An introduction to radial basis functions for system identification: a comparison with other neural network methods

A look is taken at the use of radial basis functions (RBFs), for nonlinear system identification. RBFs are firstly considered in detail themselves and are subsequently compared with a multi-layered perceptron (MLP), in terms of performance and usage.

An Earth Observation Land Data Assimilation System (EO-LDAS)

Current methods for estimating vegetation parameters are generally sub-optimal in the way they exploit information and do not generally consider uncertainties. We look forward to a future where operational dataassimilation schemes improve estimates by tracking land surface processes and exploiting multiple types of observations. Dataassimilation schemes seek to combine observations and models in a statistically optimal way taking into account uncertainty in both, but have not yet been much exploited in this area. The EO-LDAS scheme and prototype, developed under ESA funding, is designed to exploit the anticipated wealth of data that will be available under GMES missions, such as the Sentinel family of satellites, to provide improved mapping of land surface biophysical parameters. This paper describes the EO-LDAS implementation, and explores some of its core functionality. EO-LDAS is a weak constraint variational dataassimilationsystem. The prototype provides a mechanism for constraint based on a prior estimate of the state vector, a linear dynamic model, and EarthObservationdata (top-of-canopy reflectance here). The observation operator is a non-linear optical radiative transfer model for a vegetation canopy with a soil lower boundary, operating over the range 400 to 2500 nm. Adjoint codes for all model and operator components are provided in the prototype by automatic differentiation of the computer codes. In this paper, EO-LDAS is applied to the problem of daily estimation of six of the parameters controlling the radiative transfer operator over the course of a year (> 2000 state vector elements). Zero and first order process model constraints are implemented and explored as the dynamic model. The assimilation estimates all state vector elements simultaneously. This is performed in the context of a typical Sentinel-2 MSI operating scenario, using synthetic MSI observations simulated with the observation operator, with uncertainties typical of those achieved by optical sensors supposed for the data. The experiments consider a baseline state vector estimation case where dynamic constraints are applied, and assess the impact of dynamic constraints on the a posteriori uncertainties. The results demonstrate that reductions in uncertainty by a factor of up to two might be obtained by applying the sorts of dynamic constraints used here. The hyperparameter (dynamic model uncertainty) required to control the assimilation are estimated by a cross-validation exercise. The result of the assimilation is seen to be robust to missing observations with quite large data gaps.

A closer look at chaotic advection in the stratosphere: part I: geometric structure

The relevance of chaotic advection to stratospheric mixing and transport is addressed in the context of (i) a numerical model of forced shallow-water flow on the sphere, and (ii) a middle-atmosphere general circulation model. It is argued that chaotic advection applies to both these models if there is suitable large-scale spatial structure in the velocity field and if the velocity field is temporally quasi-regular. This spatial structure is manifested in the form of “cat’s eyes” in the surf zone, such as are commonly seen in numerical simulations of Rossby wave critical layers; by analogy with the heteroclinic structure of a temporally aperiodic chaotic system the cat’s eyes may be thought of as an “organizing structure” for mixing and transport in the surf zone. When this organizing structure exists, Eulerian and Lagrangian autocorrelations of the velocity derivatives indicate that velocity derivatives decorrelate more rapidly along particle trajectories than at fixed spatial locations (i.e., the velocity field is temporally quasi-regular). This phenomenon is referred to as Lagrangian random strain.

Multilevel research in the field of organizational behavior: an empirical look at 10 years of theory and research

