Evolution of fiscal policy in the Caribbean: based on data for the period 1987-1996

Includes bibliography

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Energy and Health sectors in Trinidad and Tobago

This report analyses the agriculture, energy, and health sectors in Trinidad and Tobago to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change on Trinidad and Tobago. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help advance the Caribbean subregion closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated impacts of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An exploration of various adaptation strategies was also undertaken for each sector using standard evaluation techniques. The study of the impact of climate change on the agriculture sector focused on root crops, green vegetables and fisheries. For these sectors combined, the cumulative loss under the A2 scenario is calculated as approximately B$2.24 and approximately B$1.72 under the B2 scenario by 2050. This is equivalent to 1.37% and 1.05% of the 2008 GDP under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. Given the potential for significant damage to the agriculture sector a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these a short-list of 10 potential options were selected by applying 10 evaluation criteria. All of the adaptation strategies showed positive benefits. The analysis indicate that the options with the highest net benefits are: (1) Building on-farm water storage, (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Using drip irrigation. Other attractive options include water harvesting. The policy decisions by governments should include these assessments, the omitted intangible benefits, as well as the provision of other social goals such as employment. The analysis of the energy sector has shown that the economic impact of climate change during 2011-2050 is similar under the A2 (US$142.88 million) and B2 (US$134.83 million) scenarios with A2 scenario having a slightly higher cost (0.737% of 2009 GDP) than the B2 scenario (0.695% of 2009 GDP) for the period. On the supply side, analyses indicate that Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector will be susceptible to the climate change policies of major energy-importing countries (the United States of America and China), and especially to their renewable energy strategies. Implementation of foreign oil substitution policy by the United States of America will result in a decline in Trinidad and Tobago’s Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) export (equivalent to 2.2% reduction in 2009 GDP) unless an alternative market is secured for the lost United States of America market. China, with its rapid economic growth and the highest population in the world, offers a potential replacement market for Trinidad and Tobago’s LNG export. In this context the A2 scenario will offer the best option for Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector. The cost-benefit analysis undertaken on selected adaptation strategies reveal that the benefit-cost ratio of replacing electric water heaters with solar water heaters is the most cost-effective. It was also found that the introduction of Compact Fluorescent Light (CFL) and Variable Refrigerant Volume (VRV) air conditioners surpasses the projected cost of increased electricity consumption due to climate change, and provides an economic rationale for the adoption of these adaptation options even in a situation of increased electricity consumption occasioned by climate change. Finally, the conversion of motor fleets to Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) is a cost-effective adaptation option for the transport sector, although it has a high initial cost of implementation and the highest per capita among the four adaptation options evaluated. To investigate the effect of climate change on the health sector dengue fever, leptospirosis, food borne illnesses, and gastroenteritis were examined. The total number of new dengue cases for the period 2008 to 2050 was 204,786 for BAU, 153,725 for A2 and 131,890 for the B2 scenario. With regard to the results for leptospirosis, A2 and B2 seem to be following a similar path with total number of new cases in the A2 scenario being 9,727 and 9,218 cases under the B2 scenario. Although incidence levels in the BAU scenario coincided with those of A2 and B2 prior to 2020, they are somewhat lower post 2020. A similar picture emerges for the scenarios as they relate to food-borne illnesses and to gastroenteritis. Specifically for food-borne illnesses, the BAU scenario recorded 27,537 cases, the A2 recorded 28,568 cases and the B2 recorded 28,679 cases. The focus on the selected sources of morbidity in the health sector has highlighted the fact that the vulnerability of the country’s health sector to climate change does not depend solely on exogenously derived impacts, but also on the behaviour and practices among the population. It is clear that the vulnerability which became evident in the analysis of the impacts on dengue fever, leptospirosis and food-borne illnesses is not restricted solely to climate or other external factors. The most important adaptation strategy being recommended targets lifestyle, behaviour and attitude changes. The population needs to be encouraged to alter their behaviours and practices so as to minimise their exposure to harmful outcomes as it relates to the incidence of these diseases.

