A multi-model analysis of the role of the ocean on the African and Indian monsoon during mid-Holocene

We investigate the role of the ocean feedback on the climate in response to insolation forcing during the mid-Holocene (6,000 year BP) using results from seven coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models. We examine how the dipole in late summer sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Atlantic increases the length of the African monsoon, how this dipole structure is created and maintained, and how the late summer SST warming in the northwest Indian Ocean affects the monsoon retreat in this sector. Similar mechanisms are found in all of the models, including a strong wind evaporation feedback and changes in the mixed layer depth that enhance the insolation forcing, as well as increased Ekman transport in the Atlantic that sharpens the Atlantic dipole pattern. We also consider changes in interannual variability over West Africa and the Indian Ocean. The teleconnection between variations in SST and Sahelian precipitation favor a larger impact of the Atlantic dipole mode in this region. In the Indian Ocean, the strengthening of the Indian dipole structure in autumn has a damping effect on the Indian dipole mode at the interannual time scale

The Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison project (ORA-IP)

Uncertainty in ocean analysis methods and deficiencies in the observing system are major obstacles for the reliable reconstruction of the past ocean climate. The variety of existing ocean reanalyses is exploited in a multi-reanalysis ensemble to improve the ocean state estimation and to gauge uncertainty levels. The ensemble-based analysis of signal-to-noise ratio allows the identification of ocean characteristics for which the estimation is robust (such as tropical mixed-layer-depth, upper ocean heat content), and where large uncertainty exists (deep ocean, Southern Ocean, sea ice thickness, salinity), providing guidance for future enhancement of the observing and data assimilation systems.

A comparison of global estimates of marine primary production from ocean color

The third primary production algorithm round robin (PPARR3) compares output from 24 models that estimate depth-integrated primary production from satellite measurements of ocean color, as well as seven general circulation models (GCMs) coupled with ecosystem or biogeochemical models. Here we compare the global primary production fields corresponding to eight months of 1998 and 1999 as estimated from common input fields of photosynthetically-available radiation (PAR), sea-surface temperature (SST), mixed-layer depth, and chlorophyll concentration. We also quantify the sensitivity of the ocean-color-based models to perturbations in their input variables. The pair-wise correlation between ocean-color models was used to cluster them into groups or related output, which reflect the regions and environmental conditions under which they respond differently. The groups do not follow model complexity with regards to wavelength or depth dependence, though they are related to the manner in which temperature is used to parameterize photosynthesis. Global average PP varies by a factor of two between models. The models diverged the most for the Southern Ocean, SST under 10 degrees C, and chlorophyll concentration exceeding 1 mg Chlm(-3). Based on the conditions under which the model results diverge most, we conclude that current ocean-color-based models are challenged by high-nutrient low-chlorophyll conditions, and extreme temperatures or chlorophyll concentrations. The GCM-based models predict comparable primary production to those based on ocean color: they estimate higher values in the Southern Ocean, at low SST, and in the equatorial band, while they estimate lower values in eutrophic regions (probably because the area of high chlorophyll concentrations is smaller in the GCMs). Further progress in primary production modeling requires improved understanding of the effect of temperature on photosynthesis and better parameterization of the maximum photosynthetic rate. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The influence of large-scale circulation, transient and local processes on the seasonal circulation of the Eastern Brazilian Shelf, 13 degrees S

