Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes appear to be slightly underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate–carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO2 and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated. Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2 × and 4 × CO2 experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate–carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by general circulation models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows a non-linear interaction between land-use change and CO2 forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO2 between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from palaeoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of unforced variability within the climate system, uncertainty in the reconstructions of temperature and CO2, errors in the reconstructions of forcing used to drive the models, or the incomplete representation of certain processes within the models. Given the forcing datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emissions over the pre-industrial period. This implies that land-use emissions might need to be taken into account, when making estimates of climate–carbon feedbacks from palaeoclimate reconstructions.

Evaluating adjusted forcing and model spread for historical and future scenarios in the CMIP5 generation of climate models

We utilize energy budget diagnostics from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) to evaluate the models' climate forcing since preindustrial times employing an established regression technique. The climate forcing evaluated this way, termed the adjusted forcing (AF), includes a rapid adjustment term associated with cloud changes and other tropospheric and land-surface changes. We estimate a 2010 total anthropogenic and natural AF from CMIP5 models of 1.9 ± 0.9 W m−2 (5–95% range). The projected AF of the Representative Concentration Pathway simulations are lower than their expected radiative forcing (RF) in 2095 but agree well with efficacy weighted forcings from integrated assessment models. The smaller AF, compared to RF, is likely due to cloud adjustment. Multimodel time series of temperature change and AF from 1850 to 2100 have large intermodel spreads throughout the period. The intermodel spread of temperature change is principally driven by forcing differences in the present day and climate feedback differences in 2095, although forcing differences are still important for model spread at 2095. We find no significant relationship between the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of a model and its 2003 AF, in contrast to that found in older models where higher ECS models generally had less forcing. Given the large present-day model spread, there is no indication of any tendency by modelling groups to adjust their aerosol forcing in order to produce observed trends. Instead, some CMIP5 models have a relatively large positive forcing and overestimate the observed temperature change.

Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones in a multi-model ensemble of historical and future simulations

This study has investigated serial (temporal) clustering of extra-tropical cyclones simulated by 17 climate models that participated in CMIP5. Clustering was estimated by calculating the dispersion (ratio of variance to mean) of 30 December-February counts of Atlantic storm tracks passing nearby each grid point. Results from single historical simulations of 1975-2005 were compared to those from historical ERA40 reanalyses from 1958-2001 ERA40 and single future model projections of 2069-2099 under the RCP4.5 climate change scenario. Models were generally able to capture the broad features in reanalyses reported previously: underdispersion/regularity (i.e. variance less than mean) in the western core of the Atlantic storm track surrounded by overdispersion/clustering (i.e. variance greater than mean) to the north and south and over western Europe. Regression of counts onto North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices revealed that much of the overdispersion in the historical reanalyses and model simulations can be accounted for by NAO variability. Future changes in dispersion were generally found to be small and not consistent across models. The overdispersion statistic, for any 30 year sample, is prone to large amounts of sampling uncertainty that obscures the climate change signal. For example, the projected increase in dispersion for storm counts near London in the CNRMCM5 model is 0.1 compared to a standard deviation of 0.25. Projected changes in the mean and variance of NAO are insufficient to create changes in overdispersion that are discernible above natural sampling variations.

Climate variability and human impact in South America during the last 2000 years: synthesis and perspectives from pollen records

An improved understanding of present-day climate variability and change relies on high-quality data sets from the past 2 millennia. Global efforts to model regional climate modes are in the process of being validated against, and integrated with, records of past vegetation change. For South America, however, the full potential of vegetation records for evaluating and improving climate models has hitherto not been sufficiently acknowledged due to an absence of information on the spatial and temporal coverage of study sites. This paper therefore serves as a guide to high-quality pollen records that capture environmental variability during the last 2 millennia. We identify 60 vegetation (pollen) records from across South America which satisfy geochronological requirements set out for climate modelling, and we discuss their sensitivity to the spatial signature of climate modes throughout the continent. Diverse patterns of vegetation response to climate change are observed, with more similar patterns of change in the lowlands and varying intensity and direction of responses in the highlands. Pollen records display local-scale responses to climate modes; thus, it is necessary to understand how vegetation–climate interactions might diverge under variable settings. We provide a qualitative translation from pollen metrics to climate variables. Additionally, pollen is an excellent indicator of human impact through time. We discuss evidence for human land use in pollen records and provide an overview considered useful for archaeological hypothesis testing and important in distinguishing natural from anthropogenically driven vegetation change. We stress the need for the palynological community to be more familiar with climate variability patterns to correctly attribute the potential causes of observed vegetation dynamics. This manuscript forms part of the wider LOng-Term multi-proxy climate REconstructions and Dynamics in South America – 2k initiative that provides the ideal framework for the integration of the various palaeoclimatic subdisciplines and palaeo-science, thereby jump-starting and fostering multidisciplinary research into environmental change on centennial and millennial timescales.

