Quantitative genetic modeling and inference in the presence of nonignorable missing data.

Natural selection is typically exerted at some specific life stages. If natural selection takes place before a trait can be measured, using conventional models can cause wrong inference about population parameters. When the missing data process relates to the trait of interest, a valid inference requires explicit modeling of the missing process. We propose a joint modeling approach, a shared parameter model, to account for nonrandom missing data. It consists of an animal model for the phenotypic data and a logistic model for the missing process, linked by the additive genetic effects. A Bayesian approach is taken and inference is made using integrated nested Laplace approximations. From a simulation study we find that wrongly assuming that missing data are missing at random can result in severely biased estimates of additive genetic variance. Using real data from a wild population of Swiss barn owls Tyto alba, our model indicates that the missing individuals would display large black spots; and we conclude that genes affecting this trait are already under selection before it is expressed. Our model is a tool to correctly estimate the magnitude of both natural selection and additive genetic variance.

Comparison between indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays for Anaplasma marginale antibodies with recombinant major surface protein 5 and initial body antigens

Indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) based on recombinant major surface protein 5 (rMSP5) and initial body (IB) antigens from a Brazilian isolate of Anaplasma marginale were developed to detect antibodies against this rickettsia in cattle. Both tests showed the same sensitivity (98.2%) and specificities (100% for rMSP5 and 93.8% for IB ELISA) which did not differ statistically. No cross-reactions were detected with Babesia bigemina antibodies, but 5 (rMSP5 ELISA) to 15% (IB ELISA) of cross-reactions were detected with B. bovis antibodies. However, such difference was not statistically significant. Prevalences of seropositive crossbred beef cattle raised extensively in Miranda county, state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, were 78.1% by rMSP5 ELISA and 79.7% by IB ELISA. In the analysis of sera from dairy calves naturally-infected with A. marginale, the dynamics of antibody production was very similar between both tests, with maternal antibodies reaching the lowest levels at 15-30 days, followed by an increase in the mean optical densities in both ELISAs, suggesting the development of active immunity against A. marginale. Results showed that all calves were seropositive by one-year old, characterizing a situation of enzootic stability. The similar performances of the ELISAs suggest that both tests can be used in epidemiological surveys for detection of antibodies to A. marginale in cattle.

Performance of indirect immunofluorescence assay, immunochromatography assay and reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction for detecting human respiratory syncytial virus in nasopharyngeal aspirate samples

Comparison of the use of indirect immunofluorescence assay (IFA), immunochromatography assay (ICA-BD) and reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) for detecting human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) in 306 nasopharyngeal aspirates samples (NPA) was performed in order to assess their analytical performance. By comparing the results obtained using ICA-BD with those using IFA, we found relative indices of 85.0% for sensitivity and 91.2% for specificity, and the positive (PPV) and negative (NPV) predictive values were 85.0% and 91.2%, respectively. The relative indices for sensitivity and specificity as well as the PPV and NPV for RT-PCR were 98.0%, 89.0%, 84.0% and 99.0%, respectively, when compared to the results of IFA. In addition, comparison of the results of ICA-BD and those of RT-PCR yielded relative indices of 79.5% for sensitivity and 95.4% for specificity, as well as PPV and NPV of 92.9% and 86.0%, respectively. Although RT-PCR has shown the best performance, the substantial agreement between the ICA-BD and IFA results suggests that ICA-BD, also in addition to being a rapid and facile assay, could be suitable as an alternative diagnostic screening for HRSV infection in children.

Simultaneous estimation of indirect and interaction effects using structural equation models

Interaction effects are usually modeled by means of moderated regression analysis. Structural equation models with non-linear constraints make it possible to estimate interaction effects while correcting formeasurement error. From the various specifications, Jöreskog and Yang's(1996, 1998), likely the most parsimonious, has been chosen and further simplified. Up to now, only direct effects have been specified, thus wasting much of the capability of the structural equation approach. This paper presents and discusses an extension of Jöreskog and Yang's specification that can handle direct, indirect and interaction effects simultaneously. The model is illustrated by a study of the effects of an interactive style of use of budgets on both company innovation and performance

Inference of distributional parameters from compositional samples containing nondetects

