Study (CTS).^ The CTS cohort, established in 1995–1996, has 133,479 active and retired female teachers and administrators, recruited through the California State Teachers Retirement System, and followed annually for cancer diagnosis, death, and change of address. Each woman enrolled in the CTS returned a questionnaire covering a wide variety of issues related to cancer risk and women's health, including recent and past HT use and physical activity, as well as active and environmental cigarette smoke exposure. Complete data to assess the associations between HT and lung cancer risk and survival were available for 60,592 postmenopausal women. Between 1995 and 2007, 727 of these women were diagnosed with invasive lung cancer; 441 of these died. Complete data to assess the associations between PA and lung cancer risk and survival were available for 118,513 women. Between 1995 and 2007, 853 of these women were diagnosed with invasive lung cancer; 516 of these died.^ After careful adjustment for smoking habits and other potential confounders, no measure of HT use was associated with lung cancer risk; however, any HT use (vs. no use) was associated with a decrease in lung-cancer-specific mortality. Specifically, among women who only used estrogen (E-only), decreases in lung cancer mortality were seen for recent use, but not for former use; no association was observed for estrogen plus progestin (E+P). Furthermore, among former users of HT, a statistically significant decrease in lung cancer mortality was observed for E-only use within 5 years prior to baseline, but not for E-only use >5 years prior to baseline. Neither long-term recreational PA nor recent recreational PA alone were associated with lung cancer risk; however, among women with a BMI<25 and ever smokers, high long-term moderate+strenuous PA was associated with a decrease in lung cancer risk. Women with non-local disease showed a decrease in lung cancer mortality associated with increasing duration of strenuous long-term activity, and 1.50-3.00 h/wk/y of recent moderate or recent strenuous PA. Long-term moderate PA was associated with decreased lung cancer mortality in never smokers, whereas recent moderate PA was associated with increased lung cancer mortality in current smokers. ^ Placing our findings in the context of the current literature, HT does not appear to be associated with lung cancer risk and previous studies reporting a protective effect of HT use on lung cancer risk may be subject to residual confounding by smoking. Looking at our findings regarding PA overall, the evidence still remains inconclusive regarding whether or not physical activity influence lung cancer risk or mortality. Our results suggest that recreational PA may associated with decreased lung cancer risk among women with BMI<25 and ever smoking-women; however, residual confounding by smoking should be strongly considered. To our knowledge, this is the first study to investigate lifetime recreational PA and lung cancer mortality among women. Our results contribute to the growing body of knowledge regarding non-smoking-related risk factors for lung cancer incidence and mortality among women. Given the potential clinical and interventional significance, further study and validation of these findings is warranted.^

Intensive care unit utilization among patients with cancer at the end of life

Over the last 2 decades, survival rates in critically ill cancer patients have improved. Despite the increase in survival, the intensive care unit (ICU) continues to be a location where end-of-life care takes place. More than 20% of deaths in the United States occur after admission to an ICU, and as baby boomers reach the seventh and eighth decades of their lives, the volume of patients in the ICU is predicted to rise. The aim of this study was to evaluate intensive care unit utilization among patients with cancer who were at the end of life. End of life was defined using decedent and high-risk cohort study designs. The decedent study evaluated characteristics and ICU utilization during the terminal hospital stay among patients who died at The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center during 2003-2007. The high-risk cohort study evaluated characteristics and ICU utilization during the index hospital stay among patients admitted to MD Anderson during 2003-2007 with a high risk of in-hospital mortality. Factors associated with higher ICU utilization in the decedent study included non-local residence, hematologic and non-metastatic solid tumor malignancies, malignancy diagnosed within 2 months, and elective admission to surgical or pediatric services. Having a palliative care consultation on admission was associated with dying in the hospital without ICU services. In the cohort of patients with high risk of in-hospital mortality, patients who went to the ICU were more likely to be younger, male, with newly diagnosed non-metastatic solid tumor or hematologic malignancy, and admitted from the emergency center to one of the surgical services. A palliative care consultation on admission was associated with a decreased likelihood of having an ICU stay. There were no differences in ethnicity, marital status, comorbidities, or insurance status between patients who did and did not utilize ICU services. Inpatient mortality probability models developed for the general population are inadequate in predicting in-hospital mortality for patients with cancer. The following characteristics that differed between the decedent study and high-risk cohort study can be considered in future research to predict risk of in-hospital mortality for patients with cancer: ethnicity, type and stage of malignancy, time since diagnosis, and having advance directives. Identifying those at risk can precipitate discussions in advance to ensure care remains appropriate and in accordance with the wishes of the patient and family.^

