Identfying predictors of St. Louis encephalitis activity in Houston Texas

Generalized linear Poisson and logistic regression models were utilized to examine the relationship between temperature and precipitation and cases of Saint Louis encephalitis virus spread in the Houston metropolitan area. The models were investigated with and without repeated measures, with a first order autoregressive (AR1) correlation structure used for the repeated measures model. The two types of Poisson regression models, with and without correlation structure, showed that a unit increase in temperature measured in degrees Fahrenheit increases the occurrence of the virus 1.7 times and a unit increase in precipitation measured in inches increases the occurrence of the virus 1.5 times. Logistic regression did not show these covariates to be significant as predictors for encephalitis activity in Houston for either correlation structure. This discrepancy for the logistic model could be attributed to the small data set.^ Keywords: Saint Louis Encephalitis; Generalized Linear Model; Poisson; Logistic; First Order Autoregressive; Temperature; Precipitation. ^

Genetic variants in the mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) signaling pathway as predictors of survival and clinical response in women with ovarian cancer

Background. The mTOR pathway is commonly altered in human tumors and promotes cell survival and proliferation. Preliminary evidence suggests this pathway's involvement in chemoresistance to platinum and taxanes, first line therapy for epithelial ovarian cancer. A pathway-based approach was used to identify individual germline single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and cumulative effects of multiple genetic variants in mTOR pathway genes and their association with clinical outcome in women with ovarian cancer. ^ Methods. The case-series was restricted to 319 non-Hispanic white women with high grade ovarian cancer treated with surgery and platinum-based chemotherapy. 135 SNPs in 20 representative genes in the mTOR pathway were genotyped. Hazard ratios (HRs) for death and Odds ratios (ORs) for failure to respond to primary therapy were estimated for each SNP using the multivariate Cox proportional hazards model and multivariate logistic regression model, respectively, while adjusting for age, stage, histology and treatment sequence. A survival tree analysis of SNPs with a statistically significant association (p<0.05) was performed to identify higher order gene-gene interactions and their association with overall survival. ^ Results. There was no statistically significant difference in survival by tumor histology or treatment regimen. The median survival for the cohort was 48.3 months. Seven SNPs were significantly associated with decreased survival. Compared to those with no unfavorable genotypes, the HR for death increased significantly with the increasing number of unfavorable genotypes and women in the highest risk category had HR of 4.06 (95% CI 2.29–7.21). The survival tree analysis also identified patients with different survival patterns based on their genetic profiles. 13 SNPs on five different genes were found to be significantly associated with a treatment response, defined as no evidence of disease after completion of primary therapy. Rare homozygous genotype of SNP rs6973428 showed a 5.5-fold increased risk compared to the wild type carrying genotypes. In the cumulative effect analysis, the highest risk group (individuals with ≥8 unfavorable genotypes) was significantly less likely to respond to chemotherapy (OR=8.40, 95% CI 3.10–22.75) compared to the low risk group (≤4 unfavorable genotypes). ^ Conclusions. A pathway-based approach can demonstrate cumulative effects of multiple genetic variants on clinical response to chemotherapy and survival. Therapy targeting the mTOR pathway may modify outcome in select patients.^

Predictors of HIV-1 slow progression among vertically infected children in Botswana

