Remaining useful life prediction using elliptical basis function network and Markov Chain

This paper presents a novel method for remaining useful life prediction using the Elliptical Basis Function (EBF) network and a Markov chain. The EBF structure is trained by a modified Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm in order to take into account the missing covariate set. No explicit extrapolation is needed for internal covariates while a Markov chain is constructed to represent the evolution of external covariates in the study. The estimated external and the unknown internal covariates constitute an incomplete covariate set which are then used and analyzed by the EBF network to provide survival information of the asset. It is shown in the case study that the method slightly underestimates the remaining useful life of an asset which is a desirable result for early maintenance decision and resource planning.

Implementation of an embedded sensor network for the coordination of Slocum gliders for coastal monitoring and observation

Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) are revolutionizing oceanography through their versatility, autonomy and endurance. However, they are still an underutilized technology. For coastal operations, the ability to track a certain feature is of interest to ocean scientists. Adaptive and predictive path planning requires frequent communication with significant data transfer. Currently, most AUVs rely on satellite phones as their primary communication. This communication protocol is expensive and slow. To reduce communication costs and provide adequate data transfer rates, we present a hardware modification along with a software system that provides an alternative robust disruption- tolerant communications framework enabling cost-effective glider operation in coastal regions. The framework is specifically designed to address multi-sensor deployments. We provide a system overview and present testing and coverage data for the network. Additionally, we include an application of ocean-model driven trajectory design, which can benefit from the use of this network and communication system. Simulation and implementation results are presented for single and multiple vehicle deployments. The presented combination of infrastructure, software development and deployment experience brings us closer to the goal of providing a reliable and cost-effective data transfer framework to enable real-time, optimal trajectory design, based on ocean model predictions, to gather in situ measurements of interesting and evolving ocean features and phenomena.

Group maintenance scheduling : a case study for a pipeline network

This paper presents a group maintenance scheduling case study for a water distributed network. This water pipeline network presents the challenge of maintaining aging pipelines with the associated increases in annual maintenance costs. The case study focuses on developing an effective maintenance plan for the water utility. Current replacement planning is difficult as it needs to balance the replacement needs under limited budgets. A Maintenance Grouping Optimization (MGO) model based on a modified genetic algorithm was utilized to develop an optimum group maintenance schedule over a 20-year cycle. The adjacent geographical distribution of pipelines was used as a grouping criterion to control the searching space of the MGO model through a Judgment Matrix. Based on the optimum group maintenance schedule, the total cost was effectively reduced compared with the schedules without grouping maintenance jobs. This optimum result can be used as a guidance to optimize the current maintenance plan for the water utility.

Issues and concerns of microscopic calibration process at different network levels : case study of pacific motorway

Calibration process in micro-simulation is an extremely complicated phenomenon. The difficulties are more prevalent if the process encompasses fitting aggregate and disaggregate parameters e.g. travel time and headway. The current practice in calibration is more at aggregate level, for example travel time comparison. Such practices are popular to assess network performance. Though these applications are significant there is another stream of micro-simulated calibration, at disaggregate level. This study will focus on such micro-calibration exercise-key to better comprehend motorway traffic risk level, management of variable speed limit (VSL) and ramp metering (RM) techniques. Selected section of Pacific Motorway in Brisbane will be used as a case study. The discussion will primarily incorporate the critical issues encountered during parameter adjustment exercise (e.g. vehicular, driving behaviour) with reference to key traffic performance indicators like speed, land distribution and headway; at specific motorway points. The endeavour is to highlight the utility and implications of such disaggregate level simulation for improved traffic prediction studies. The aspects of calibrating for points in comparison to that for whole of the network will also be briefly addressed to examine the critical issues such as the suitability of local calibration at global scale. The paper will be of interest to transport professionals in Australia/New Zealand where micro-simulation in particular at point level, is still comparatively a less explored territory in motorway management.