An economic assessment of the impact of climate change on the health sector in Montserrat

Climate change has the potential to impact on global, regional, and national disease burdens both directly and indirectly. Projecting and valuing these health impacts is important not only in terms of assessing the overall impact of climate change on various parts of the world, but also in terms of ensuring that national and regional decision-making institutions have access to the data necessary to guide investment decisions and future policy design. This report contributes to the research focusing on projecting and valuing the impacts of climate change in the Caribbean by projecting the climate change-induced excess disease burden for two climate change scenarios in Montserrat for the period 2010 - 2050, and by estimating the monetary value associated with this excess disease burden. The diseases initially considered in this report are variety of vector and water-borne impacts and other miscellaneous conditions; specifically, malaria, dengue fever, gastroenteritis/diarrheal disease, schistosomiasis, leptospirosis, ciguatera poisoning, meningococcal meningitis, and cardio-respiratory diseases. Disease projections were based on derived baseline incidence and mortality rates, available dose-response relationships found in the published literature, climate change scenario population projections for the A2 and B2 IPCC SRES scenario families, and annual temperature and precipitation anomalies as projected by the downscaled ECHAM4 global climate model. Monetary valuation was based on a transfer value of statistical life approach with a modification for morbidity. Using discount rates of 1%, 2% and 4%, results show mean annual costs (morbidity and mortality) ranges of $0.61 million (in the B2 scenario, discounted at 4% annually) – $1 million (in the A2 scenario, discounted at 1% annually) for Montserrat. These costs are compared to adaptation cost scenarios involving increased direct spending on per capita health care. This comparison reveals a high benefit-cost ratio suggesting that moderate costs will deliver significant benefit in terms of avoided health burdens in the period 2010-2050. The methodology and results suggest that a focus on coordinated data collection and improved monitoring represents a potentially important no regrets adaptation strategy for Montserrat. Also the report highlights the need for this to be part of a coordinated regional response that avoids duplication in spending.

An assessment of the economic impact Of climate change on the health sector in Saint Lucia

Climate change has the potential to impact on global, regional, and national disease burdens both directly and indirectly. Projecting and valuing these health impacts is important not only in terms of assessing the overall impact of climate change on various parts of the world, but also of ensuring that national and regional decision-making institutions have access to the data necessary to guide investment decisions and future policy design. This report contributes to the research focusing on projecting and valuing the impacts of climate change in the Caribbean by projecting the climate change-induced excess disease burden for two climate change scenarios in Saint Lucia for the period 2010 - 2050, and by estimating the non-market, statistical life-based costs associated with this excess disease burden. The diseases initially considered in this report are a variety of vector and water-borne impacts and other miscellaneous conditions; specifically, malaria, dengue fever, gastroenteritis/diarrhoeal disease, schistosomiasis, leptospirosis, ciguatera poisoning, meningococcal meningitis, and cardio-respiratory diseases. Disease projections were based on derived baseline incidence and mortality rates, available dose-response relationships found in the published literature, climate change scenario population projections for the A2 and B2 IPCC SRES scenario families, and annual temperature and precipitation anomalies as projected by the downscaled ECHAM4 global climate model. Monetary valuation was based on a transfer value of statistical life approach with a modification for morbidity. Using discount rates of 1, 2, and 4%, results show mean annual costs (morbidity and mortality) ranges of $80.2 million (in the B2 scenario, discounted at 4% annually) -$182.4 million (in the A2 scenario, discounted at 1% annually) for St. Lucia.1 These costs are compared to adaptation cost scenarios involving direct and indirect interventions in health care. This comparison reveals a high benefit-cost ratio suggesting that moderate costs will deliver significant benefit in terms of avoided health costs from 2010-2050. In this context indirect interventions target sectors other than healthcare (e.g. water supply). It is also important to highlight that interventions can target both the supply of health infrastructure (including health status and disease monitoring), and households. It is suggested that a focus on coordinated data collection and improved monitoring represents a potentially important no regrets adaptation strategy for St Lucia. Also, the need for this to be part of a coordinated regional response that avoids duplication in spending is highlighted.

Decentralization and regionalization: dynamics and conditioning factors for the implementation of the Health Pact in Brazil

Decentralization and regionalization represent constitutional guidelines for the organization of the Unified Health System, which in the last 20 years has required the adoption of mechanisms to coordinate and accommodate federative tensions in Brazil's healthcare sector. This paper analyzes the national implementation of the Health Pact between 2006 and 2010 involving a strategy that reconfigures intergovernmental relations in the sector. The study involved the analysis of documents, official data and interviews with federal, state and municipal managers in the Brazilian states. The content of the national proposal is initially discussed, including its implications for health policy. The different rhythms and degrees of implementation of the Health Pact are then reviewed, with respect to adherence by states and municipalities and the formation of Regional Management Boards. Lastly, the conditioning factors for the multiplicity of experiences observed in the country are identified and the challenges facing progress toward a decentralized and regionalized health system in Brazil are discussed.

