Little evidence that hepatitis C virus leads to a higher risk of mortality in the absence of cirrhosis and excess alcohol intake: the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort Study.

The objective of this study was to describe the all-cause mortality of participants in the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort compared to the Swiss general population. Patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection attending secondary and tertiary care centres in Switzerland. One thousand six hundred and forty-five patients with HCV infection were followed up for a mean of over 2 years. We calculated all-cause standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using age, sex and calendar year-specific Swiss all-cause mortality rates. Multivariable Poisson regression was used to model the variability of SMR by cirrhotic status, HCV genotype, infection with hepatitis B virus or HIV, injection drug use and alcohol intake. Sixty-one deaths were recorded out of 1645 participants. The crude all-cause SMR was 4.5 (95% CI: 3.5-5.8). Patients co-infected with HIV had a crude SMR of 20 (95% CI: 11.1-36.1). The SMR of 1.1 (95% CI: 0.63-2.03) for patients who were not cirrhotic, not infected with HBV or HIV, did not inject drugs, were not heavy alcohol consumers (<or=40 g/day) and were not genotype 3, indicated no strong evidence of excess mortality. We found little evidence of excess mortality in hepatitis C infected patients who were not cirrhotic, in the absence of selected risk factors. Our findings emphasize the importance of providing appropriate preventive advice, such as counselling to avoid alcohol intake, in those infected with HCV.

Recent trends in colorectal cancer mortality in Europe.

Colorectal cancer mortality has been declining over the last two decades in Europe, particularly in women, the trends being, however, different across countries and age groups. We updated to 2007 colorectal cancer mortality trends in Europe using data from the World Health Organization (WHO). Rates were analyzed for the overall population and separately in young, middle-age and elderly populations. In the European Union (EU), between 1997 and 2007 mortality from colorectal cancer declined by around 2% per year, from 19.7 to 17.4/100,000 men (world standardized rates) and from 12.5 to 10.5/100,000 women. Persisting favorable trends were observed in countries of western and northern Europe, while there were more recent declines in several countries of eastern Europe, including the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia particularly in women (but not Romania and the Russian Federation). In 2007, a substantial excess in colorectal cancer mortality was still observed in Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia, the Czech Republic and Slovenia in men (rates over 25/100,000), and in Hungary, Norway, Denmark and Slovakia in women (rates over 14/100,000). Colorectal mortality trends were more favorable in the young (30-49 years) from most European countries, with a decline of ∼2% per year since the early 1990s in both men and women from the EU. The recent decreases in colorectal mortality rates in several European countries are likely due to improvements in (early) diagnosis and treatment, with a consequent higher survival from the disease. Interventions to further reduce colorectal cancer burden are, however, still warranted, particularly in eastern European countries.

Infant Mortality in Iowa Interim Study Committee, January 1992

The Infant Mortality in Iowa Interim Study Committee was established by the Legislative Council to review historical trends in Iowa's infant mortality rates to identify the extent of the problem on a statewide basis. Identify areas in the state with the greatest incidence of infant mortality, and research health complications. Identify factors which lead to impoverished families, and research access to health care services. Survey and review the current structure of service provided to pregnant women in Iowa health care facilities, and solicit information on the level of existing prenatal services. Recommend changes in Iowa's health care system which would lower Iowa's infant mortality rate.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2012.

BACKGROUND: Estimating current cancer mortality figures is important for defining priorities for prevention and treatment.Materials and methods:Using logarithmic Poisson count data joinpoint models on mortality and population data from the World Health Organization database, we estimated numbers of deaths and age-standardized rates in 2012 from all cancers and selected cancer sites for the whole European Union (EU) and its six more populated countries. RESULTS: Cancer deaths in the EU in 2012 are estimated to be 1 283 101 (717 398 men and 565 703 women) corresponding to standardized overall cancer death rates of 139/100 000 men and 85/100 000 women. The fall from 2007 was 10% in men and 7% in women. In men, declines are predicted for stomach (-20%), leukemias (-11%), lung and prostate (-10%) and colorectal (-7%) cancers, and for stomach (-23%), leukemias (-12%), uterus and colorectum (-11%) and breast (-9%) in women. Almost stable rates are expected for pancreatic cancer (+2-3%) and increases for female lung cancer (+7%). Younger women show the greatest falls in breast cancer mortality rates in the EU (-17%), and declines are expected in all individual countries, except Poland. CONCLUSION: Apart for lung cancer in women and pancreatic cancer, continuing falls are expected in mortality from major cancers in the EU.

