Systems modelling of the socio-technical aspects of residential electricity use and network peak demand

Provision of network infrastructure to meet rising network peak demand is increasing the cost of electricity. Addressing this demand is a major imperative for Australian electricity agencies. The network peak demand model reported in this paper provides a quantified decision support tool and a means of understanding the key influences and impacts on network peak demand. An investigation of the system factors impacting residential consumers’ peak demand for electricity was undertaken in Queensland, Australia. Technical factors, such as the customers’ location, housing construction and appliances, were combined with social factors, such as household demographics, culture, trust and knowledge, and Change Management Options (CMOs) such as tariffs, price,managed supply, etc., in a conceptual ‘map’ of the system. A Bayesian network was used to quantify the model and provide insights into the major influential factors and their interactions. The model was also used to examine the reduction in network peak demand with different market-based and government interventions in various customer locations of interest and investigate the relative importance of instituting programs that build trust and knowledge through well designed customer-industry engagement activities. The Bayesian network was implemented via a spreadsheet with a tick box interface. The model combined available data from industry-specific and public sources with relevant expert opinion. The results revealed that the most effective intervention strategies involve combining particular CMOs with associated education and engagement activities. The model demonstrated the importance of designing interventions that take into account the interactions of the various elements of the socio-technical system. The options that provided the greatest impact on peak demand were Off-Peak Tariffs and Managed Supply and increases in the price of electricity. The impact in peak demand reduction differed for each of the locations and highlighted that household numbers, demographics as well as the different climates were significant factors. It presented possible network peak demand reductions which would delay any upgrade of networks, resulting in savings for Queensland utilities and ultimately for households. The use of this systems approach using Bayesian networks to assist the management of peak demand in different modelled locations in Queensland provided insights about the most important elements in the system and the intervention strategies that could be tailored to the targeted customer segments.

Scheme of squares: Part I. Systems formalism for potentiostatic studies

The so-called “Scheme of Squares”, displaying an interconnectivity of heterogeneous electron transfer and homogeneous (e.g., proton transfer) reactions, is analysed. Explicit expressions for the various partial currents under potentiostatic conditions are given. The formalism is applicable to several electrode geometries and models (e.g., semi-infinite linear diffusion, rotating disk electrodes, spherical or cylindrical systems) and the analysis is exact. The steady-state (t→∞) expressions for the current are directly given in terms of constant matrices whereas the transients are obtained as Laplace transforms that need to be inverted by approximation of numerical methods. The methodology employs a systems approach which replaces a system of partial differential equations (governing the concentrations of the several electroactive species) by an equivalent set of difference equations obeyed by the various partial currents.

Developing sustainable banana production systems: a case study from tropical Australia

The north Queensland banana industry is under pressure from government and community expectations to exhibit good environmental stewardship. The industry is situated on the high-rainfall north Queensland coast adjacent to 2 natural icons, the Great Barrier Reef to the east and World Heritage-listed rain forest areas to the west. The main environmental concern is agricultural industry pollutants harming the Great Barrier Reef. In addition to environmental issues the banana industry also suffers financial pressure from declining margins and production loss from tropical cyclones. As part of a broader government strategy to reduce land-based pollutants affecting the Great Barrier Reef, the formation of a pilot banana producers group to address these environmental and economic pressures was facilitated. Using an integrated farming systems approach, we worked collaboratively with these producers to conduct an environmental risk assessment of their businesses and then to develop best management practices (BMP) to address environmental concerns. We also sought input from technical experts to provide increased rigour for the environmental risk assessment and BMP development. The producers' commercial experience ensured new ideas for improved sustainable practices were constantly assessed through their profit-driven 'filter' thus ensuring economic sustainability was also considered. Relying heavily on the producers' knowledge and experience meant the agreed sustainable practices were practical, relevant and financially feasible for the average-sized banana business in the region. Expert input and review also ensured that practices were technically sound. The pilot group producers then implemented and adapted selected key practices on their farms. High priority practices addressed by the producers group included optimizing nitrogen fertilizer management to reduce runoff water nitrification, developing practical ground cover management to reduce soil erosion and improving integrated pest management systems to reduce pesticide use. To facilitate wider banana industry understanding and adoption of the BMP's developed by the pilot group, we conducted field days at the farms of the pilot group members. Information generated by the pilot group has had wider application to Australian horticulture and the process has been subsequently used with the north Queensland sugar industry. Our experiences have shown that integrated farming systems methodologies are useful in addressing complex issues like environmental and economic sustainability. We have also found that individual horticulture businesses need on-going technical support for change to more sustainable practices. One-off interventions have little impact, as farm improvement is usually an on-going incremental process. A key lesson from this project has been the need to develop practical, farm scale economic tools to clarify and demonstrate the financial impact of alternative management practices. Demonstrating continued profitability is critical to encourage widespread industry adoption of environmentally sustainable practices