The Environmental Theme in Representations and Practices of Family Health Professionals in the Municipality of Manaus - State of Amazonas/Brazil

There are abundant scientific evidences showing that the increased risk of exposure to diseases is a consequence of anthropogenic environmental changes. In the Family Health Strategy, tasks with a clear environmental focus are prescribed, indicating to the professional teams that they should consider these aspects in their health practices. The objective of this research was to study representations and practices of Family Health Professionals of Manaus - State of Amazonas, Northern Brazil - about environmental issues and their interface with public health. Data were collected by means of participant observation and semi-structured interviews, and the qualitative analysis was carried out through Content Analysis and Methodological Triangulation. The results showed that most professionals do not understand the environment in a systemic way, even though they recognize the great impact that environmental factors have on human health; as interventions, the educational practices follow traditional methodologies and focus on blaming the individual and on the simple transmission of knowledge; the professionals' relationship with the community is limited to personal and/or collective care. It is concluded that in order to the Family Health Strategy to contribute to restructure the system, it is essential to redirect this new health policy model so that it becomes effective as a social and environmental practice.

Reorganization of secondary and tertiary health care levels: impact on the outcomes of oral cancer screening in the São Paulo State, Brazil

This study presents the strategies for prevention and early detection of oral cancer by means of screening in the elderly population of São Paulo, the richest and the most populous state of Brazil. This research was a retrospective longitudinal study based on the analysis of secondary data. The variables - number of participating cities, coverage of screening, and number of suspicious and confirmed cases of oral cancer - were divided into two periods: 2001-2004 and 2005-2008. Data were analyzed statistically by the chi-square test at 5% significance level. The implementation of a nationwide public oral health policy in 2004 and the reorganization of the secondary and tertiary health care were evaluated as mediator factors able to interfere in the achieved outcomes. From 2001 to 2008, 2,229,273 oral examinations were performed. There was an addition of 205 participating cities by the end of the studied period (p<0.0001). The coverage of oral cancer screening increased from 4.1% to 16% (p<0.0001). There was a decrease in the number of suspicious lesions (from 9% in 2005 to 5% in 2008) (p<0.0001) and in the rate of confirmed oral cancer cases per 100,000 examinations (from 20.89 in 2001 to 10.40 in 2008) (p<0.0001). After 8 years of screening, there was a decrease in the number of suspicious lesions and confirmed cases of oral cancer in the population. The reorganization of secondary and tertiary health care levels of oral care seems to have contributed to modify these numbers, having a positive impact on the outcomes of oral cancer screening in the São Paulo State.

COMPARATIVE STUDY OF INFORMAL HEALTH CARE NETWORKS AND ELDERLY HEALTH STATUS IN ARGENTINA AND CUBA

This study will explore familial and friend support networks and living arrangements among elderly individuals in Latin America and the impact that this type of support has on the health of the elderly individuals in the countries of interest. Using data from the Survey on Health and Well-Being of Elders (SABE) from 1999-2000, I will explore which type of support has a larger impact on overall health. I will also measure differences in unmet needs for certain health services. This topic is particularly interesting because it will help to uncover what policies are best for aiding in the healthcare of the elderly in aging population. Lastly, the investigation of this topic will allow me to draw conclusions about the most effective means of social and public policy for the elderly community and provide me with information about the role of both informal provisions of support from family and friends, and formal provisions of support from the government. My primary focus will be on Argentina, using Buenos Aires as the sample city, and Cuba, using Havana as the sample city. These two countries have increasingly aging populations, poorer resources and vast inequalities, but, extremely different political, economic and cultural situations. Comparing the two countries will further allow me to determine correlations between health and the existence of support networks, as well as provide me with information to make more general claims that may be of use in the United States. Argentina is particularly interesting to me because of my abroad experience and homestay experience with an older Argentine woman who lived alone but depended upon her family for many healthcare needs, doctors’ visits and general well-being. In Argentina, I experienced a different form of living than I am used to in the United States, where many older individuals or couples live in nursing homes or assisted living facilities rather than alone or with family. The changing economic climate of the two countries coupled with labor patterns of women returning to work at rapid rates indicates that policies cannot just rely on either the formal or informal sector but require a combination of the two sectors working together.This paper will first give background on the difference in the economies and the health care systems in Argentina and Cuba and will show why it interesting to study and compare these two countries. I will then discuss the health status of the elderly in each population as well as discuss the informal care networks and the role of family in each country. This section will then be followed by a description of the data and methods used. I will end by drawing conclusions about the study and the outcomes, and then I will attempt to make suggestions about effective health care policies for the elderly.

