Employment rate impacts of charging the Heavy Good Vehicle corridor (Madrid-Sevilla) across Spanish regions: a Random Utility Based Multiregional Input-Output approach

The implementation of a charging policy for heavy goods vehicles in European Union (EU) member countries has been imposed to reflect costs of construction and maintenance of infrastructure as well as externalities such as congestion, accidents and environmental impact. In this context, EU countries approved the Eurovignette directive (1999/62/EC) and its amending directive (2006 /38/EC) which established a legal framework to regulate the system of tolls. Even if that regulation seek s to increase the efficien cy of freight, it will trigger direct and indirect effects on Spain’s regional economies by increasing transport costs. This paper presents the development of a multiregional Input-Output methodology (MRIO) with elastic trade coefficients to predict in terregional trade, using transport attributes integrated in multinomial logit models. This method is highly useful to carry out an ex-ante evaluation of transport policies because it involves road freight transport cost sensitivity, and determine regional distributive and substitution economic effect s of countries like Spain, characterized by socio-demographic and economic attributes, differentiated region by region. It will thus be possible to determine cost-effective strategies, given different policy scenarios. MRIO mode l would then be used to determine the impact on the employment rate of imposing a charge in the Madrid-Sevilla corridor in Spain. This methodology is important for measuring the impact on the employment rate since it is one of the main macroeconomic indicators of Spain’s regional and national economic situation. A previous research developed (DESTINO) using a MRIO method estimated employment impacts of road pricing policy across Spanish regions considering a fuel tax charge (€/liter) in the entire shortest cost path network for freight transport. Actually, it found that the variation in employment is expected to be substantial for some regions, and negligible for others. For example, in this Spanish case study of regional employment has showed reductions between 16.1% (Rioja) and 1.4% (Madrid region). This variation range seems to be related to either the intensity of freight transport in each region or dependency of regions to transport intensive economic sect ors. In fact, regions with freight transport intensive sectors will lose more jobs while regions with a predominantly service economy undergo a fairly insignificant loss of employment. This paper is focused on evaluating a freight transport vehicle-kilometer charge (€/km) in a non-tolled motorway corridor (A-4) between Madrid-Sevilla (517 Km.). The consequences of the road pricing policy implementation show s that the employment reductions are not as high as the diminution stated in the previous research because this corridor does not affect the whole freight transport system of Spain.

Cycling habits and other psychological variables affecting commuting by bicycle in Madrid, Spain

To develop effective cycling policies, decision makers and administrators should know the factors influencing the use of the bicycle for daily mobility. Traditional discrete choice models tend to be based on variables such as time and cost, which do not sufficiently explain the choice of the bicycle as a mode of transportation. Because psychological factors have been identified as particularly influential in the decision to commute by bicycle, this paper examines the perceptions of cycling factors and their influence on commuting by bicycle. Perceptions are measured by attitudes, other psychological variables, and habits. Statistical differences in the variables are established in relation to the choice of commuting mode and bicycle experience (commuter, sport-leisure, no use). Doing so enables the authors to identify the main barriers to commuting by bicycle and to make recommendations for cycling policies. Two underlying structures (factors) of the attitudinal variables are identified: direct benefits and long-term benefits. Three other factors are related to variables of difficulty: physical conditions, external facilities, and individual capacities. The effect of attitudes and other psychological variables on people's decision to cycle to work-place of study is tested by using a logit model. In the case study of Madrid, Spain, the decision to cycle to work-place of study is heavily influenced by cycling habits (for noncommuting trips). Because bicycle commuting is not common, attitudes and other psychological variables play a less important role in the use of bikes.

Exploring public support for climate change adaptation policies in the Mediterranean region: A case study in Southern Spain.

The understanding of public perception to climate change is an essential factor in the development of adaptation policies. In the Mediterranean, agriculture, as the largest consumer of freshwater, has the highest potential to suffer adverse impacts of climate change. Future water availability predictions, conflicting interests among stakeholders and an increasing social concern about the environment further aggravate the situation. Therefore studying public support for adaptation policies can play a key role in successfully adapting the sector. The study site, approximately 36,000 hectares of rice fields in Seville (Spain), exemplifies an area in the Mediterranean where water needs to be carefully re-allocated in view of the limitations anticipated by climate change scenarios; in particular where conflicts will arise between water for agriculture and water for ‘natural’ ecosystems. This paper proposes an ex-ante evaluation of the societal support for adaptation policies. A survey of 117 respondents was conducted and a Logit model utilized to analyze which predictors positively or negatively affect people's support for adaptation policies. Results suggest that the main barriers to support these policies were economic losses and low climate change concern whereas the primary motivation factor was environmental commitment. Additionally, the main socio-demographic determinants were gender, age, education and family structure. In order to improve societal support for climate change adaptation policies, implementing educational and awareness raising initiatives will be the main challenges for policy makers to overcome.

