Forecasting US output growth using leading indicators: an appraisal using MIDAS models

We evaluate the predictive power of leading indicators for output growth at horizons up to 1 year. We use the MIDAS regression approach as this allows us to combine multiple individual leading indicators in a parsimonious way and to directly exploit the information content of the monthly series to predict quarterly output growth. When we use real-time vintage data, the indicators are found to have significant predictive ability, and this is further enhanced by the use of monthly data on the quarter at the time the forecast is made

Adaptive communication: languages with more non-native speakers tend to have fewer word forms

Explaining the diversity of languages across the world is one of the central aims of typological, historical, and evolutionary linguistics. We consider the effect of language contact-the number of non-native speakers a language has-on the way languages change and evolve. By analysing hundreds of languages within and across language families, regions, and text types, we show that languages with greater levels of contact typically employ fewer word forms to encode the same information content (a property we refer to as lexical diversity). Based on three types of statistical analyses, we demonstrate that this variance can in part be explained by the impact of non-native speakers on information encoding strategies. Finally, we argue that languages are information encoding systems shaped by the varying needs of their speakers. Language evolution and change should be modeled as the co-evolution of multiple intertwined adaptive systems: On one hand, the structure of human societies and human learning capabilities, and on the other, the structure of language.

Joint data assimilation of satellite reflectance and net ecosystem exchange data constrains ecosystem carbon fluxes at a high-elevation subalpine forest

We utilized an ecosystem process model (SIPNET, simplified photosynthesis and evapotranspiration model) to estimate carbon fluxes of gross primary productivity and total ecosystem respiration of a high-elevation coniferous forest. The data assimilation routine incorporated aggregated twice-daily measurements of the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) and satellite-based reflectance measurements of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fAPAR) on an eight-day timescale. From these data we conducted a data assimilation experiment with fifteen different combinations of available data using twice-daily NEE, aggregated annual NEE, eight-day f AP AR, and average annual fAPAR. Model parameters were conditioned on three years of NEE and fAPAR data and results were evaluated to determine the information content from the different combinations of data streams. Across the data assimilation experiments conducted, model selection metrics such as the Bayesian Information Criterion and Deviance Information Criterion obtained minimum values when assimilating average annual fAPAR and twice-daily NEE data. Application of wavelet coherence analyses showed higher correlations between measured and modeled fAPAR on longer timescales ranging from 9 to 12 months. There were strong correlations between measured and modeled NEE (R2, coefficient of determination, 0.86), but correlations between measured and modeled eight-day fAPAR were quite poor (R2 = −0.94). We conclude that this inability to determine fAPAR on eight-day timescale would improve with the considerations of the radiative transfer through the plant canopy. Modeled fluxes when assimilating average annual fAPAR and annual NEE were comparable to corresponding results when assimilating twice-daily NEE, albeit at a greater uncertainty. Our results support the conclusion that for this coniferous forest twice-daily NEE data are a critical measurement stream for the data assimilation. The results from this modeling exercise indicate that for this coniferous forest, average annuals for satellite-based fAPAR measurements paired with annual NEE estimates may provide spatial detail to components of ecosystem carbon fluxes in proximity of eddy covariance towers. Inclusion of other independent data streams in the assimilation will also reduce uncertainty on modeled values.

Methane cross-validation between three Fourier Transform Spectrometers: SCISAT ACE-FTS, GOSAT TANSO-FTS, and ground-based FTS measurements in the Canadian high Arctic