Property, planning and purpose : legal concerns facing broadband rollout in Australia

The Australian government, and opposition, are committed to facilitating high-speed broadband provision. In April 2009 the (then) Labor government announced a proposal to facilitate provision by mandating “…the use of fibre optic infrastructure … in greenfield estates ….” Separately, the installation of (usually overhead) cables commenced in select brownfield areas throughout Australia. In the lead up to the 2010 federal election, the broadband policy focus of the (then) federal opposition was to enabling private investment rather than direct investment by government itself. High-speed broadband is essential for Australia’s economic future. Whether implementation is undertaken by government, government owned corporations or private investors, will impact on the processes to be followed. Who does what, also will determine the rights available to land owners. The next stage, of necessity, will involve the establishment of procedures to require the retrofitting of existing urban environments. This clearly will have major property, property rights and valuation impacts. As Horan (2000) observed “…preserving... unique characteristics … of…regions requires a compromise between economic ambitions and social, cultural, and environmental values”. The uncertainty following the federal election, and the influence of independants with individual agendas; presents unique challenges for broadband implementation. This paper seeks to identify the processes to be followed by various potential broadband investors as they work to establish a ubiquitous network. It overviews current legislative regimes and examines concerns raised by stakeholders in various government reviews. It concludes by plotting a clear way forward to the future, with particular regard to property rights and usage.

Facilitating first year students’ engagement with planning education : utilising student affinity for technology to increase cohort cohesion and decrease attrition

First year students overwhelmingly indicate that a strong interest in a field of study prompts them to enrol in university (McInnis et al 2000), yet over a quarter indicate that they have seriously considered dropping out of studies during their first year, with boredom most frequently cited by those domestic students who do depart before graduation (Coates and Ransom 2011). While it may be comforting to write off such withdrawals to the presumed apathy of youth, student “disquiet (in) their first year on campus may be a result of courses and institutions that do not match their needs and objectives, rather than any uncertainty or lack of purpose on their part” (James et al 1999). Voting with their mouse clicks, The current research investigate two conceptualized types of student participation in online discussion forums to increase understanding of student affinity for technology and its potential for fostering social network development amongst first year students.

Optimal planning of electric-vehicle charging stations in distribution systems

With the progressive exhaustion of fossil energy and the enhanced awareness of environmental protection, more attention is being paid to electric vehicles (EVs). Inappropriate siting and sizing of EV charging stations could have negative effects on the development of EVs, the layout of the city traffic network, and the convenience of EVs' drivers, and lead to an increase in network losses and a degradation in voltage profiles at some nodes. Given this background, the optimal sites of EV charging stations are first identified by a two-step screening method with environmental factors and service radius of EV charging stations considered. Then, a mathematical model for the optimal sizing of EV charging stations is developed with the minimization of total cost associated with EV charging stations to be planned as the objective function and solved by a modified primal-dual interior point algorithm (MPDIPA). Finally, simulation results of the IEEE 123-node test feeder have demonstrated that the developed model and method cannot only attain the reasonable planning scheme of EV charging stations, but also reduce the network loss and improve the voltage profile.

Planning for the impact of distributed solar energy on the grid

The behaviour of single installations of solar energy systems is well understood; however, what happens at an aggregated location, such as a distribution substation, when output of groups of installations cumulate is not so well understood. This paper considers groups of installations attached to distributions substations on which the load is primarily commercial and industrial. Agent-based modelling has been used to model the physical electrical distribution system and the behaviour of equipment outputs towards the consumer end of the network. The paper reports the approach used to simulate both the electricity consumption of groups of consumers and the output of solar systems subject to weather variability with the inclusion of cloud data from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). The data sets currently used are for Townsville, North Queensland. The initial characteristics that indicate whether solar installations are cost effective from an electricity distribution perspective are discussed.