Low concentrations of elements in geochemical analyses have the peculiarity of beingcompositional data and, for a given level of significance, are likely to be beyond thecapabilities of laboratories to distinguish between minute concentrations and completeabsence, thus preventing laboratories from reporting extremely low concentrations of theanalyte. Instead, what is reported is the detection limit, which is the minimumconcentration that conclusively differentiates between presence and absence of theelement. A spatially distributed exhaustive sample is employed in this study to generateunbiased sub-samples, which are further censored to observe the effect that differentdetection limits and sample sizes have on the inference of population distributionsstarting from geochemical analyses having specimens below detection limit (nondetects).The isometric logratio transformation is used to convert the compositional data in thesimplex to samples in real space, thus allowing the practitioner to properly borrow fromthe large source of statistical techniques valid only in real space. The bootstrap method isused to numerically investigate the reliability of inferring several distributionalparameters employing different forms of imputation for the censored data. The casestudy illustrates that, in general, best results are obtained when imputations are madeusing the distribution best fitting the readings above detection limit and exposes theproblems of other more widely used practices. When the sample is spatially correlated, itis necessary to combine the bootstrap with stochastic simulation

Comparison of direct and indirect alcohol markers with PEth in blood and urine in alcohol dependent inpatients during detoxication.

The importance of direct and indirect alcohol markers to evaluate alcohol consumption in clinical and forensic settings is increasingly recognized. While some markers are used to prove abstinence from ethanol, other markers are suitable for detection of alcohol misuse. Phosphatidyl ethanol (PEth) is ranked among the latter. There is only little information about the correlation between PEth and other currently used markers (ethyl glucuronide, ethyl sulfate, carbohydrate deficient transferrin, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase, and methanol) and about their decline during detoxification. To get more information, 18 alcohol-dependent patients in withdrawal therapy were monitored for these parameters in blood and urine for up to 19 days. There was no correlation between the different markers. PEth showed a rapid decrease at the beginning of the intervention, a slow decline after the first few days, and could still be detected after 19 days of abstinence from ethanol.

An indirect immunofluorescence antibody test employing whole eggs as the antigen for the diagnosis of abdominal angiostrongyliasis

Abdominal angiostrongyliasis is a potentially fatal zoonotic disease with a broad geographical distribution throughout Central and South America. This study assessed the performance of Angiostrongylus costaricensis eggs as the antigen in an indirect immunofluorescence assay for the determination of parasite-specific IgG and IgG1 antibodies. For prevalence studies, an IgG antibody titre > 16 was identified as the diagnostic threshold with the best performance, providing 93.7% sensitivity and 84.6% specificity. Cross reactivity was evaluated with 65 additional samples from patients with other known parasitic infections. Cross reactivity was observed only in samples from individuals infected with Strongyloides stercoralis. For clinical diagnosis, we recommend the determination of IgG only as a screening test. IgG1 determination may be used to increase the specificity of the results for patients with a positive screening test.

Applications of stochastic analysis in finance and statistical inference

First: A continuous-time version of Kyle's model (Kyle 1985), known as the Back's model (Back 1992), of asset pricing with asymmetric information, is studied. A larger class of price processes and of noise traders' processes are studied. The price process, as in Kyle's model, is allowed to depend on the path of the market order. The process of the noise traders' is an inhomogeneous Lévy process. Solutions are found by the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations. With the insider being risk-neutral, the price pressure is constant, and there is no equilibirium in the presence of jumps. If the insider is risk-averse, there is no equilibirium in the presence of either jumps or drifts. Also, it is analised when the release time is unknown. A general relation is established between the problem of finding an equilibrium and of enlargement of filtrations. Random announcement time is random is also considered. In such a case the market is not fully efficient and there exists equilibrium if the sensitivity of prices with respect to the global demand is time decreasing according with the distribution of the random time. Second: Power variations. it is considered, the asymptotic behavior of the power variation of processes of the form _integral_0^t u(s-)dS(s), where S_ is an alpha-stable process with index of stability 0&alpha&2 and the integral is an Itô integral. Stable convergence of corresponding fluctuations is established. These results provide statistical tools to infer the process u from discrete observations. Third: A bond market is studied where short rates r(t) evolve as an integral of g(t-s)sigma(s) with respect to W(ds), where g and sigma are deterministic and W is the stochastic Wiener measure. Processes of this type are particular cases of ambit processes. These processes are in general not of the semimartingale kind.

Indirect effects of peri-and postnatal choline treatment on place-learning abilities in rat.

