Investigating Hydraulically Active Fractures in A Shallow Meta-Sedimentary Bedrock Aquifer Using Single Well Tracer Testing, Mount Stewart, Northern Ireland

Knowledge of groundwater flow/mass transport, in poorly productive aquifers which underlie over 65% of the island of Ireland, is necessary for effective management of catchment water quality and aquatic ecology. This research focuses on a fractured low-grade Ordovician/Silurian greywacke sequence which underlies approximately 25% of the northern half of Ireland. Knowledge of the unit’s hydrogeological properties remain largely restricted to localised single well open hole “transmissivity” values. Current hydrogeological conceptual models of the Greywacke view the bulk of groundwater flowing through fractures in an otherwise impermeable bedrock mass.
Core analysis permits fracture characterisation, although not all identified fractures may be involved in groundwater flow. Traditional in-situ hydraulic characterisation relies on cumbersome techniques such as packer testing or geophysical borehole logging (e.g. flowmeters). Queen’s University Belfast is currently carrying out hydraulic characterization of 16 boreholes at its Greywacke Hydrogeological Research Site at Mount Stewart, Northern Ireland.
Development of dye dilution methods, using a recently-developed downhole fluorometer, provided a portable, user-friendly, and inexpensive means of detecting hydraulically active intervals in open boreholes. Measurements in a 55m deep hole, three days following fluorescent dye injection, demonstrated the ability of the technique to detect two discrete hydraulically active intervals corresponding to zones identified by caliper and heat-pulse flowmeter logs. High resolution acoustic televiewer logs revealed the zones to correspond to two steeply dipping fractured intervals. Results suggest the rock can have effective porosities of the order of 0.1%.
Study findings demonstrate dye dilution’s utility in characterizing groundwater flow in fractured aquifers. Tests on remaining holes will be completed at different times following injection to identify less permeable fractures and develop an improved understanding of the structural controls on groundwater flow in the uppermost metres of competent bedrock.

Fragility of information cascades: an experimental study using elicited beliefs

This paper examines the occurrence and fragility of information cascades in two laboratory experiments. One group of low informed participants sequentially guess which of two states has been randomly chosen. In a matched pairs design, another group of high informed participants make similar guesses after having observed the guesses of the low informed participants. In the second experiment, participants' beliefs about the chosen state are elicited. In equilibrium, low informed players who observe an established pattern of identical guesses herd without regard to their private information whereas high informed players always guess according to their private information. Equilibrium behavior implies that information cascades emerge in the group of low informed participants, the belief based solely on cascade guesses is stationary, and information cascades are systematically broken by high informed participants endowed with private information contradicting the cascade guesses. Experimental results show that the behavior of low informed participants is qualitatively in line with the equilibrium prediction. Information cascades often emerge in our experiments. The tendency of low informed participants to engage in cascade behavior increases with the number of identical guesses. Our main finding is that information cascades are not fragile. The behavior of high informed participants differs markedly from the equilibrium prediction. Only one-third of laboratory cascades are broken by high informed participants endowed with private information contradicting the cascade guesses. The relative frequency of cascade breaks is 15% for the situations where five or more identical guesses are observed. Participants' elicited beliefs are strongly consistent with their own behavior and show that, unlike in equilibrium, the more cascade guesses participants observe the more they believe in the state favored by those guesses.

Fragility of the spin-glass-like collective state to a magnetic field in an interacting Fe-C nanoparticle system

The effect of applied magnetic fields on the collective nonequilibrium dynamics of a strongly interacting Fe-C nanoparticle system has been investigated. It is experimentally shown that the magnetic aging diminishes to finally disappear for fields of moderate strength. The field needed to remove the observable aging behavior increases with decreasing temperature. The same qualitative behavior is observed in an amorphous metallic spin glass (Fe0.15Ni0.85)(75)P16B6Al3.

Hip protectors to prevent hip fractures - a waste of time and money?

Abstract:
Background: An estimated 30-60% of older
adults fall every year and about 1% of falls result in a hip fracture. Hip fracture is a serious and growing problem, with a 3-10 fold rise in worldwide incidence predicted by 2050 (Gullberg, et al 1997). Hip protectors are underwear with built in protection for the greater trochanter. They are designed to prevent hip fractures by dispersing or absorbing the force of a fall. Trials
published to 2001 were broadly supportive of
the effectiveness of hip protectors, and this
was reflected in a Cochrane review in 2000.
However, earlier trials were methodologically
flawed and subsequent trials have not demonstrated effectiveness. The most recent Cochrane review describes only a marginal benefit (Parker et al, 2005).
Review and Discussion: This presentation
evaluates the current evidence for the use
of hip protectors and discusses the use of
that evidence by manufacturers, suppliers,
professional groups and guideline developers.
Interestingly, despite the limitations of the
evidence base, most advice has been broadly
supportive. Reasons for this are proposed
and discussed in the context of a critique of
evidence-based healthcare. protectors. However, the available evidence can be used in different ways and for different purposes by those with an interest in promoting
the use of hip protectors. A conservative
approach is warranted, where, if we cannot
demonstrate that hip protectors work, we
presume that they do not. This presentation will be of use to practitioners wanting to evaluate the evidence base for hip protectors (and other recommended interventions) on behalf of clients. It will also be of interest to policy makers who must assess the claims made for health care technologies as part of the decisionmaking process.
Recommended reading:
Gullberg B, Johnell O, Kanis JA (1997) Worldwide
projections for hip fracture. Osteoporos
Int. 7(5):407-13 .
Parker MJ, Gillespie WJ, Gillespie LD (2005) Hip
protectors for preventing hip fractures in older
people. The Cochrane Database of Systematic
Reviews Issue 3. Art. No.: CD001255.pub3. DOI:
10.1002/14651858.CD001255.pub3.

The statistical significance of randomized controlled trial results is frequently fragile: A case for a Fragility Index

Objectives

A P-value <0.05 is one metric used to evaluate the results of a randomized controlled trial (RCT). We wondered how often statistically significant results in RCTs may be lost with small changes in the numbers of outcomes.

Study Design and Setting

A review of RCTs in high-impact medical journals that reported a statistically significant result for at least one dichotomous or time-to-event outcome in the abstract. In the group with the smallest number of events, we changed the status of patients without an event to an event until the P-value exceeded 0.05. We labeled this number the Fragility Index; smaller numbers indicated a more fragile result.

Results

The 399 eligible trials had a median sample size of 682 patients (range: 15-112,604) and a median of 112 events (range: 8-5,142); 53% reported a P-value <0.01. The median Fragility Index was 8 (range: 0-109); 25% had a Fragility Index of 3 or less. In 53% of trials, the Fragility Index was less than the number of patients lost to follow-up.

Conclusion

The statistically significant results of many RCTs hinge on small numbers of events. The Fragility Index complements the P-value and helps identify less robust results.