Using Trauma Injury Severity Score (TRISS) variables to predict length of hospital stay following trauma in New Zealand

Aim – To develop and assess the predictive capabilities of a statistical model that relates routinely collected Trauma Injury Severity Score (TRISS) variables to length of hospital stay (LOS) in survivors of traumatic injury. Method – Retrospective cohort study of adults who sustained a serious traumatic injury, and who survived until discharge from Auckland City, Middlemore, Waikato, or North Shore Hospitals between 2002 and 2006. Cubic-root transformed LOS was analysed using two-level mixed-effects regression models. Results – 1498 eligible patients were identified, 1446 (97%) injured from a blunt mechanism and 52 (3%) from a penetrating mechanism. For blunt mechanism trauma, 1096 (76%) were male, average age was 37 years (range: 15-94 years), and LOS and TRISS score information was available for 1362 patients. Spearman’s correlation and the median absolute prediction error between LOS and the original TRISS model was ρ=0.31 and 10.8 days, respectively, and between LOS and the final multivariable two-level mixed-effects regression model was ρ=0.38 and 6.0 days, respectively. Insufficient data were available for the analysis of penetrating mechanism models. Conclusions – Neither the original TRISS model nor the refined model has sufficient ability to accurately or reliably predict LOS. Additional predictor variables for LOS and other indicators for morbidity need to be considered.

Nutritional status and information needs of medical oncology patients receiving treatment at an Australian public hospital

This study aimed to identify: i) the prevalence of malnutrition according to the scored Patient Generated-Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA); ii) utilization of available nutrition resources; iii) patient nutrition information needs; and iv) external sources of nutrition information. An observational, cross-sectional study was undertaken at an Australian public hospital on 191 patients receiving oncology services. According to PG-SGA, 49% of patients were malnourished and 46% required improved symptom management and/or nutrition intervention. Commonly reported nutrition-impact symptoms included: peculiar tastes (31%), no appetite (24%) and nausea (24%). External sources of nutrition information were accessed by 37%, with popular choices being media/internet (n=19) and family/friends (n=13). In a sub-sample (n=65), 32 patients were aware of the available nutrition resources, 23 thought the information sufficient and 19 patients had actually read them. Additional information on supplements and modifying side effects was requested by 26 patients. Malnutrition is common in oncology patients receiving treatment at an Australian public hospital and almost half require improved symptom management and/or nutrition intervention. Patients who read the available nutrition information found it useful, however awareness of these nutrition resources and the provision of information on supplementation and managing symptoms requires attention.

Development and validation of 3-Minute Nutrition Screening (3-MinNS) tool for acute hospital patients in Singapore

It is important to detect and treat malnutrition in hospital patients so as to improve clinical outcome and reduce hospital stay. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a nutrition screening tool with a simple and quick scoring system for acute hospital patients in Singapore. In this study, 818 newly admitted patients aged above 18 years old were screened using five parameters that contribute to the risk of malnutrition. A dietitian blinded to the nutrition screening score assessed the same patients using the reference standard, Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) within 48 hours. The sensitivity and specificity were established using the Receiver Operator Characteristics (ROC) curve and the best cutoff scores determined. The nutrition parameter with the largest Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) was chosen as the final screening tool, which was named 3-Minute Nutrition Screening (3-MinNS). The combination of the parameters weight loss, intake and muscle wastage (3-MinNS), gave the largest AUC when compared with SGA. Using 3-MinNS, the best cutoff point to identify malnourished patients is three (sensitivity 86%, specificity 83%). The cutoff score to identify subjects at risk of severe malnutrition is five (sensitivity 93%, specificity 86%). 3-Minute Nutrition Screening is a valid, simple and rapid tool to identify patients at risk of malnutrition in Singapore acute hospital patients. It is able to differentiate patients at risk of moderate malnutrition and severe malnutrition for prioritization and management purposes.

Cost-effectiveness of an intervention to reduce emergency re-admissions to hospital among older patients

Background. The objective is to estimate the cost-effectiveness of an intervention that reduces hospital readmission among older people at high risk. A cost-effectiveness model to estimate the costs and health benefits of the intervention was implemented. Methodology/Principal Findings. The model used data from a randomised controlled trial conducted in an Australian tertiary metropolitan hospital. Participants were acute medical admissions aged >65 years with at least one risk factor for readmission: multiple comorbidities, impaired functionality, aged >75 years, 30 recent multiple admissions, poor social support, history of depression. The intervention was a comprehensive nursing and physiotherapy assessment and an individually tailored program of exercise strategies and nurse home visits with telephone follow-up; commencing in hospital and continuing following discharge for 24 weeks. The change to cost outcomes, including the costs of implementing the intervention and all subsequent use of health care services, and, the change to health benefits, represented by quality adjusted life years, were estimated for the intervention as compared to existing practice. The mean change to total costs and quality 38 adjusted life years for an average individual over 24 weeks participating in the intervention were: cost savings of $333 (95% Bayesian credible interval $-1,932:1,282) and 0.118 extra quality adjusted life years (95% Bayesian credible interval 0.1:0.136). The mean net41 monetary-benefit per individual for the intervention group compared to the usual care condition was $7,907 (95% Bayesian credible interval $5,959:$9,995) for the 24 week period. Conclusions/Significance. The estimation model that describes this intervention predicts cost savings and improved health outcomes. A decision to remain with existing practices causes unnecessary costs and reduced health. Decision makers should consider adopting this 46 program for elderly hospitalised patients.