Ikaite of sediment cores from the Zaire deep-sea fan

Most concentration profiles of sulfate in continental margin sediments show constant or continuously increasing gradients from the benthic boundary layer down to the deep sulfate reduction zone. However, a very marked change in this gradient has been observed several meters below the surface at many locations, which has been attributed to anoxic sulfide oxidation or to non-local transport mechanisms of pore waters. The subject of this study is to investigate whether this feature could be better explained by non-steady state conditions in the pore-water system. To this end, data are presented from two gravity cores recovered from the Zaire deep-sea fan. The sediments at this location can be subdivided into two sections. The upper layer, about 10 m thick, consists of stratified pelagic deposits representing a period of continuous sedimentation over the last 190 kyr. It is underlain by a turbidite sequence measuring several meters in thickness, which contains large crystals of authigenic calcium carbonate (ikaite: CaCO3·6H2O). Ikaite delta13C values are indicative of a methane carbon contribution to the CO2 pool. Radiocarbon ages of these minerals, as well as of the adjacent bulk sediments, provide strong evidence that the pelagic sediments have overthrust the lower section as a coherent block. Therefore, the emplacement of a relatively undisturbed sediment package is postulated. Pore-water profiles show the depth of the sulfate-methane transition zone within the turbiditic sediments. By the adaptation of a simple transport-reaction model, it is shown that the change in the geochemical environmental conditions, resulting from this slide emplacement, and the development towards a new steady state are fully sufficient to explain all features related to the pore-water profiles, particularly, [SO4]2- and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). The model shows that the downslope transport took place about 300 yr ago.

Lead 210 concentrations in sediments of the Arabian Sea

In order to evaluate bioturbation in abyssal Arabian-Sea sediments of the Indus fan profiles of 210Pb (half-life: 22.3 yr) and 234Th (half-life: 24.1 d) were measured in cores collected during September and October 1995 and April 1997, respectively. The density and composition of epibenthic megafauna and lebensspuren were determined in vertical seafloor photographs during April 1997. Mean eddy-diffusive mixing coefficients according to the distribution of excess 210Pb ( 210Pb-DB) were 0.072±0.028, 0.068±0.055, 0.373±0.119, 0.037±0.009 and 0.079±0.119 cm**2 yr**-1 in the northern, western, central, eastern and southern abyssal Arabian sea, respectively. Mean eddy-diffusive mixing coefficients according to the distribution of excess 234Th (234Th-DB) were 0.53, 1.64 and 0.47 cm**2 yr**-1 in the northern, western and central abyssal Arabian Sea, respectively. Mobile epibenthic megafauna at the western, northern, central and southern study sites were dominated by ophiuroids, holothurians, ophiuroids and natant decapods (the respective densities were 100, 82, 29 and 6 individuals 1000 m**-2). The northern study site was characterized by a high abundance of spoke traces and fecal casts. The central site showed spoke traces and many tracks. The southern site displayed the highest abundance of spoke traces, whereas at the western site hardly any lebensspuren were observed. There is evidence for at least two functional endmember communities in the Arabian Sea. In the northwestern Arabian Sea (WAST) vertical particle displacement seems to be dominated by macrofauna and primarily eddy-diffusive. In the southern Arabian Sea (SAST) non-local and 'incidental' mixing due to spoke-trace producers might become more important and superimpose reduced eddy-diffusive mixing. With respect to biological data CAST is an intermediate location. Given the biological data, average 210Pb-DB is higher and decimeter-scale variability of 210Pb-DB smaller at CAST than expected. These findings indicate that in a mixture of both endmember communities the organisms may interact in way that increases values of biodiffusivity, as reflected by 210Pb-DB, and reduces decimeter-scale 210Pb-DB heterogeneity in comparison to the simple sum of the isolated effects of the endmembers. For time scales <100 years there was no evidence for a relationship between food supply (POC flux) and bioturbation intensity, as reflected by 210Pb-DB and 234Th-DB. Bioturbation intensity should be controlled primarily by the composition of the benthic fauna, its specific adaptation to the environmental setting, and the abundance of each species of the benthic community. Food supply can have only an indirect influence on bioturbation intensity. In certain parts of the ocean the a priori overall positive relationship between POC flux and biodiffusivity might include restricted intervals displaying no or even negative relations.

