A discussion of “Estimating the historical and future probabilities of large terrorist events'' by Aaron Clauset and Ryan Woodard

The terrorist attacks in the United States on September 11, 2001 appeared to be a harbinger of increased terrorism and violence in the 21st century, bringing terrorism and political violence to the forefront of public discussion. Questions about these events abound, and “Estimating the Historical and Future Probabilities of Large Scale Terrorist Event” [Clauset and Woodard (2013)] asks specifically, “how rare are large scale terrorist events?” and, in general, encourages discussion on the role of quantitative methods in terrorism research and policy and decision-making. Answering the primary question raises two challenges. The first is identify- ing terrorist events. The second is finding a simple yet robust model for rare events that has good explanatory and predictive capabilities. The challenges of identifying terrorist events is acknowledged and addressed by reviewing and using data from two well-known and reputable sources: the Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism-RAND database (MIPT-RAND) [Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism] and the Global Terror- ism Database (GTD) [National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) (2012), LaFree and Dugan (2007)]. Clauset and Woodard (2013) provide a detailed discussion of the limitations of the data and the models used, in the context of the larger issues surrounding terrorism and policy.

Working together-apart : exploring the relationships between formal and informal care networks for people dying at home

Introduction Informal caring networks contribute significantly to end-of-life (EOL) care in the community. However, to ensure that these networks are sustainable, and unpaid carers are not exploited, primary carers need permission and practical assistance to gather networks together and negotiate the help they need. Our aim in this study was to develop an understanding of how formal and informal carers work together when care is being provided in a dying person's home. We were particularly interested in formal providers’ perceptions and knowledge of informal networks of care and in identifying barriers to the networks working together. Methods Qualitative methods, informed by an interpretive approach, were used. In February-July 2012, 10 focus groups were conducted in urban, regional, and rural Australia comprising 88 participants. Findings Our findings show that formal providers are aware, and supportive, of the vital role informal networks play in the care of the dying at home. A number of barriers to formal and informal networks working together more effectively were identified. In particular, we found that the Australian policy of health-promoting palliative is not substantially translating to practice. Conclusion Combinations of formal and informal caring networks are essential to support people and their primary carers. Formal service providers do little to establish, support, or maintain the informal networks although there is much goodwill and scope for them to do so. Further re-orientation towards a health-promoting palliative care and community capacity building approach is suggested.

Discussion of : constructing summary statistics for approximate Bayesian computation: semi-automatic approximate Bayesian computation

This is a discussion of the journal article: "Construcing summary statistics for approximate Bayesian computation: semi-automatic approximate Bayesian computation". The article and discussion have appeared in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology).

Skating on Olympic ice: working with winter Olympians

Working as a sport psychologist with Olympic athletes requires a clear understanding of a broad range of multifaceted individual, group, situational, and environmental issues, all of which have the ability to impact upon performance. This article provides an overview of some of the common yet vital issues that have been observed to arise when working with Olympic Winter Games athletes and teams; what to expect, how to recognise them when they occur, and why they are important to prepare for in the context of supporting athletes to achieve the best performance they can at an Olympic Games. Aimed at the emerging sport psychology practitioner, discussion of issues such as performing under pressure, dealing with distractions, adjusting to external factors, team culture, and servicing models creates an informal set of “practical guidelines” based upon real-world experiences that can also be applied to other major sporting competitions.

Histories of user-generated content : between formal and informal media economies

Debates about user-generated content (UGC) often depend on a contrast with its normative opposite, the professionally produced content that is supported and sustained by commercial media businesses or public organisations. UGC is seen to appear within or in opposition to professional media, often as a disruptive, creative, change-making force. Our suggestion is to position UGC not in opposition to professional or "producer media", or in hybridised forms of subjective combination with it (the so-called "pro-sumer" or "pro-am" system), but in relation to different criteria, namely the formal and informal elements in media industries. In this article, we set out a framework for the comparative and historical analysis of UGC systems and their relations with other formal and informal media activity, illustrated with examples ranging from games to talkback radio. We also consider the policy implications that emerge from a historicised reading of UGC as a recurring dynamic within media industries, rather than a manifestation of consumer agency specific to digital cultures.

Mothers influencing mothers : the use of virtual discussion boards and their influence on consumption

Mothers represent a large segment of marketing dollars and traditionally, word of mouth was spread from mother to mother in a face-to-face environment, such as the school car park or mother’s groups. As families have evolved, so too has the traditional mother’s group. Limited academic studies have explored online mothers’ groups and how they impact on consumption. In order to explore the nature of this online influence and how mothers are influenced by other mothers online, a study was conducted through the use of observation and qualitative questioning. The data suggests that trust between mothers is generally high and mothers tend to trust the opinions of other mothers when they recommend a product. This is similar in other reference group contexts, however, mothers are communicating about brands frequently and influencing behaviour. This leads to a number of managerial and theoretical implications discussed in the paper.

Nowhere to hide: informal disease surveillance networks tracing state behaviour

Since the revisions to the International Health Regulations (IHR) in 2005, much attention has turned to how states, particularly developing states, will address core capacity requirements attached to the revised IHR. Primarily, how will states strengthen their capacity to identify and verify public health emergencies of international concern (PHEIC)? Another important but under-examined aspect of the revised IHR is the empowerment of the World Health Organization (WHO) to act upon non-governmental reports of disease outbreaks. The revised IHR potentially marks a new chapter in the powers of ‘disease intelligence’ and how the WHO may press states to verify an outbreak event. This article seeks to understand whether internet surveillance response programs (ISRPs) are effective in ‘naming and shaming’ states into reporting disease outbreaks.

