A Framework for Adaptation of Australian Households to Heat Waves

Climate change is leading to an increased frequency and severity of heat waves. Spells of several consecutive days of unusually high temperatures have led to increased mortality rates for the more vulnerable in the community. The problem is compounded by the escalating energy costs and increasing peak electrical demand as people become more reliant on air conditioning. Domestic air conditioning is the primary determinant of peak power demand which has been a major driver of higher electricity costs. This report presents the findings of multidisciplinary research which develops a national framework to evaluate the potential impacts of heat waves. It presents a technical, social and economic approach to adapt Australian residential buildings to ameliorate the impact of heat waves in the community and reduce the risk of its adverse outcomes. Through the development of a methodology for estimating the impact of global warming on key weather parameters in 2030 and 2050, it is possible to re-evaluate the size and anticipated energy consumption of air conditioners in future years for various climate zones in Australia. Over the coming decades it is likely that mainland Australia will require more cooling than heating. While in some parts the total electricity usage for heating and cooling may remain unchanged, there is an overall significant increase in peak electricity demand, likely to further drive electricity prices. Through monitoring groups of households in South Australia, New South Wales and Queensland, the impact of heat waves on both thermal comfort sensation and energy consumption for air conditioning has been evaluated. The results show that households are likely to be able to tolerate slightly increased temperature levels indoors during periods of high outside temperatures. The research identified that household electricity costs are likely to rise above what is currently projected due to the impact of climate change. Through a number of regulatory changes to both household design and air conditioners, this impact can be minimised. A number of proposed retrofit and design measures are provided, which can readily reduce electricity usage for cooling at minimal cost to the household. Using a number of social research instruments, it is evident that households are willing to change behaviour rather than to spend money. Those on lower income and elderly individuals are the least able to afford the use of air conditioning and should be a priority for interventions and assistance. Increasing community awareness of cost effective strategies to manage comfort and health during heat waves is a high priority recommended action. Overall, the research showed that a combined approach including behaviour change, dwelling modification and improved air conditioner selection can readily adapt Australian households to the impact of heat waves, reducing the risk of heat related deaths and household energy costs.

Variants in the human potassium channel gene (KCNN3) are associated with migraine in a high risk genetic isolate

The calcium-activated potassium ion channel gene (KCNN3) is located in the vicinity of the familial hemiplegic migraine type 2 locus on chromosome 1q21.3. This gene is expressed in the central nervous system and plays a role in neural excitability. Previous association studies have provided some, although not conclusive, evidence for involvement of this gene in migraine susceptibility. To elucidate KCNN3 involvement in migraine, we performed gene-wide SNP genotyping in a high-risk genetic isolate from Norfolk Island, a population descended from a small number of eighteenth century Isle of Man ‘Bounty Mutineer’ and Tahitian founders. Phenotype information was available for 377 individuals who are related through the single, well-defined Norfolk pedigree (96 were affected: 64 MA, 32 MO). A total of 85 SNPs spanning the KCNN3 gene were genotyped in a sub-sample of 285 related individuals (76 affected), all core members of the extensive Norfolk Island ‘Bounty Mutineer’ genealogy. All genotyping was performed using the Illumina BeadArray platform. The analysis was performed using the statistical program SOLAR v4.0.6 assuming an additive model of allelic effect adjusted for the effects of age and sex. Haplotype analysis was undertaken using the program HAPLOVIEW v4.0. A total of four intronic SNPs in the KCNN3 gene displayed significant association (P < 0.05) with migraine. Two SNPs, rs73532286 and rs6426929, separated by approximately 0.1 kb, displayed complete LD (r 2 = 1.00, D′ = 1.00, D′ 95% CI = 0.96–1.00). In all cases, the minor allele led to a decrease in migraine risk (beta coefficient = 0.286–0.315), suggesting that common gene variants confer an increased risk of migraine in the Norfolk pedigree. This effect may be explained by founder effect in this genetic isolate. This study provides evidence for association of variants in the KCNN3 ion channel gene with migraine susceptibility in the Norfolk genetic isolate with the rarer allelic variants conferring a possible protective role. This the first comprehensive analysis of this potential candidate gene in migraine and also the first study that has utilised the unique Norfolk Island large pedigree isolate to implicate a specific migraine gene. Studies of additional variants in KCNN3 in the Norfolk pedigree are now required (e.g. polyglutamine variants) and further analyses in other population data sets are required to clarify the association of the KCNN3 gene and migraine risk in the general outbred population.

