Use of the ratio plot in capture-recapture estimation

Statistical graphics are a fundamental, yet often overlooked, set of components in the repertoire of data analytic tools. Graphs are quick and efficient, yet simple instruments of preliminary exploration of a dataset to understand its structure and to provide insight into influential aspects of inference such as departures from assumptions and latent patterns. In this paper, we present and assess a graphical device for choosing a method for estimating population size in capture-recapture studies of closed populations. The basic concept is derived from a homogeneous Poisson distribution where the ratios of neighboring Poisson probabilities multiplied by the value of the larger neighbor count are constant. This property extends to the zero-truncated Poisson distribution which is of fundamental importance in capture–recapture studies. In practice however, this distributional property is often violated. The graphical device developed here, the ratio plot, can be used for assessing specific departures from a Poisson distribution. For example, simple contaminations of an otherwise homogeneous Poisson model can be easily detected and a robust estimator for the population size can be suggested. Several robust estimators are developed and a simulation study is provided to give some guidance on which should be used in practice. More systematic departures can also easily be detected using the ratio plot. In this paper, the focus is on Gamma mixtures of the Poisson distribution which leads to a linear pattern (called structured heterogeneity) in the ratio plot. More generally, the paper shows that the ratio plot is monotone for arbitrary mixtures of power series densities.

A novel ensemble method for retrieving properties of warm cloud in 3-D using ground-based scanning radar and zenith radiances

We present a novel method for retrieving high-resolution, three-dimensional (3-D) nonprecipitating cloud fields in both overcast and broken-cloud situations. The method uses scanning cloud radar and multiwavelength zenith radiances to obtain gridded 3-D liquid water content (LWC) and effective radius (re) and 2-D column mean droplet number concentration (Nd). By using an adaption of the ensemble Kalman filter, radiances are used to constrain the optical properties of the clouds using a forward model that employs full 3-D radiative transfer while also providing full error statistics given the uncertainty in the observations. To evaluate the new method, we first perform retrievals using synthetic measurements from a challenging cumulus cloud field produced by a large-eddy simulation snapshot. Uncertainty due to measurement error in overhead clouds is estimated at 20% in LWC and 6% in re, but the true error can be greater due to uncertainties in the assumed droplet size distribution and radiative transfer. Over the entire domain, LWC and re are retrieved with average error 0.05–0.08 g m-3 and ~2 μm, respectively, depending on the number of radiance channels used. The method is then evaluated using real data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program Mobile Facility at the Azores. Two case studies are considered, one stratocumulus and one cumulus. Where available, the liquid water path retrieved directly above the observation site was found to be in good agreement with independent values obtained from microwave radiometer measurements, with an error of 20 g m-2.

A laboratory incubation method for determining the rate of microbiological degradation of skeletal muscle tissue in soil

A controlled laboratory experiment is described, in principle and practice, which can be used for the of determination the rate of tissue decomposition in soil. By way of example, an experiment was conducted to determine the effect of temperature (12°C, 22°C) on the aerobic decomposition of skeletal muscle tissue (Organic Texel × Suffolk lamb (Ovis aries)) in a sandy loam soil. Measurements of decomposition processes included muscle tissue mass loss, microbial CO2 respiration, and muscle tissue carbon (C) and nitrogen (N). Muscle tissue mass loss at 22°C always was greater than at 12°C (p < 0.001). Microbial respiration was greater in samples incubated at 22°C for the initial 21 days of burial (p < 0.01). All buried muscle tissue samples demonstrated changes in C and N content at the end of the experiment. A significant correlation (p < 0.001) was demonstrated between the loss of muscle tissue-derived C (C1) and microbially-respired C (Cm) demonstrating CO2 respiration may be used to predict mass loss and hence biodegradation. In this experiment Q10 (12°C - 22°C) = 2.0. This method is recommended as a useful tool in determining the effect of environmental variables on the rate of decomposition of various tissues and associated materials.