Cycling habits and other psychological variables affecting commuting by bicycle in city of Madrid

To develop effective cycling policies, decision makers and administrators should know the factors influencing the use of the bicycle for daily mobility. Traditional discrete choice models tend to be based on variables such as time and cost, which do not sufficiently explain the choice of the bicycle as a mode of transportation. Because psychological factors have been identified as particularly influential in the decision to commute by bicycle, this paper examines the perceptions of cycling factors and their influence on commuting by bicycle. Perceptions are measured by attitudes, other psychological variables, and habits. Statistical differences in the variables are established in relation to the choice of commuting mode and bicycle experience (commuter, sport–leisure, no use). Doing so enables the authors to identify the main barriers to commuting by bicycle and to make recommendations for cycling policies. Two underlying structures (factors) of the attitudinal variables are identified: direct benefits and long-term benefits. Three other factors are related to variables of difficulty: physical conditions, external facilities, and individual capacities. The effect of attitudes and other psychological variables on people’s decision to cycle to work–place of study is tested by using a logit model. In the case study of Madrid, Spain, the decision to cycle to work– place of study is heavily influenced by cycling habits (for noncommuting trips). Because bicycle commuting is not common, attitudes and other psychological variables play a less important role in the use of bikes.

Exploring the role of social capital influence variables on travel behaviour

This paper explores the potential role of individual trip characteristics and social capital network variables in the choice of transport mode. A sample of around 100 individuals living or working in one suburb of Madrid (i.e. Las Rosas district of Madrid) participated in a smartphone short panel survey, entering travel data for an entire working week. A Mixed Logit model was estimated with this data to analyze shifts to metro as a consequence of the opening of two new stations in the area. Apart from classical explanatory variables, such as travel time and cost, gender, license and car ownership, the model incorporated two “social capital network” variables: participation in voluntary activities and receiving help for various tasks (i.e. child care, housekeeping, etc.). Both variables improved the capacity of the model to explain transport mode shifts. Further, our results confirm that the shift towards metro was higher in the case of people “helped” and lower for those participating in some voluntary activities.

Railway Rapid Transit timetables with variable and elastic demand.

This paper focuses on the design of railway timetables considering a variable elastic demand profile along a whole design day. Timetabling is the third stage in the classical hierarchical railway planning process. Most of previous works on this topic consider a uniform demand behavior for short planning intervals. In this paper, we propose a MINLP model for designing non-periodic timetables on a railway corridor where demand is dependent on waiting times. In the elastic demand case, long waiting times lead to a loss of passengers, who may select an alternative transportation mode. The mode choice is modeled using two alternative methods. The first one is based on a sigmoid function and can be used in case of absence of information for competitor modes. In the second one, the mode choice probability is obtained using a Logit model that explicitly considers the existence of a main alternative mode. With the purpose of obtaining optimal departure times, in both cases, a minimization of the loss of passengers is used as objective function. Finally, as illustration, the timetabling MINLP model with both mode choice methods is applied to a real case and computational results are shown.

Assessing the passengers’ perception of implemented advanced management measures in bus service

The aim of this investigation is to evaluate the passenger?s perception of some attributes related to quality of bus services, and how this perception changes with the implementation of different measures. Surveys to passengers riding different bus lines were conducted in two scenarios: before the implementation of the measures and after the measures were implemented. The results of the passenger surveys were statistically analysed; then, an ordered logit model was used to analyse the differences between surveys thanks to the implemented measures. Finally, a factor analysis was done to identify the underlying unobserved factors (latent variables) that the respondents perceived

Stochastic choice analysis of tourism destinations

The analysis of tourist destination choice, defined by intra-country administrative units and by product types “coastal/inland and village/city”, permits the characterisation of tourist flow behaviour, which is fundamental for public planning and business management. In this study, we analyse the determinant factors of tourist destination choice, proposing various research hypotheses relative to the impact of destination attributes and the personal characteristics of tourists. The methodology applied estimates Nested and Random Coefficients Multinomial Logit Models, which allow control over possible correlations among different destinations. The empirical application is realised in Spain on a sample of 3,781 individuals and allows us to conclude that prices, distance to the destination and personal motivations are determinants in destination choice.