Gender diversity and board performance: women's experiences and perspectives

Despite considerable progress that organizations have made during the past 20 years to increase the representation of women at board level, they still hold few board seats. Drawing on a qualitative study involving 30 companies with women directors in the United Kingdom, the United States, and Ghana, we investigate how the relationship between gender in the boardroom and corporate governance operates. The fi ndings indicate that the presence of a minority of women on the board has an insignifi cant effect on board performance. Yet the chairperson’s role is vital in leading the change for recruiting and evaluating candidates and their commitment to the board with diversity and governance in mind. Our study also sheds light on the multifaceted reasons why women directors appear to be resisting the discourse of gender quotas.

Bioethanol from lignocelluloses: Status and perspectives in Brazil

The National Alcohol Program - ProAlcool, created by the government of Brazil in 1975 resulted less dependency on fossil fuels. The addition of 25% ethanol to gasoline reduced the import of 550 million barrels oil and also reduced the emission CO(2) by 110 million tons. Today, 44% of the Brazilian energy matrix is renewable and 13.5% is derived from sugarcane. Brazil has a land area of 851 million hectares, of which 54% are preserved, including the Amazon forest (350 million hectares). From the land available for agriculture (340 million hectares), only 0.9% is occupied by sugarcane as energy crop, showing a great expansion potential. Studies have shown that in the coming years, ethanol yield per hectare of sugarcane, which presently is 6000 L/ha, could reach 10,000 L/ha, if 50% of the produced bagasse would be converted to ethanol. This article describes the efforts of different Brazilian institutions and research groups on second generation bioethanol production, especially from sugarcane bagasse. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Marketing Social Change: A Comparative Historical and Methodological Analysis of Anti-Smoking Endeavors

Even though assessing social marketing endeavors proves to be challenging, evaluators can learn from previous campaigns and identify which facets of social marketing events, programs and campaigns need to be improved. Additionally, by analyzing social movements and evaluating how they connect to social marketing, we can gain a clearer view on ways to ameliorate the field of social marketing. As social marketing becomes increasingly sophisticated and similar to commercial marketing, there is hope that social marketing can yield higher rates of success in the future. Friend and Levy (2002) claimed that it was nearly impossible to compare social marketing endeavors using quantitative criteria and advocate the use of qualitative methods. However, if social marketing scholars developed a more systematic paradigm to assess events, programs and campaigns employing a combination of both quantitative and qualitative methods, then it would be easier to establish which social marketing efforts generated more success than others. When there are too many confounding variables, conclusions cannot always be drawn and evaluations may not be viewed as legitimate. As a result, critics become skeptical of social marketing’s value and both the importance and credibility of social marketing decline. With the establishment of proper criteria and evaluation methods, social marketing can progress and initiate more social change.

Heat shock proteins (HSP): dermatological implications and perspectives

In recent years, several studies have demonstrated the protective effect of Heat Shock Proteins (HSP) on different organs and tissues under stressful conditions. However, most research explores the performance of those molecular chaperones during immune responses or pathological conditions like cancer, whereas the number of studies related to the performance of HSPs in the skin during diverse natural or physiopathological conditions is very low. Therefore, the aim of this article was to summarize the main concepts concerning the expression and performance of HSPs, from analysis of current medicine and cosmetics publications, as well as exploring the importance of these proteins in the dermatological area in physiological events such as cutaneous aging, skin cancer and wound healing and to present final considerations related to biotechnology performance in this area.

Trends in rheumatic fever: clinical aspects and perspectives in prophylactic treatments

Introduction: Rheumatic fever (RF), a systemic illness that may occur following Group A beta-hemolytic streptococcal (GABHS) pharyngitis in children, is a major problem in countries with limited resources. Because of its long track record and low cost, an injection of benzathine penicillin G (BPG) suspension every 3 or 4 weeks has been used as secondary prophylaxis. Despite its excellent in vitro efficacy, the inability of BPG to eradicate GABHS has been frequently reported.Areas covered: This work reviews the possible causes of failure, as well as the inconvenience of the current prophylactic treatment of acute RF and suggests a new pharmacotherapeutic system that could replace the current one.Expert opinion: RF is a major problem concerning only countries with limited resources and could be considered as a neglected disease. The dose regimen using BPG suspension results in failures, which could be avoided by the use of nanocarrier-based systems. To meet this ultimate goal, the research should be transposed from the laboratory scale to an industrial and clinical application level. This research should be conducted to produce a pharmaceutical dosage form that will be commercially available, consumed by and affordable for patients. However, health, environmental and socioeconomic hazards should be considered.

A Review of Analytical Techniques for Determination of Glimepiride: Present and Perspectives

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Contributions and perspectives of chicken genomics in Brazil: from biological model to export commodity

Chicken is one of the most important sources of animal protein for human consumption, and breeding programmes have been responsible for constant improvements in production efficiency and product quality. Furthermore, chicken has largely contributed to fundamental discoveries in biology for the last 100 years. In this article we review recent developments in poultry genomics and their contribution to adding functional information to the already existing structural genomics, including the availability of the complete genome sequence, a comprehensive collection of mRNA sequences ( ESTs), microarray platforms, and their use to complement QTL mapping strategies in the identification of genes that underlie complex traits. Efforts of the Brazilian Poultry Genomics Programme in this area resulted in generation of a resource population, which was used for identification of Quantitative Trait Loci ( QTL) regions, generation of ESTs and candidate gene studies that contributed to furthering our understanding of the complex biological processes involved in growth and muscular development in chicken.