Describing the Situational Contexts of Sweetened Product Consumption in a Middle Eastern Canadian Community: Application of a Mixed Method Design

Little is known about the situational contexts in which individuals consume processed sources of dietary sugars. This study aimed to describe the situational contexts associated with the consumption of sweetened food and drink products in a Catholic Middle Eastern Canadian community. A two-stage exploratory sequential mixed-method design was employed with a rationale of triangulation. In stage 1 (n = 62), items and themes describing the situational contexts of sweetened food and drink product consumption were identified from semi-structured interviews and were used to develop the content for the Situational Context Instrument for Sweetened Product Consumption (SCISPC). Face validity, readability and cultural relevance of the instrument were assessed. In stage 2 (n = 192), a cross-sectional study was conducted and exploratory factor analysis was used to examine the structure of themes that emerged from the qualitative analysis as a means of furthering construct validation. The SCISPC reliability and predictive validity on the daily consumption of sweetened products were also assessed. In stage 1, six themes and 40-items describing the situational contexts of sweetened product consumption emerged from the qualitative analysis and were used to construct the first draft of the SCISPC. In stage 2, factor analysis enabled the clarification and/or expansion of the instrument's initial thematic structure. The revised SCISPC has seven factors and 31 items describing the situational contexts of sweetened product consumption. Initial validation of the instrument indicated it has excellent internal consistency and adequate test-retest reliability. Two factors of the SCISPC had predictive validity for the daily consumption of total sugar from sweetened products (Snacking and Energy demands) while the other factors (Socialization, Indulgence, Constraints, Visual Stimuli and Emotional needs) were rather associated to occasional consumption of these products.

Using Prior Information from the Medical Literature in GWAS of Oral Cancer Identifies Novel Susceptibility Variant on Chromosome 4-the AdAPT Method

Background: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) require large sample sizes to obtain adequate statistical power, but it may be possible to increase the power by incorporating complementary data. In this study we investigated the feasibility of automatically retrieving information from the medical literature and leveraging this information in GWAS. Methods: We developed a method that searches through PubMed abstracts for pre-assigned keywords and key concepts, and uses this information to assign prior probabilities of association for each single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) with the phenotype of interest - the Adjusting Association Priors with Text (AdAPT) method. Association results from a GWAS can subsequently be ranked in the context of these priors using the Bayes False Discovery Probability (BFDP) framework. We initially tested AdAPT by comparing rankings of known susceptibility alleles in a previous lung cancer GWAS, and subsequently applied it in a two-phase GWAS of oral cancer. Results: Known lung cancer susceptibility SNPs were consistently ranked higher by AdAPT BFDPs than by p-values. In the oral cancer GWAS, we sought to replicate the top five SNPs as ranked by AdAPT BFDPs, of which rs991316, located in the ADH gene region of 4q23, displayed a statistically significant association with oral cancer risk in the replication phase (per-rare-allele log additive p-value [p(trend)] = 2.5 x 10(-3)). The combined OR for having one additional rare allele was 0.83 (95% CI: 0.76-0.90), and this association was independent of previously identified susceptibility SNPs that are associated with overall UADT cancer in this gene region. We also investigated if rs991316 was associated with other cancers of the upper aerodigestive tract (UADT), but no additional association signal was found. Conclusion: This study highlights the potential utility of systematically incorporating prior knowledge from the medical literature in genome-wide analyses using the AdAPT methodology. AdAPT is available online (url: http://services.gate.ac.uk/lld/gwas/service/config).

Development of a field method to assess root parasites of woody plants - ecological analyses of the grapevine-phylloxera interaction

