Distance software: design and analysis of distance sampling surveys for estimating population size

1. Distance sampling is a widely used technique for estimating the size or density of biological populations. Many distance sampling designs and most analyses use the software Distance. 2. We briefly review distance sampling and its assumptions, outline the history, structure and capabilities of Distance, and provide hints on its use. 3. Good survey design is a crucial prerequisite for obtaining reliable results. Distance has a survey design engine, with a built-in geographic information system, that allows properties of different proposed designs to be examined via simulation, and survey plans to be generated. 4. A first step in analysis of distance sampling data is modeling the probability of detection. Distance contains three increasingly sophisticated analysis engines for this: conventional distance sampling, which models detection probability as a function of distance from the transect and assumes all objects at zero distance are detected; multiple-covariate distance sampling, which allows covariates in addition to distance; and mark–recapture distance sampling, which relaxes the assumption of certain detection at zero distance. 5. All three engines allow estimation of density or abundance, stratified if required, with associated measures of precision calculated either analytically or via the bootstrap. 6. Advanced analysis topics covered include the use of multipliers to allow analysis of indirect surveys (such as dung or nest surveys), the density surface modeling analysis engine for spatial and habitat-modeling, and information about accessing the analysis engines directly from other software. 7. Synthesis and applications. Distance sampling is a key method for producing abundance and density estimates in challenging field conditions. The theory underlying the methods continues to expand to cope with realistic estimation situations. In step with theoretical developments, state-of- the-art software that implements these methods is described that makes the methods accessible to practicing ecologists.

Large-Scale Population Analysis Challenges the Current Criteria for the Molecular Diagnosis of Fascioscapulohumeral Muscular Dystrophy

Facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy (FSHD) is a common hereditary myopathy causally linked to reduced numbers (<= 8) of 3.3 kilobase D4Z4 tandem repeats at 4q35. However, because individuals carrying D4Z4-reduced alleles and no FSHD and patients with FSHD and no short allele have been observed, additional markers have been proposed to support an FSHD molecular diagnosis. In particular a reduction in the number of D4Z4 elements combined with the 4A(159/161/168)PAS haplotype (which provides the possibility of expressing DUX4) is currently used as the genetic signature uniquely associated with FSHD. Here, we analyzed these DNA elements in more than 800 Italian and Brazilian samples of normal individuals unrelated to any FSHD patients. We find that 3% of healthy subjects carry alleles with a reduced number (4-8) of D4Z4 repeats on chromosome 4q and that one-third of these alleles, 1.3%, occur in combination with the 4A161PAS haplotype. We also systematically characterized the 4q35 haplotype in 253 unrelated FSHD patients. We find that only 127 of them (50.1%) carry alleles with 1-8 D4Z4 repeats associated with 4A161PAS, whereas the remaining FSHD probands carry different haplotypes or alleles with a greater number of D4Z4 repeats. The present study shows that the current genetic signature of FSHD is a common polymorphism and that only half of FSHD probands carry this molecular signature. Our results suggest that the genetic basis of FSHD, which is remarkably heterogeneous, should be revisited, because this has important implications for genetic counseling and prenatal diagnosis of at-risk families.

Mating system parameters at hierarchical levels of fruits, individuals and populations in the Brazilian insect-pollinated tropical tree, Tabebuia roseo-alba (Bignoniaceae)

For many tree species, mating system analyses have indicated potential variations in the selfing rate and paternity correlation among fruits within individuals, among individuals within populations, among populations, and from one flowering event to another. In this study, we used eight microsatellite markers to investigate mating systems at two hierarchical levels (fruits within individuals and individuals within populations) for the insect pollinated Neotropical tree Tabebuia roseo-alba. We found that T. roseo-alba has a mixed mating system with predominantly outcrossed mating. The outcrossing rates at the population level were similar across two T. roseo-alba populations; however, the rates varied considerably among individuals within populations. The correlated paternity results at different hierarchical levels showed that there is a high probability of shared paternal parentage when comparing seeds within fruits and among fruits within plants and full-sibs occur in much higher proportion within fruits than among fruits. Significant levels of fixation index were found in both populations and biparental inbreeding is believed to be the main cause of the observed inbreeding. The number of pollen donors contributing to mating was low. Furthermore, open-pollinated seeds varied according to relatedness, including half-sibs, full-sibs, self-sibs and self- half-sibs. In both populations, the effective population size within a family (seed-tree and its offspring) was lower than expected for panmictic populations. Thus, seeds for ex situ conservation genetics, progeny tests and reforestation must be collected from a large number of seed-trees to guarantee an adequate effective population in the sample.

