A hybrid PSO-ANFIS approach for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal

The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Wind power prediction plays a key role in tackling these challenges. The contribution of this paper is to propose a new hybrid approach, combining particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal. Significant improvements regarding forecasting accuracy are attainable using the proposed approach, in comparison with the results obtained with five other approaches.

Elements of a methodology to assess the alignment of core-values in collaborative networks

Collaborative networks are typically formed by heterogeneous and autonomous entities, and thus it is natural that each member has its own set of core-values. Since these values somehow drive the behaviour of the involved entities, the ability to quickly identify partners with compatible or common core-values represents an important element for the success of collaborative networks. However, tools to assess or measure the level of alignment of core-values are lacking. Since the concept of 'alignment' in this context is still ill-defined and shows a multifaceted nature, three perspectives are discussed. The first one uses a causal maps approach in order to capture, structure, and represent the influence relationships among core-values. This representation provides the basis to measure the alignment in terms of the structural similarity and influence among value systems. The second perspective considers the compatibility and incompatibility among core-values in order to define the alignment level. Under this perspective we propose a fuzzy inference system to estimate the alignment level, since this approach allows dealing with variables that are vaguely defined, and whose inter-relationships are difficult to define. Another advantage provided by this method is the possibility to incorporate expert human judgment in the definition of the alignment level. The last perspective uses a belief Bayesian network method, and was selected in order to assess the alignment level based on members' past behaviour. An example of application is presented where the details of each method are discussed.

Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market by a hybrid PSO-ANFIS approach

In this paper, a novel hybrid approach is proposed for electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market, considering a time horizon of 1 week. The proposed approach is based on the combination of particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications, to demonstrate its effectiveness regarding forecasting accuracy and computation time. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hybrid Wavelet-PSO-ANFIS Approach for Short-Term Electricity Prices Forecasting

A novel hybrid approach, combining wavelet transform, particle swarm optimization, and adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, is proposed in this paper for short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.

Modelo de previsão meteorológica baseado em sistemas de inferência difusa

Mestrado em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

Optimal offering strategies for wind power producers considering uncertainty and risk

This paper provides a two-stage stochastic programming approach for the development of optimal offering strategies for wind power producers. Uncertainty is related to electricity market prices and wind power production. A hybrid intelligent approach, combining wavelet transform, particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, is used in this paper to generate plausible scenarios. Also, risk aversion is explicitly modeled using the conditional value-at-risk methodology. Results from a realistic case study, based on a wind farm in Portugal, are provided and analyzed. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.

Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competetive market by a hybrid Pso-Anfis approach

In this paper, a novel hybrid approach is proposed for electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market, considering a time horizon of 1 week. The proposed approach is based on the combination of particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications, to demonstrate its effectiveness regarding forecasting accuracy and computation time. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.

A new approach to the initial value problem

5th Portuguese Conference on Automatic Control, September, 5-7, 2002, Aveiro, Portugal

Reducing the number of membership functions in linguistic variables

Dissertation presented at Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia in fulfilment of the requirements for the Masters degree in Mathematics and Applications, specialization in Actuarial Sciences, Statistics and Operations Research

Dynamic responses of oxygen uptake at the onset and end of moderate and heavy exercise in trained subjects.

Inconsistencies about dynamic asymmetry between the on- and off-transient responses in VO2 are found in the literature. Therefore the purpose of this study was to examine VO2 on- and off-transients during moderate- and heavy-intensity cycling exercise in trained subjects. Ten men underwent an initial incremental test for the estimation of ventilatory threshold (VT) and, on different days, two bouts of square-wave exercise at moderate (<VT) and heavy (>VT) intensities. VO2 kinetics in exercise and recovery were better described by a single exponential model (<VT), or by a double exponential with two time delays (>VT). For moderate exercise, we found a symmetry of VO2 kinetics between the on- and off-transients (i.e., fundamental component), consistent with a system manifesting linear control dynamics. For heavy exercise, a slow component superimposed on the fundamental phase was expressed in both the exercise and recovery, with similar parameter estimates. But the on-transient values of the time constant were appreciably faster than the associated off-transient, and independent of the work rate imposed (<VT and >VT). Our results do not support a dynamically linear system model of VO2 during cycling exercise in the heavy-intensity domain.

Dynamic responses of O2 uptake at the onset and end of exercise in trained subjects.

Inconsistencies about dynamic asymmetry between the on- and off-transient responses in .VO2 are found in the literature. Therefore the purpose of this study was to examine .VO2on- and off-transients during moderate- and heavy-intensity cycling exercise in trained subjects. Ten men underwent an initial incremental test for the estimation of ventilatory threshold (VT) and, on different days, two bouts of square-wave exercise at moderate (<VT) and heavy (>VT) intensities. .VO2 kinetics in exercise and recovery were better described by a single exponential model (<VT) or by a double exponential with two time delays (>VT). For moderate exercise, we found a symmetry of .VO2 kinetics between the on- and off-transients (i.e., fundamental component), consistent with a system manifesting linear control dynamics. For heavy exercise, a slow component superimposed on the fundamental phase was expressed in both the exercise and recovery, with similar parameter estimates. But the on-transient values of the time constant were appreciably faster than the associated off-transient, and independent of the work rate imposed (<VT and >VT). Our results do not support a dynamically linear system model of .VO2 during cycling exercise in the heavy-intensity domain.