The development and the growth of plants is strongly affected by the interactions between roots, rootrnassociated organisms and rhizosphere communities. Methods to assess such interactions are hardly torndevelop particularly in perennial and woody plants, due to their complex root system structure and theirrntemporal change in physiology patterns. In this respect, grape root systems are not investigated veryrnwell. The aim of the present work was the development of a method to assess and predict interactionsrnat the root system of rootstocks (Vitis berlandieri x Vitis riparia) in field. To achieve this aim, grapernphylloxera (Daktulosphaira vitifoliae Fitch, Hemiptera, Aphidoidea) was used as a graperoot parasitizingrnmodel.rnTo develop the methodical approach, a longt-term trial (2006-2009) was arranged on a commercial usedrnvineyard in Geisenheim/Rheingau. All 2 to 8 weeks the top most 20 cm of soil under the foliage wallrnwere investigated and root material was extracted (n=8-10). To include temporal, spatial and cultivarrnspecific root system dynamics, the extracted root material was analyzed digitally on the morphologicalrnproperties. The grape phylloxera population was quantified and characterized visually on base of theirrnlarvalstages (oviparous, non oviparous and winged preliminary stages). Infection patches (nodosities)rnwere characterized visually as well, partly supported by digital root color analyses. Due to the knownrneffects of fungal endophytes on the vitality of grape phylloxera infested grapevines, fungal endophytesrnwere isolated from nodosity and root tissue and characterized (morphotypes) afterwards. Further abioticrnand biotic soil conditions of the vineyards were assessed. The temporal, spatial and cultivar specificrnsensitivity of single parameters were analyzed by omnibus tests (ANOVAs) and adjacent post-hoc tests.rnThe relations between different parameters were analyzed by multiple regression models.rnQuantitative parameters to assess the degeneration of nodosity, the development nodosity attachedrnroots and to differentiate between nodosities and other root swellings in field were developed. Significantrndifferences were shown between root dynamic including parameters and root dynamic ignoringrnparameters. Regarding the description of grape phylloxera population and root system dynamic, thernmethod showed a high temporal, spatial and cultivar specific sensitivity. Further, specific differencesrncould be shown in the frequency of endophyte morphotypes between root and nodosity tissue as wellrnas between cultivars. Degeneration of nodosities as well as nodosity occupation rates could be relatedrnto the calculated abundances of grape phylloxera population. Further ecological questions consideringrngrape root development (e.g. relation between moisture and root development) and grape phylloxerarnpopulation development (e.g. relation between temperature and population structure) could be answeredrnfor field conditions.rnGenerally, the presented work provides an approach to evaluate vitality of grape root systems. Thisrnapproach can be useful, considering the development of control strategies against soilborne pests inrnviticulture (e.g. grape phylloxera, Sorospheara viticola, Roesleria subterranea (Weinm.) Redhaed) as well as considering the evaluation of integrated management systems in viticulture.

A new method to monitor visual field defects caused by photoreceptor degeneration by quantitative optical coherence tomography

PURPOSE: To correlate the dimension of the visual field (VF) tested by Goldman kinetic perimetry with the extent of visibility of the highly reflective layer between inner and outer segments of photoreceptors (IOS) seen in optical coherence tomography (OCT) images in patients with retinitis pigmentosa (RP). METHODS: In a retrospectively designed cross-sectional study, 18 eyes of 18 patients with RP were examined with OCT and Goldmann perimetry using test target I4e and compared with 18 eyes of 18 control subjects. A-scans of raw scan data of Stratus OCT images (Carl Zeiss Meditec, AG, Oberkochen, Germany) were quantitatively analyzed for the presence of the signal generated by the highly reflective layer between the IOS in OCT images. Starting in the fovea, the distance to which this signal was detectable was measured. Visual fields were analyzed by measuring the distance from the center point to isopter I4e. OCT and visual field data were analyzed in a clockwise fashion every 30 degrees , and corresponding measures were correlated. RESULTS: In corresponding alignments, the distance from the center point to isopter I4e and the distance to which the highly reflective signal from the IOS can be detected correlate significantly (r = 0.75, P < 0.0001). The greater the distance in VF, the greater the distance measured in OCT. CONCLUSIONS: The authors hypothesize that the retinal structure from which the highly reflective layer between the IOS emanates is of critical importance for visual and photoreceptor function. Further research is warranted to determine whether this may be useful as an objective marker of progression of retinal degeneration in patients with RP.

IMILAST: A community effort to intercompare extratropical cyclone detection and tracking algorithms: assessing method-related uncertainties

The variability of results from different automated methods of detection and tracking of extratropical cyclones is assessed in order to identify uncertainties related to the choice of method. Fifteen international teams applied their own algorithms to the same dataset - the period 1989-2009 of interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERAInterim) data. This experiment is part of the community project Intercomparison of Mid Latitude Storm Diagnostics (IMILAST; see www.proclim.ch/imilast/index.html). The spread of results for cyclone frequency, intensity, life cycle, and track location is presented to illustrate the impact of using different methods. Globally, methods agree well for geographical distribution in large oceanic regions, interannual variability of cyclone numbers, geographical patterns of strong trends, and distribution shape for many life cycle characteristics. In contrast, the largest disparities exist for the total numbers of cyclones, the detection of weak cyclones, and distribution in some densely populated regions. Consistency between methods is better for strong cyclones than for shallow ones. Two case studies of relatively large, intense cyclones reveal that the identification of the most intense part of the life cycle of these events is robust between methods, but considerable differences exist during the development and the dissolution phases.