We present cross-validation of remote sensing measurements of methane profiles in the Canadian high Arctic. Accurate and precise measurements of methane are essential to understand quantitatively its role in the climate system and in global change. Here, we show a cross-validation between three datasets: two from spaceborne instruments and one from a ground-based instrument. All are Fourier Transform Spectrometers (FTSs). We consider the Canadian SCISAT Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE)-FTS, a solar occultation infrared spectrometer operating since 2004, and the thermal infrared band of the Japanese Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) Thermal And Near infrared Sensor for carbon Observation (TANSO)-FTS, a nadir/off-nadir scanning FTS instrument operating at solar and terrestrial infrared wavelengths, since 2009. The ground-based instrument is a Bruker 125HR Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectrometer, measuring mid-infrared solar absorption spectra at the Polar Environment Atmospheric Research Laboratory (PEARL) Ridge Lab at Eureka, Nunavut (80° N, 86° W) since 2006. For each pair of instruments, measurements are collocated within 500 km and 24 h. An additional criterion based on potential vorticity values was found not to significantly affect differences between measurements. Profiles are regridded to a common vertical grid for each comparison set. To account for differing vertical resolutions, ACE-FTS measurements are smoothed to the resolution of either PEARL-FTS or TANSO-FTS, and PEARL-FTS measurements are smoothed to the TANSO-FTS resolution. Differences for each pair are examined in terms of profile and partial columns. During the period considered, the number of collocations for each pair is large enough to obtain a good sample size (from several hundred to tens of thousands depending on pair and configuration). Considering full profiles, the degrees of freedom for signal (DOFS) are between 0.2 and 0.7 for TANSO-FTS and between 1.5 and 3 for PEARL-FTS, while ACE-FTS has considerably more information (roughly 1° of freedom per altitude level). We take partial columns between roughly 5 and 30 km for the ACE-FTS–PEARL-FTS comparison, and between 5 and 10 km for the other pairs. The DOFS for the partial columns are between 1.2 and 2 for PEARL-FTS collocated with ACE-FTS, between 0.1 and 0.5 for PEARL-FTS collocated with TANSO-FTS or for TANSO-FTS collocated with either other instrument, while ACE-FTS has much higher information content. For all pairs, the partial column differences are within ± 3 × 1022 molecules cm−2. Expressed as median ± median absolute deviation (expressed in absolute or relative terms), these differences are 0.11 ± 9.60 × 10^20 molecules cm−2 (0.012 ± 1.018 %) for TANSO-FTS–PEARL-FTS, −2.6 ± 2.6 × 10^21 molecules cm−2 (−1.6 ± 1.6 %) for ACE-FTS–PEARL-FTS, and 7.4 ± 6.0 × 10^20 molecules cm−2 (0.78 ± 0.64 %) for TANSO-FTS–ACE-FTS. The differences for ACE-FTS–PEARL-FTS and TANSO-FTS–PEARL-FTS partial columns decrease significantly as a function of PEARL partial columns, whereas the range of partial column values for TANSO-FTS–ACE-FTS collocations is too small to draw any conclusion on its dependence on ACE-FTS partial columns.

Mobile systems for monitoring Parkinson's disease

A challenge for the clinical management of Parkinson's disease (PD) is the large within- and between-patient variability in symptom profiles as well as the emergence of motor complications which represent a significant source of disability in patients. This thesis deals with the development and evaluation of methods and systems for supporting the management of PD by using repeated measures, consisting of subjective assessments of symptoms and objective assessments of motor function through fine motor tests (spirography and tapping), collected by means of a telemetry touch screen device. One aim of the thesis was to develop methods for objective quantification and analysis of the severity of motor impairments being represented in spiral drawings and tapping results. This was accomplished by first quantifying the digitized movement data with time series analysis and then using them in data-driven modelling for automating the process of assessment of symptom severity. The objective measures were then analysed with respect to subjective assessments of motor conditions. Another aim was to develop a method for providing comparable information content as clinical rating scales by combining subjective and objective measures into composite scores, using time series analysis and data-driven methods. The scores represent six symptom dimensions and an overall test score for reflecting the global health condition of the patient. In addition, the thesis presents the development of a web-based system for providing a visual representation of symptoms over time allowing clinicians to remotely monitor the symptom profiles of their patients. The quality of the methods was assessed by reporting different metrics of validity, reliability and sensitivity to treatment interventions and natural PD progression over time. Results from two studies demonstrated that the methods developed for the fine motor tests had good metrics indicating that they are appropriate to quantitatively and objectively assess the severity of motor impairments of PD patients. The fine motor tests captured different symptoms; spiral drawing impairment and tapping accuracy related to dyskinesias (involuntary movements) whereas tapping speed related to bradykinesia (slowness of movements). A longitudinal data analysis indicated that the six symptom dimensions and the overall test score contained important elements of information of the clinical scales and can be used to measure effects of PD treatment interventions and disease progression. A usability evaluation of the web-based system showed that the information presented in the system was comparable to qualitative clinical observations and the system was recognized as a tool that will assist in the management of patients.

Volatilidade implícita das opções de ações: uma análise sobre a volatilidade futura

O objetivo desse trabalho é avaliar a capacidade de previsão do mercado sobre a volatilidade futura a partir das informações obtidas nas opções de Petrobras e Vale, além de fazer uma comparação com modelos do tipo GARCH e EWMA. Estudos semelhantes foram realizados no mercado de ações americano: Seja com uma cesta de ações selecionadas ou com relação ao índice S&P 100, as conclusões foram diversas. Se Canina e Figlewski (1993) a “volatilidade implícita tem virtualmente nenhuma correlação com a volatilidade futura”, Christensen e Prabhala (1998) concluem que a volatilidade implícita é um bom preditor da volatilidade futura. No mercado brasileiro, Andrade e Tabak (2001) utilizam opções de dólar para estudar o conteúdo da informação no mercado de opções. Além disso, comparam o poder de previsão da volatilidade implícita com modelos de média móvel e do tipo GARCH. Os autores concluem que a volatilidade implícita é um estimador viesado da volatilidade futura mas de desempenho superior se comparada com modelos estatísticos. Gabe e Portugal (2003) comparam a volatilidade implícita das opções de Telemar (TNLP4) com modelos estatísticos do tipo GARCH. Nesse caso, volatilidade implícita tambem é um estimador viesado, mas os modelos estatísticos além de serem bons preditores, não apresentaram viés. Os dados desse trabalho foram obtidos ao longo de 2008 e início de 2009, optando-se por observações intradiárias das volatilidades implícitas das opções “no dinheiro” de Petrobrás e Vale dos dois primeiros vencimentos. A volatidade implícita observada no mercado para ambos os ativos contém informação relevante sobre a volatilidade futura, mas da mesma forma que em estudos anteriores, mostou-se viesada. No caso específico de Petrobrás, o modelo GARCH se mostrou um previsor eficiente da volatilidade futura