Trends in mortality from hepatocellular carcinoma in Europe, 1980-2004.

Upward trends in mortality from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) were recently reported in the United States and Japan. Comprehensive analyses of most recent data for European countries are not available. Age-standardized (world standard) HCC rates per 100,000 (at all ages, at age 20-44, and age 45-59 years) were computed for 23 European countries over the period 1980-2004 using data from the World Health Organization. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify significant changes in trends, and annual percent change were computed. Male overall mortality from HCC increased in Austria, Germany, Switzerland, and other western countries, while it significantly decreased over recent years in countries such as France and Italy, which had large upward trends until the mid-1990s. In the early 2000s, among countries allowing distinction between HCC and other liver cancers, the highest HCC rates in men were in France (6.8/100,000), Italy (6.7), and Switzerland (5.9), whereas the lowest ones were in Norway (1.0), Ireland (0.8), and Sweden (0.7). In women, a slight increase in overall HCC mortality was observed in Spain and Switzerland, while mortality decreased in several other European countries, particularly since the mid-1990s. In the early 2000s, female HCC mortality rates were highest in Italy (1.9/100,000), Switzerland (1.8), and Spain (1.5) and lowest in Greece, Ireland, and Sweden (0.3). In most countries, trends at age 45-59 years were consistent with overall ones, whereas they were more favorable at age 20-44 years in both sexes. CONCLUSION: HCC mortality remains largely variable across Europe. Favorable trends were observed in several European countries mainly over the last decade, particularly in women and in young adults.

Changes in the risk of death after HIV seroconversion compared with mortality in the general population.

CONTEXT: Mortality among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals has decreased dramatically in countries with good access to treatment and may now be close to mortality in the general uninfected population. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate changes in the mortality gap between HIV-infected individuals and the general uninfected population. DESIGN, SETTING, AND POPULATION: Mortality following HIV seroconversion in a large multinational collaboration of HIV seroconverter cohorts (CASCADE) was compared with expected mortality, calculated by applying general population death rates matched on demographic factors. A Poisson-based model adjusted for duration of infection was constructed to assess changes over calendar time in the excess mortality among HIV-infected individuals. Data pooled in September 2007 were analyzed in March 2008, covering years at risk 1981-2006. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Excess mortality among HIV-infected individuals compared with that of the general uninfected population. RESULTS: Of 16,534 individuals with median duration of follow-up of 6.3 years (range, 1 day to 23.8 years), 2571 died, compared with 235 deaths expected in an equivalent general population cohort. The excess mortality rate (per 1000 person-years) decreased from 40.8 (95% confidence interval [CI], 38.5-43.0; 1275.9 excess deaths in 31,302 person-years) before the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (pre-1996) to 6.1 (95% CI, 4.8-7.4; 89.6 excess deaths in 14,703 person-years) in 2004-2006 (adjusted excess hazard ratio, 0.05 [95% CI, 0.03-0.09] for 2004-2006 vs pre-1996). By 2004-2006, no excess mortality was observed in the first 5 years following HIV seroconversion among those infected sexually, though a cumulative excess probability of death remained over the longer term (4.8% [95% CI, 2.5%-8.6%] in the first 10 years among those aged 15-24 years). CONCLUSIONS: Mortality rates for HIV-infected persons have become much closer to general mortality rates since the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy. In industrialized countries, persons infected sexually with HIV now appear to experience mortality rates similar to those of the general population in the first 5 years following infection, though a mortality excess remains as duration of HIV infection lengthens.