Rethinking disaster risk management and climate change adaptation

Australian governments face the twin challenges of dealing with extreme weather-related disasters (such as floods and bushfires) and adapting to the impacts of climate change. These challenges are connected, so any response would benefit from a more integrated approach across and between the different levels of government.This report summarises the findings of an NCCARF-funded project that addresses this problem. The project undertook a three-way comparative case study of the 2009 Victorian bushfires, the 2011 Perth Hills bushfires, and the 2011 Brisbane floods. It collected data from the official inquiry reports into each of these events, and conducted new interviews and workshops with key stakeholders. The findings of this project included recommendations that range from the conceptual to the practical. First, it was argued that a reconceptualization of terms such as ‘community’ and ‘resilience’ was necessary to allow for more tailored responses to varying circumstances. Second, it was suggested that the high level of uncertainty inherent in disaster risk management and climate change adaptation requires a more iterative approach to policymaking and planning. Third, some specific institutional reforms were proposed that included: 1) a new funding mechanism that would encourage collaboration between and across different levels of government, as well as promoting partnerships with business and the community; 2) improving community engagement through new resilience grants run by local councils; 3) embedding climate change researchers within disaster risk management agencies to promote institutional learning, and; 4) creating an inter-agency network that encourages collaboration between organisations.

The health effects of temperature : current estimates, future projections, and adaptation strategies

Climate change is expected to be one of the biggest global health threats in the 21st century. In response to changes in climate and associated extreme events, public health adaptation has become imperative. This thesis examined several key issues in this emerging research field. The thesis aimed to identify the climate-health (particularly temperature-health) relationships, then develop quantitative models that can be used to project future health impacts of climate change, and therefore help formulate adaptation strategies for dealing with climate-related health risks and reducing vulnerability. The research questions addressed by this thesis were: (1) What are the barriers to public health adaptation to climate change? What are the research priorities in this emerging field? (2) What models and frameworks can be used to project future temperature-related mortality under different climate change scenarios? (3) What is the actual burden of temperature-related mortality? What are the impacts of climate change on future burden of disease? and (4) Can we develop public health adaptation strategies to manage the health effects of temperature in response to climate change? Using a literature review, I discussed how public health organisations should implement and manage the process of planned adaptation. This review showed that public health adaptation can operate at two levels: building adaptive capacity and implementing adaptation actions. However, there are constraints and barriers to adaptation arising from uncertainty, cost, technologic limits, institutional arrangements, deficits of social capital, and individual perception of risks. The opportunities for planning and implementing public health adaptation are reliant on effective strategies to overcome likely barriers. I proposed that high priorities should be given to multidisciplinary research on the assessment of potential health effects of climate change, projections of future health impacts under different climate and socio-economic scenarios, identification of health cobenefits of climate change policies, and evaluation of cost-effective public health adaptation options. Heat-related mortality is the most direct and highly-significant potential climate change impact on human health. I thus conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under different climate change scenarios. The review showed that climate change is likely to result in a substantial increase in heatrelated mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding of historical temperature-mortality relationships, and consideration of future changes in climate, population and acclimatisation. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for mortality projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution and mortality displacement. Most previous studies were designed to examine temperature-related excess deaths or mortality risks. However, if most temperature-related deaths occur in the very elderly who had only a short life expectancy, then the burden of temperature on mortality would have less public health importance. To guide policy decisions and resource allocation, it is desirable to know the actual burden of temperature-related mortality. To achieve this, I used years of life lost to provide a new measure of health effects of temperature. I conducted a time-series analysis to estimate years of life lost associated with changes in season and temperature in Brisbane, Australia. I also projected the future temperaturerelated years of life lost attributable to climate change. This study showed that the association between temperature and years of life lost was U-shaped, with increased years of life lost on cold and hot days. The temperature-related years of life lost will worsen greatly if future climate change goes beyond a 2 °C increase and without any adaptation to higher temperatures. The excess mortality during prolonged extreme temperatures is often greater than the predicted using smoothed temperature-mortality association. This is because sustained period of extreme temperatures produce an extra effect beyond that predicted by daily temperatures. To better estimate the burden of extreme temperatures, I estimated their effects on years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease using data from Brisbane, Australia. The results showed that the association between daily mean temperature and years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease was U-shaped, with the lowest years of life lost at 24 °C (the 75th percentile of daily mean temperature in Brisbane), rising progressively as temperatures become hotter or colder. There were significant added effects of heat waves, but no added effects of cold spells. Finally, public health adaptation to hot weather is necessary and pressing. I discussed how to manage the health effects of temperature, especially with the context of climate change. Strategies to minimise the health effects of high temperatures and climate change can fall into two categories: reducing the heat exposure and managing the health effects of high temperatures. However, policy decisions need information on specific adaptations, together with their expected costs and benefits. Therefore, more research is needed to evaluate cost-effective adaptation options. In summary, this thesis adds to the large body of literature on the impacts of temperature and climate change on human health. It improves our understanding of the temperaturehealth relationship, and how this relationship will change as temperatures increase. Although the research is limited to one city, which restricts the generalisability of the findings, the methods and approaches developed in this thesis will be useful to other researchers studying temperature-health relationships and climate change impacts. The results may be helpful for decision-makers who develop public health adaptation strategies to minimise the health effects of extreme temperatures and climate change.