Modelización de un proceso de elección secuencial en cuatro etapas del consumidor turista

El objetivo de este trabajo consiste en proponer un proceso de decisión secuencial y jerárquico que siguen los turistas vacacionales en cuatro etapas: 1) salir (o no) de vacaciones; 2) elección de un viaje nacional vs. internacional; 3) elección de determinadas áreas geográficas; y 4) elección de la modalidad del viaje -multidestino o de destino fijo- en estas áreas. Este análisis permite examinar las distintas fases que sigue un turista hasta seleccionar una determinada modalidad de viaje en un zona geográfica concreta, así como observar los factores que influyen en cada etapa. La aplicación empírica se realiza sobre una muestra de 3.781 individuos, y estima, mediante procedimientos bayesianos, un Modelo Logit de Coeficientes Aleatorios. Los resultados obtenidos revelan el carácter anidado y no independiente de las decisiones anteriores, lo que confirma el proceso secuencial y jerárquico propuesto.

A new marketing segmentation approach based on marginal individual utilities: applying CRM is not a chimera anymore

In the advent of Customer Relationship Management, a more accurate profile of the consumer is needed. The objective of this paper is to show the usefulness of knowing consumer’s complete utility function through his/her marginal utilities. This approach allows one to form groups of individuals with similar preferences (as traditional segmentation methods do) and to treat them individually (which represents an advance). The empirical application is carried out, on a sample of 2,127 individuals, in the context of tourism, where the customer relationship management philosophy is gaining more and more relevance.

Does the consumer’s variety-seeking behavior condition the willingness to travel further?

The objective of this study is to test the effect of the consumer’s variety-seeking behaviour on the distance the tourist is prepared to travel; that is, his/her willingness to travel further. The empirical application is carried out in Spain in a context with 26 destinations, by applying Mixed Logit Models. The results evidence that the variety-seeking behaviour reduces the dissuasive effect of distance.

The negative effects of failed service recoveries

Research has shown that more than half of attempted recovery efforts fail, producing a ‘double deviation’ effect. Surprisingly, these double deviation effects have received little attention in marketing literature. This paper examines what happens after these critical encounters, which behavior or set of behaviors the customers are prone to follow and how customers’ perceptions of the firm’s recovery efforts influence these behaviors. For the analysis of choice of the type of response (complaining, exit, complaining and exit, and no-switching), we estimate multinomial Logit models with random coefficients (RCL). The results of our study show that magnitude of service failure, explanations, apologies, perceived justice, angry and frustration felt by the customer, and satisfaction with service recovery have a significant effect on customers’ choice of the type of response. Implications from the findings are offered.

Contribution of individual to collective brands

Traditionally, literature estimates the equity of a brand or its extension but it pays little attention to collective brand equity even though collective branding is increasingly used to differentiate the homogenous products of different firms or organizations. We propose an approach that estimates the incremental effect of individual brands (or the contribution of individual brands) on collective brand equity through the various stages of a consumer hierarchical buying choice process in which decisions are nested: “whether to buy”, “what collective brand to buy” and “what individual brand to buy”. This proposal follows the approach of the Random Utility Theory, and it is theoretically argued through the Associative Networks Theory and the cybernetic model of decision making. The empirical analysis carried out in the area of collective brands in Spanish tourism finds a three-stage hierarchical sequence, and estimates the contribution of individual brands to the equity of the collective brands of “Sun, Sea and Sand” and of “World Heritage Cities”.

Proceso cuatrietápico de elección del turista

El objetivo de este trabajo consiste en proponer y testar un proceso de decisión anidado y jerárquico que siguen los turistas vacacionales en cuatro etapas: 1) salir (o no) de vacaciones; 2) elección de un viaje nacional vs. internacional; 3) elección de determinadas áreas geográficas; y 4) elección de la modalidad del viaje –multidestino o de destino fijo– en estas áreas. Este análisis permite examinar las distintas fases que sigue un turista hasta seleccionar una determinada modalidad de viaje en un zona geográfica concreta, así como observar los factores que influyen en cada etapa. La aplicación empírica se realiza sobre una muestra de 3.781 individuos, y estima, mediante procedimientos bayesianos, un Modelo Logit de Coeficientes Aleatorios. Los resultados obtenidos revelan el carácter anidado y no independiente de las decisiones anteriores, lo que confirma el proceso anidado y jerárquico propuesto.

Price sensitivity to tourism activities: looking for determinant factors

The literature contains evidence that there is a marked heterogeneity in price responses to tourism products, leading to a great variety of tourist sensitivities to price. Thus the role price plays is complex, and a particularly challenging aspect of this complexity is that its effect is not unambiguous, thereby negating the idea that the demand for tourism products and tourist activities can always be regarded as demand for ordinary goods. This article identifies and explains, as a novelty for the tourism industry, price sensitivities to tourism activities individual by individual. The operative formalization uses a mixed logit model to estimate the individual sensitivities to price, and then a regression analysis is applied to detect their determinants. The empirical application finds that motivations, influenced by age, and length of stay with a non-linear effect, are explanatory factors of tourists’ price sensitivity to activities.