Modelling the effects of gravity waves on stratocumulus clouds observed during VOCALS-UK

During the VOCALS campaign spaceborne satellite observations showed that travelling gravity wave packets, generated by geostrophic adjustment, resulted in perturbations to marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds over the south-east Pacific Ocean (SEP). Often, these perturbations were reversible in that passage of the wave resulted in the clouds becoming brighter (in the wave crest), then darker (in the wave trough) and subsequently recovering their properties after the passage of the wave. However, occasionally the wave packets triggered irreversible changes to the clouds, which transformed from closed mesoscale cellular convection to open form. In this paper we use large eddy simulation (LES) to examine the physical mechanisms that cause this transition. Specifically, we examine whether the clearing of the cloud is due to (i) the wave causing additional cloud-top entrainment of warm, dry air or (ii) whether the additional condensation of liquid water onto the existing drops and the subsequent formation of drizzle are the important mechanisms. We find that, although the wave does cause additional drizzle formation, this is not the reason for the persistent clearing of the cloud; rather it is the additional entrainment of warm, dry air into the cloud followed by a reduction in longwave cooling, although this only has a significant effect when the cloud is starting to decouple from the boundary layer. The result in this case is a change from a stratocumulus to a more patchy cloud regime. For the simulations presented here, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) scavenging did not play an important role in the clearing of the cloud. The results have implications for understanding transitions between the different cellular regimes in marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds.

Modelling the reorientation of sea-ice faults as the wind changes direction

A discrete-element model of sea ice is used to study how a 90° change in wind direction alters the pattern of faults generated through mechanical failure of the ice. The sea-ice domain is 400km in size and consists of polygonal floes obtained through a Voronoi tessellation. Initially the floes are frozen together through viscous–elastic joints that can break under sufficient compressive, tensile and shear deformation. A constant wind-stress gradient is applied until the initially frozen ice pack is broken into roughly diamond-shaped aggregates, with crack angles determined by wing-crack formation. Then partial refreezing of the cracks delineating the aggregates is modelled through reduction of their length by a particular fraction, the ice pack deformation is neglected and the wind stress is rotated by 90°. New cracks form, delineating aggregates with a different orientation. Our results show the new crack orientation depends on the refrozen fraction of the initial faults: as this fraction increases, the new cracks gradually rotate to the new wind direction, reaching 90° for fully refrozen faults. Such reorientation is determined by a competition between new cracks forming at a preferential angle determined by the wing-crack theory and at old cracks oriented at a less favourable angle but having higher stresses due to shorter contacts across the joints

Modelling the rheology of sea ice as a collection of diamond-shaped floes

In polar oceans, seawater freezes to form a layer of sea ice of several metres thickness that can cover up to 8% of the Earth’s surface. The modelled sea ice cover state is described by thickness and orientational distribution of interlocking, anisotropic diamond-shaped ice floes delineated by slip lines, as supported by observation. The purpose of this study is to develop a set of equations describing the mean-field sea ice stresses that result from interactions between the ice floes and the evolution of the ice floe orientation, which are simple enough to be incorporated into a climate model. The sea ice stress caused by a deformation of the ice cover is determined by employing an existing kinematic model of ice floe motion, which enables us to calculate the forces acting on the ice floes due to crushing into and sliding past each other, and then by averaging over all possible floe orientations. We describe the orientational floe distribution with a structure tensor and propose an evolution equation for this tensor that accounts for rigid body rotation of the floes, their apparent re-orientation due to new slip line formation, and change of shape of the floes due to freezing and melting. The form of the evolution equation proposed is motivated by laboratory observations of sea ice failure under controlled conditions. Finally, we present simulations of the evolution of sea ice stress and floe orientation for several imposed flow types. Although evidence to test the simulations against is lacking, the simulations seem physically reasonable.

Hyperresolution information and hyperresolution ignorance in modelling the hydrology of the land surface

There is a strong drive towards hyperresolution earth system models in order to resolve finer scales of motion in the atmosphere. The problem of obtaining more realistic representation of terrestrial fluxes of heat and water, however, is not just a problem of moving to hyperresolution grid scales. It is much more a question of a lack of knowledge about the parameterisation of processes at whatever grid scale is being used for a wider modelling problem. Hyperresolution grid scales cannot alone solve the problem of this hyperresolution ignorance. This paper discusses these issues in more detail with specific reference to land surface parameterisations and flood inundation models. The importance of making local hyperresolution model predictions available for evaluation by local stakeholders is stressed. It is expected that this will be a major driving force for improving model performance in the future. Keith BEVEN, Hannah CLOKE, Florian PAPPENBERGER, Rob LAMB, Neil HUNTER