Re-thinking mango disease management in Australia; the rationale and approach

The shelf life of mangoes is limited by two main postharvest diseases when not consistently managed. These are anthracnose ( Colletotrichum gloeosporioides) and stem end rots (SER) ( Fusicoccum parvum). The management of these diseases has often relied mainly on the use of fungicides either as field spray treatments or as postharvest dips. These have done a fairly good job at serving the industry and allowing fruits to be transported, stored and sold at markets distant from the areas of production. There are however concerns on the continuous use of these fungicides as the main or only tool for the management of these diseases. This has necessitated a re-think of how these diseases could be sustainably managed into the future using a systems approach that focuses on integrated crop management. It is a holistic approach that considers all the crop protection management strategies including the genetics of the plant and its ability to naturally defend itself from infection with plant activators and growth regulators. It also considers other cultural or agronomic management tools such as the use of crop nutrition, timely application of irrigation water and the pruning of trees on a regular basis as a means of reducing inoculum levels in the orchards. The ultimate aim of this approach is to increase yields and obtain long term sustainable production. It is guided by the sustainable crop production principle which states that producers should apply as little inputs as possible but as much as needed.

Design strategies for ultra-high efficiency photovoltaics

While concentrator photovoltaic cells have shown significant improvements in efficiency in the past ten years, once these cells are integrated into concentrating optics, connected to a power conditioning system and deployed in the field, the overall module efficiency drops to only 34 to 36%. This efficiency is impressive compared to conventional flat plate modules, but it is far short of the theoretical limits for solar energy conversion. Designing a system capable of achieving ultra high efficiency of 50% or greater cannot be achieved by refinement and iteration of current design approaches.

This thesis takes a systems approach to designing a photovoltaic system capable of 50% efficient performance using conventional diode-based solar cells. The effort began with an exploration of the limiting efficiency of spectrum splitting ensembles with 2 to 20 sub cells in different electrical configurations. Incorporating realistic non-ideal performance with the computationally simple detailed balance approach resulted in practical limits that are useful to identify specific cell performance requirements. This effort quantified the relative benefit of additional cells and concentration for system efficiency, which will help in designing practical optical systems.

Efforts to improve the quality of the solar cells themselves focused on the development of tunable lattice constant epitaxial templates. Initially intended to enable lattice matched multijunction solar cells, these templates would enable increased flexibility in band gap selection for spectrum splitting ensembles and enhanced radiative quality relative to metamorphic growth. The III-V material family is commonly used for multijunction solar cells both for its high radiative quality and for the ease of integrating multiple band gaps into one monolithic growth. The band gap flexibility is limited by the lattice constant of available growth templates. The virtual substrate consists of a thin III-V film with the desired lattice constant. The film is grown strained on an available wafer substrate, but the thickness is below the dislocation nucleation threshold. By removing the film from the growth substrate, allowing the strain to relax elastically, and bonding it to a supportive handle, a template with the desired lattice constant is formed. Experimental efforts towards this structure and initial proof of concept are presented.