Applied sub-transmission & distribution reliability assessment of SEQEB network in Queensland

In this paper a combined subtransmission and distribution reliability analysis of SEQEB’s outer suburban network is presented. The reliability analysis was carried out with a commercial software package which evaluates both energy and customer indices. Various reinforcement options were investigated to ascertain the impact they have on the reliability of supply seen by the customers. The customer and energy indices produced by the combined subtransmission and distribution reliability studies contributed to optimise capital expenditure to the most effective areas of the network.

Optimal distribution network reinforcement considering load growth, line loss, and reliability

In this paper, a new comprehensive planning methodology is proposed for implementing distribution network reinforcement. The load growth, voltage profile, distribution line loss, and reliability are considered in this procedure. A time-segmentation technique is employed to reduce the computational load. Options considered range from supporting the load growth using the traditional approach of upgrading the conventional equipment in the distribution network, through to the use of dispatchable distributed generators (DDG). The objective function is composed of the construction cost, loss cost and reliability cost. As constraints, the bus voltages and the feeder currents should be maintained within the standard level. The DDG output power should not be less than a ratio of its rated power because of efficiency. A hybrid optimization method, called modified discrete particle swarm optimization, is employed to solve this nonlinear and discrete optimization problem. A comparison is performed between the optimized solution based on planning of capacitors along with tap-changing transformer and line upgrading and when DDGs are included in the optimization.

Extending and validating the is-impact model in Saudi Arabia : accounting for computer network quality

Organizations from every industry sector seek to enhance their business performance and competitiveness through the deployment of contemporary information systems (IS), such as Enterprise Systems (ERP). Investments in ERP are complex and costly, attracting scrutiny and pressure to justify their cost. Thus, IS researchers highlight the need for systematic evaluation of information system success, or impact, which has resulted in the introduction of varied models for evaluating information systems. One of these systematic measurement approaches is the IS-Impact Model introduced by a team of researchers at Queensland University of technology (QUT) (Gable, Sedera, & Chan, 2008). The IS-Impact Model is conceptualized as a formative, multidimensional index that consists of four dimensions. Gable et al. (2008) define IS-Impact as "a measure at a point in time, of the stream of net benefits from the IS, to date and anticipated, as perceived by all key-user-groups" (p.381). The IT Evaluation Research Program (ITE-Program) at QUT has grown the IS-Impact Research Track with the central goal of conducting further studies to enhance and extend the IS-Impact Model. The overall goal of the IS-Impact research track at QUT is "to develop the most widely employed model for benchmarking information systems in organizations for the joint benefit of both research and practice" (Gable, 2009). In order to achieve that, the IS-Impact research track advocates programmatic research having the principles of tenacity, holism, and generalizability through extension research strategies. This study was conducted within the IS-Impact Research Track, to further generalize the IS-Impact Model by extending it to the Saudi Arabian context. According to Hofsted (2012), the national culture of Saudi Arabia is significantly different from the Australian national culture making the Saudi Arabian culture an interesting context for testing the external validity of the IS-Impact Model. The study re-visits the IS-Impact Model from the ground up. Rather than assume the existing instrument is valid in the new context, or simply assess its validity through quantitative data collection, the study takes a qualitative, inductive approach to re-assessing the necessity and completeness of existing dimensions and measures. This is done in two phases: Exploratory Phase and Confirmatory Phase. The exploratory phase addresses the first research question of the study "Is the IS-Impact Model complete and able to capture the impact of information systems in Saudi Arabian Organization?". The content analysis, used to analyze the Identification Survey data, indicated that 2 of the 37 measures of the IS-Impact Model are not applicable for the Saudi Arabian Context. Moreover, no new measures or dimensions were identified, evidencing the completeness and content validity of the IS-Impact Model. In addition, the Identification Survey data suggested several concepts related to IS-Impact, the most prominent of which was "Computer Network Quality" (CNQ). The literature supported the existence of a theoretical link between IS-Impact and CNQ (CNQ is viewed as an antecedent of IS-Impact). With the primary goal of validating the IS-Impact model within its extended nomological network, CNQ was introduced to the research model. The Confirmatory Phase addresses the second research question of the study "Is the Extended IS-Impact Model Valid as a Hierarchical Multidimensional Formative Measurement Model?". The objective of the Confirmatory Phase was to test the validity of IS-Impact Model and CNQ Model. To achieve that, IS-Impact, CNQ, and IS-Satisfaction were operationalized in a survey instrument, and then the research model was assessed by employing the Partial Least Squares (PLS) approach. The CNQ model was validated as a formative model. Similarly, the IS-Impact Model was validated as a hierarchical multidimensional formative construct. However, the analysis indicated that one of the IS-Impact Model indicators was insignificant and can be removed from the model. Thus, the resulting Extended IS-Impact Model consists of 4 dimensions and 34 measures. Finally, the structural model was also assessed against two aspects: explanatory and predictive power. The analysis revealed that the path coefficient between CNQ and IS-Impact is significant with t-value= (4.826) and relatively strong with â = (0.426) with CNQ explaining 18% of the variance in IS-Impact. These results supported the hypothesis that CNQ is antecedent of IS-Impact. The study demonstrates that the quality of Computer Network affects the quality of the Enterprise System (ERP) and consequently the impacts of the system. Therefore, practitioners should pay attention to the Computer Network quality. Similarly, the path coefficient between IS-Impact and IS-Satisfaction was significant t-value = (17.79) and strong â = (0.744), with IS-Impact alone explaining 55% of the variance in Satisfaction, consistent with results of the original IS-Impact study (Gable et al., 2008). The research contributions include: (a) supporting the completeness and validity of IS-Impact Model as a Hierarchical Multi-dimensional Formative Measurement Model in the Saudi Arabian context, (b) operationalizing Computer Network Quality as conceptualized in the ITU-T Recommendation E.800 (ITU-T, 1993), (c) validating CNQ as a formative measurement model and as an antecedent of IS Impact, and (d) conceptualizing and validating IS-Satisfaction as a reflective measurement model and as an immediate consequence of IS Impact. The CNQ model provides a framework to perceptually measure Computer Network Quality from multiple perspectives. The CNQ model features an easy-to-understand, easy-to-use, and economical survey instrument.