El uso de la información genética en la gestión de la biodiversidad marina de islas oceánicas : el cangrejo moro "Grapsus adscensionis" en la Macaronesia

Máster Oficial en Gestión Costera

Population genomic tests of models of adaptive radiation in Lake Victoria Region cichlid fish

Adaptive radiation is usually thought to be associated with speciation, but the evolution of intraspecific polymorphisms without speciation is also possible. The radiation of cichlid fish in Lake Victoria (LV) is perhaps the most impressive example of a recent rapid adaptive radiation, with 600+ very young species. Key questions about its origin remain poorly characterized, such as the importance of speciation versus polymorphism, whether species persist on evolutionary time scales, and if speciation happens more commonly in small isolated or in large connected populations. We used 320 individuals from 105 putative species from Lakes Victoria, Edward, Kivu, Albert, Nabugabo and Saka, in a radiation-wide amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) genome scan to address some of these questions. We demonstrate pervasive signatures of speciation supporting the classical model of adaptive radiation associated with speciation. A positive relationship between the age of lakes and the average genomic differentiation of their species, and a significant fraction of molecular variance explained by above-species level taxonomy suggest the persistence of species on evolutionary time scales, with radiation through sequential speciation rather than a single starburst. Finally the large gene diversity retained from colonization to individual species in every radiation suggests large effective population sizes and makes speciation in small geographical isolates unlikely.

Population amalgamation and genetic variation: observations on artificially agglomerated tribal populations of Central and South America.

The interpretation of data on genetic variation with regard to the relative roles of different evolutionary factors that produce and maintain genetic variation depends critically on our assumptions concerning effective population size and the level of migration between neighboring populations. In humans, recent population growth and movements of specific ethnic groups across wide geographic areas mean that any theory based on assumptions of constant population size and absence of substructure is generally untenable. We examine the effects of population subdivision on the pattern of protein genetic variation in a total sample drawn from an artificial agglomerate of 12 tribal populations of Central and South America, analyzing the pooled sample as though it were a single population. Several striking findings emerge. (1) Mean heterozygosity is not sensitive to agglomeration, but the number of different alleles (allele count) is inflated, relative to neutral mutation/drift/equilibrium expectation. (2) The inflation is most serious for rare alleles, especially those which originally occurred as tribally restricted "private" polymorphisms. (3) The degree of inflation is an increasing function of both the number of populations encompassed by the sample and of the genetic divergence among them. (4) Treating an agglomerated population as though it were a panmictic unit of long standing can lead to serious biases in estimates of mutation rates, selection pressures, and effective population sizes. Current DNA studies indicate the presence of numerous genetic variants in human populations. The findings and conclusions of this paper are all fully applicable to the study of genetic variation at the DNA level as well.

Racial/ethnic disparities in colorectal cancer screening and survival in a large nationwide population-based cohort