The circulation at the Eastern Brazilian Shelf (EBS), near 13 degrees S, is discussed in terms of the currents and hydrography, associating large-scale circulation, transient and local processes to establish a regional picture of the EBS circulation. The results show that the circulation within the continental shelf and slope region is strongly affected by the seasonal changes in the wind field and mesa/large-scale circulation. Transient processes associated to the passage of Cold Front systems or meso-scale activity and the presence of a local canyon add more complexity to the system. During the austral spring and summer seasons, the prevailing upwelling favorable winds blowing from E-NE were responsible for driving southwestward shelf currents. The interaction with the Western Boundary Current (the Brazil Current), especially during summer, was significant and a considerable vertical shear in the velocity field was observed at the outer shelf. The passage of a Cold Front system during the springtime caused a complete reversal of the mean flow and contributed to the deepening of the Mixed Layer Depth (MLD). In addition, the presence of Salvador Canyon, subject to an upwelling favorable boundary current, enhanced the upwelling system, when compared to the upwelling observed at the adjacent shelf. During the austral autumn and winter seasons the prevailing downwelling favorable winds blowing from the SE acted to total reverse the shelf circulation, resulting in a northeastward flow. The passage of a strong Cold Front, during the autumn season, contributed not only to the strengthening of the flow but also to the deepening of the MLD. The presence of the Salvador Canyon, when subject to a downwelling favorable boundary current, caused an intensification of the downwelling process. Interestingly, the alongshore velocity at the shelf region adjacent to the head of the canyon was less affected when compared to the upwelling situation.

Estimating the monthly pCO2 distribution in the North Atlantic using a self-organizing neural network

[EN] Here we present monthly, basin-wide maps of the partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) for the North Atlantic on a latitude by longitude grid for years 2004 through 2006 inclusive. The maps have been computed using a neural network technique which reconstructs the non-linear relationships between three biogeochemical parameters and marine pCO2. A self organizing map (SOM) neural network has been trained using 389 000 triplets of the SeaWiFSMODIS chlorophyll-a concentration, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis sea surface temperature, and the FOAM mixed layer depth. The trained SOM was labelled with 137 000 underway pCO2 measurements collected in situ during 2004, 2005 and 2006 in the North Atlantic, spanning the range of 208 to 437atm. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the neural network fit to the data is 11.6?atm, which equals to just above 3 per cent of an average pCO2 value in the in situ dataset. The seasonal pCO2 cycle as well as estimates of the interannual variability in the major biogeochemical provinces are presented and discussed. High resolution combined with basin-wide coverage makes the maps a useful tool for several applications such as the monitoring of basin-wide air-sea CO2 fluxes or improvement of seasonal and interannual marine CO2 cycles in future model predictions. The method itself is a valuable alternative to traditional statistical modelling techniques used in geosciences.

Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis

Changes in marine net primary productivity (PP) and export of particulate organic carbon (EP) are projected over the 21st century with four global coupled carbon cycle-climate models. These include representations of marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle of different structure and complexity. All four models show a decrease in global mean PP and EP between 2 and 20% by 2100 relative to preindustrial conditions, for the SRES A2 emission scenario. Two different regimes for productivity changes are consistently identified in all models. The first chain of mechanisms is dominant in the low- and mid-latitude ocean and in the North Atlantic: reduced input of macro-nutrients into the euphotic zone related to enhanced stratification, reduced mixed layer depth, and slowed circulation causes a decrease in macro-nutrient concentrations and in PP and EP. The second regime is projected for parts of the Southern Ocean: an alleviation of light and/or temperature limitation leads to an increase in PP and EP as productivity is fueled by a sustained nutrient input. A region of disagreement among the models is the Arctic, where three models project an increase in PP while one model projects a decrease. Projected changes in seasonal and interannual variability are modest in most regions. Regional model skill metrics are proposed to generate multi-model mean fields that show an improved skill in representing observation-based estimates compared to a simple multi-model average. Model results are compared to recent productivity projections with three different algorithms, usually applied to infer net primary production from satellite observations.