During the last 30 years, significant debate has taken place regarding multilevel research. However, the extent to which multilevel research is overtly practiced remains to be examined. This article analyzes 10 years of organizational research within a multilevel framework (from 2001 to 2011). The goals of this article are (a) to understand what has been done, during this decade, in the field of organizational multilevel research and (b) to suggest new arenas of research for the next decade. A total of 132 articles were selected for analysis through ISI Web of Knowledge. Through a broad-based literature review, results suggest that there is equilibrium between the amount of empirical and conceptual papers regarding multilevel research, with most studies addressing the cross-level dynamics between teams and individuals. In addition, this study also found that the time still has little presence in organizational multilevel research. Implications, limitations, and future directions are addressed in the end. Organizations are made of interacting layers. That is, between layers (such as divisions, departments, teams, and individuals) there is often some degree of interdependence that leads to bottom-up and top-down influence mechanisms. Teams and organizations are contexts for the development of individual cognitions, attitudes, and behaviors (top-down effects; Kozlowski & Klein, 2000). Conversely, individual cognitions, attitudes, and behaviors can also influence the functioning and outcomes of teams and organizations (bottom-up effects; Arrow, McGrath, & Berdahl, 2000). One example is when the rewards system of one organization may influence employees’ intention to quit and the existence or absence of extra role behaviors. At the same time, many studies have showed the importance of bottom-up emergent processes that yield higher level phenomena (Bashshur, Hernández, & González-Romá, 2011; Katz-Navon & Erez, 2005; Marques-Quinteiro, Curral, Passos, & Lewis, in press). For example, the affectivity of individual employees may influence their team’s interactions and outcomes (Costa, Passos, & Bakker, 2012). Several authors agree that organizations must be understood as multilevel systems, meaning that adopting a multilevel perspective is fundamental to understand real-world phenomena (Kozlowski & Klein, 2000). However, whether this agreement is reflected in practicing multilevel research seems to be less clear. In fact, how much is known about the quantity and quality of multilevel research done in the last decade? The aim of this study is to compare what has been proposed theoretically, concerning the importance of multilevel research, with what has really been empirically studied and published. First, this article outlines a review of the multilevel theory, followed by what has been theoretically “put forward” by researchers. Second, this article presents what has really been “practiced” based on the results of a review of multilevel studies published from 2001 to 2011 in business and management journals. Finally, some barriers and challenges to true multilevel research are suggested. This study contributes to multilevel research as it describes the last 10 years of research. It quantitatively depicts the type of articles being written, and where we can find the majority of the publications on empirical and conceptual work related to multilevel thinking.

Rerum cognoscere causas: part II - opportunities generated by the agency/structure debate and suggestions for clarifying the social theoretic position of system dynamics

This is the second half of a two-part paper dealing with the social theoretic assumptions underlying system dynamics. In the first half it was concluded that analysing system dynamics using traditional, paradigm-based social theories is highly problematic. An innovative and potentially fruitful resolution is now proposed to these problems. In the first section it is argued that in order to find an appropriate social theoretic home for system dynamics it is necessary to look to a key exchange in contemporary social science: the agency/structure debate. This debate aims to move beyond both the theories based only on the actions of individual human agents, and those theories that emphasise only structural influences. Emerging from this debate are various theories that instead aim to unite the human agent view of the social realm with views that concentrate solely on system structure. It is argued that system dynamics is best viewed as being implicitly grounded in such theories. The main conclusion is therefore that system dynamics can contribute to an important part of social thinking by providing a formal approach for explicating social mechanisms. This conclusion is of general significance for system dynamics. However, the over-arching aim of the two-part paper is to increase the understanding of system dynamics in related disciplines. Four suggestions are therefore offered for how the system dynamics method might be extended further into the social sciences. It is argued that, presented in the right way, the formal yet contingent feedback causality thinking of system dynamics should diffuse widely in the social sciences and make a distinctive and important contribution to them. Felix qui potuit rerum cognoscere causas Happy is he who comes to know the causes of things Virgil - Georgics, Book II, line 490. 29 BCE

Vox Populi, Vox Dei? A closer look at the ‘public opinion’ argument for retention

The Japanese government’s justification for retaining the death penalty is that abolition would erode the legitimacy of and public trust in the criminal justice system, leading to victims’ families taking justice into their own hands. This justification is based on the results of a regularly administered public opinion survey, which is said to show strong public support for the death penalty. However, a close analysis of the results of the 2014 survey fails to validate this claim. Just over a third of respondents were committed to retaining the death penalty at all costs, while the rest accepted the possibility of future abolition, with some of them seeing this as contingent on the introduction of life imprisonment without parole as an alternative sentence. These findings hardly describe a society that expects the strict application of the death penalty and whose trust in justice depends on the government’s commitment to retaining it. My reading of the 2014 survey is that the Japanese public is ready to embrace abolition. Japan, after all, is a signatory to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, which calls on states not to delay or prevent abolition, so this should be welcome news for the Japanese government!