Crisis response planning in tunnel and road networks

Critical road infrastructure (such as tunnels and overpasses) is of major significance to society and constitutes major components of interdependent, ‘systems and networks’. Failure in critical components of these wide area infrastructure systems can often result in cascading disturbances with secondary and tertiary impacts - some of which may become initiating sources of failure in their own right, triggering further systems failures across wider networks. Perrow1) considered the impact of our increasing use of technology in high-risk fields, analysing the implications on everyday life and argued that designers of these types of infrastructure systems cannot predict every possible failure scenario nor create perfect contingency plans for operators. Challenges exist for transport system operators in the conceptualisation and implementation of response and subsequent recovery planning for significant events. Disturbances can vary from reduced traffic flow causing traffic congestion throughout the local road network(s) and subsequent possible loss of income to businesses and industry to a major incident causing loss of life or complete loss of an asset. Many organisations and institutions, despite increasing recognition of the effects of crisis events, are not adequately prepared to manage crises2). It is argued that operators of land transport infrastructure are in a similar category of readiness given the recent instances of failures in road tunnels. These unexpected infrastructure failures, and their ultimately identified causes, suggest there is significant room for improvement. As a result, risk profiles for road transport systems are often complex due to the human behaviours and the inter-mix of technical and organisational components and the managerial coverage needed for the socio-technical components and the physical infrastructure. In this sense, the span of managerial oversight may require new approaches to asset management that combines the notion of risk and continuity management. This paper examines challenges in the planning of response and recovery practices of owner/operators of transport systems (above and below ground) in Australia covering: • Ageing or established infrastructure; and • New-build infrastructure. With reference to relevant international contexts this paper seeks to suggest options for enhancing the planning and practice for crisis response in these transport networks and as a result support the resilience of Critical Infrastructure.