Understanding the performance of the FLake model over two African Great Lakes

The ability of the one-dimensional lake model FLake to represent the mixolimnion temperatures for tropical conditions was tested for three locations in East Africa: Lake Kivu and Lake Tanganyika's northern and southern basins. Meteorological observations from surrounding automatic weather stations were corrected and used to drive FLake, whereas a comprehensive set of water temperature profiles served to evaluate the model at each site. Careful forcing data correction and model configuration made it possible to reproduce the observed mixed layer seasonality at Lake Kivu and Lake Tanganyika (northern and southern basins), with correct representation of both the mixed layer depth and water temperatures. At Lake Kivu, mixolimnion temperatures predicted by FLake were found to be sensitive both to minimal variations in the external parameters and to small changes in the meteorological driving data, in particular wind velocity. In each case, small modifications may lead to a regime switch, from the correctly represented seasonal mixed layer deepening to either completely mixed or permanently stratified conditions from similar to 10 m downwards. In contrast, model temperatures were found to be robust close to the surface, with acceptable predictions of near-surface water temperatures even when the seasonal mixing regime is not reproduced. FLake can thus be a suitable tool to parameterise tropical lake water surface temperatures within atmospheric prediction models. Finally, FLake was used to attribute the seasonal mixing cycle at Lake Kivu to variations in the near-surface meteorological conditions. It was found that the annual mixing down to 60m during the main dry season is primarily due to enhanced lake evaporation and secondarily to the decreased incoming long wave radiation, both causing a significant heat loss from the lake surface and associated mixolimnion cooling.

Effects of Surface Forcing on Interannual Variability of the Fall Phytoplankton Bloom in the Gulf of Maine Revealed Using a Process-Oriented Model

SeaWiFS (Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor) chlorophyll data revealed strong interannual variability in fall phytoplankton dynamics in the Gulf of Maine, with 3 general features in any one year: (1) rapid chlorophyll increases in response to storm events in fall; (2) gradual chlorophyll increases in response to seasonal wind-and cooling-induced mixing that gradually deepens the mixed layer; and (3) the absence of any observable fall bloom. We applied a mixed-layer box model and a 1-dimensional physical-biological numerical model to examine the influence of physical forcing (surface wind, heat flux, and freshening) on the mixed-layer dynamics and its impact on the entrainment of deep-water nutrients and thus on the appearance of fall bloom. The model results suggest that during early fall, the surface mixed-layer depth is controlled by both wind-and cooling-induced mixing. Strong interannual variability in mixed-layer depth has a direct impact on short-and long-term vertical nutrient fluxes and thus the fall bloom. Phytoplankton concentrations over time are sensitive to initial pre-bloom profiles of nutrients. The strength of the initial stratification can affect the modeled phytoplankton concentration, while the timing of intermittent freshening events is related to the significant interannual variability of fall blooms.

Evaluation of long chain 1,14-alkyl diols in marine sediments as indicators for upwelling and temperature

Long chain alkyl diols form a group of lipids occurring widely in marine environments. Recent studies have suggested several palaeoclimatological applications for proxies based on their distributions, but also revealed uncertainties about their applicability. Here we evaluate the use of long chain 1,14-alkyl diol indices for reconstruction of temperature and upwelling conditions by comparing index values, obtained from a comprehensive set of marine surface sediments, with environmental factors like sea surface temperature (SST), salinity and nutrient concentrations. Previous cultivation efforts indicated a strong effect of temperature on the degree of saturation and the chain length distribution of long chain 1,14-alkyl diols in Proboscia spp., quantified in the diol saturation index (DSI) and diol chain length index (DCI), respectively. However, values of these indices in surface sediments show no relationship with annual mean SST of the overlying water. It remains unknown what determines the DSI, although our data suggests that it may be affected by diagenesis, while the relationship between temperature and DCI may be different for different Proboscia species. In addition, contributions of algae other than Proboscia diatoms may affect both indices, although our data provide no direct evidence for additional long chain 1,14-alkyl diol sources. Two other indices using the abundance of 1,14-diols vs. 1,13-diols and C30 1,15-diols have previously been applied as indicators for upwelling intensity at different locations. The geographical distribution of their values supports the use of 1,14 diols vs. 1,13 diols [C28 + C30 1,14-diols]/[(C28 + C30 1,13-diols) + (C28 + C30 1,14-diols)] as a general indicator for high nutrient or upwelling conditions.

Export of algal biomass from the melting Arctic sea ice

In the Arctic, under-ice primary production is limited to summer months and is not only restricted by ice thickness and snow cover but also by the stratification of the water column, which constrains nutrient supply for algal growth. RV Polarstern visited the ice-covered Eastern Central basins between 82 to 89°N and 30 to 130°E in summer 2012 when Arctic sea ice declined to a record minimum. During this cruise, we observed a widespread deposition of ice algal biomass of on average 9 g C per m**2 to the deep-sea floor of the Central Arctic basins. Data from this cruise will contribute to assessing the impact of current climate change on Arctic productivity, biodiversity, and ecological function.