Formal home health care, informal care, and family decision making

We use the 1993 wave of the Assets and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old (AHEAD) data set to estimate a game-theoretic model of families' decisions concerning the provision of informal and formal care for elderly individuals. The outcome is the Nash equilibrium where each family member jointly determines her consumption, transfers for formal care, and allocation of time to informal care, market work, and leisure. We use the estimates to decompose the effects of adult children's opportunity costs, quality of care, and caregiving burden on their propensities to provide informal care. We also simulate the effects of a broad range of policies of current interest. © (2009) by the Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

Discussion on full-scale internal pressure measurements

The wind loading on most structural elements is made up of both an external and internal pressure. Internal pressures are also important for the design of naturally ventilated buildings. The internal pressure is the interaction between the external pressure propagating through the building envelope and any internal plant causing building pressurization. Although the external pressure field can be well defined through a series of wind tunnel tests, modeling complexities makes accurate prediction of the internal pressure difficult. For commercial testing for the determination of design cladding pressures, an internal pressure coefficient is generally assumed from wind loading standards. Several theories regarding the propagation of internal pressures through single and multiple dominant openings have been proposed for small and large flexible buildings (Harris (1990), Holmes, (1979), Liu & Saathoff (1981 ), Vickery (1986, 1994), Vickery & Bloxham (1992), Vickery & Georgiou (1991))...

Discussion on the wind climate of Kuwait and Dubai

Historical wind data for Kuwait and Dubai have been analysed to determine the design wind speed for the region. Kuwait and Dubai are located near the northern and southern end of the Persian Gulf respectively. The winds in this region just north of the Tropic of Capricorn are dominated by the Shamal, literally 'north' in Arabic. The winds have traditional Bedouin names such as Al-Haffar (the driller), and Barih Thorayya (morning star). The Al-Dabaran is generally the strongest Shamal in late summer, and can last up to 40 days bringing sand and duststorms.

Succession law keeping pace with changes in technology and community expectations – informal wills

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to provide insights into recent developments in the way the law of succession allows people to use new technologies to document their testamentary intentions in an informal way. Design/methodology/approach – This article considers one area in which the law has arguably kept good pace with advances in society’s expectations and technological change – the law of succession. This article examines the legislative reforms in Queensland and other jurisdictions permitting the recognition of informal wills and the decided cases in the area. In particular, the article examines the decision in a Queensland Supreme Court case in which the court recognised the validity of a will made on an iPhone. Research limitations/implications – This is a doctrinal analysis, not an empirical study, and accordingly is limited to providing details specific to the legislation and the court cases selected.

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander university students conceptions of formal learning and experiences of informal learning

This paper describes an investigation of conceptions of learning held by 22 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander students from three universities in Queensland, Australia. Other areas investigated were students' experiences of informal learning, their reasons for studying and the strategies they used to learn. Research into conceptions of learning is gaining impetus and current beliefs include the premise that approaches to learning adopted by university students, and hence learning outcomes, are closely related to their conceptions of learning. There is substantial research focused on Aboriginal learning styles in early childhood and primary school which indicates that Aboriginal children prefer to learn in a practical way as well as through observation and imitation and trial and error. Very little research has focused specifically on Aboriginal university students' conceptions of learning. Results of this study found that these students view and approach formal university learning in much the same way as other university students and most hold quantitative conceptions of learning. The most interesting result was the difference between students' conceptions of formal learning and their experiences of informal learning. Many students' experiences of informal learning were grounded in practical activities or exhibited a cultural focus, however, most formal learning is not dependent upon practical or cultural knowledge. It is proposed that formal learning for Indigenous students recognise and include an Indigenous perspective such as integrating, where appropriate, practical strategies for learning. We also suggest that Indigenous students be helped to develop conceptions that will enable them to learn formal, theoretical material successfully.

Learning in formal and informal contexts : conceptions and strategies of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander university students

Research suggests that students' approaches to learning and hence learning outcomes are closely related to their conceptions of learning. This paper describes an investigation into conceptions of formal learning held by 22 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander students from three Australian universities in Queensland; categories of informal learning, reasons for studying and strategies used to learn were also investigated. The attrition rate for these students in tertiary education is higher than that of any other group of students. The main aim of this study was to determine their conceptions of learning in order to provide information that might facilitate instruction more suited to their needs in order to address the high attrition rate. Results showed that these students view and approach university learning in much the same way as other university students. It was also apparent that, for the most part, the strategies these students used did not match the conceptions of learning they held. An interesting result was the difference between the conceptions of formal learning and perceptions of informal learning.

Online Copyright Infringement Discussion Paper July 2014

The Paper, by consideration of the issue of authorisation, addresses a very practical development in commerce. Online copyright infringement is now not only about unauthorised uses of cinematograph films but has filtered down to become more prevalent amongst small to medium enterprises (SME), as some competitors embrace online trading by aggressively and often unlawfully, seeking market share. It is understandable that internet service providers (ISPs), as gatekeepers of internet traffic, may be considered as being more than a conduit of contravening conduct but not a joint tortfeasor involved in a common design. In between those extremes lies the concept of authorisation in copyright which has a long history in Australia since the Copyright Act 1905 (Cth). The text of s 101(1A) of the Copyright Act, in particular s 101(1A)(a) and (c), derived from statements of Gibbs J in Moorhouse.