Planning for sustainability of non motorised public transport in a developing city

Most large cities around the world are undergoing rapid transport sector development to cater for increased urbanization. Subsequently the issues of mobility, access equity, congestion, operational safety and above all environmental sustainability are becoming increasingly crucial in transport planning and policy making. The popular response in addressing these issues has been demand management, through improvement of motorised public transport (MPT) modes (bus, train, tram) and non-motorized transport (NMT) modes (walk, bicycle); improved fuel technology. Relatively little attention has however been given to another readily available and highly sustainable component of the urban transport system, non-motorized public transport (NMPT) such as the pedicab that operates on a commercial basis and serves as an NMT taxi; and has long standing history in many Asian cities; relatively stable in existence in Latin America; and reemerging and expanding in Europe, North America and Australia. Consensus at policy level on the apparent benefits, costs and management approach for NMPT integration has often been a major transport planning problem. Within this context, this research attempts to provide a more complete analysis of the current existence rationale and possible future, or otherwise, of NMPT as a regular public transport system. The analytical process is divided into three major stages. Stage 1 reviews the status and role condition of NMPT as regular public transport on a global scale- in developing cities and developed cities. The review establishes the strong ongoing and future potential role of NMPT in major developing cities. Stage 2 narrows down the status review to a case study city of a developing country in order to facilitate deeper role review and status analysis of the mode. Dhaka, capital city of Bangladesh, has been chosen due to its magnitude of NMPT presence. The review and analysis reveals the multisectoral and dominant role of NMPT in catering for the travel need of Dhaka transport users. The review also indicates ad-hoc, disintegrated policy planning in management of NMPT and the need for a planning framework to facilitate balanced integration between NMPT and MT in future. Stage 3 develops an integrated, multimodal planning framework (IMPF), based on a four-step planning process. This includes defining the purpose and scope of the planning exercise, determining current deficiencies and preferred characteristics for the proposed IMPF, selection of suitable techniques to address the deficiencies and needs of the transport network while laying out the IMPF and finally, development of a delivery plan for the IMPF based on a selected layout technique and integration approach. The output of the exercise is a planning instrument (decision tool) that can be used to assign a road hierarchy in order to allocate appropriate traffic to appropriate network type, particularly to facilitate the operational balance between MT and NMT. The instrument is based on a partial restriction approach of motorised transport (MT) and NMT, structured on the notion of functional hierarchy approach, and distributes/prioritises MT and NMT such that functional needs of the network category is best complemented. The planning instrument based on these processes and principles offers a six-level road hierarchy with a different composition of network-governing attributes and modal priority, for the current Dhaka transport network, in order to facilitate efficient integration of NMT with MT. A case study application of the instrument on a small transport network of Dhaka also demonstrates the utility, flexibility and adoptability of the instrument in logically allocating corridors with particular positions in the road hierarchy paradigm. Although the tool is useful in enabling balanced distribution of NMPT with MT at different network levels, further investigation is required with reference to detailed modal variations, scales and locations of a network to further generalise the framework application.

Building Healthy Communities : GP Network, Medicare Local and Primary Health Care in the Wheatbelt Region of Western Australia