HIV-1 infected children display a highly variable rate of progression to AIDS. Data about reasons underlying the variable progression to AIDS among vertically-infected children is sparse, and the few studies that have examined this important question have almost exclusively been done in the developed world. This is despite the fact that Sub-Saharan Africa is home to over 90% of all HIV infected children around the world.^ The main objective of this study was to examine predictors of HIV-1 slow progression among vertically infected children in Botswana, using a case control design. Cases (slow progressors) and controls (rapid progressors) were drawn from medical records of HIV-1 infected children being followed up for routine care and treatment at the BBCCCOE between February 2003 and February 2011. Univariate and Multivariate Logistic Regression Analyses were performed to identify independent predictors of slow disease progression and control for confounding respectively. ^ The study population comprised of 152 cases and 201 controls with ages ranging from 6 months to 16 years at baseline. Low baseline HIV-1 RNA viral load was the strongest independent predictor of slow progression (adjusted OR = 5.52, 95% CI = 2.75-11.07; P <0.001). Other independent predictors of slow disease progression identified were: lack of history of PMTCT with single dose Nevirapine plus Zidovudine (adjusted OR = 4.45, 95% CI = 1.45-13.69; P = 0.009) and maternal vital status (alive) (adjusted OR = 2.46, 95% CI = 1.51-4.01; P < 0.00 ).^ The results of this study may help clinicians and policy-makers in resource-limited settings to identify, at baseline, which children are at highest risk of rapid progression to AIDS and thus prioritize them for immediate intervention with HAART and other measures that would mitigate disease progression. At the same time HAART may be delayed among children who are at lower risk of disease progression. This would enable the highly affected, yet impoverished, Sub-Saharan African countries to use their scarce resources more efficiently which may in turn ensure that their National Antiretroviral Therapy Programs become more sustainable. Delaying HAART among the low-risk children would also lower the occurrence of adverse drug reactions associated with antiretroviral drugs exposure.^ Keywords. Slow Progressors, Rapid Progressors, HIV-1, Predictors, Children, Vertical Transmission, Sub-Saharan Africa^

Prospective study of individual, social, and environmental predictors of physical activity: women's leisure running

Background: Understanding and influencing the determinants of physical activity is an important public health challenge. We used prospective data to examine the influence of individual, social, and environmental factors on physical activity behaviour, using regular running as the behavioural model. Methods: Over 500 middle-aged women completed two consecutive questionnaires in 2000 and 2002. Logistic regression analyses were used to examine factors predicting adoption of and regression from regular leisure-time running during the follow-up. Results: Women who frequently used behavioural change skills were more likely to adopt regular running (OR=4.0, CI=1.7-9.5). There was an interaction between the enjoyment of running and family support: those who rated enjoyment of running high and reported high family support were less likely to adopt running (OR= 0.2, CI = 0.1-0.5). Women who reported infrequent use of motives were more likely (OR = 3.3, CI = 1.6-6.9) to regress from regular running. There was an interaction between perceived health and the neighbourhood environment: those who perceived themselves to be in poor health and had an unattractive neighbourhood were more likely (OR = 2.7, CI = 0.9-8.3) to regress from regular running. Conclusions: Behavioural skills and enjoyment may be of particular importance for the adoption of regular activity; social support and an aesthetically attractive neighbourhood are likely to have a key role in encouraging maintenance. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictors of an antibiotic prescription by GPs for respiratory tract infections: a pilot

Background. Antibiotics are over-prescribed for respiratory tract infections in Australia. Objectives. The aim of this study was to describe the clinical predictors of GPs' prescribing of antibiotics. Methods. We used Clinical Judgment Analysis to study the responses of GPs to hypothetical paper-based vignettes of a 20-year-old with a respiratory tract infection. The nature of four symptoms and signs (colour of nasal mucous discharge; soreness of the throat; presence of fever; and whether any cough was productive of sputum) was varied and their effect on prescribing measured using logistic regression. Results. Twenty GPs participated. The nature of each symptom and sign significantly predicted prescribing of an antibiotic. Cough productive of yellow sputum; presence of sore throat; fever; and coloured nasal mucus increased the probability of an antibiotic being prescribed. Conclusions. GPs are influenced by clinical signs and symptoms to use antibiotics for respiratory infections for which there is poor evidence of efficacy from the literature.

Predictors of osteoarthritis(OA) improvement in patients treated with Hylan G-F for knee OA.