Birth, Survival and Growth of Small and Medium Sized Enterprises in Poland: 1990-1994

This research is based on a unique and extensive database which tracks the employment, payroll and sales of individual Polish firms for the period 1990 to 1995. This allowed the authors to calculate the birth, survival and growth rates for different categories of enterprises (state-owned, cooperative, private, foreign-owned and privatised after 1990) and regions. These data match data collected in the United States, making it possible to compare the Polish situation with that of the state of Michigan. Analysis of the data and lessons from the Poland-Michigan comparisons provide a solid basis for the formulation of new policy recommendations for Poland. Allowing for certain important differences, Poland would still seem to need a higher rate of births of new companies. New small private companies and companies with foreign capital can be seen as the main source of job creation and economic revitalisation. To strengthen positive trends in the economy, Poland should create a model of institutional support for both potential entrepreneurs and foreign investors.

Resisting Postmodernity: Swedish social policy in the 1990s

The purpose of this paper is to introduce ideas that have emerged during the course of writing a book on Swedish welfare in the 1990s. The book is the result of many years of writing about two subjects: Swedish drug policy and the Swedish welfare state. The one very specialised, the other, more general. I first became interested in Swedish drug policy on a research visit to Örebro Län in 1986. A social worker showed me a copy of the county's drug policy programme and explained the significance of the 'restrictive line'. I have spent the years since that visit, trying to understand and explain the Swedish goal of a drug-free society (Gould 1988, 1994, 1996b). I only began to write about the welfare state in Sweden in the early 1990s, just as things were beginning to go wrong for the economy (Gould 1993a, 1993b, 1996a, 1999). For the last few years I have intended to write a book on the events covered by the period 1991-1998 - the years of a Bourgeois and a Social Democratic Government -which would bring the two halves of my work together. Material for this study has been accumulated over many years. A number of research visits have been made; large numbers of academics, politicians, civil servants, journalists, unemployed people, social workers and their clients have been interviewed; and extensive use has been made of academic, administrative and public libraries. Since September 1991 I have systematically collected articles from Dagens Nyheter about social services, social insurance, health care, employment, social issues and problems, the economy and politics. The journal Riksdag och Departement (Parliament and Ministry), which summarises a wide range of public documents, has been invaluable. Friends and informal contacts have also given me insights into the Swedish way of life. The new book is based upon all of these experiences. This paper will begin with a brief account of major global social and economic changes that have occurred in the last twenty years. This is intended to provide a background to the more recent changes that have occurred in Swedish society in the last decade. It will be suggested that the changes in Sweden, particularly in the field of welfare, have been less severe than elsewhere and that this is due to political, institutional and cultural resistance. The paper will conclude by arguing that Sweden, as an exemplar of an Apollonian modern society, has had much to fear from the Dionysian characteristics of postmodernity.

Asthma and allergies: is the farming environment (still) protective in Poland? The GABRIEL Advanced Studies

BACKGROUND Evidence exists that a farming environment in childhood may provide protection against atopic respiratory disease. In the GABRIEL project based in Poland and Alpine regions of Germany, Austria and Switzerland, we aimed to assess whether a farming environment in childhood is protective against allergic diseases in Poland and whether specific exposures explain any protective effect. METHODS In rural Poland, 23 331 families of schoolchildren completed a questionnaire enquiring into farming practices and allergic diseases (Phase I). A subsample (n = 2586) participated in Phase II involving a more detailed questionnaire on specific farm exposures with objective measures of atopy. RESULTS Farming differed between Poland and the Alpine centres; in the latter, cattle farming was prevalent, whereas in Poland 18% of village farms kept ≥1 cow and 34% kept ≥1 pig. Polish children in villages had lower prevalences of asthma and hay fever than children from towns, and in the Phase II population, farm children had a reduced risk of atopy measured by IgE (aOR = 0.72, 95% CI 0.57, 0.91) and skin prick test (aOR = 0.65, 95% CI 0.50, 0.86). Early-life contact with grain was inversely related to the risk of atopy measured by IgE (aOR = 0.66, 95% CI 0.47, 0.92) and appeared to explain part of the farming effect. CONCLUSION While farming in Poland differed from that in the Alpine areas as did the exposure-response associations, we found in communities engaged in small-scale, mixed farming, there was a protective farming effect against objective measures of atopy potentially related to contact with grain or associated farm activities.

