Modeling public policies in Latin America and the Caribbean

Prólogo de Alicia Bárcena y Santiago Levy

Trade and sustainable development: spatial distribution of trade policies impacts on agriculture

Incluye Bibliografía

Lachmann e a teoria do processo de mercado: entre o pensamento austríaco e o pós-keynesiano

Pós-graduação em Economia - FCLAR

A Response to Seth H. Giertz

There are two aspects of Seth Giertz's excellent chapter that I want to talk about. One is slightly technical; I want to try to provide some explanation for why estimating elasticity of taxable income (ETI) is so difficult. I think this difficulty is unappreciated by nonspecialists, who are quick to latch onto a favorite estimate without understanding the weaknesses in the estimation. The other aspect is a bit more philosophical and addresses the different functions of the partial equilibrium analysis done here and the general equilibrium work done a few years back in the macro group at the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Perhaps surprisingly, I strongly endorse the partial equilibrium approach taken here for the comparison of tax reforms.

Analysis of the concordance rates between core needle biopsy and surgical excision in patients with breast cancer

Objective: To evaluate whether immunohistochemical marker studies performed on core needle biopsy (CNB) specimens accurately reflect the marker status of the tumor obtained from final surgical specimen. Methods: This was a retrospective study that used the database of the Division of Mastology of the Hospital das Clinicas, Sao Paulo, Brazil. Sixty-nine patients submitted to ultrasound-guided CNB diagnosed with breast cancer were retrospectively analyzed. Immunohistochemistry (IHC) on core biopsy specimens was compared to that of excisional biopsy regarding estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR), human epidermal gowth factor receptor 2 gene (HER2), p53, and Ki67. The analysis of the concordance between CNB and surgical biopsy was performed using the kappa (k) coefficient (95% CI). Results: A perfect concordance between the labeling in the surgical specimens and the preoperative biopsies in p53 (k = 1.0; 95% CI: 0.76-1.0) was identified. There was an almost perfect concordance for ER (k = 0.89; 95% CI: 0.65-1.0) and a substantial concordance for PR (k = 0.70; 95% CI: 0.46-0.93). HER2 (k = 0.61; 95% CI: 0.38-0.84) and Ki-67 (k = 0.74; 95% CI: 0.58-0.98) obtained a substantial concordance this analysis. Conclusion: The results of this study indicate that the immunohistochemical analysis of ER, PR, Ki-67, and p53 from core biopsy specimens provided results that accurately reflect the marker status of the tumor. The concordance rate of HER2 was less consistent; although it produced substantial concordance, values were very close to moderate concordance.

A mixed methods inquiry into the political economy of agriculture and rural areas in Lebanon

The present work, then, is concerned with the forgotten elements of the Lebanese economy, agriculture and rural development. It investigates the main problematic which arose from these forgotten components, in particular the structure of the agricultural sector, production technology, income distribution, poverty, food security, territorial development and local livelihood strategies. It will do so using quantitative Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modeling and a qualitative phenomenological case study analysis, both embedded in a critical review of the historical development of the political economy of Lebanon, and a structural analysis of its economy. The research shows that under-development in Lebanese rural areas is not due to lack of resources, but rather is the consequence of political choices. It further suggests that agriculture – in both its mainstream conventional and its innovative locally initiated forms of production – still represents important potential for inducing economic growth and development. In order to do so, Lebanon has to take full advantage of its human and territorial capital, by developing a rural development strategy based on two parallel sets of actions: one directed toward the support of local rural development initiatives, and the other directed toward intensive form of production. In addition to its economic returns, such a strategy would promote social and political stability.

Essays in Macroeconomics

The dissertation consists of four papers that aim at providing new contributions in the field of macroeconomics, monetary policy and financial stability. The first paper proposes a new Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with credit frictions and a banking sector to study the pro-cyclicality of credit and the role of different prudential regulatory frameworks in affecting business cycle fluctuations and in restoring macroeconomic and financial stability. The second paper develops a simple DSGE model capable of evaluating the effects of large purchases of treasuries by central banks. This theoretical framework is employed to evaluate the impact on yields and the macroeconomy of large purchases of medium- and long-term government bonds recently implemented in the US and UK. The third paper studies the effects of ECB communications about unconventional monetary policy operations on the perceived sovereign risk of Italy over the last five years. The empirical results are derived from both an event-study analysis and a GARCH model, which uses Italian long-term bond futures to disentangle expected from unexpected policy actions. The fourth paper proposes a DSGE model with an endogenous term structure of interest rates, which is able to replicate the stylized facts regarding the yield curve and the term premium in the US over the period 1987:3-2011:3, without compromising its ability to match macro dynamics.