Cells with high radiative quality present the opportunity to recover a large amount of their radiative losses if they are incorporated in an ensemble that couples emission from one cell to another. This effect is well known, but has been explored previously in the context of sub cells that independently operate at their maximum power point. This analysis explicitly accounts for the system interaction and identifies ways to enhance overall performance by operating some cells in an ensemble at voltages that reduce the power converted in the individual cell. Series connected multijunctions, which by their nature facilitate strong optical coupling between sub-cells, are reoptimized with substantial performance benefit.

Photovoltaic efficiency is usually measured relative to a standard incident spectrum to allow comparison between systems. Deployed in the field systems may differ in energy production due to sensitivity to changes in the spectrum. The series connection constraint in particular causes system efficiency to decrease as the incident spectrum deviates from the standard spectral composition. This thesis performs a case study comparing performance of systems over a year at a particular location to identify the energy production penalty caused by series connection relative to independent electrical connection.

A nonlinear systems model for the control mechanism of free fatty acid-glucose metabolosm in normal humans

A mathematical model is proposed in this thesis for the control mechanism of free fatty acid-glucose metabolism in healthy individuals under resting conditions. The objective is to explain in a consistent manner some clinical laboratory observations such as glucose, insulin and free fatty acid responses to intravenous injection of glucose, insulin, etc. Responses up to only about two hours from the beginning of infusion are considered. The model is an extension of the one for glucose homeostasis proposed by Charette, Kadish and Sridhar (Modeling and Control Aspects of Glucose Homeostasis. Mathematical Biosciences, 1969). It is based upon a systems approach and agrees with the current theories of glucose and free fatty acid metabolism. The description is in terms of ordinary differential equations. Validation of the model is based on clinical laboratory data available at the present time. Finally procedures are suggested for systematically identifying the parameters associated with the free fatty acid portion of the model.

Genetic variants of complement factor H gene are not associated with premature coronary heart disease:A family-based study in the Irish population

Background: The complement factor H (CFH) gene has been recently confirmed to play an essential role in the development of age-related macular degeneration (AMD). There are conflicting reports of its role in coronary heart disease. This study was designed to investigate if, using a family-based approach, there was an association between genetic variants of the CFH gene and risk of early-onset coronary heart disease. Methods: We evaluated 6 SNPs and 5 common haplotypes in the CFH gene amongst 1494 individuals in 580 Irish families with at least one member prematurely affected with coronary heart disease. Genotypes were determined by multiplex SNaPshot technology. Results: Using the TDT/S-TDT test, we did not find an association between any of the individual SNPs or any of the 5 haplotypes and early-onset coronary heart disease. Conclusion: In this family-based study, we found no association between the CFH gene and early-onset coronary heart disease. © 2007 Meng et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Family functioning during the diagnosis process in families with children on the autism spectrum,

While the causes of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) still are not fully understood, increasingly research focuses on interventions and treatment of children diagnosed with ASD. Considerably less attention is paid to family systems, family functioning, and family needs. This paper takes a family system perspective exploring how families with children on the autism spectrum function during the particularly stressful period of the diagnosis process and thereafter. Recommendations made in this paper include the need for empirical studies that address in detail family systems, family needs, the assessment and diagnostic process, service provision, social support networks, and additional stressful life events. Furthermore, the development of a family functioning assessment tools is called for in order to promote child-family-centred assessment and intervention. Details of an ongoing comparative study are outlined that will make a contribution to family studies and autism research field with a specific focus on the diagnosis

Outreach and Early Warning Systems (EWS) for the prevention of intensive care admission and death of critically ill adult patients on general hospital wards