Biogenic silica and silicic acid benthic fluxes of a North-eastern Atlantic Abyssal Locality

Within the framework of the EU-funded BENGAL programme, the effects of seasonality on biogenic silica early diagenesis have been studied at the Porcupine Abyssal Plain (PAP), an abyssal locality located in the northeast Atlantic Ocean. Nine cruises were carried out between August 1996 and August 1998. Silicic acid (DSi) increased downward from 46.2 to 213 µM (mean of 27 profiles). Biogenic silica (BSi) decreased from ca. 2% near the sediment-water interface to <1% at depth. Benthic silicic acid fluxes as measured from benthic chambers were close to those estimated from non-linear DSi porewater gradients. Some 90% of the dissolution occurred within the top 5.5 cm of the sediment column, rather than at the sediment-water interface and the annual DSi efflux was close to 0.057 mol Si/m**2/yr. Biogenic silica accumulation was close to 0.008 mol Si/m**2/yr and the annual opal delivery reconstructed from sedimentary fluxes, assuming steady state, was 0.065 mol Si/m**2/yr. This is in good agreement with the mean annual opal flux determined from sediment trap samples, averaged over the last decade (0.062 mol Si/m**2/yr). Thus ca. 12% of the opal flux delivered to the seafloor get preserved in the sediments. A simple comparison between the sedimentation rate and the dissolution rate in the uppermost 5.5 cm of the sediment column suggests that there should be no accumulation of opal in PAP sediments. However, by combining the BENGAL high sampling frequency with our experimental results on BSi dissolution, we conclude that non-steady state processes associated with the seasonal deposition of fresh biogenic particles may well play a fundamental role in the preservation of BSi in these sediments. This comes about though the way seasonal variability affects the quality of the biogenic matter reaching the seafloor. Hence it influences the intrinsic dissolution properties of the opal at the seafloor and also the part played by non-local mixing events by ensuring the rapid transport of BSi particles deep into the sediment to where saturation is reached.

Mobilities, Entanglements, Transformations. Outline of a Research Project on Pottery Practices in Neolithic Wetland Sites of the Swiss Plateau

A large number of later Neolithic sites (3900–3500BC) in Switzerland, Southern Germany and Eastern France offer outstandingly well preserved archaeological materials from cultural layers. Due to the wide use of dendrochronology, settlement remains and artefact assemblages can now be placed into a precise and fixed chronological framework, thus presenting a unique case within prehistoric archaeology. In earlier research, chronological and regional units were constructed on the basis of pottery. These spacial and temporal units of typical pottery sets were understood as Neolithic cultures, as culturally more or less homogenous entities connected with (ethnic) identities. Today, with a larger data corpus of excavated settlements at hand, we can begin to understand that this period of the past was in fact characterised by a multitude of cultural entanglements and transformations. This is indicated by the occurrence of local and non-local pottery styles in one and the same settlement: for example typically local Cortaillod pottery is found together with NMB-styled pottery in settlements at Lake Neuchâtel or Michelsberg pottery is regularly occurring in settlements at Lake Constance where Pfyn pottery style is the typical local one. These and many more examples show that there must have been complex entanglements of social ties expanding between Eastern France, Southern Germany and the Swiss Plateau. Given these circumstances the former notions of Neolithic culture should be critically revised. Therefore, in late 2014, the Prehistoric Archaeology Department at the Archaeological Institute of University of Berne started a four-year research project funded by Swiss National Science Foundation in late 2014: ‘Mobilities, Entanglements and Transformations in Neolithic Societies of the Swiss Plateau (3900-3500 BC)’. It’s objective is to address the topic sketched above by adopting a mixed methods research (MMR)-design combining qualitative and quantitative approaches from archaeology and archaeometry. The approach is theoretically based on Pierre Bourdieu’s reflexive sociology and his concept of habitus but includes further concepts of practice theories. By shifting the focus to the movement of people, ideas and things – to pottery production practices in contexts of mobility – a deeper understanding of the transformative capacities of encounters can be achieved. This opens the path for new insights of Neolithic societies including social, cultural and economic dynamics that were underestimated in former research.