Aim of study: Different criteria for treatment response were explored to identify predictors of OA improvement. Analyses were based on data from a previously reported 1-year randomized controlled trial of appropriate care with or without hylan G-F 20 in patients with knee OA. Methods: Five definitions of ‘‘patient responder’’ from baseline to month 12 were examined: at least 20% reduction in WOMAC pain score; at least 20% reduction in WOMAC pain score and at least 20% reduction in either the WOMAC stiffness or function score; OARSI responder criteria (Propositions A and B) for intra-articular drugs; and OMERACT-OARSI responder criteria (Proposition D). As an a posteriori analysis, multivariable logistic regression models for each definition of patient responder were developed using a forward selection method. The following variables were defined prior to modeling and considered in the model along with two-way interactions: age (O65 years), BMI, gender, X-ray grade (0, I, II vs III, IV), co-morbidity (1 or 2 conditions vs 3 or more), duration of OA in study knee (years), previous surgery of study knee, hylan G-F 20 injection technique, WOMAC pain, stiffness and function, and treatment group. Results: Hylan G-F 20 was a predictor of improvement for all patient responder definitions P ! 0.001; odds of improvement were 2.7 or higher for patients in the hylan G-F 20 group compared to appropriate care without hylan G-F 20. For three of the five patient responder definitions, X-ray grade was a predictor of improvement (P ! 0.10; lower X-ray grade increased the odds of improvement). For four of the five patient responder definitions, duration of OA was a predictor of improvement (P ! 0.10; shorter duration of OA increased the odds of improvement). Conclusion: Analyses showed that appropriate care with hylan G-F 20 is the dominant predictor of patient improvement. While high grade structural damage does not preclude a response, patients who are targeted early in the disease process when less structural damage has occurred, may have a greater chance of improvement.

Algebra I and other predictors of high school dropout

This study investigated the relation of several predictors to high school dropout. The data, composed of records from a cohort of students ( N = 10,100) who entered ninth grade in 2001, were analyzed via logistic regression. The predictor variables were: (a) Algebra I grade, (b) Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test (FCAT) level, (c) language proficiency, (d) gender, (e) race/ethnicity, (f) Exceptional Student Education program membership, and (g) socio-economic status. The criterion was graduation status: graduated or dropped out. Algebra I grades were an important predictor of whether students drop out or graduate; students who failed this course were 4.1 times more likely to drop out than those who passed the course. Other significant predictors of high school dropout were language proficiency, Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test (FCAT) level, gender, and socio-economic status. The main focus of the study was on Algebra I as a predictor, but the study was not designed to discover the specific factors related to or underlying success in this course. Nevertheless, because Algebra I may be considered an important prerequisite for other major facets of the curriculum and because of its high relationship to high school dropout, a recommendation emerging from these findings is that districts address the issue of preventing failure in this course. Adequate support mechanisms for improving retention include addressing the students' readiness for enrolling in mathematics courses as well as curriculum improvements that enhance student readiness through such processes as remediation. Assuring that mathematics instruction is monitored and improved and that remedial programs are in place to facilitate content learning in all subjects for all students, but especially for those having limited English proficiency, are critical educational responsibilities.

Predictors of success: Medical Laboratory Associate in Science Degree Program

Hospitals and healthcare facilities in the United States are facing serious shortages of medical laboratory personnel, which, if not addressed, stand to negatively impact patient care. The problem is compounded by a reduction in the numbers of academic programs and resulting decrease in the number of graduates to keep up with the increase in industry demands. Given these challenges, the purpose of this study was to identify predictors of success for students in a selected 2-year Medical Laboratory Technology Associate in Science Degree Program. ^ This study examined five academic factors (College Placement Test Math and Reading scores, Cumulative GPA, Science GPA, and Professional [first semester laboratory courses] GPA) and, demographic data to see if any of these factors could predict program completion. The researcher examined academic records for a 10-year period (N =158). Using a retrospective model, the correlational analysis between the variables and completion revealed a significant relationship (p < .05) for CGPA, SGPA, CPT Math, and PGPA indicating that students with higher CGPA, SGPA, CPT Math, and PGPA were more likely to complete their degree in 2 years. Binary logistic regression analysis with the same academic variables revealed PGPA was the best predictor of program completion (p < .001). ^ Additionally, the findings in this study are consistent with the academic part of the Bean and Metzner Conceptual Model of Nontraditional Student Attrition which points to academic outcome variables such as GPA as affecting attrition. Thus, the findings in this study are important to students and educators in the field of Medical Laboratory Technology since PGPA is a predictor that can be used to provide early in-program intervention to the at-risk student, thus increasing the chances of successful timely completion.^

Outcomes and Predictors of Mortality in Neurosurgical Patients at Mbarara Regional Referral Hospital

Background:

Knowing the scope of neurosurgical disease at Mbarara Hospital is critical for infrastructure planning, education and training. In this study, we aim to evaluate the neurosurgical outcomes and identify predictors of mortality in order to potentiate platforms for more effective interventions and inform future research efforts at Mbarara Hospital.