Mutigrid preconditioner for nonconforming discretization of elliptic problems with jump coefficients

In this paper, we present a multigrid preconditioner for solving the linear system arising from the piecewise linear nonconforming Crouzeix-Raviart discretization of second order elliptic problems with jump coe fficients. The preconditioner uses the standard conforming subspaces as coarse spaces. Numerical tests show both robustness with respect to the jump in the coe fficient and near-optimality with respect to the number of degrees of freedom.

Orthotropic active strain models for the numerical simulation of cardiac biomechanics

An active strain formulation for orthotropic constitutive laws arising in cardiac mechanics modeling is introduced and studied. The passive mechanical properties of the tissue are described by the Holzapfel-Ogden relation. In the active strain formulation, the Euler-Lagrange equations for minimizing the total energy are written in terms of active and passive deformation factors, where the active part is assumed to depend, at the cell level, on the electrodynamics and on the specific orientation of the cardiac cells. The well-posedness of the linear system derived from a generic Newton iteration of the original problem is analyzed and different mechanical activation functions are considered. In addition, the active strain formulation is compared with the classical active stress formulation from both numerical and modeling perspectives. Taylor-Hood and MINI finite elements are employed to discretize the mechanical problem. The results of several numerical experiments show that the proposed formulation is mathematically consistent and is able to represent the main key features of the phenomenon, while allowing savings in computational costs.

Aerodynamical instability of web

Diplomityön tavoitteena oli tutkia miten ilman turbulenttisuus vaikuttaa tasaisesti liikkuvan rainan tilaan. Yhtenä sovelluskohteena teollisuudessa voidaan mainita esimerkiksi leiju-kuivain. Tiedetään, että konenopeuksien kasvu ja siitä johtuva ilmavirran nopeuden kasvu aiheuttaa voimavaikutuksia rainaan ja voi aiheuttaa lepatusta. Lepatus johtaa dynaamiseen epästabiilisuuteen, joka voidaan havaita, kun lineaarinen systeemi tulee epävakaaksi ja joh-taa epälineaariseen, rajoitettuun värähtelyyn. Lepatus huonontaa tuotteiden laatua ja voi johtaa ratakatkoihin. Työssä on esitetty tietoa ilman ja rainan vuorovaikutuksesta, jota hyödyntämällä voidaan kehittää yksinkertaistettu malli, jonka avulla liikkuvaa rainaa voidaan simuloida kuivaimes-sa. Kaasufaasin virtausyhtälöt on ratkaistu eri turbulenttimalleja käyttäen. Myös viskoelas-tisen rainan muodonmuutosta on tarkasteltu. Koska rainalle ei ole kirjallisuudesta saatavilla tarkkoja fysikaalisia ja mekaanisia arvoja, näitä ominaisuuksia testattiin eri arvoilla, jotta rainan käyttäytymistä jännityksen alaisena voidaan tarkastella. Näiden ominaisuuksien tun-teminen on ensiarvoisen tärkeää määritettäessä rainan aeroviskoelastista käyttäytymistä. Virtaussimulointi on kallista ja aikaa vievää. Tämä tarkoittaa uusien tutkimusmenetelmien omaksumista. Tässä työssä vaihtoehtoisena lähestymistapana on esitetty yksinkertaistettu malli, joka sisältää ilman ja rainan vuorovaikutusta kuvaavat ominaisuudet. Mallin avulla saadaan tietoa epälineaarisuuden ja turbulenssin vaikutuksesta sekä monimutkaisesta yh-teydestä stabiilisuuden ja ulkoisesti aikaansaadun värähtelyn sekä itse aiheutetun värähtelyn välillä. Työn lopussa on esitetty havainnollinen esimerkki, jolla voidaan kuvata olosuhteita, jossa rainan tasainen liike muuttuu epävakaaksi. Kun turbulenttisuudesta johtuva painevaih-telu ylittää tietyn rajan, rainan värähtely kasvaa muuttuen satunnaisesta järjestäytyneeksi. Saaduttulokset osoittavat, että turbulenttisuudella on suuri vaikutus eikä sitä voi jättää huomioimatta. Myös rainan viskoelastiset ominaisuudet tulee huomioida, jotta rainan käyt-täytymistä voidaan kuvata tarkasti.

Soft Computing Methods in Metallurgy

In metallurgic plants a high quality metal production is always required. Nowadays soft computing applications are more often used for automation of manufacturing process and quality control instead of mechanical techniques. In this thesis an overview of soft computing methods presents. As an example of soft computing application, an effective model of fuzzy expert system for the automotive quality control of steel degassing process was developed. The purpose of this work is to describe the fuzzy relations as quality hypersurfaces by varying number of linguistic variables and fuzzy sets.