Progress in observing and modelling the urban boundary layer

The urban boundary layer (UBL) is the part of the atmosphere in which most of the planet’s population now lives, and is one of the most complex and least understood microclimates. Given potential climate change impacts and the requirement to develop cities sustainably, the need for sound modelling and observational tools becomes pressing. This review paper considers progress made in studies of the UBL in terms of a conceptual framework spanning microscale to mesoscale determinants of UBL structure and evolution. Considerable progress in observing and modelling the urban surface energy balance has been made. The urban roughness sub-layer is an important region requiring attention as assumptions about atmospheric turbulence break down in this layer and it may dominate coupling of the surface to the UBL due to its considerable depth. The upper 90% of the UBL (mixed and residual layers) remains under-researched but new remote sensing methods and high resolution modelling tools now permit rapid progress. Surface heterogeneity dominates from neighbourhood to regional scales and should be more strongly considered in future studies. Specific research priorities include humidity within the UBL, high-rise urban canopies and the development of long-term, spatially extensive measurement networks coupled strongly to model development.

Modelling the high-latitude ionosphere for time-varying plasma convection

The paper discusses how variations in the pattern of convective plasma flows should beincluded in self-consistent time-dependent models of the coupled ionosphere-thermosphere system. The author shows how these variations depend upon the mechanism by which the solar wind flow excites the convection. The modelling of these effects is not just of relevance to the polar ionosphere. This is because the influence of convection is not confined to high latitudes: the resultant heating and composition changes in the thermosphere are communicated to lower latitudes by the winds which are also greatly modified by the plasma convection. These thermospheric changes alter the global distribution of plasma by modulatingthe rates of the chemical reactions which areresponsible for the loss of plasma. Hence the modelling of these high-latitude processes is of relevanceto the design and operation of HF communication, radar and navigation systems worldwide.

Modelling the resistance of Enterprise Architecture adoption: linking strategic level of Enterprise Architecture to organisational changes and change resistance

During the last few years Enterprise Architecture (EA) has received increasing attention among industry and academia. By adopting EA, organisations may gain a number of benefits such as better decision making,increased revenues and cost reduction, and alignment of business and IT. However, EA adoption has been found to be difficult. In this paper a model to explain resistance during EA adoption process (REAP) is introduced and validated. The model reveals relationships between strategic level of EA, resulting organisational changes, and sources of resistance. By utilising REAP model, organisations may anticipate and prepare for the organisational change resistance during EA adoption.

Modelling the rheology of anisotropic particles adsorbed on a two-dimensional fluid interface

We present a general approach based on nonequilibrium thermodynamics for bridging the gap between a well-defined microscopic model and the macroscopic rheology of particle-stabilised interfaces. Our approach is illustrated by starting with a microscopic model of hard ellipsoids confined to a planar surface, which is intended to simply represent a particle-stabilised fluid–fluid interface. More complex microscopic models can be readily handled using the methods outlined in this paper. From the aforementioned microscopic starting point, we obtain the macroscopic, constitutive equations using a combination of systematic coarse-graining, computer experiments and Hamiltonian dynamics. Exemplary numerical solutions of the constitutive equations are given for a variety of experimentally relevant flow situations to explore the rheological behaviour of our model. In particular, we calculate the shear and dilatational moduli of the interface over a wide range of surface coverages, ranging from the dilute isotropic regime, to the concentrated nematic regime.

Modelling the medieval economy: money, prices and income in England, 1263-1520

This chapter presents a simple econometric model of the medieval English economy, focusing on the relationship between money, prices and incomes. The model is estimated using annual data for the period 1263-1520 obtained from various sources. The start date is determined by the availability of continuous runs of annual data, while the finishing date immediately precedes the take-off of Tudor price inflation. Accounts from the ecclesiastical and monastic estates have survived in great numbers for this period, thereby ensuring that crop yields can be estimated from a regionally representative set of estates.

Modelling the bioaccumulation of persistent organic pollutants in agricultural food chains for regulatory exposure assessment

New models for estimating bioaccumulation of persistent organic pollutants in the agricultural food chain were developed using recent improvements to plant uptake and cattle transfer models. One model named AgriSim was based on K OW regressions of bioaccumulation in plants and cattle, while the other was a steady-state mechanistic model, AgriCom. The two developed models and European Union System for the Evaluation of Substances (EUSES), as a benchmark, were applied to four reported food chain (soil/air-grass-cow-milk) scenarios to evaluate the performance of each model simulation against the observed data. The four scenarios considered were as follows: (1) polluted soil and air, (2) polluted soil, (3) highly polluted soil surface and polluted subsurface and (4) polluted soil and air at different mountain elevations. AgriCom reproduced observed milk bioaccumulation well for all four scenarios, as did AgriSim for scenarios 1 and 2, but EUSES only did this for scenario 1. The main causes of the deviation for EUSES and AgriSim were the lack of the soil-air-plant pathway and the ambient air-plant pathway, respectively. Based on the results, it is recommended that soil-air-plant and ambient air-plant pathway should be calculated separately and the K OW regression of transfer factor to milk used in EUSES be avoided. AgriCom satisfied the recommendations that led to the low residual errors between the simulated and the observed bioaccumulation in agricultural food chain for the four scenarios considered. It is therefore recommended that this model should be incorporated into regulatory exposure assessment tools. The model uncertainty of the three models should be noted since the simulated concentration in milk from 5th to 95th percentile of the uncertainty analysis often varied over two orders of magnitude. Using a measured value of soil organic carbon content was effective to reduce this uncertainty by one order of magnitude.