Effect of text type on near work-induced contrast adaptation in myopic and emmetropic young adults

Purpose Contrast adaptation has been speculated to be an error signal for emmetropization. Myopic children exhibit higher contrast adaptation than emmetropic children. This study aimed to determine whether contrast adaptation varies with the type of text viewed by emmetropic and myopic young adults. Methods Baseline contrast sensitivity was determined in 25 emmetropic and 25 spectacle-corrected myopic young adults for 0.5, 1.2, 2.7, 4.4, and 6.2 cycles per degree (cpd) horizontal sine wave gratings. The adults spent periods looking at a 6.2 cpd high-contrast horizontal grating and reading lines of English and Chinese text (these texts comprised 1.2 cpd row and 6 cpd stroke frequencies). The effects of these near tasks on contrast sensitivity were determined, with decreases in sensitivity indicating contrast adaptation. Results Contrast adaptation was affected by the near task (F2,672 = 43.0; P < 0.001). Adaptation was greater for the grating task (0.13 ± 0.17 log unit, averaged across all frequencies) than reading tasks, but there was no significant difference between the two reading tasks (English 0.05 ± 0.13 log unit versus Chinese 0.04 ± 0.13 log unit). The myopic group showed significantly greater adaptation (by 0.04, 0.04, and 0.05 log units for English, Chinese, and grating tasks, respectively) than the emmetropic group (F1,48 = 5.0; P = 0.03). Conclusions In young adults, reading Chinese text induced similar contrast adaptation as reading English text. Myopes exhibited greater contrast adaptation than emmetropes. Contrast adaptation, independent of text type, might be associated with myopia development.