BACKGROUND: Despite the fact that outreach and early warning systems (EWS) are an integral part of a hospital wide systems approach to improve the early identification and management of deteriorating patients on general hospital wards, the widespread implementation of these interventions in practice is not based on robust research evidence. OBJECTIVES: The primary objective was to determine the impact of critical care outreach services on hospital mortality rates. Secondary objectives included determining the effect of outreach services on intensive care unit (ICU) admission patterns, length of hospital stay and adverse events. SEARCH STRATEGY: The review authors searched the following electronic databases: EPOC Specialised Register, The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and other Cochrane databases (all on The Cochrane Library 2006, Issue 3), MEDLINE (1996-June week 3 2006), EMBASE (1974-week 26 2006), CINAHL (1982-July week 5 2006), First Search (1992-2005) and CAB Health (1990-July 2006); also reference lists of relevant articles, conference abstracts, and made contact with experts and critical care organisations for further information. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs), controlled clinical trials (CCTs), controlled before and after studies (CBAs) and interrupted time series designs (ITS) which measured hospital mortality, unanticipated ICU admissions, ICU readmissions, length of hospital stay and adverse events following implementation of outreach and EWS in a general hospital ward to identify deteriorating adult patients versus general hospital ward setting without outreach and EWS were included in the review. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Three review authors independently extracted data and two review authors assessed the methodological quality of the included studies. Meta-analysis was not possible due to heterogeneity. Summary statistics and descriptive summaries of primary and secondary outcomes are presented for each study. MAIN RESULTS: Two cluster-randomised control trials were included: one randomised at hospital level (23 hospitals in Australia) and one at ward level (16 wards in the UK). The primary outcome in the Australian trial (a composite score comprising incidence of unexpected cardiac arrests, unexpected deaths and unplanned ICU admissions) showed no statistical significant difference between control and medical emergency team (MET) hospitals (adjusted P value 0.640; adjusted odds ratio (OR) 0.98; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.83 to 1.16). The UK-based trial found that outreach reduced in-hospital mortality (adjusted OR 0.52; 95% CI 0.32 to 0.85) compared with the control group. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The evidence from this review highlights the diversity and poor methodological quality of most studies investigating outreach. The results of the two included studies showed either no evidence of the effectiveness of outreach or a reduction in overall mortality in patients receiving outreach. The lack of evidence on outreach requires further multi-site RCT's to determine potential effectiveness.

“Boundary-setting as a core activity in complex public systems”

Title: Boundary-setting as a core activity in complex public systems
Authors: Joanne Murphy & Mary Lee Rhodes

The definition of the boundary of a system is at the core of any systems approach (Midgley 2000; 2003). By defining boundaries we enable – and delimit – the range of outcomes sought and the actions and resources that can be brought to bear. In complex adaptive systems (CAS) analysis, the conceptualisaion and definition of boundaries is particularly challenging as they are constantly undergoing redefinition through agent action, interaction and entry/exit. (Rhodes et al 2011). The concept of ‘boundaries’ appears regularly in a wide range of literature around public management, administration, geopolitics, regeneration and organisational development. Discussions around boundaries focus on many things from concrete physical manifestations and barriers, to virtual interfaces between one organisational unit and another, or even entirely theoretical demarcations between different schools of thought (Kaboolian, 1998, Levi-Faur, 2004, Agranoff & McGuire, 2004).

However, managing ‘beyond’ such boundaries is a routinely recurring aspiration that transcends sectors and local concerns. Unsurprisingly then, there is an increasing understanding of the need to acknowledge and manage such boundaries (whether they be physical, social or organisational) within public management as a discipline (Currie et al 2007, Fitzsimmons and White, 1997, Murtagh, 2002). This paper explores the impact of boundaries on public management strategic decision-making in the sectors of urban regeneration and healthcare. In particular, it focuses on demarcations to physical space, communal identity and within professional relationships in these sectors.

The first section describes the research that gave rise to the paper and the cases examined. Next we briefly define what we mean by boundaries. We explore issues that have emerged from our analysis of urban regeneration and health care singularly, before looking at how the concept of boundaries is a recurrent concern across the sectors. The main contribution of the paper is an exploration of how a CAS lens can bring a new insight into the concept of boundaries and decision-making in the two sets of case studies. This discussion will concentrate on initial conditions, bifurcation and adaptation as key CAS factors in relation to boundaries. We conclude with a brief discussion on the benefits of a CAS lens to an analysis of boundaries in public management decision-making.
References:

Agranoff, R. and McGuire, M. (2003) Collaborative Public Management: Strategies for Local Government. Washington, DC: Georgetown Univ. Press.

Currie, G., Lockett, A. (2007) “A critique of transformational leadership: moral, professional & contingent dimensions of leadership within public services organizations”. Human Relations 60: 341-370.