Temperature variation and emergency hospital admissions for stroke in Brisbane, Australia, 1996-2005

Stroke is a leading cause of disability and death. This study evaluated the association between temperature variation and emergency admissions for stroke in Brisbane, Australia. Daily emergency admissions for stroke, meteorologic and air pollution data were obtained for the period of January 1996 to December 2005. The relative risk of emergency admissions for stroke was estimated with a generalized estimating equations (GEE) model. For primary intracerebral hemorrhage (PIH) emergency admissions, the average daily PIH for the group aged < 65 increased by 15% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 5, 26%) and 12% (95% CI: 2, 22%) for a 1°C increase in daily maximum temperature and minimum temperature in summer, respectively, after controlling for potential confounding effects of humidity and air pollutants. For ischemic stroke (IS) emergency admissions, the average daily IS for the group aged ≥ 65 decreased by 3% (95% CI: -6, 0%) for a 1°C increase in daily maximum temperature in winter after adjustment for confounding factors. Temperature variation was significantly associated with emergency admissions for stroke, and its impact varied with different type of stroke. Health authorities should pay greater attention to possible increasing emergency care for strokes when temperature changes, in both summer and winter.

Setting hospital infection control policy : a decision-making framework incorporating health economics and healthcare epidemiology

Background: Reducing rates of healthcare acquired infection has been identified by the Australian Commission on Safety and Quality in Health Care as a national priority. One of the goals is the prevention of central venous catheter-related bloodstream infection (CR-BSI). At least 3,500 cases of CR-BSI occur annually in Australian hospitals, resulting in unnecessary deaths and costs to the healthcare system between $25.7 and $95.3 million. Two approaches to preventing these infections have been proposed: use of antimicrobial catheters (A-CVCs); or a catheter care and management ‘bundle’. Given finite healthcare budgets, decisions about the optimal infection control policy require consideration of the effectiveness and value for money of each approach. Objectives: The aim of this research is to use a rational economic framework to inform efficient infection control policy relating to the prevention of CR-BSI in the intensive care unit. It addresses three questions relating to decision-making in this area: 1. Is additional investment in activities aimed at preventing CR-BSI an efficient use of healthcare resources? 2. What is the optimal infection control strategy from amongst the two major approaches that have been proposed to prevent CR-BSI? 3. What uncertainty is there in this decision and can a research agenda to improve decision-making in this area be identified? Methods: A decision analytic model-based economic evaluation was undertaken to identify an efficient approach to preventing CR-BSI in Queensland Health intensive care units. A Markov model was developed in conjunction with a panel of clinical experts which described the epidemiology and prognosis of CR-BSI. The model was parameterised using data systematically identified from the published literature and extracted from routine databases. The quality of data used in the model and its validity to clinical experts and sensitivity to modelling assumptions was assessed. Two separate economic evaluations were conducted. The first evaluation compared all commercially available A-CVCs alongside uncoated catheters to identify which was cost-effective for routine use. The uncertainty in this decision was estimated along with the value of collecting further information to inform the decision. The second evaluation compared the use of A-CVCs to a catheter care bundle. We were unable to estimate the cost of the bundle because it is unclear what the full resource requirements are for its implementation, and what the value of these would be in an Australian context. As such we undertook a threshold analysis to identify the cost and effectiveness thresholds at which a hypothetical bundle would dominate the use of A-CVCs under various clinical scenarios. Results: In the first evaluation of A-CVCs, the findings from the baseline analysis, in which uncertainty is not considered, show that the use of any of the four A-CVCs will result in health gains accompanied by cost-savings. The MR catheters dominate the baseline analysis generating 1.64 QALYs and cost-savings of $130,289 per 1.000 catheters. With uncertainty, and based on current information, the MR catheters remain the optimal decision and return the highest average net monetary benefits ($948 per catheter) relative to all other catheter types. This conclusion was robust to all scenarios tested, however, the probability of error in this conclusion is high, 62% in the baseline scenario. Using a value of $40,000 per QALY, the expected value of perfect information associated with this decision is $7.3 million. An analysis of the expected value of perfect information for individual parameters suggests that it may be worthwhile for future research to focus on providing better estimates of the mortality attributable to CR-BSI and the effectiveness of both SPC and CH/SSD (int/ext) catheters. In the second evaluation of the catheter care bundle relative to A-CVCs, the results which do not consider uncertainty indicate that a bundle must achieve a relative risk of CR-BSI of at least 0.45 to be cost-effective relative to MR catheters. If the bundle can reduce rates of infection from 2.5% to effectively zero, it is cost-effective relative to MR catheters if national implementation costs are less than $2.6 million ($56,610 per ICU). If the bundle can achieve a relative risk of 0.34 (comparable to that reported in the literature) it is cost-effective, relative to MR catheters, if costs over an 18 month period are below $613,795 nationally ($13,343 per ICU). Once uncertainty in the decision is considered, the cost threshold for the bundle increases to $2.2 million. Therefore, if each of the 46 Level III ICUs could implement an 18 month catheter care bundle for less than $47,826 each, this approach would be cost effective relative to A-CVCs. However, the uncertainty is substantial and the probability of error in concluding that the bundle is the cost-effective approach at a cost of $2.2 million is 89%. Conclusions: This work highlights that infection control to prevent CR-BSI is an efficient use of healthcare resources in the Australian context. If there is no further investment in infection control, an opportunity cost is incurred, which is the potential for a more efficient healthcare system. Minocycline/rifampicin catheters are the optimal choice of antimicrobial catheter for routine use in Australian Level III ICUs, however, if a catheter care bundle implemented in Australia was as effective as those used in the large studies in the United States it would be preferred over the catheters if it was able to be implemented for less than $47,826 per Level III ICU. Uncertainty is very high in this decision and arises from multiple sources. There are likely greater costs to this uncertainty for A-CVCs, which may carry hidden costs, than there are for a catheter care bundle, which is more likely to provide indirect benefits to clinical practice and patient safety. Research into the mortality attributable to CR-BSI, the effectiveness of SPC and CH/SSD (int/ext) catheters and the cost and effectiveness of a catheter care bundle in Australia should be prioritised to reduce uncertainty in this decision. This thesis provides the economic evidence to inform one area of infection control, but there are many other infection control decisions for which information about the cost-effectiveness of competing interventions does not exist. This work highlights some of the challenges and benefits to generating and using economic evidence for infection control decision-making and provides support for commissioning more research into the cost-effectiveness of infection control.