Strong and bioactive tri-calcium phosphate scaffolds with tube-like macropores

Calcium phosphate ceramic scaffolds have been widely investigated for bone tissue engineering due to their excellent biocompatibility and biodegradation. Unfortunately, they have the shortcoming of low mechanical properties. In order to provide strong, bioactive, and biodegradable scaffolds, a new approach of infiltrating the macro-tube ABS (acrylontrile butadiene styrene) templates with a hydroxyapatite/bioactive glass mixed slurry was developed to fabricate porous Si-doped TCP (tri-calcium phosphate) scaffolds. The porous Si-doped TCP ceramics with a high porosity (~65%) and with interconnected macrotubes (~0.8mm in diameter) and micropores (5-100 m) had a high compressive strength (up to 14.68+0.2MPa), which was comparable to that of a trabecular bone and was much higher than those of pure TCP scaffolds. Additional cell attachment study and MTT cytotoxicity assay proved the bioactivity and biocompatibility of the new scaffolds. Thus a potential bioceramic material and a new approach to make the potential scaffolds were developed for bone tissue engineering.

Carbon, biodiversity and regional natural resource planning : towards high impact next generation plans

Given the increased importance of adaptation debates in global climate negotiations, pressure to achieve biodiversity, food and water security through managed landscape-scale adaptation will likely increase across the globe over the coming decade. In parallel, emerging market-based, terrestrial greenhouse gas abatement programs present a real opportunity to secure such adaptation to climate change through enhanced landscape resilience. Australia has an opportunity to take advantage of such programs through regional planning aspects of its governance arrangements for NRM. This paper explores necessary reforms to Australia's regional NRM planning systems to ensure that they will be better able to direct the nation's emerging GGA programs to secure enhanced landscape adaptation. © 2013 Planning Institute Australia.

Effect of culture conditions and calcium phosphate coating on ectopic bone formation

This study investigated the effect of a calcium phosphate (CaP) coating onto a polycaprolactone melt electrospun scaffold and in vitro culture conditions on ectopic bone formation in a subcutaneous rat model. The CaP coating resulted in an increased alkaline phosphatase activity (ALP) in ovine osteoblasts regardless of the culture conditions and this was also translated into higher levels of mineralisation. A subcutaneous implantation was performed and increasing ectopic bone formation was observed over time for the CaPcoated samples previously cultured in osteogenic media whereas the corresponding non-coated samples displayed a lag phase before bone formation occurred from 4 to 8 weeks post-implantation. Histology and immunohistochemistry revealed bone fill through the scaffolds 8 weeks post-implantation for coated and non-coated specimens and that ALP, osteocalcin and collagen 1 were present at the ossification front and in the bone tissues. Vascularisation in the vicinity of the bone tissues was also observed indicating that the newly formed bone was not deprived of oxygen and nutrients.We found that in vitro osteogenic induction was essential for achieving bone formation and CaP coating accelerated the osteogenic process. We conclude that high cell density and preservation of the collagenous and mineralised extracellular matrix secreted in vitro are factors of importance for ectopic bone formation.

Reactive species in RF plasma sputtering deposition of nanocrystalline calcium phosphate bio-active films

Optical emission of reactive plasma species during the synthesis of functionally graded calcium phosphate-based bioactive films has been investigated. The coatings have been deposited on Ti-6Al-4V orthopedic alloy by co-sputtering of hydroxyapatite (HA) and titanium targets in reactive plasmas of Ar + H2O gas mixtures. The species, responsible for the Ca-P-Ti film growth have been non-intrusively monitored in situ by a high-resolution optical emission spectroscopy (OES). It is revealed that the optical emission originating from CaO species dominates throughout the deposition process. The intensities of CaO, PO and CaPO species are strongly affected by variations of the operating pressure, applied RF power, and DC substrate bias. The optical emission intensity (OEI) of reaction species can efficiently be controlled by addition of H2O reactant.