This work was aimed at analyzing the effects of perinatal choline supplementation on the development of spatial abilities and upon adult performance. Choline supplementation (3.5 g/L in 0.02 M saccharin solution in tap water) was maintained for two weeks before birth and for up to four weeks postnatally. Additional supplementation was maintained from the fifth to the tenth week postnatally. Spatial-learning capacities were studied at the ages of 26, 65, or 80 days in a circular swimming pool (Morris place-navigation task) and at the age of 7 months in a homing arena. Treatment effects were found in both juvenile and adult rats, and thus persisted for several months after the cessation of the supplementation. The choline supplementation improved the performance in the water maze in a very selective manner. The most consistent effect was a reduction in the latency to reach a cued platform at a fixed position in space, whereas the improvement was limited when the platform was invisible and had to be located relative to distant cues only. However, after removal of the goal cue, the treated rats showed a better retention of the training position than did the control rats. A similar effect was observed in a dry-land task conducted in the homing arena. The choline supplementation thus induced a significant improvement of spatial memory. But since this effect was only evident following training with a salient cue, it might be regarded as an indirect effect promoted by an optimal combination of cue guidance with a place strategy.

Inference about the number of contributors to a DNA mixture: Comparative analyses of a Bayesian network approach and the maximum allele count method.

In the forensic examination of DNA mixtures, the question of how to set the total number of contributors (N) presents a topic of ongoing interest. Part of the discussion gravitates around issues of bias, in particular when assessments of the number of contributors are not made prior to considering the genotypic configuration of potential donors. Further complication may stem from the observation that, in some cases, there may be numbers of contributors that are incompatible with the set of alleles seen in the profile of a mixed crime stain, given the genotype of a potential contributor. In such situations, procedures that take a single and fixed number contributors as their output can lead to inferential impasses. Assessing the number of contributors within a probabilistic framework can help avoiding such complication. Using elements of decision theory, this paper analyses two strategies for inference on the number of contributors. One procedure is deterministic and focuses on the minimum number of contributors required to 'explain' an observed set of alleles. The other procedure is probabilistic using Bayes' theorem and provides a probability distribution for a set of numbers of contributors, based on the set of observed alleles as well as their respective rates of occurrence. The discussion concentrates on mixed stains of varying quality (i.e., different numbers of loci for which genotyping information is available). A so-called qualitative interpretation is pursued since quantitative information such as peak area and height data are not taken into account. The competing procedures are compared using a standard scoring rule that penalizes the degree of divergence between a given agreed value for N, that is the number of contributors, and the actual value taken by N. Using only modest assumptions and a discussion with reference to a casework example, this paper reports on analyses using simulation techniques and graphical models (i.e., Bayesian networks) to point out that setting the number of contributors to a mixed crime stain in probabilistic terms is, for the conditions assumed in this study, preferable to a decision policy that uses categoric assumptions about N.

"I don't know how you are" or indirect questioning in oncology interviews: an ongoing exploratory study

Background: The exploratory study is part of an evaluation of the pre-graduate teaching of communication skills (Lausanne Medical School). It is based on the data of a project highlighting the impact of individualized vs. group training for medicine students in breaking bad news to simulated patients who are diagnosed with cancer. The analysis of the video-taped interviews of the students (N=63) with the RIAS has shown a current usage of utterances such as I don't know if -you have any plans for the future / you have already heard about chemotherapy / ... or I don't know how -you are feeling today after this surgery / you like that all this stuff takes place / ...Aim: The present study questions the specificity of these assertive utterances used as questions (indirect), the specificity of their content, and their intentionality - specific vs. exploratory.Methods: The mentioned utterances are qualitatively analyzed (content analysis, intentionality analysis, etc).Results: 26 students (41%) used 1 to 6 times I don't know utterances during the interviews that contain 53 of such utterances in total. In contrast, they are atypical in an oncologist sample who conducted similar interviews (N=31; 4 oncologist used them 1 to 2 times). In more than half of the cases (29/53), simulated patients interpret I don't know questions as giving them a space to speak (open responses). Conclusions: The atypicality of the I don't know utterances in the oncologist sample may have linguistic explanations in terms of generational marker, but the specificity of the content suggests psychological explanations in terms of defense mechanism as well (marker of "toning down" or insecurity as regards the discussed topic).Keywords: Breaking bad news, communication skills, oncology, pre-graduate medical education, indirect questioning

Inconspicuous assessment of diet-induced thermogenesis using whole-body indirect calorimetry.

We report a novel technique for computing diet-induced thermogenesis using data from 24-h respiration chamber measurements of 76 subjects. Physical activity (PA) was determined using a radar system to assess its duration and an accelerometer to evaluate its intensity. The regression line relating PA and energy expenditure facilitated calculation of the integrated thermogenic response to the total energy ingested (11.4% ± 3.8%), which is consistent with the values classically reported in the literature (10%) at the group level.