Estimation of Quasi-Rational DSGE Models

Small-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium have been treated as the benchmark of much of the monetary policy literature, given their ability to explain the impact of monetary policy on output, inflation and financial markets. One cause of the empirical failure of New Keynesian models is partially due to the Rational Expectations (RE) paradigm, which entails a tight structure on the dynamics of the system. Under this hypothesis, the agents are assumed to know the data genereting process. In this paper, we propose the econometric analysis of New Keynesian DSGE models under an alternative expectations generating paradigm, which can be regarded as an intermediate position between rational expectations and learning, nameley an adapted version of the "Quasi-Rational" Expectatations (QRE) hypothesis. Given the agents' statistical model, we build a pseudo-structural form from the baseline system of Euler equations, imposing that the length of the reduced form is the same as in the `best' statistical model.

Stochastic foundations of dynamic trade and labor market models

This dissertation consists of three self-contained papers that are related to two main topics. In particular, the first and third studies focus on labor market modeling, whereas the second essay presents a dynamic international trade setup.rnrnIn Chapter "Expenses on Labor Market Reforms during Transitional Dynamics", we investigate the arising costs of a potential labor market reform from a government point of view. To analyze various effects of unemployment benefits system changes, this chapter develops a dynamic model with heterogeneous employed and unemployed workers.rn rnIn Chapter "Endogenous Markup Distributions", we study how markup distributions adjust when a closed economy opens up. In order to perform this analysis, we first present a closed-economy general-equilibrium industry dynamics model, where firms enter and exit markets, and then extend our analysis to the open-economy case.rn rnIn Chapter "Unemployment in the OECD - Pure Chance or Institutions?", we examine effects of aggregate shocks on the distribution of the unemployment rates in OECD member countries.rn rnIn all three chapters we model systems that behave randomly and operate on stochastic processes. We therefore exploit stochastic calculus that establishes clear methodological links between the chapters.

Safety of Active Implantable Devices during MRI Examinations: A Finite Element Analysis of an Implantable Pump

The goal of this study was to propose a general numerical analysis methodology to evaluate the magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-safety of active implants. Numerical models based on the finite element (FE) technique were used to estimate if the normal operation of an active device was altered during MRI imaging. An active implanted pump was chosen to illustrate the method. A set of controlled experiments were proposed and performed to validate the numerical model. The calculated induced voltages in the important electronic components of the device showed dependence with the MRI field strength. For the MRI radiofrequency fields, significant induced voltages of up to 20 V were calculated for a 0.3T field-strength MRI. For the 1.5 and 3.0T MRIs, the calculated voltages were insignificant. On the other hand, induced voltages up to 11 V were calculated in the critical electronic components for the 3.0T MRI due to the gradient fields. Values obtained in this work reflect to the worst case situation which is virtually impossible to achieve in normal scanning situations. Since the calculated voltages may be removed by appropriate protection circuits, no critical problems affecting the normal operation of the pump were identified. This study showed that the proposed methodology helps the identification of the possible incompatibilities between active implants and MR imaging, and can be used to aid the design of critical electronic systems to ensure MRI-safety

STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS OF THE TRANSCRIPTION PRODUCTS OF A TEMPERATURE-SENSITIVE PHENOTYPIC MUTANT OF MOLONEY SARCOMA VIRUS--MUSV TS110