A first population-based cohort study of risk factors of stroke mortality in Africa

Background: We are not aware of any population-based cohort study of risk factors of stroke in the African region. We conducted a longitudinal study in the Seychelles (Indian Ocean, east of Kenya), a middle-income island state with majority of the population of African descent. Data in Africa are important for international comparison and for advocacy in the region. Methods: Three population-based examination surveys were performed in 1989, 1994 and 2004 (n_1081, 1067, and 1255, respectively). Baseline data were linked with cause-specific mortality from vital statistics up to May 2007. We considered stroke (any type) as a cause of death if the diagnosis was reported in any of the 4 fields for underlying and concomitant causes of death. Results. Among the 3317 different persons aged 25-64 at baseline, 291 died including 58 with stroke during follow up (mean: 10.2 years). The prevalence of high blood pressure (BP _140/90 mmHg) was 38%. In multivariate Cox regression, stroke mortality was increased by 18% and 35% for a 10-mmHg increase in systolic, respectively diastolic BP (p_0.001). The hazard ratios were 2.4 (95% CI: 1.7-3.3) for a 10-year age increase, 0.32 (0.15- 0.67) for a 1-mmol HDL-cholesterol increase, 2.2 (1.1- 4.2) for smoking _5 cigarettes vs. no smoking and 1.7 for diabetes (0.93-3.3; p_0.08). No significant association was found for sex, LDL-cholesterol, alcohol intake, and occupation. Conclusion. This first populationbased cohort study in the African region demonstrates high mortality rates from stroke in middle-aged adults and confirms the important role of high BP. This emphasizes the critical importance of reducing BP and other modifiable risk factors in this population.

An age-period-cohort analysis of gastric cancer mortality from 1950 to 2007 in Europe.

PURPOSE: To analyze the components of the favorable trends in gastric cancer in Europe. METHODS: From official certified deaths from gastric cancer and population estimates for 42 countries of the European geographical region, during the period 1950 to 2007, age-standardized death rates (World Standard Population) were computed, and an age-period-cohort analysis was performed. RESULTS: Central and Northern countries with lower rates in the 2005 to 2007 period, such as France (5.28 and 1.93/100,000, men and women respectively) and Sweden (4.49 and 2.21/100,000), had descending period and cohort effects that decreased steeply from the earliest cohorts until those born in the 1940s, to then stabilize. Former nonmarket economy countries had mortality rates greater than 20/100,000 men and 10/100,000 women, and displayed a later start in the cohort effect fall, which continued in the younger cohorts. Mortality remained high in some countries of Southern and Eastern Europe. CONCLUSIONS: The decrease in gastric cancer mortality was observed in both cohort and period effects but was larger in the cohorts, suggesting that the downward trends are likely to persist in countries with higher rates. In a few Western countries with very low rates an asymptote appears to have been reached for cohorts born after the 1940s, particularly in women.

Monitoring the decreasing trend of testicular cancer mortality in Spain during 2005-2019 through a Bayesian approach

Purpose : To assess time trends of testicular cancer (TC) mortality in Spain for period 1985-2019 for age groups 15-74 years old through a Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Methods: A Bayesian age-drift model has been fitted to describe trends. Projections for 2005-2019 have been calculated by means of an autoregressive APC model. Prior precision for these parameters has been selected through evaluation of an adaptive precision parameter and 95% credible intervals (95% CRI) have been obtained for each model parameter. Results: A decrease of -2.41% (95% CRI: -3.65%; -1.13%) per year has been found for TC mortality rates in age groups 15-74 during 1985-2004, whereas mortality showed a lower annual decrease when data was restricted to age groups 15-54 (-1.18%; 95% CRI: -2.60%; -0.31%). During 2005-2019 is expected a decrease of TC mortality of 2.30% per year for men younger than 35, whereas a leveling off for TC mortality rates is expected for men older than 35. Conclusions: A Bayesian approach should be recommended to describe and project time trends for those diseases with low number of cases. Through this model it has been assessed that management of TC and advances in therapy led to decreasing trend of TC mortality during the period 1985-2004, whereas a leveling off for these trends can be considered during 2005-2019 among men older than 35.