Cross cultural adaptation and validation of a Spanish version of the lower limb functional index

Background: The Lower Limb Functional Index (LLFI) is a relatively recently published regional outcome measure. The development article showed the LLFI had robust and valid clinimetric properties with sound psychometric and practical characteristics when compared to the Lower Limb Extremity Scale (LEFS) criterion standard. Objective: The purpose of this study was cross cultural adaptation and validation of the LLFI Spanish-version (LLFI-Sp) in a Spanish population. Methods: A two stage observational study was conducted. The LLFI was initially cross-culturally adapted to Spanish through double forward and single backward translation; then subsequently validated for the psychometric characteristics of validity, internal consistency, reliability, error score and factor structure. Participants (n = 136) with various lower limb conditions of >12 weeks duration completed the LLFI-Sp, Western Ontario and McMaster University Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) and the Euroqol Health Questionnaire 5 Dimensions (EQ-5D-3 L). The full sample was employed to determine internal consistency, concurrent criterion validity, construct validity and factor structure; a subgroup (n = 45) determined reliability at seven days concurrently completing a global rating of change scale. Results: The LLFI-Sp demonstrated high but not excessive internal consistency (α = 0.91) and high reliability (ICC = 0.96). The factor structure was one-dimensional which supported the construct validity. Criterion validity with the WOMAC was strong (r = 0.77) and with the EQ-5D-3 L fair and inversely correlated (r = -0.62). The study limitations included the lack of longitudinal data and the determination of responsiveness. Conclusions: The LLFI-Sp supports the findings of the original English version as being a valid lower limb regional outcome measure. It demonstrated similar psychometric properties for internal consistency, validity, reliability, error score and factor structure.

Cross-cultural adaptation, reliability and validity of the Spanish version of the upper limb functional index

Background The Upper Limb Functional Index (ULFI) is an internationally widely used outcome measure with robust, valid psychometric properties. The purpose of study is to develop and validate a ULFI Spanish-version (ULFI-Sp). Methods A two stage observational study was conducted. The ULFI was cross-culturally adapted to Spanish through double forward and backward translations, the psychometric properties were then validated. Participants (n = 126) with various upper limb conditions of >12 weeks duration completed the ULFI-Sp, QuickDASH and the Euroqol Health Questionnaire 5 Dimensions (EQ-5D-3 L). The full sample determined internal consistency, concurrent criterion validity, construct validity and factor structure; a subgroup (n = 35) determined reliability at seven days. Results The ULFI-Sp demonstrated high internal consistency (α = 0.94) and reliability (r = 0.93). Factor structure was one-dimensional and supported construct validity. Criterion validity with the EQ-5D-3 L was fair and inversely correlated (r = −0.59). The QuickDASH data was unavailable for analysis due to excessive missing responses. Conclusions The ULFI-Sp is a valid upper limb outcome measure with similar psychometric properties to the English language version.

Profiling high-range speeding offenders : investigating criminal history, personal characteristics, traffic offences, and crash history

This paper reports profiling information for speeding offenders and is part of a larger project that assessed the deterrent effects of increased speeding penalties in Queensland, Australia, using a total of 84,456 speeding offences. The speeding offenders were classified into three groups based on the extent and severity of an index offence: once-only low-rang offenders; repeat high-range offenders; and other offenders. The three groups were then compared in terms of personal characteristics, traffic offences, crash history and criminal history. Results revealed a number of significant differences between repeat high-range offenders and those in the other two offender groups. Repeat high-range speeding offenders were more likely to be male, younger, hold a provisional and a motorcycle licence, to have committed a range of previous traffic offences, to have a significantly greater likelihood of crash involvement, and to have been involved in multiple-vehicle crashes than drivers in the other two offender types. Additionally, when a subset of offenders’ criminal histories were examined, results revealed that repeat high-range speeding offenders were also more likely to have committed a previous criminal offence compared to once only low-range and other offenders and that 55.2% of the repeat high-range offenders had a criminal history. They were also significantly more likely to have committed drug offences and offences against order than the once only low-range speeding offenders, and significantly more likely to have committed regulation offences than those in the other offenders group. Overall, the results indicate that speeding offenders are not an homogeneous group and that, therefore, more tailored and innovative sanctions should be considered and evaluated for high-range recidivist speeders because they are a high-risk road user group.