Methods:

This is retrospective chart review including patients of all ages with a neurosurgical disease or injury presenting to Mbarara Regional Referral Hospital (MRRH) between January 2012 to September 2015. Descriptive statistics were presented. A univariate analysis was used to obtain the odds ratios of mortality and 95% confidence intervals. Predictors of mortality were determined using multivariate logistic regression model.

Results:

A total of 1876 charts were reviewed. Of these, 1854 (had complete data and were?) were included in the analysis. The overall mortality rate was 12.75%; the mortality rates among all persons who underwent a neurosurgical procedure was 9.72%, and was 13.68% among those who did not undergo a neurosurgical procedure. Over 50% of patients were between 19 and 40 years old and the majority of were males (76.10%). The overall median length of stay was 5 days. Of all neurosurgical admissions, 87% were trauma patients. In comparison to mild head injury, closed head injury and intracranial hematoma patients were 5 (95% CI: 3.77, 8.26) and 2.5 times (95% CI: 1.64,3.98) more likely to die respectively. Procedure and diagnostic imaging were independent negative predictors of mortality (P <0.05). While age, ICU admission, admission GCS were positive predictors of mortality (P <0.05).

Conclusions:

The majority of hospital admissions were TBI patients, with RTIs being the most common mechanism of injury. Age, ICU admission, admission GCS, diagnostic imaging and undergoing surgery were independent predictors of mortality. Going forward, further exploration of patient characteristics is necessary to fully describe mortality outcomes and implement resource appropriate interventions that ultimately improve morbidity and mortality.

An Investigation of Child and Adolescent Dental Sealant Predictors, NHANES 2011-2012

Objective: To examine sociodemographic and dental factors for associations with dental sealant placement in children and adolescents aged 6-18 years old. Methods: Secondary data analysis of 2011-2012 NHANES data was conducted. Multiple logistic regression models were used to assess relationships between predictor variables and sealant presence. Results: More than a third (37.1%) of children and adolescents have at least one sealant present; 67.9% of children compared with 40.4% of adolescents. Racial/ethnic differences exist, with Non-Hispanic black youth having the lowest odds of having sealants. Sealant placement odds vary by presence of dental home; the magnitude of the odds varies by age group. Those with untreated decay have lower odds of having sealants than those who do not have untreated decay (child OR: 2.6, 95% CI: 1.83-3.72; adolescent OR: 3.9, 95% CI: 2.59-6.07). Conclusion: Disparities exist in odds of sealant prevalence across racial/ethnic groups, income levels, and dental disease and visit characteristics. Further research is necessary to understand the reasons for these differences and to inform future interventions.

Fatores preditivos do maior número de estádios na cirurgia micrográfica de Mohs para o tratamento do carcinoma espinocelular da cabeça

FUNDAMENTOS: Os carcinomas espinocelulares da pele da cabeça têm como opção terapêutica mais segura a cirurgia micrográfica de Mohs, que apresenta os menores índices de recidiva e a máxima preservação tecidual. Características dos carcinomas espinocelulares podem estar relacionadas a maior número de estádios cirúrgicos. OBJETIVO: Definir características dos carcinomas espinocelulares que sejam preditoras de maior número de estádios na cirurgia de Mohs. MÉTODOS: Análise retrospectiva de 51 carcinomas espinocelulares da cabeça tratados pela cirurgia de Mohs para determinar fatores de risco de maior número de estádios. Foram analisados limites clínicos, morfologia, recidiva, histologia e tamanho, relacionando-os ao número de estádios cirúrgicos. A análise estatística foi realizada pelo teste exato de Fisher e regressão logística multivariada. RESULTADOS: Os carcinomas recidivados tiveram tendência a maior número de estádios (p=0,081). Os tumores com limites imprecisos apresentaram três vezes mais possibilidades de maior número de fases na análise da razão de chances. Esse achado foi compatível com dados da literatura, apesar de não ter sido estatisticamente significante. CONCLUSÃO: Características pré-operatórias dos carcinomas espinocelulares, como recidiva e limites imprecisos, apesar de não preditivas, indicaram tendência a maior número de estádios na cirurgia micrográfica de Mohs.