A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a simple empirical system based on multiple linear regression for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation across the globe. The global CO2-equivalent concentration is taken as the primary predictor; subsequent predictors, including large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and local-scale information, are selected on the basis of their physical relationship with the predictand. The focus given to the climate change signal as a source of skill and the probabilistic nature of the forecasts produced constitute a novel approach to global empirical prediction. Hindcasts for the period 1961–2013 are validated against observations using deterministic (correlation of seasonal means) and probabilistic (continuous rank probability skill scores) metrics. Good skill is found in many regions, particularly for surface air temperature and most notably in much of Europe during the spring and summer seasons. For precipitation, skill is generally limited to regions with known El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. The system is used in a quasi-operational framework to generate empirical seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis.

Health in Brazil 5 Violence and injuries in Brazil: the effect, progress made, and challenges ahead

Although there are signs of decline, homicides and traffic-related injuries and deaths in Brazil account for almost two-thirds of all deaths from external causes. In 2007, the homicide rate was 26.8 per 100 000 people and traffic-related mortality was 23.5 per 100 000. Domestic violence might not lead to as many deaths, but its share of violence-related morbidity is large. These are important public health problems that lead to enormous individual and collective costs. Young, black, and poor men are the main victims and perpetrators of community violence, whereas poor black women and children are the main victims of domestic violence. Regional differentials are also substantial. Besides the sociocultural determinants, much of the violence in Brazil has been associated with the misuse of alcohol and illicit drugs, and the wide availability of firearms. The high traffic-related morbidity and mortality in Brazil have been linked to the chosen model for the transport system that has given priority to roads and private-car use without offering adequate infrastructure. The system is often poorly equipped to deal with violations of traffic rules. In response to the major problems of violence and injuries, Brazil has greatly advanced in terms of legislation and action plans. The main challenge is to assess these advances to identify, extend, integrate, and continue the successful ones.

Jämförelse av två system för att bedöma vinter väglag : Ett nytt system i utvecklingen för att säkra Sveriges vägar

Trafikverket, är den statliga verksamhet som har hand om alla Sveriges vägar och järnvägar har den så kallade nollvisionen som ett huvudmål. Tanken bakom nollvisionen är att de som använder vägarna skall vara säkra och inte komma till skada. En del av uppfyllandet av detta mål är att Trafikverket ger ut korttidsprognoser för väglag och körförhållande. I nuläget så används ett mycket manuellt systemet som heter NTIS, men man håller på att utveckla det nya automatiska systemet RCC som skall kunna ta fram korttidsprognoser baserat på olika former av data, t.ex. data från väderstationer. Syftet med denna studie är att utvärdera hur väl de två olika systemen utför en korttidsprognos och jämföra de mot varandra, samt verkligheten. Denna studie gjordes i form av en förklarande fallstudie. Som datainsamling används dokument i olika former och analysen var kvantitativ då resultatet av utvärdering ger olika procenttal av hur rätt respektive system har. Under undersökningen gång så kom vi fram till att båda systemen hade sina fördelar och nackdelar. T.ex. så det gamla NTIS systemet fortfarande bäst på isigt och moddigt väglag. Medans det nya RCC systemet hade sina egna fördelar, t.ex. snöigt väglag och vått väglag. Samt så hade RCC en klar fördel med sin rapporteringstid, vilket var ett problem man såg med NTIS. Resultat var som sagt ett procenttal av hur rätt de två olika systemen hade, men även förslag till förbättringar. T.ex. hur man skulle kunna ändra RCC regler för bättre resultat.

An intelligent forex monitoring system

The need for intelligent monitoring systems has become a necessity to keep track of the complex forex market. The vast currency market is a foreign concept to the average individual. However, once it is broken down into simple terms, the average individual can begin to understand the foreign exchange market and use it as a financial instrument for future investing. We attempt to compare the performance of a Takagi-Sugeno, type neuro-fuzzy system and a feedforward neural network trained using the scaled conjugate gradient algorithm to predict the average monthly forex rates. We considered the exchange values of Australian dollar with respect to US dollar, Singapore dollar, New Zealand dollar, Japanese yen and United Kingdom pounds. The connectionist models were trained using 70% of the data and remaining was used for testing and validation purposes. It is observed that the proposed connectionist models were able to predict the average forex rates one month ahead accurately. Experiment results also reveal that the neuro-fuzzy technique performed better than the neural network