Monitoring the decreasing trend of testicular cancer mortality in Spain during 2005-2019 through a Bayesian approach

Purpose : To assess time trends of testicular cancer (TC) mortality in Spain for period 1985-2019 for age groups 15-74 years old through a Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Methods: A Bayesian age-drift model has been fitted to describe trends. Projections for 2005-2019 have been calculated by means of an autoregressive APC model. Prior precision for these parameters has been selected through evaluation of an adaptive precision parameter and 95% credible intervals (95% CRI) have been obtained for each model parameter. Results: A decrease of -2.41% (95% CRI: -3.65%; -1.13%) per year has been found for TC mortality rates in age groups 15-74 during 1985-2004, whereas mortality showed a lower annual decrease when data was restricted to age groups 15-54 (-1.18%; 95% CRI: -2.60%; -0.31%). During 2005-2019 is expected a decrease of TC mortality of 2.30% per year for men younger than 35, whereas a leveling off for TC mortality rates is expected for men older than 35. Conclusions: A Bayesian approach should be recommended to describe and project time trends for those diseases with low number of cases. Through this model it has been assessed that management of TC and advances in therapy led to decreasing trend of TC mortality during the period 1985-2004, whereas a leveling off for these trends can be considered during 2005-2019 among men older than 35.

Monitoring the decreasing trend of testicular cancer mortality in Spain during 2005-2019 through a Bayesian approach

Purpose : To assess time trends of testicular cancer (TC) mortality in Spain for period 1985-2019 for age groups 15-74 years old through a Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Methods: A Bayesian age-drift model has been fitted to describe trends. Projections for 2005-2019 have been calculated by means of an autoregressive APC model. Prior precision for these parameters has been selected through evaluation of an adaptive precision parameter and 95% credible intervals (95% CRI) have been obtained for each model parameter. Results: A decrease of -2.41% (95% CRI: -3.65%; -1.13%) per year has been found for TC mortality rates in age groups 15-74 during 1985-2004, whereas mortality showed a lower annual decrease when data was restricted to age groups 15-54 (-1.18%; 95% CRI: -2.60%; -0.31%). During 2005-2019 is expected a decrease of TC mortality of 2.30% per year for men younger than 35, whereas a leveling off for TC mortality rates is expected for men older than 35. Conclusions: A Bayesian approach should be recommended to describe and project time trends for those diseases with low number of cases. Through this model it has been assessed that management of TC and advances in therapy led to decreasing trend of TC mortality during the period 1985-2004, whereas a leveling off for these trends can be considered during 2005-2019 among men older than 35.

Monitoring the decreasing trend of testicular cancer mortality in Spain during 2005-2019 through a Bayesian approach

Purpose : To assess time trends of testicular cancer (TC) mortality in Spain for period 1985-2019 for age groups 15-74 years old through a Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Methods: A Bayesian age-drift model has been fitted to describe trends. Projections for 2005-2019 have been calculated by means of an autoregressive APC model. Prior precision for these parameters has been selected through evaluation of an adaptive precision parameter and 95% credible intervals (95% CRI) have been obtained for each model parameter. Results: A decrease of -2.41% (95% CRI: -3.65%; -1.13%) per year has been found for TC mortality rates in age groups 15-74 during 1985-2004, whereas mortality showed a lower annual decrease when data was restricted to age groups 15-54 (-1.18%; 95% CRI: -2.60%; -0.31%). During 2005-2019 is expected a decrease of TC mortality of 2.30% per year for men younger than 35, whereas a leveling off for TC mortality rates is expected for men older than 35. Conclusions: A Bayesian approach should be recommended to describe and project time trends for those diseases with low number of cases. Through this model it has been assessed that management of TC and advances in therapy led to decreasing trend of TC mortality during the period 1985-2004, whereas a leveling off for these trends can be considered during 2005-2019 among men older than 35.