Predictive factors of non-deterioration of glucose tolerance following a 2-year behavioral intervention

Aim: To identify predictive factors associated with non-deterioration of glucose metabolism following a 2-year behavioral intervention in Japanese-Brazilians. Methods: 295 adults (59.7% women) without diabetes completed 2-year intervention program. Characteristics of those who maintained/improved glucose tolerance status (non-progressors) were compared with those who worsened (progressors) after the intervention. In logistic regression analysis, the condition of non-progressor was used as dependent variable. Results: Baseline characteristics of non-progressors (71.7%) and progressors were similar, except for the former being younger and having higher frequency of disturbed glucose tolerance and lower C-reactive protein (CRP). In logistic regression, non-deterioration of glucose metabolism was associated with disturbed glucose tolerance impaired fasting glucose or impaired glucose tolerance - (p < 0.001) and CRP levels <= 0.04 mg/dL (p = 0.01), adjusted for age and anthropometric variables. Changes in anthropometry and physical activity and achievement of weight and dietary goals after intervention were similar in subsets that worsened or not the glucose tolerance status. Conclusion: The whole sample presented a homogeneous behavior during the intervention. Lower CRP levels and diagnosis of glucose intolerance at baseline were predictors of non-deterioration of the glucose metabolism after a relatively simple intervention, independent of body adiposity.

Residuals for log-Burr XII regression models in survival analysis

In this paper, we compare three residuals to assess departures from the error assumptions as well as to detect outlying observations in log-Burr XII regression models with censored observations. These residuals can also be used for the log-logistic regression model, which is a special case of the log-Burr XII regression model. For different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulation studies are performed and the empirical distribution of each residual is displayed and compared with the standard normal distribution. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be straightforwardly extended to the modified martingale-type residual in log-Burr XII regression models with censored data.

Increased MMA concentration and body mass index are associated with spontaneous abortion in Brazilian women A pilot study

Background: The pathophysiology of spontaneous abortion is complex and may involve the interaction of genetic and environmental factors. We evaluated the predictors of spontaneous abortion in Brazilian pregnant women. The effects of age, gestational age. body mass index (BMI), cigarette smoking, alcohol ingestion, use of multivitamins and concentrations of vitamins (folate, cobalamin and vitamin 136) and vitamin-dependent metabolites were analyzed. Methods: Study population included 100 healthy women that attended pre-natal care in 2 health centers of Sao Paulo, Brazil, and in whom pregnancy outcome was known. Folate and cobalamin status was measured in blood specimens collected between 4 and 16 weeks. The genotypes for 8 gene polymorphisms were evaluated by PCR-RFLP. Results: Eighty-eight women had normal pregnancy outcome (Group 1), while 12 experienced a miscarriage after blood collection (Group 2). Increased methylmalonic acid (MMA) concentrations were found in Group 2 (median [25th-75th percentile]=274 [149-425] nmol/l) relative to Group 1 (138 [98-185]) (P<0.01). No differences between the groups were observed for serum cobalamin, serum or red cell folate, and serum total homocysteine or allele frequencies for 8 polymorphisms. In a conditional logistic regression analysis including age, gestational age, serum creatinine, MMA, cystathionine, body mass index (BMI), cigarette smoking, alcohol ingestion and use of multivitamins the risk of abortion was significantly associated with MMA (OR [95% CI] = 3.80 [1.36, 10.62] per quartile increase in MMA), BMI (OR [95% CI] = 5.49 [1.29,23.39] per quartile) and gestational age (OR [95% CI] = 0.10 [0.01, 0.77] per increase of interval in gestational age). Conclusions: Increased serum MMA and BMI concentrations are associated with spontaneous abortion in Brazilian women. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Psychological distress among female sex workers

The prevalence and correlates of psychological distress were examined in a sample of 171 female sex workers in Queensland. It was found that 28 per cent were above the GHQ-28 threshold for mild psychiatric morbidity, a rate that is not appreciably different from that of women in the general community. The sample included only eight street sex workers, all of whom reported significant distress. Logistic regression analyses showed that a history of injecting drug use, an early age at leaving home and wanting to leave the sex industry were independent predictors of poor mental health. Distressed sex workers reported fewer sexual health examinations and less consistent condom use with their clients than those who were not distressed.