Background. Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most commonly diagnosed cancer (excluding skin cancer) in both men and women in the United States, with an estimated 148,810 new cases and 49,960 deaths in 2008 (1). Racial/ethnic disparities have been reported across the CRC care continuum. Studies have documented racial/ethnic disparities in CRC screening (2-9), but only a few studies have looked at these differences in CRC screening over time (9-11). No studies have compared these trends in a population with CRC and without cancer. Additionally, although there is evidence suggesting that hospital factors (e.g. teaching hospital status and NCI designation) are associated with CRC survival (12-16), no studies have sought to explain the racial/ethnic differences in survival by looking at differences in socio-demographics, tumor characteristics, screening, co-morbidities, treatment, as well as hospital characteristics. ^ Objectives and Methods. The overall goals of this dissertation were to describe the patterns and trends of racial/ethnic disparities in CRC screening (i.e. fecal occult blood test (FOBT), sigmoidoscopy (SIG) and colonoscopy (COL)) and to determine if racial/ethnic disparities in CRC survival are explained by differences in socio-demographic, tumor characteristics, screening, co-morbidities, treatment, and hospital factors. These goals were accomplished in a two-paper format.^ In Paper 1, "Racial/Ethnic Disparities and Trends in Colorectal Cancer Screening in Medicare Beneficiaries with Colorectal Cancer and without Cancer in SEER Areas, 1992-2002", the study population consisted of 50,186 Medicare beneficiaries diagnosed with CRC from 1992 to 2002 and 62,917 Medicare beneficiaries without cancer during the same time period. Both cohorts were aged 67 to 89 years and resided in 16 Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) regions of the United States. Screening procedures between 6 months and 3 years prior to the date of diagnosis for CRC patients and prior to the index date for persons without cancer were identified in Medicare claims. The crude and age-gender-adjusted percentages and odds ratios of receiving FOBT, SIG, or COL were calculated. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess race/ethnicity on the odds of receiving CRC screening over time.^ Paper 2, "Racial/Ethnic Disparities in Colorectal Cancer Survival: To what extent are racial/ethnic disparities in survival explained by racial differences in socio-demographics, screening, co-morbidities, treatment, tumor or hospital characteristics", included a cohort of 50,186 Medicare beneficiaries diagnosed with CRC from 1992 to 2002 and residing in 16 SEER regions of the United States which were identified in the SEER-Medicare linked database. Survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox proportional hazard modeling was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) of mortality and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI).^ Results. The screening analysis demonstrated racial/ethnic disparities in screening over time among the cohort without cancer. From 1992 to 1995, Blacks and Hispanics were less likely than Whites to receive FOBT (OR=0.75, 95% CI: 0.65-0.87; OR=0.50, 95% CI: 0.34-0.72, respectively) but their odds of screening increased from 2000 to 2002 (OR=0.79, 95% CI: 0.72-0.85; OR=0.67, 95% CI: 0.54-0.75, respectively). Blacks and Hispanics were less likely than Whites to receive SIG from 1992 to 1995 (OR=0.75, 95% CI: 0.57-0.98; OR=0.29, 95% CI: 0.12-0.71, respectively), but their odds of screening increased from 2000 to 2002 (OR=0.79, 95% CI: 0.68-0.93; OR=0.50, 95% CI: 0.35-0.72, respectively).^ The survival analysis showed that Blacks had worse CRC-specific survival than Whites (HR: 1.33, 95% CI: 1.23-1.44), but this was reduced for stages I-III disease after full adjustment for socio-demographic, tumor characteristics, screening, co-morbidities, treatment and hospital characteristics (aHR=1.24, 95% CI: 1.14-1.35). Socioeconomic status, tumor characteristics, treatment and co-morbidities contributed to the reduction in hazard ratios between Blacks and Whites with stage I-III disease. Asians had better survival than Whites before (HR: 0.73, 95% CI: 0.64-0.82) and after (aHR: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.70-0.92) adjusting for all predictors for stage I-III disease. For stage IV, both Asians and Hispanics had better survival than Whites, and after full adjustment, survival improved (aHR=0.73, 95% CI: 0.63-0.84; aHR=0.74, 95% CI: 0.61-0.92, respectively).^ Conclusion. Screening disparities remain between Blacks and Whites, and Hispanics and Whites, but have decreased in recent years. Future studies should explore other factors that may contribute to screening disparities, such as physician recommendations and language/cultural barriers in this and younger populations.^ There were substantial racial/ethnic differences in CRC survival among older Whites, Blacks, Asians and Hispanics. Co-morbidities, SES, tumor characteristics, treatment and other predictor variables contributed to, but did not fully explain the CRC survival differences between Blacks and Whites. Future research should examine the role of quality of care, particularly the benefit of treatment and post-treatment surveillance, in racial disparities in survival.^

Gender differences in colorectal cancer screening and incidence in large nationwide, population-based cohorts

Background. A few studies have reported gender differences along the colorectal cancer (CRC) continuum but none has done so longitudinally to compare a cancer and a non-cancer populations.^ Objectives and Methods. To examine gender differences in colorectal cancer screening (CRCS); to examine trends in gender differences in CRC screening among two groups of patients (Medicare beneficiaries with and without cancer); to examine gender differences in CRC incidence; and to examine for any differences over time. In Paper 1, the study population consisted of men and women, ages 67–89 years, with CRC (73,666) or without any cancer (39,006), residing in 12 U.S. Surveillance Epidemiology and End-Results (SEER) regions. Crude and age-adjusted percentages and odds ratios of receiving fecal occult blood test (FOBT), sigmoidoscopy (SIG), or colonoscopy (COL) were calculated. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess gender on the odds of receiving CRC screening over time.^ In Paper 2, age-adjusted incidence rates and proportions over time were reported across race, CRC subsite, CRC stage and SEER region for 373,956 patients, ages 40+ years, residing in 9 SEER regions and diagnosed with malignant CRC. ^ Results. Overall, women had higher CRC screening rates than men and screening rates in general were higher in the SEER sample of persons with CRC diagnosis. Significant temporal divergence in FOBT screening was observed between men and women in both cohorts. Although the largest temporal increases in screening rates were found for COL, especially among the cohort with CRC, little change in the gender gap was observed over time. Receipt of FOBT was significantly associated with female gender especially in the period of full Medicare coverage. Receipt of COL was also significantly associated with male gender, especially in the period of limited Medicare coverage.^ Overall, approximately equal numbers of men (187,973) and women (185,983) were diagnosed with malignant CRC. Men had significantly higher age-adjusted CRC incidence rates than women across all categories of age, race, subsite, stage and SEER region even though rates declined in all categories over time. Significant moderate increases in rate difference occurred among 40-59 year olds; significant reductions occurred among patients age 70+, within subsite rectum, unstaged and distant stage CRC, and eastern and western SEER regions. ^ Conclusions. Persistent gender differences in CRC incidence across time may have implications for gender-based interventions that take age into consideration. A shift toward proximal cancer was observed over time for both genders, but the high proportion of men who develop rectal cancer suggests that a greater proportion of men may need to be targeted with newer screening methods such as fecal DNA or COL. Although previous reports have documented higher CRC screening among men, higher incidence of CRC observed among men suggests that higher risk categories of men are probably not being reached. FOBT utilization rates among women have increased over time and the gender gap has widened between 1998 and 2005. COL utilization is associated with male gender but the differences over time are small.^