The mark of a good healer: Examining health care behaviors in the Vietnamese community

The purpose of this study was to conduct a descriptive, exploratory analysis of the utilization of both traditional healing methods and western biomedical approaches to health care among members of the Vietnamese community in Houston, Texas. The first goal of the study was to identify the type(s) of health care that the Vietnamese use. The second goal was to highlight the numerous factors that may influence why certain health care choices are made. The third goal of this study was to examine the issue of preference to determine which practices would be used if limiting factors did not exist. ^ There were 81 participants, consisting of males and females who were 18 years or older. The core groups of participants were Vietnamese students from the University of Houston-Downtown and volunteer staff members from VN TeamWork. Asking the students and staff members to recommend others for the study used the snowball method of recruiting additional participants. ^ Surveys and informed consents were in English and Vietnamese. The participants were given the choice to take the surveys face-to-face or on their own. Surveys consisted of structured questions with predetermined choices, as well as, open-ended questions to allow more detailed information. The quantitative and qualitative data were coded and entered into a database, using SPSS software version 15.0. ^ Results indicated that participants used both traditional (38.3%) and biomedical (59.3%) healing, with 44.4% stating that it depended on the illness as to treatment. Coining was the most used traditional healing method, clearly still used by all ages. Coining was also the method most used when issues regarding fear and delayed western medical treatment were involved. It was determined that insurance status, more than household income, guided health care choices. A person's age, number of years spent in the United States, age at migration, and the use of certain traditional healing methods like coining all played a role in the importance of the health care practitioner speaking Vietnamese. The most important finding was that 64.2% of the participants preferred both traditional and western medicine because both methods work. ^

Use of an Inverse Method for Time Series to Estimate the Dynamics of and Management Strategies for the Box Jellyfish Carybdea marsupialis

Frequently, population ecology of marine organisms uses a descriptive approach in which their sizes and densities are plotted over time. This approach has limited usefulness for design strategies in management or modelling different scenarios. Population projection matrix models are among the most widely used tools in ecology. Unfortunately, for the majority of pelagic marine organisms, it is difficult to mark individuals and follow them over time to determine their vital rates and built a population projection matrix model. Nevertheless, it is possible to get time-series data to calculate size structure and densities of each size, in order to determine the matrix parameters. This approach is known as a “demographic inverse problem” and it is based on quadratic programming methods, but it has rarely been used on aquatic organisms. We used unpublished field data of a population of cubomedusae Carybdea marsupialis to construct a population projection matrix model and compare two different management strategies to lower population to values before year 2008 when there was no significant interaction with bathers. Those strategies were by direct removal of medusae and by reducing prey. Our results showed that removal of jellyfish from all size classes was more effective than removing only juveniles or adults. When reducing prey, the highest efficiency to lower the C. marsupialis population occurred when prey depletion affected prey of all medusae sizes. Our model fit well with the field data and may serve to design an efficient management strategy or build hypothetical scenarios such as removal of individuals or reducing prey. TThis This sdfsdshis method is applicable to other marine or terrestrial species, for which density and population structure over time are available.

Phakometric measurement of ocular surface radius of curvature and alignment: evaluation of method with physical model eyes

Ophthalmophakometric measurements of ocular surface radius of curvature and alignment were evaluated on physical model eyes encompassing a wide range of human ocular dimensions. The results indicated that defocus errors arising from imperfections in the ophthalmophakometer camera telecentricity and light source collimation were smaller than experimental errors. Reasonable estimates emerged for anterior lens surface radius of curvature (accuracy: 0.02–0.10 mm; precision 0.05–0.09 mm), posterior lens surface radius of curvature (accuracy: 0.10–0.55 mm; precision 0.06–0.20 mm), eye rotation (accuracy: 0.00–0.32°; precision 0.06–0.25°), lens tilt (accuracy: 0.00–0.33°; precision 0.05–0.98°) and lens decentration (accuracy: 0.00–0.07 mm; precision 0.00–0.07 mm).