Optimized edge appearance probability for cooperative localization based on tree-reweighted nonparametric belief propagation

Nonparametric belief propagation (NBP) is a well-known particle-based method for distributed inference in wireless networks. NBP has a large number of applications, including cooperative localization. However, in loopy networks NBP suffers from similar problems as standard BP, such as over-confident beliefs and possible nonconvergence. Tree-reweighted NBP (TRW-NBP) can mitigate these problems, but does not easily lead to a distributed implementation due to the non-local nature of the required so-called edge appearance probabilities. In this paper, we propose a variation of TRWNBP, suitable for cooperative localization in wireless networks. Our algorithm uses a fixed edge appearance probability for every edge, and can outperform standard NBP in dense wireless networks.

Discernment of bee pollen loads using computer vision and one-class classification techniques

In this paper, we propose a system for authenticating local bee pollen against fraudulent samples using image processing and classification techniques. Our system is based on the colour properties of bee pollen loads and the use of one-class classifiers to reject unknown pollen samples. The latter classification techniques allow us to tackle the major difficulty of the problem, the existence of many possible fraudulent pollen types. Also presented is a multi-classifier model with an ambiguity discovery process to fuse the output of the one-class classifiers. The method is validated by authenticating Spanish bee pollen types, the overall accuracy of the final system of being 94%. Therefore, the system is able to rapidly reject the non-local pollen samples with inexpensive hardware and without the need to send the product to the laboratory.

Analysis of the influence of the plasma thermodynamic regime in the spectrally resolved and mean radiative opacity calculations of carbon plasmas in a wide range of density and temperature

In this work the spectrally resolved, multigroup and mean radiative opacities of carbon plasmas are calculated for a wide range of plasma conditions which cover situations where corona, local thermodynamic and non-local thermodynamic equilibrium regimes are found. An analysis of the influence of the thermodynamic regime on these magnitudes is also carried out by means of comparisons of the results obtained from collisional-radiative, corona or Saha–Boltzmann equations. All the calculations presented in this work were performed using ABAKO/RAPCAL code.

Asymptotic stability of a mathematical model of cell population

We consider a simplified system of a growing colony of cells described as a free boundary problem. The system consists of two hyperbolic equations of first order coupled to an ODE to describe the behavior of the boundary. The system for cell populations includes non-local terms of integral type in the coefficients. By introducing a comparison with solutions of an ODE's system, we show that there exists a unique homogeneous steady state which is globally asymptotically stable for a range of parameters under the assumption of radially symmetric initial data.

On a mathematical model of tumor growth based on cancer stem cells

We consider a simple mathematical model of tumor growth based on cancer stem cells. The model consists of four hyperbolic equations of first order to describe the evolution of different subpopulations of cells: cancer stem cells, progenitor cells, differentiated cells and dead cells. A fifth equation is introduced to model the evolution of the moving boundary. The system includes non-local terms of integral type in the coefficients. Under some restrictions in the parameters we show that there exists a unique homogeneous steady state which is stable.

A gradient-enhanced large-deformation continuum damage model for fibre-reinforced materials

A non-local gradient-based damage formulation within a geometrically non-linear setting is presented. The hyperelastic constitutive response at local material point level is governed by a strain energy which is additively composed of an isotropic matrix and of an anisotropic fibre-reinforced material, respectively. The inelastic constitutive response is governed by a scalar [1–d]-type damage formulation, where only the anisotropic elastic part is assumed to be affected by the damage. Following the concept in Dimitrijević and Hackl [28], the local free energy function is enhanced by a gradient-term. This term essentially contains the gradient of the non-local damage variable which, itself, is introduced as an additional independent variable. In order to guarantee the equivalence between the local and non-local damage variable, a penalisation term is incorporated within the free energy function. Based on the principle of minimum total potential energy, a coupled system of Euler–Lagrange equations, i.e., the balance of linear momentum and the balance of the non-local damage field, is obtained and solved in weak form. The resulting coupled, highly non-linear system of equations is symmetric and can conveniently be solved by a standard incremental-iterative Newton–Raphson-type solution scheme. Several three-dimensional displacement- and force-driven boundary value problems—partially motivated by biomechanical application—highlight the mesh-objective characteristics and constitutive properties of the model and illustratively underline the capabilities of the formulation proposed