Fitzsimmons and White, (1997) "Crossing boundaries: communication between professional groups", Journal of Management in Medicine, Vol. 11 Iss: 2, pp.96 – 101

Kaboolian, L. (1998) “The New Public Management: Challenging the Boundaries of the Management vs. Administration Debate” Public Administration Review Vol. 58, No. 3 pp.189-193

Levi-Faur D. and Vigoda-Gadot Eran (eds) (2004) International Public Policy and Management: Policy Learning Beyond Regional, Cultural and Political Boundaries, Marcel Dekker,
Midgley, G. (ed) (2003) Systems Thinking. London: Sage Publications

Midgley, G. (2000) Systemic Intervention: Philosophy, Methodology and Practice. New York, NY: Kluwer.

Murtagh, B. (2002). The Politics of Territory: Policy and Segregation in Northern Ireland. Basingstoke, Palgrave.

Rhodes, ML, Joanne Murphy, Jenny Muir, John Murray (2011) Public Management & Complexity Theory: Richer Decision Making in Irish Public Services, UK: Routledge

A system approach framework to the management of lake Baringo, Kenya

Dissertação de Mestrado, Gestão da Água e da Costa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2010

Linking Research and Teaching: an Applied Soft Systems Methodology Case Study

This paper links research and teaching through an applied Soft Systems Methodology case study. The case study focuses on the redevelopment of a Research and Professional Skills module to provide support for international postgraduate students through the use of formative feedback with the aim of increasing academic research skills and confidence. The stages of the Soft Systems Methodology were used as a structure for the redevelopment of module content and assessment. It proved to be a valuable tool for identifying complex issues, a basis for discussion and debate from which an enhanced understanding was gained and a successful solution implemented together with a case study that could be utilised for teaching Soft Systems Methodology concepts. Changes to the module were very successful and resulted in significantly higher grades and a higher pass rate.

Adoption d'une intervention systémique visant à faciliter la communication entre les infirmières et les familles dans un contexte de soins intensifs en traumatologie

Le but de cette étude est d’adopter une intervention systémique visant à faciliter la communication entre les infirmières1 et les familles2 dans un contexte de soins intensifs (SI) en traumatologie. Cette recherche prend en compte la réalité et les besoins du milieu à l’étude grâce au devis participatif retenu. Le cadre de référence est composé de l’approche systémique familiale de Wright et Leahey (2005) ainsi que de la théorie du caring de Jean Watson (1979). La collecte des données a été inspirée du parcours de recherche en spirale de Lehoux, Levy et Rodrigue (1995). Cinq entrevues ont été menées auprès de membres de familles ainsi que trois groupes de discussion (focus groups) auprès d’infirmières. L’analyse des données a été effectuée selon le Modèle de Huberman et Miles (2003) qui préconise une démarche analytique continue et interactive. Les résultats obtenus révèlent un changement de pratique selon dix interventions systémiques infirmières spécifiques permettant de faciliter la communication avec les familles aux soins intensifs en traumatologie et soulignent l’importance d’agir sur le plan du contexte, de la relation et du contenu liés au processus de communication. De plus, ils permettent de démontrer un réel changement de pratique dans le milieu retenu pour l’étude.

La violence domestique envers les femmes au Mexique : une analyse multidimensionnelle et intersectionnelle