Multi-agent systems for modeling high penetration photovoltaic system impacts in distribution networks

This paper reviews the use of multi-agent systems to model the impacts of high levels of photovoltaic (PV) system penetration in distribution networks and presents some preliminary data obtained from the Perth Solar City high penetration PV trial. The Perth Solar City trial consists of a low voltage distribution feeder supplying 75 customers where 29 consumers have roof top photovoltaic systems. Data is collected from smart meters at each consumer premises, from data loggers at the transformer low voltage (LV) side and from a nearby distribution network SCADA measurement point on the high voltage side (HV) side of the transformer. The data will be used to progressively develop MAS models.

Effect of moderate- and high-intensity acute exercise on appetite in obese individuals

Purpose The effect of acute exercise, and exercise intensity, on appetite control in obese individuals requires further study. The aim of this study was to compare the effects of acute isocaloric bouts (250 kcal) of high-intensity intermittent cycling (HIIC) and moderate-intensity continuous cycling (MICC) or short-duration HIIC (S-HIIC) (125 kcal) and a resting control condition on the appetite hormone responses, subjective feelings of appetite, energy intake (EI), and food reward in overweight/obese individuals. Methods This study is a randomized crossover study on 12 overweight/obese volunteers. Participants were assigned to the control, MICC, HIIC, and S-HIIC conditions, 1 wk apart, in a counterbalanced order. Exercise was performed 1 h after a standard breakfast. An ad libitum test lunch was served 3 h after breakfast. Fasting/postprandial plasma samples of insulin, acylated ghrelin, polypeptide YY3–36, and glucagon-like peptide 1 and subjective feelings of appetite were measured every 30 min for 3 h. Nutrient and taste preferences were measured at the beginning and end of each condition using the Leeds Food Preference Questionnaire. Results Insulin levels were significantly reduced, and glucagon-like peptide 1 levels significantly increased during all exercise bouts compared with those during rest. Acylated ghrelin plasma levels were lower in the MICC and HIIC, but not in S-HIIC, compared with those in control. There were no significant differences for polypeptide YY3–36 plasma levels, hunger or fullness ratings, EI, or food reward. Conclusions Our findings suggest that, in overweight/obese individuals, isocaloric bouts of moderate- or high-intensity exercise lead to a similar appetite response. This strengthens previous findings in normal-weight individuals that acute exercise, even at high intensity, does not induce any known physiological adaptation that would lead to increased EI.

Exploration of the fundamental equilibrium behaviour of calcium exchange with weak acid cation resins

This study evaluated the complexity of calcium ion exchange with sodium exchanged weak acid cation resin (DOW MAC-3). Exchange equilibria recorded for a range of different solution normalities revealed profiles which were represented by conventional “L” or “H” type isotherms at low values of equilibrium concentration (Ce) of calcium ions, plus a superimposed region of increasing calcium uptake was observed at high Ce values. The loading of calcium ions was determined to be ca. 53.5 to 58.7 g/kg of resin when modelling only the sorption curve created at low Ce values,which exhibited a well-defined plateau. The calculated calcium ion loading capacity for DOWMAC-3 resin appeared to correlate with the manufacturer's recommendation. The phenomenon of super equivalent ion exchange (SEIX) was observed when the “driving force” for the exchange process was increased in excess of 2.25 mmol calcium ions per gram of resin in the starting solution. This latter event was explained in terms of displacement of sodium ions from sodium hydroxide solution which remained in the resin bead following the initial conversion of the as supplied “H+” exchanged resin sites to the “Na+” version required for softening studies. Evidence for hydrolysis of a small fraction of the sites on the sodium exchanged resin surface was noted. The importance of carefully choosing experimental parameters was discussed especially in relation to application of the Langmuir–Vageler expression. This latter model which compared the ratio of the initial calcium ion concentration in solution to resin mass, versus final equilibrium loading of the calcium ions on the resin; was discovered to be an excellent means of identifying the progress of the calcium–sodium ion exchange process. Moreover, the Langmuir–Vageler model facilitated standardization of various calcium–sodium ion exchange experiments which allowed systematic experimental design.