Contribution of early detection and adjuvant treatments to breast cancer mortality reduction in Catalonia, Spain

Background: Reductions in breast cancer (BC) mortality in Western countries have been attributed to the use of screening mammography and adjuvant treatments. The goal of this work was to analyze the contributions of both interventions to the decrease in BC mortality between 1975 and 2008 in Catalonia. Methodology/Principal Findings: A stochastic model was used to quantify the contribution of each intervention. Age standardized BC mortality rates for calendar years 1975-2008 were estimated in four hypothetical scenarios: 1) Only screening, 2) Only adjuvant treatment, 3) Both interventions, and 4) No intervention. For the 30-69 age group, observed Catalan BC mortality rates per 100,000 women-year rose from 29.4 in 1975 to 38.3 in 1993, and afterwards continuously decreased to 23.2 in 2008. If neither of the two interventions had been used, in 2008 the estimated BC mortality would have been 43.5, which, compared to the observed BC mortality rate, indicates a 46.7% reduction. In 2008 the reduction attributable to screening was 20.4%, to adjuvant treatments was 15.8% and to both interventions 34.1%. Conclusions/Significance: Screening and adjuvant treatments similarly contributed to reducing BC mortality in Catalonia. Mathematical models have been useful to assess the impact of interventions addressed to reduce BC mortality that occurred over nearly the same periods.

High hepatic and extrahepatic mortality and low treatment uptake in HCV-coinfected persons in the Swiss HIV cohort study between 2001 and 2013.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The landscape of HCV treatments is changing dramatically. At the beginning of this new era, we highlight the challenges for HCV therapy by assessing the long-term epidemiological trends in treatment uptake, efficacy and mortality among HIV/HCV-coinfected people since the availability of HCV therapy. METHODS: We included all SHCS participants with detectable HCV RNA between 2001 and 2013. To identify predictors for treatment uptake uni- and multivariable Poisson regression models were applied. We further used survival analyses with Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression with drop-out as competing risk. RESULTS: Of 12,401 participants 2107 (17%) were HCV RNA positive. Of those, 636 (30%) started treatment with an incidence of 5.8/100 person years (PY) (95% CI 5.3-6.2). Sustained virological response (SVR) with pegylated interferon/ribavirin was achieved in 50% of treated patients, representing 15% of all participants with replicating HCV-infection. 344 of 2107 (16%) HCV RNA positive persons died, 59% from extrahepatic causes. Mortality/100 PY was 2.9 (95% CI 2.6-3.2) in untreated patients, 1.3 (1.0-1.8) in those treated with failure, and 0.6 (0.4-1.0) in patients with SVR. In 2013, 869/2107 (41%) participants remained HCV RNA positive. CONCLUSIONS: Over the last 13years HCV treatment uptake was low and by the end of 2013, a large number of persons remain to be treated. Mortality was high, particularly in untreated patients, and mainly due to non-liver-related causes. Accordingly, in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients, integrative care including the diagnosis and therapy of somatic and psychiatric disorders is important to achieve mortality rates similar to HIV-monoinfected patients.

Veränderung von Inzidenz und Mortalität von Kopf-Hals-Malignomen in Rheinland-Pfalz, 2000-2009 [Changes in Incidence and Mortality Trends of Head and Neck Cancer in Rhineland-Palatinate, 2000-2009].

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological data on HNC are often reported aggregated despite their anatomical and histological heterogeneity. In Germany, few studies have analyzed incidence and mortality trends separately for specific anatomic sites. Furthermore, little is known about whether the incidence of HPV-associated tumour entities of the head and neck region has increased. METHODS: Based on cancer registry data from Rhineland-Palatinate from 2000 to 2009, age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated for all HNC sites and localisation groups that might be HPV-associated according to the literature. Trends were analyzed by Joinpoint regression and reported as the annual percentage change (APC). RESULTS: Throughout the study period, 8 055 incident cases and 3 177 deaths were identified. The incidence rates of overall HNC increased among women (APC:+2.2%) and declined slightly among men (- 0.9%). Significantly increasing incidence rates among women were seen for tumours of the oral cavity (+2.7%) and the oropharynx (+3.6%). Among men, a significant decrease in incidence rates for tumours of the hypopharynx (-3.4%) and the larynx (-2.7%) are noteworthy. Cancers at HPV-associated sites showed increased incidence rates in men (+3.3%) and women (+4.3%). A decrease in mortality was found for tumours of the larynx in both sexes (-5.8% men,-9.1% women). CONCLUSIONS: A detailed analysis by localisation of HNC showed significant and often opposing trends for men and women regarding incidence and mortality.