Anger and depression predict hospital use among chronic heart failure patients

Costly hospital readmissions among chronic heart failure (CHF) patients are expected to increase dramatically with the ageing population. This study investigated the prognostic ability of depression, anger and anxiety, prospectively, and after adjusting for illness severity, on the number of readmissions to hospital and the total length of stay over one year. Participants comprised 175 inpatients with CHF. Depression, anger, anxiety, and illness severity were measured at baseline. One year later, the number of readmissions and length of stay for each patient were obtained from medical records. Depression and anger play a detrimental role in the health profile of CHF patients.

Improved functional ability and independence in activities of daily living for older adults at high risk of hospital readmission : a randomised controlled trial

Objective: During hospitalisation older people often experience functional decline which impacts on their future independence. The objective of this study was to evaluate a multifaceted transitional care intervention including home-based exercise strategies for at-risk older people on functional status, independence in activities of daily living, and walking ability. Methods: A randomised controlled trial was undertaken in a metropolitan hospital in Australia with 128 patients (64 intervention, 64 control) aged over 65 years with an acute medical admission and at least one risk factor for hospital readmission. The intervention group received an individually tailored program for exercise and follow-up care which was commenced in hospital and included regular visits in hospital by a physiotherapist and a Registered Nurse, a home visit following discharge, and regular telephone follow-up for 24 weeks following discharge. The program was designed to improve health promoting behaviours, strength, stability, endurance and mobility. Data were collected at baseline, then 4, 12 and 24 weeks following discharge using the Index of Activities of Daily Living (ADL), Instrumental Index of Activities of Daily Living (IADL), and the Walking Impairment Questionnaire (Modified). Results: Significant improvements were found in the intervention group in IADL scores (p<.001), ADL scores (p<.001), and WIQ scale scores (p<.001) in comparison to the control group. The greatest improvements were found in the first four weeks following discharge. Conclusions: Early introduction of a transitional model of care incorporating a tailored exercise program and regular telephone follow-up for hospitalised at-risk older adults can improve independence and functional ability.

The relationship between particulate air pollution and emergency hospital visits for hypertension in Beijing, China

BACKGROUND: A number of epidemiological studies have examined the adverse effect of air pollution on mortality and morbidity. Also, several studies have investigated the associations between air pollution and specific-cause diseases including arrhythmia, myocardial infarction, and heart failure. However, little is known about the relationship between air pollution and the onset of hypertension. OBJECTIVE: To explore the risk effect of particulate matter air pollution on the emergency hospital visits (EHVs) for hypertension in Beijing, China. METHODS: We gathered data on daily EHVs for hypertension, fine particulate matter less than 2.5 microm in aerodynamic diameter (PM(2.5)), particulate matter less than 10 microm in aerodynamic diameter (PM(10)), sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide in Beijing, China during 2007. A time-stratified case-crossover design with distributed lag model was used to evaluate associations between ambient air pollutants and hypertension. Daily mean temperature and relative humidity were controlled in all models. RESULTS: There were 1,491 EHVs for hypertension during the study period. In single pollutant models, an increase in 10 microg/m(3) in PM(2.5) and PM(10) was associated with EHVs for hypertension with odds ratios (overall effect of five days) of 1.084 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.028, 1.139) and 1.060% (95% CI: 1.020, 1.101), respectively. CONCLUSION: Elevated levels of ambient particulate matters are associated with an increase in EHVs for hypertension in Beijing, China.