A principles-based Anglo governance system is not a science but an art

Anglo governance systems rely of a number of controls to align shareholder and boards of director’s interests. In general they are referred to as market control, regulatory control, and political and cultural control. Agency theory proposes that these control mechanisms are necessary as human nature is such that directors and managers act in a self-interested and boundedly rational manner in decision-making that can result in sub optimality. Notwithstanding that each country within the Anglo system accepts such controls are necessary they have their own foci and priorities, being a product of their own system’s characteristics. This paper through interviewing a number of Australian business executives adds to the academic literature by providing evidence from the field of the important characteristics of the Australian governance system, the drivers of change and the effectiveness of the principles-based approach. It argues that debate needs to move beyond the principles versus rules approach to look at how firms can be provided with more guidance in operationalising some of the principles that appear to be key to governance effectiveness. It concludes that there is a need for a holistic model of governance that is broader than that focusing on the control/legalistic approach; that top management is important in setting and driving the in-firm governance agenda; that the public needs to be informed and educated about governance and its importance; and that disclosure still requires an improvement in quality.

Adjacency cache : an efficient P2P web cache indexing and lookup system

This paper describes the design and evaluation of an efficient per-to-peer (P2P) web cache indexing and lookup system, which can be used to integrate the resources of locally available web pages into globally addressable index using a distributed hash table. The salient feature of the indexing system’s design is the efficient dissemination of cache index information using a next-url index which allows cache clients to determine ahead of time whether linked content is also available at a remote cache. In addition, conventional optimizations such as in browser caching and batching of index write requests are also used. These optimizations are evaluated using trace-driven simulation and the results show that these design trade-offs improve cache lookup performance.

Improving our superannuation regime : a post-Henry review look at superannuation taxation, raising superannuation balances and longevity insurance

This paper examines what, if any changes should be made regarding certain aspects of the superannuation system. Specifically, it looks at possible changes to the superannuation tax regime, measures intended at increasing superannuation balances, as well as policies aimed at improving the price and availability of retirement income streams. The recommendations of the final report of the Henry Review on these issues are also critically evaluated. The paper finds that a greater targeting of superannuation tax concessions towards middle and lower income earners would make the system more equitable and achieve other desirable goals such as increasing voluntary savings. Furthermore, the available evidence suggests that the current mandatory contributions rate of 9% is adequate, and a higher contributions rate is likely to have more costs than benefits. On the issue of superannuation income streams, the article finds that whilst taxpayers should continue to be allowed to take their superannuation as a lump sum, policies should be implemented to make lifetime annuities more readily available and better value for money. The Henry Review's recommendations on these issues, with some exceptions, are for the most part sound and based on logic.

The accounting professional of the future : never mind the quality check the look!

Using legitimacy theory this paper contrasts the values portrayed by public accounting firms via their recruitment practices and society's expectations of the responsibilities of a professional accountant. Society confers on organisations legitimacy when the value system of the organisation is congruent with the value system of the larger social system (Deegan, 2006). It is argued that there is increasing incongruence between the value system of public accounting firms (that employ accounting graduates) and society's value system that includes an expectation of accountants to act in the public interest. This study draws on evidence from recent corporate collapses, to question whether the attributes/skills displayed by accountants have reduced their capacity to act in the public interest. Interviews with employers show that preferences for employment are given to graduates who 'fit the culture' of the organisation and have the ability to 'market' the firm to clients. Attributes that define the professional accountant appear to be less highly valued. It is concluded that the attributes valued in the workplace today have the potential to increase the risk of 'severing the social contract' between the accounting profession and society.

A fresh look at the validity of the diffusion approximation for modeling fluorescence spectroscopy in biological tissue

Fluorescence has become a widely used technique for applications in noninvasive diagnostic tissue spectroscopy. The standard model used for characterizing fluorescence photon transport in biological tissue is based on the diffusion approximation. On the premise that the total energy of excitation and fluorescent photon flows must be conserved, we derive the widely used diffusion equations in fluorescence spectroscopy and show that there must be an additional term to account for the transport of fluorescent photons. The significance of this additional term in modeling fluorescence spectroscopy in biological tissue is assessed.