Planktonic foraminiferal flux in the Subantarctic

Sediment trap moorings deployed during 1997 and 1998 in the Subantarctic to Polar Frontal regions of the Southern Ocean reveal distinct seasonality in foraminiferal flux. Foraminiferal assemblages vary between each site, yet major species exhibit very similar patterns of seasonal succession which can be associated with changes in mixed layer depth. Enhanced foraminiferal productivity is also associated with periods of high biogenic silica and particulate organic carbon flux. On a broader scale, foraminiferal assemblages are strongly delineated by temperature. Temperature estimates derived from the assemblages using the modern analog technique (MAT) are mostly within 2.5°C of the satellite advanced very high resolution radiometer temperatures observed during the deployment period. This indicates that core top sediments included in the MAT database do reflect modern observed conditions at the sea surface, providing a robust technique for estimating past temperature change from foraminiferal assemblages in Southern Ocean environments.

Chlorophyll a and carbon fluxes, and characteristics of the water column during summer 2008 in the Beaufort Sea

Following the extreme low ice year of 2007, primary production and the sinking export of particulate and gel-like organic material, using short-term particle interceptor traps deployed at 100 m, were measured in the southeastern Beaufort Sea during summer 2008. The combined influence of early ice retreat and coastal upwelling contributed to exceptionally high primary production (500 ± 312 mg C/m**2/day, n = 7), dominated by large cells (>5 µm, 73% ± 15%, n = 7). However, except for one station located north of Cape Bathurst, the sinking export of particulate organic carbon (POC) was relatively low (range: 38-104 mg C/m**2/day, n = 12) compared to other productive Arctic shelves. Estimates indicate that 80% ± 20% of the primary production was cycled through large copepods or the microbial food web. Exopolymeric substances were abundant in the sinking material but did not appear to accelerate POC sinking export. The use of isotopic signatures (d13C, d15N) and carbon/nitrogen ratios to identify sources of the sinking material was successful only at two stations with a strong marine or terrestrial signature, indicating the limitations of this approach in hydrographically and biologically complex Arctic coastal waters such as in the Beaufort Sea. At these two stations influenced by either coastal upwelling or erosion, the composition and magnitude of particulate sinking fluxes were markedly different from other stations visited during the study. These observations underscore the fundamental role of mesoscale circulation patterns and hydrodynamic singularities on the export of particulate organic material on Arctic shelves.

Physicochemical and photosynthetic characteristics of water samples obtained during a CCGS Amundsen cruise in 2008

During summer 2008, as part of the Circumpolar Flaw Lead system study, we measured phytoplankton photosynthetic parameters to understand regional patterns in primary productivity, including the degree and timescale of photoacclimation and how variability in environmental conditions influences this response. Photosynthesis-irradiance measurements were taken at 15 sites primarily from the depth of the subsurface chlorophyll a (Chl a) maximum (SCM) within the Beaufort Sea flaw lead polynya. The physiological response of phytoplankton to a range of light levels was used to assess maximum rates of carbon (C) fixation (P*m), photosynthetic efficiency (alpha*), photoacclimation (Ek), and photoinhibition (beta*). SCM samples taken along a transect from under ice into open water exhibited a >3-fold increase in alpha* and P*m, showing these parameters can vary substantially over relatively small spatial scales, primarily in response to changes in the ambient light field. Algae were able to maintain relatively high rates of C fixation despite low light at the SCM, particularly in the large (>5 µm) size fraction at open water sites. This may substantially impact biogenic C drawdown if species composition shifts in response to future climate change. Our results suggest that phytoplankton in this region are well acclimated to existing environmental conditions, including sea ice cover, low light, and nutrient pulses. Furthermore, this photoacclimatory response can be rapid and keep pace with a developing SCM, as phytoplankton maintain photosynthetic rates and efficiencies in a narrow ''shade-acclimated'' range.