En s’inscrivant dans la perspective du féminisme intersectionnelle et en mobilisant des méthodes mixtes, cette recherche tente de mieux comprendre la violence domestique envers les femmes au Mexique, à la fois à travers une analyse du discours des féministes mexicaines et d’une analyse statistique multidimensionnelle de données d’enquête identifiant les facteurs institutionnels, économiques et socioculturels associés au risque de vivre de la violence domestique. Cette thèse se démarque des réflexions féministes traditionnelles faites au Mexique puisqu’elle approche les rapports de genre en lien avec d’autres systèmes d’oppression et de subordination, fondés notamment sur les rapports de classe et l’ethnicité. Ainsi, elle appréhende la violence faite aux femmes en lien avec le patriarcat, sans réduire ce dernier à quelques indicateurs sociodémographiques et comportementaux mesurés au niveau individuel, mais en tenant compte du contexte d’inégalité de genre au niveau régional. Ce faisant, la recherche tente de réconcilier les deux grandes perspectives théoriques qui expliquent la violence conjugale, soit les approches de la violence familiale (qui s’attardent à des facteurs au niveau microsocial) et les approches féministes (qui mettent l’accent sur la structure patriarcale, c’est-à-dire le contexte plus large des inégalités de genre). Les résultats des entretiens réalisés avec des féministes représentant les trois branches du féminisme mexicain (féminisme hégémonique, populaire et autochtone) ont révélé les fractures existantes à l’intérieur du mouvement féministe au Mexique (antagonisme entre l’institutionnalisation et l’autonomie du mouvement féministe). De façon générale, l’analyse des entretiens a montré que l’engagement des féministes envers la cause des femmes est en accord avec les «idéaux types» des trois branches du féminisme mexicain. Les féministes hégémoniques mettent surtout l’accent sur la structure patriarcale de la société mexicaine et sur les inégalités de genre lorsqu’il s’agit de trouver des causes à la violence faite aux femmes. Pour les féministes du secteur populaire, la violence faite aux femmes s’explique autant par les inégalités de genre, que par les effets du système économique capitaliste. Le discours des femmes autochtones semble, quant à lui, tenir davantage compte de l’articulation des rapports de genre, des rapports ethniques, ainsi que des rapports socio-économiques. Néanmoins, nous constatons que les féministes de la branche hégémonique et populaire semblent de plus en plus sensibles à l’entrecroisement de systèmes de domination et d’oppression. Par ailleurs, l’analyse multiniveau effectuée à partir des données de l’Enquête nationale portant sur la dynamique des relations dans les ménages (2006), a révélé plusieurs résultats importants qui méritent d’être soulignés. D’abord on constate que les différences de prévalence des violences entre les municipalités mexicaines sont en grande partie expliquées par leur composition sociale, c’est-à-dire par des caractéristiques des femmes et de leur couple (niveau micro), plutôt que par des différences entre le niveau des inégalités de genre dans les municipalités mexicaines mesurées par l’ISDH (Indice Sexospécifique du Développement Humain). Les résultats des analyses montrent que les femmes autochtones ont en général des taux de violences moins élevés que les femmes métisses (groupe majoritaire). Enfin, en ce qui a trait à la relation entre le contexte d’inégalité de genre et la violence conjugale, les résultats suggèrent que plus l’ISDH d’une municipalité est élevée, plus il y a de femmes qui subissent les formes de violences. Cela va à l’encontre des postulats habituels des théories féministes et suggèrent que les progrès récents de la situation de la femme en matière de santé, d’éducation et de revenu n’ont pas bouleversé les rapports de genre encore très patriarcales qui continuent à privilégier la suprématie des hommes (Casique, 2004).

Systems biology meets stress ecology: linking molecular and organismal stress responses in Daphnia magna

Background: Ibuprofen and other nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs have been designed to interrupt eicosanoid metabolism in mammals, but little is known of how they affect nontarget organisms. Here we report a systems biology study that simultaneously describes the transcriptomic and phenotypic stress responses of the model crustacean Daphnia magna after exposure to ibuprofen. Results: Our findings reveal intriguing similarities in the mode of action of ibuprofen between vertebrates and invertebrates, and they suggest that ibuprofen has a targeted impact on reproduction at the molecular, organismal, and population level in daphnids. Microarray expression and temporal real-time quantitative PCR profiles of key genes suggest early ibuprofen interruption of crustacean eicosanoid metabolism, which appears to disrupt signal transduction affecting juvenile hormone metabolism and oogenesis. Conclusion: Combining molecular and organismal stress responses provides a guide to possible chronic consequences of environmental stress for population health. This could improve current environmental risk assessment by providing an early indication of the need for higher tier testing. Our study demonstrates the advantages of a systems approach to stress ecology, in which Daphnia will probably play a major role.