Cells infected with a temperature sensitive phenotypic mutant of Moloney sarcoma virus (MuSVts110) exhibit a transformed phenotype at 33('(DEGREES)) and synthesize two virus specific proteins, p85('gag-mos), a gag-mos fusion protein and p58('gag), a truncated gag precursor protein (the gag gene codes for viral structural proteins and mos is the MuSV transforming gene). At 39('(DEGREES)) only p58('gag) is synthesized and the morphology of the cells is similar to uninfected NRK parental cells. Two MuSVts110 specific RNAs are made in MuSVts110-infected cells, one of 4.0 kb in length, the other of 3.5 kb. Previous work indicated that each of these RNAs arose by a single central deletion of parental MuSV genetic material, and that p58('gag) was made by the 4.0 kb RNA and p85('gag-mos) from the 3.5 kb RNA. The objective of my dissertation research was to map precisely the deletion boundaries of both of the MuSVts110 RNAs, and to determine the proper reading frame across both deletion borders. This work succeeded in arriving at the following conclusions: (a) Using S-1 nuclease analysis and primer extension sequencing, it was found that the 4.0 kb MuSVts110 RNA arose by a 1488 base deletion of 5.2 kb parental MuSV genomic RNA. This deletion resulted in an out of frame fusion of the gag and mos genes that resulted in the formation of a "stop" codon which causes termination of translation just beyond the c-terminus of the gag region. Thus, this RNA can only be translated into the truncated gag protein p58('gag). (b) S-1 analysis of RNA from cells cultivated at different temperatures demonstrated that the 4.0 kb RNA was synthesized at all temperatures but that synthesis of the 3.5 kb RNA was temperature sensitive. These observations supported the data derived from blot hybridization experiments the interpretation of which argued for the existence of a single provirus in MuSVts110 infected cells, and hence only a single primary transcript (the 4.0 kb RNA). (c) Analyses similar to those described in (a) above showed that the 3.5 kb RNA was derived from the 4.0 kb MuSVts110 RNA by a further deletion of 431 bases, fusing the gag and mos genes into a continuous reading frame capable of directing synthesis of the p85('gag-mos) protein. These sequence data and the presence of only one MuSVts110-specific provirus, indicate that a splice mechanism is employed to generate the 3.5 kb RNA since the gag and mos genes are observed to be fused in frame in this RNA. . . . (Author's abstract exceeds stipulated maximum length. Discontinued here with permission of author.) UMI ^

An analysis of the revenue policy -making process of the Texas Legislature

The purpose of this dissertation was to develop a conceptual framework which can be used to account for policy decisions made by the House Ways and Means Committee (HW&MC) of the Texas House of Representatives. This analysis will examine the actions of the committee over a ten-year period with the goal of explaining and predicting the success of failure of certain efforts to raise revenue.^ The basis framework for modelling the revenue decision-making process includes three major components--the decision alternatives, the external factors and two competing contingency theories. The decision alternatives encompass the particular options available to increase tax revenue. The options were classified as non-innovative or innovative. The non-innovative options included the sales, franchise, property and severance taxes. The innovative options were principally the personal and corporate income taxes.^ The external factors included political and economic constraints that affected the actions of the HW&MC. Several key political constraints on committee decision-making were addressed--including public attitudes, interest groups, political party strength and tradition and precedents. The economic constraints that affected revenue decisions included court mandates, federal mandates and the fiscal condition of the nation and the state.^ The third component of the revenue decision-making framework included two alternative contingency theories. The first alternative theory postulated that the committee structure, including the individual member roles and the overall committee style, resulted in distinctive revenue decisions. This theory will be favored if evidence points to the committee acting autonomously with less concern for the policies of the Speaker of the House. The Speaker assignment theory, postulated that the assignment of committee members shaped or changed the course of committee decision-making. This theory will be favored if there was evidence that the committee was strictly a vehicle for the Speaker to institute his preferred tax policies.^ The ultimate goal of this analysis is to develop an explanation for legislative decision-making about tax policy. This explanation will be based on the linkages across various tax options, political and economic constraints, member roles and committee style and the patterns of committee assignment. ^

Frontiers of the New Economic Geography

This paper presents an overview of recent development in the new economic geography (NEG), and discusses possible directions of its future development. Since there already exist several surveys on this topic, we focus on the selected features of the NEG which are important yet have attracted insufficient attention, and also on the recent refinements and extensions of the framework.