Deleterious mutations destabilize ribosomal RNA in endosymbiotic bacteria

In populations that are small and asexual, mutations with slight negative effects on fitness will drift to fixation more often than in large or sexual populations in which they will be eliminated by selection. If such mutations occur in substantial numbers, the combined effects of long-term asexuality and small population size may result in substantial accumulation of mildly deleterious substitutions. Prokaryotic endosymbionts of animals that are transmitted maternally for very long periods are effectively asexual and experience smaller effective population size than their free-living relatives. The contrast between such endosymbionts and related free-living bacteria allows us to test whether a population structure imposing frequent bottlenecks and asexuality does lead to an accumulation of slightly deleterious substitutions. Here we show that several independently derived insect endosymbionts, each with a long history of maternal transmission, have accumulated destabilizing base substitutions in the highly conserved 16S rRNA. Stabilities of Domain I of this subunit are 15–25% lower in endosymbionts than in closely related free-living bacteria. By mapping destabilizing substitutions onto a reconstructed phylogeny, we show that decreased ribosomal stability has evolved separately in each endosymbiont lineage. Our phylogenetic approach allows us to demonstrate statistical significance for this pattern: becoming endosymbiotic predictably results in decreased stability of rRNA secondary structure.

Stochastic processes strongly influence HIV-1 evolution during suboptimal protease-inhibitor therapy

It has long been assumed that HIV-1 evolution is best described by deterministic evolutionary models because of the large population size. Recently, however, it was suggested that the effective population size (Ne) may be rather small, thereby allowing chance to influence evolution, a situation best described by a stochastic evolutionary model. To gain experimental evidence supporting one of the evolutionary models, we investigated whether the development of resistance to the protease inhibitor ritonavir affected the evolution of the env gene. Sequential serum samples from five patients treated with ritonavir were used for analysis of the protease gene and the V3 domain of the env gene. Multiple reverse transcription–PCR products were cloned, sequenced, and used to construct phylogenetic trees and to calculate the genetic variation and Ne. Genotypic resistance to ritonavir developed in all five patients, but each patient displayed a unique combination of mutations, indicating a stochastic element in the development of ritonavir resistance. Furthermore, development of resistance induced clear bottleneck effects in the env gene. The mean intrasample genetic variation, which ranged from 1.2% to 5.7% before treatment, decreased significantly (P < 0.025) during treatment. In agreement with these findings, Ne was estimated to be very small (500–15,000) compared with the total HIV-1 RNA copy number. This study combines three independent observations, strong population bottlenecking, small Ne, and selection of different combinations of protease-resistance mutations, all of which indicate that HIV-1 evolution is best described by a stochastic evolutionary model.

Social transmission of reproductive behavior increases frequency of inherited disorders in a young-expanding population

The observation of high frequencies of certain inherited disorders in the population of Saguenay–Lac Saint Jean can be explained in terms of the variance and the correlation of effective family size (EFS) from one generation to the next. We have shown this effect by using the branching process approach with real demographic data. When variance of EFS is included in the model, despite its profound effect on mutant allele frequency, any mutant introduced in the population never reaches the known carrier frequencies (between 0.035 and 0.05). It is only when the EFS correlation between generations is introduced into the model that we can explain the rise of the mutant alleles. This correlation is described by a c parameter that reflects the dependency of children’s EFS on their parents’ EFS. The c parameter can be considered to reflect social transmission of demographic behavior. We show that such social transmission dramatically reduces the effective population size. This could explain particular distributions in allele frequencies and unusually high frequency of certain inherited disorders in some human populations.

Maximum likelihood estimation of a migration matrix and effective population sizes in n subpopulations by using a coalescent approach

A maximum likelihood estimator based on the coalescent for unequal migration rates and different subpopulation sizes is developed. The method uses a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach to investigate possible genealogies with branch lengths and with migration events. Properties of the new method are shown by using simulated data from a four-population n-island model and a source–sink population model. Our estimation method as coded in migrate is tested against genetree; both programs deliver a very similar likelihood surface. The algorithm converges to the estimates fairly quickly, even when the Markov chain is started from unfavorable parameters. The method was used to estimate gene flow in the Nile valley by using mtDNA data from three human populations.