The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices economic activity

We use the information content in the decisions of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the United States. We identify the coincident index by assuming that the coincident variables have a common cycle with the unobserved state of the economy, and that the NBER business cycle dates signify the turning points in the unobserved state. This model allows us to estimate our coincident index as a linear combination of the coincident series. We establish that our index performs better than other currently popular coincident indices of economic activity.

The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices economic activity

We use the information content in the decisions of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the United States. We identify the coincident index by assuming that the coincident variables have a common cycle with the unobserved state of the economy, and that the NBER business cycle dates signify the turning points in the unobserved state. This model allows us to estimate our coincident index as a linear combination of the coincident series. We establish that our index performs better than other currently popular coincident indices of economic activity.

The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices economic activity

We use the information content in the decisions of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the United States. We identify the coincident index by assuming that the coincident variables have a common cycle with the unobserved state of the economy, and that the NBER business cycle dates signify the turning points in the unobserved state. This model allows us to estimate our coincident index as a linear combination of the coincident series. We compare the performance of our index with other currently popular coincident indices of economic activity.

Caracterização morfológica, citogenética e molecular de uma população de tangerineiras híbridas de 'Clementina fina' (Citrus clementina Hort. ex Tan.) e 'Montenegrina' (Citrus deliciosa Ten.)

A produção citrícola se encontra dispersa por todos os continentes e no Brasil, os citros são a produção frutícola de maior volume de produção. A produção de citros de mesa, como as tangerinas, possibilita ao produtor obter maior valor pelo seu produto. O mercado consumidor é ávido por novas variedades e para tanto, um programa de melhoramento deve estar sempre em busca de genótipos que atendam ao mercado consumidor, bem como a cadeia produtiva. Na Estação Experimental Agronômica da Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, está localizada uma população de tangerineiras híbridas oriundas do cruzamento da tangerineira ‘Clementina Fina’ (Citrus clementina Hort. ex Tan.) e ‘Montenegrina’ (Citrus deliciosa Ten.) a qual foi caracterizada neste estudo, avaliando-se características morfológicas de acordo com os descritores propostos pelo International Board for Plant Genetic Resources, além da identificação da época de maturação, viabilidade de pólen, número cromossômico e caracterização molecular, utilizando marcadores do tipo microssatélites. Através da análise morfológica foi possível distinguir todas as 96 plantas avaliadas, porém não foi possível agrupar a F1 em grupos distintos de cada um dos genitores. A época de maturação de frutos das plantas se concentra entre a primeira quinzena de abril até a primeira quinzena de agosto. Todas as plantas analisadas apresentaram um alto grau de viabilidade de pólen, variando entre 79,04 e 98,08 %. Todas as plantas avaliadas são diplóides com um número cromossômico de 2n=18. Utilizando 12 pares de primers de microssatélites foi possível diferenciar 90 acessos do estudo, e agrupar a F1 em indivíduos mais próximos do genitor feminino e do genitor masculino. O PIC (Conteúdo de Informação de Polimorfismo) dos primers variou de 0,27 a 0,65. Não foi possível estabelecer uma relação entre a caracterização utilizando marcadores morfológicos e a caracterização utilizando marcadores moleculares.

Distinctively variable sequence-based nuclear DNA markers for multilocus phylogeography of the soybean- and rice-infecting fungal pathogen Rhizoctonia solani AG-1 IA

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Development and characterization of 14 microsatellite loci from an enriched genomic library of Eucalyptus camaldulensis Dehnh

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Genetic variability of Herpailurus yagouaroundi, Puma concolor and Panthera onca (Mammalia, Felidae) studied using Felis catus microsatellites

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Development of 22 Polymorphic Microsatellite Loci for the Critically Endangered Morato's Digger Toad, Proceratophrys moratoi

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Twelve polymorphic microsatellite loci developed and optimized from the Leptodactylus chaquensis

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)