• Government reports consistently recognise the importance of Primary Health Care to an efficient health system. Barriers identified in Australia’s Primary Health Care include workforce pressures, increase rate of chronic disease, and equitable access to Primary Health Care services. • General Practitioners (GPs) are the key to the successful delivery of Primary Health Care especially in rural and remote regions such as the Wheatbelt region in Western Australia (WA). • The Wheatbelt region of WA is vast: some 72,500 residents spread across 150,000km2 in 43 Local Government Authorities catchments. Majority of the Wheatbelt residents live in small towns. There is a higher reported rates of chronic disease, more at risk of chronic diseases and less utilisation of Primary Health Care services in this region. • General practice patients in the Wheatbelt are among those most in need of Primary Health Care services. • Wheatbelt GP Network (the “Network”) was established in 1998. It is a key health service delivery stakeholder in the Wheatbelt. • The Network has responded to the health needs of the community by creating a mobile Allied Health Team that works closely with GPs and is adaptive to ensure priority needs are met. • The Medicare Local model introduced by the Australian Government in 2011 aimed to improve the delivery of Primary Health Care services by improved health planning and coordinating service delivery. • Little if any recognition has been given to the outstanding work that many Divisions of General Practice have done in improving the delivery of Primary Health Care services such as the Network. • The Network has continued to support GPs and general practices and created a complementary system that integrated general practice with the work of an Allied Health Team. Its program mix is extensive. • The Network has consistently delivered on-required contract outputs and has a fifteen (15) years history of operating successfully in a large geographical area comprising in the main smaller communities that cannot support the traditional health services model. • The complexity of supporting International Medical Graduates in the region requires special attention. • The introduction of the Medicare Local in the South West of WA and their intention to take over the delivery of health services, thus effectively shutting the Network will have catastrophic consequences and cannot be supported economically. • The Network proposes to create a new model, built on its past work that increases the delivery of Primary Health Care services through its current Allied Health Team. • The proposal uses the Wheatbelt GP Super Clinic currently under construction in Northam, part of the Network and funded by the Australian Government is a key to the proposed new model. • Wheatbelt GP Super Clinic is different from existing models of GP Super Clinics around Australia which focus predominately on co-location of services. Wheatbelt GP Super Clinic utilises a hub and spoke model of service outreach to small rural towns to ensure equitable Primary Health Care coverage and continuum of care in a financially responsible and viable manner. In particular, the Wheatbelt GP Super Clinic recognises the importance of Allied Health Professionals and will involve them in a collaborative model with rural general practice. • The proposed model advocated by the Network aims to substitute the South West WA Medicare Local direct service delivery proposed for the Wheatbelt. The Network’s proposed model is to expand on the current hub and spoke model of Primary Health Care delivery to otherwise small unviable Wheatbelt towns. A flexible and adaptive skill mix of Allied Health Professionals, Nurse Practitioners and GPs ensure equitable access to service. Expanded scope of practices are utilised to reduce duplication of service and concentration of services in major towns. This involves a partnership approach. • If the proposed model not funded, the Network and the Wheatbelt region will stand to lose 16 Allied Health Professionals and defeats the purpose of Australian Government current funding for the construction of the Wheatbelt GP Super Clinic. • The Network has considered how its model can best be funded. It proposes a re-allocation of funds made available to the South West WA Medicare Local. • This submission argues that the proposal for the South West WA Medicare Local to take over the service delivery of Primary Health Care services in the Wheatbelt makes no economic sense when an existing agency (the Network) has the infrastructure in place, is experienced in working in this geographical area that has special needs and is capable to expand its programs to meet demand.

A rural health education, training and research network

The purpose of the Rural Health Education, Training and Research Network is to support the education and training of rural health practitioners and research in rural health through the optimum use of appropriate information and communication technologies to link and inform all individuals and organisation involved in the teaching, planning and delivery of health care in rural and remote Queensland. The health care of people in rural areas has the potential to be enhanced, through providing the rural and remote health professionals in Queensland with the same access to educational and training opportunities as their metropolitan colleagues. This consultative, coordinated approach should be cost-effective through both increasing awareness and utilisation of existing and developing networks, and through more efficient and rational use of both the basic and sophisticated technologies which support them. Technological hardware, expertise and infrastructure are already in place in Queensland to support a Rural Health Education, Training and Research Network, but are not being used to their potential, more often due to a lack of awareness of their existence and utility than to their perceived costs. Development of the network has commenced through seeding funds provided by Queensland Health. Future expansion will ensure access by health professionals to existing networks within Queensland. This paper explores the issues and implications of a network for rural health professionals in Queensland and potentially throughout Australia, with a specific focus on the implications for rural and isolated health professional.