Improving Health Literacy in Connecticut: A Prescription for Healthy Lives and Communities

The Practicum Project is a supervised service-learning experience that integrates curriculum with hands-on experience in a public health setting. All 2nd year students are expected to work collaboratively in assessing the extent, causes and public health responses to a selected public health problem confronting citizens of Connecticut. The focal topic for the 2006 Project was Health Literacy in Connecticut. During this past spring, 17 students of our program, working alongside and in partnership with more than 75 community-based stakeholders across Connecticut, completed over 1800 hours of service-learning in pursuit of answers to 3 questions: Can the present and future burden of health literacy be estimated for Connecticut? What is the current capacity of Connecticut’s health and social service system to halt the crisis we confront today? Can new policy and regulatory strategies be put forth to reduce the severity and scope of the problem? This occasion and the accompanying report mark the completion of their project and acknowledge the considerable contributions that many have made to the success of this educational experience. Through those combined efforts, students gained experience and skill addressing one of the most significant public health issues of our time; also, they gained insight into the breadth and capacity of our public health system and established invaluable relationships with public health practitioners, agencies and institutions around the state. Their report documents a rich campus-community partnership to advance public health goals.

Texas Department of Health organizational structure changes: A reflection of public health policy and agency expansion, September 1, 1946--June 30, 1994

The premise of this study is that changes in the agency's organizational structure reflect changes in government public health policy. Based on this premise, this study tracks the changes in the organizational structure and the overall expansion of the Texas Department of Health to understand the evolution of changing public health priorities in state policy from September 1, 1946 through June 30, 1994, a period of growth and new responsibilities. It includes thirty-seven observations of organizational structure as depicted by organizational charts of the agency and/or adapted from public documents. ^ The major questions answered are, what are the changes in the organizational structure, why did they occur and, what are the policy priorities reflected in these changes in and across the various time periods. ^ The analysis of the study included a thorough review of the organizational structure of the agency for the time-span of the study, the formulation of the criteria to be used in ascertaining the changes, the delineation of the changes in the organizational structure and comparison of the observations sequentially to characterize the change, the discovery of reasons for the structural changes (financial, statutory - federal and state, social and political factors), and the determination of policy priorities for each time period and their relation to the expansion and evolution of the agency. ^ The premise that the organizational structure of the agency and the changes over time reflect government public health policy and agency expansion was found to be true. ^

A comparative analysis of CHIP Perinatal policy in twelve states

The purpose of this comparative analysis of CHIP Perinatal policy (42 CFR § 457) was to provide a basis for understanding the variation in policy outputs across the twelve states that, as of June 2007, implemented the Unborn Child rule. This Department of Health and Human Services regulation expanded in 2002 the definition of “child” to include the period from conception to birth, allowing states to consider an unborn child a “targeted low-income child” and therefore eligible for SCHIP coverage. ^ Specific study aims were to (1) describe typologically the structural and contextual features of the twelve states that adopted a CHIP Perinatal policy; (2) describe and differentiate among the various designs of CHIP Perinatal policy implemented in the states; and (3) develop a conceptual model that links the structural and contextual features of the adopting states to differences in the forms the policy assumed, once it was implemented. ^ Secondary data were collected from publicly available information sources to describe characteristics of states’ political system, health system, economic system, sociodemographic context and implemented policy attributes. I posited that socio-demographic differences, political system differences and health system differences would directly account for the observed differences in policy output among the states. ^ Exploratory data analysis techniques, which included median polishing and multidimensional scaling, were employed to identify compelling patterns in the data. Scaled results across model components showed that economic system was most closely related to policy output, followed by health system. Political system and socio-demographic characteristics were shown to be weakly associated with policy output. Goodness-of-fit measures for MDS solutions implemented across states and model components, in one- and two-dimensions, were very good. ^ This comparative policy analysis of twelve states that adopted and implemented HHS Regulation 42 C.F.R. § 457 contributes to existing knowledge in three areas: CHIP Perinatal policy, public health policy and policy sciences. First, the framework allows for the identification of CHIP Perinatal program design possibilities and provides a basis for future studies that evaluate policy impact or performance. Second, studies of policy determinants are not well represented in the health policy literature. Thus, this study contributes to the development of the literature in public health policy. Finally, the conceptual framework for policy determinants developed in this study suggests new ways for policy makers and practitioners to frame policy arguments, encouraging policy change or reform. ^

The interorganizational implementation of state health policy: A network approach

This is an implementation analysis of three consecutive state health policies whose goal was to improve access to maternal and child health services in Texas from 1983 to 1986. Of particular interest is the choice of the unit of analysis, the policy subsystem, and the network approach to analysis. The network approach analyzes and compares the structure and decision process of six policy subsystems in order to explain program performance. Both changes in state health policy as well as differences in implementation contexts explain evolution of the program administrative and service unit, the policy subsystem. And, in turn, the evolution of the policy subsystem explains changes in program performance. ^