Modelling the line variations from the wind-wind shock emissions of WR 30a

The study of Wolf-Rayet stars plays an important role in evolutionary theories of massive stars. Among these objects, similar to 20 per cent are known to be in binary systems and can therefore be used for the mass determination of these stars. Most of these systems are not spatially resolved and spectral lines can be used to constrain the orbital parameters. However, part of the emission may originate in the interaction zone between the stellar winds, modifying the line profiles and thus challenging us to use different models to interpret them. In this work, we analysed the He II lambda 4686 angstrom + C IV lambda 4658 angstrom blended lines of WR 30a (WO4+O5) assuming that part of the emission originate in the wind-wind interaction zone. In fact, this line presents a quiescent base profile, attributed to the WO wind, and a superposed excess, which varies with the orbital phase along the 4.6-d period. Under these assumptions, we were able to fit the excess spectral line profile and central velocity for all phases, except for the longest wavelengths, where a spectral line with constant velocity seems to be present. The fit parameters provide the eccentricity and inclination of the binary orbit, from which it is possible to constrain the stellar masses.

Modelling the warm H(2) infrared emission of the Helix nebula cometary knots

Molecular hydrogen emission is commonly observed in planetary nebulae. Images taken in infrared H(2) emission lines show that at least part of the molecular emission is produced inside the ionized region. In the best studied case, the Helix nebula, the H(2) emission is produced inside cometary knots (CKs), comet-shaped structures believed to be clumps of dense neutral gas embedded within the ionized gas. Most of the H(2) emission of the CKs seems to be produced in a thin layer between the ionized diffuse gas and the neutral material of the knot, in a mini-photodissociation region (mini-PDR). However, PDR models published so far cannot fully explain all the characteristics of the H(2) emission of the CKs. In this work, we use the photoionization code AANGABA to study the H(2) emission of the CKs, particularly that produced in the interface H(+)/H(0) of the knot, where a significant fraction of the H(2) 1-0 S(1) emission seems to be produced. Our results show that the production of molecular hydrogen in such a region may explain several characteristics of the observed emission, particularly the high excitation temperature of the H(2) infrared lines. We find that the temperature derived from H(2) observations, even of a single knot, will depend very strongly on the observed transitions, with much higher temperatures derived from excited levels. We also proposed that the separation between the H alpha and [N II] peak emission observed in the images of CKs may be an effect of the distance of the knot from the star, since for knots farther from the central star the [N II] line is produced closer to the border of the CK than H alpha.

Modelling the secular evolution of migrating planet pairs

The subject of this paper is the secular behaviour of a pair of planets evolving under dissipative forces. In particular, we investigate the case when dissipative forces affect the planetary semimajor axes and the planets move inwards/outwards the central star, in a process known as planet migration. To perform this investigation, we introduce fundamental concepts of conservative and dissipative dynamics of the three-body problem. Based on these concepts, we develop a qualitative model of the secular evolution of the migrating planetary pair. Our approach is based on the analysis of the energy and the orbital angular momentum exchange between the two-planet system and an external medium; thus no specific kind of dissipative forces is invoked. We show that, under the assumption that dissipation is weak and slow, the evolutionary routes of the migrating planets are traced by the Mode I and Mode II stationary solutions of the conservative secular problem. The ultimate convergence and the evolution of the system along one of these secular modes of motion are determined uniquely by the condition that the dissipation rate is sufficiently smaller than the proper secular frequency of the system. We show that it is possible to reassemble the starting configurations and the migration history of the systems on the basis of their final states and consequently to constrain the parameters of the physical processes involved.

Modelling the Provenance of Data in Autonomous Systems

Determining the provenance of data, i.e. the process that led to that data, is vital in many disciplines. For example, in science, the process that produced a given result must be demonstrably rigorous for the result to be deemed reliable. A provenance system supports applications in recording adequate documentation about process executions to answer queries regarding provenance, and provides functionality to perform those queries. Several provenance systems are being developed, but all focus on systems in which the components are textitreactive, for example Web Services that act on the basis of a request, job submission system, etc. This limitation means that questions regarding the motives of autonomous actors, or textitagents, in such systems remain unanswerable in the general case. Such questions include: who was ultimately responsible for a given effect, what was their reason for initiating the process and does the effect of a process match what was intended to occur by those initiating the process? In this paper, we address this limitation by integrating two solutions: a generic, re-usable framework for representing the provenance of data in service-oriented architectures and a model for describing the goal-oriented delegation and engagement of agents in multi-agent systems. Using these solutions, we present algorithms to answer common questions regarding responsibility and success of a process and evaluate the approach with a simulated healthcare example.