Avaliação de Riscos : Estimação Qualitativa da Probabilidade e da Gravidade em Contexto de Risco Elevado

O processo de gestão de risco consiste, no estudo estruturado de todos os aspetos inerentes ao trabalho e é composto pela análise de risco, avaliação de risco e controlo de risco. Na análise de risco, é efetuada a identificação de todos os perigos presentes e a estimação da probabilidade e da gravidade, de acordo com o método de avaliação de risco escolhido. Este estudo centra-se na primeira etapa do processo de avaliação de risco, mais especificamente na análise de risco e nos marcadores de informação necessários para se efetuar a estimação de risco na industria extrativa a céu aberto (atividade de risco elevado). Considerando que o nível de risco obtido, depende fundamentalmente da estimação da probabilidade e da gravidade, ajustada a cada situação de risco, procurou-se identificar os marcadores e compreender a sua influência nos resultados da avaliação de risco (magnitude). O plano de trabalhos de investigação foi sustentado por uma metodologia qualitativa de recolha, registo e análise dos dados. Neste estudo, a recolha de informação foi feita com recurso às seguintes técnicas de investigação: - Observação estruturada e planeada do desmonte da rocha com recurso a explosivos; - Entrevista individual de formadores e gestores de risco (amostragem de casos típicos); Na análise e discussão qualitativa dos dados das entrevistas recorreu-se às seguintes técnicas: - Triangulação de analistas e tratamento de dados cognitiva (técnicas complementares); - Aposição dos marcadores de informação, versus, três métodos de avaliação de risco validados. Os resultados obtidos apontam no sentido das hipóteses de investigação formuladas, ou seja, o tipo de risco influi da seleção da informação e, existem diferenças significativas no nível de risco obtido, quando na estimação da probabilidade e da gravidade são utilizados marcadores de informação distintos.

The decomposition of some RDX and HMX based materials in the one dimensional time to explosion apparatus. Part 2. Estimating the violence of the cook-off event

Various methods of assessment have been applied to the One Dimensional Time to Explosion (ODTX) apparatus and experiments with the aim of allowing an estimate of the comparative violence of the explosion event to be made. Non-mechanical methods used were a simple visual inspection, measuring the increase in the void volume of the anvils following an explosion and measuring the velocity of the sound produced by the explosion over 1 metre. Mechanical methods used included monitoring piezo-electric devices inserted in the frame of the machine and measuring the rotational velocity of a rotating bar placed on the top of the anvils after it had been displaced by the shock wave. This last method, which resembles original Hopkinson Bar experiments, seemed the easiest to apply and analyse, giving relative rankings of violence and the possibility of the calculation of a “detonation” pressure.

The decomposition of some RDX and HMX based materials in the one-dimensional time to explosion apparatus. Part 1. Time to explosion and apparent activation energy

A One-Dimensional Time to Explosion (ODTX) apparatus has been used to study the times to explosion of a number of compositions based on RDX and HMX over a range of contact temperatures. The times to explosion at any given temperature tend to increase from RDX to HMX and with the proportion of HMX in the composition. Thermal ignition theory has been applied to time to explosion data to calculate kinetic parameters. The apparent activation energy for all of the compositions lay between 127 kJ mol−1 and 146 kJ mol−1. There were big differences in the pre-exponential factor and this controlled the time to explosion rather than the activation energy for the process.

Terahertz spectroscopy and imaging at the nanoscale for biological and security applications

The chemical specificity of terahertz spectroscopy, when combined with techniques for sub-wavelength sensing, is giving new understanding of processes occurring at the nanometre scale in biological systems and offers the potential for single molecule detection of chemical and biological agents and explosives. In addition, terahertz techniques are enabling the exploration of the fundamental behaviour of light when it interacts with nanoscale optical structures, and are being used to measure ultrafast carrier dynamics, transport and localisation in nanostructures. This chapter will explain how terahertz scale modelling can be used to explore the fundamental physics of nano-optics, it will discuss the terahertz spectroscopy of nanomaterials, terahertz near-field microscopy and other sub-wavelength techniques, and summarise recent developments in the terahertz spectroscopy and imaging of biological systems at the nanoscale. The potential of using these techniques for security applications will be considered.

Exploiting thermally-reversible chemistry for controlling the crosslinking of polymer networks

High explosives are highly sensitive to accidental detonation by impact, fire, shrapnel and small arms fire. This sensitivity can be reduced by storing the energetic material within a rubbery polymer matrix and are known as plastic bonded explosives (PBX). The current procedure used to manufacture PBX involves mixing the energetic material with a hydroxy-functionalised aliphatic polymer. Upon the addition of an isocyanate crosslinker an immediate polymerisation occurs and thus the rapidly curing mixture must be used to fill the missile or shells, referred to as ‘stores’. This process can lead to poor distribution of the crosslinker resulting in the formation of an inhomogeneously crosslinked matrix and the formation of voids. One solution to this problem involves containing the crosslinker within polyurethane microcapsules that are uniformly dispersed in the explosive-polymer mixture. Upon the application of a stimulus the crosslinker can be released from the microcapsules and the formation of a uniformly crosslinked PBX achieved. Herein is reported the design and synthesis of polyurethane microcapsules that release isocyanate crosslinkers when desired using a thermal stimulus. This has been achieved by exploiting the thermally-reversible nature of oxime-urethane and Diels-Alder adducts that have been incorporated into the shell wall of the microcapsules. An alternative approach to controlling the polymerisation of PBX materials has also been achieved using thermally-reversible blocked isocyanates that regenerate the isocyanate crosslinker when exposed to heat.

Gas-Phase Nucleophilic and Elimination Reactions in Simple Alkyl Nitrates

There has been increasing interest in the gas-phase reactivity of alkyl nitrates because of their well-known applications as explosives and because of then role in atmospheric and in marine processes This manuscript describes an experimental study by FT-ICR techniques of the gas-phase reactions of OH(-) and F(-) with methyl and ethyl Innate For methyl nitrate, the main reaction channel is found to be an elimination process promoted by abstraction of an a proton from the methyl group. Nucleophilic displacement of nitrate anion through an S(N)2 process at the carbon center Is also found to he an important reaction channel with methyl nitrate In ethyl nitrate, Ruination of NO(3)(-) is greatly enhanced and this is attributed to the ease of an E2-type elimination process promoted by proton abstraction at the beta position of the ethyl group. Theoretical calculations at the MP2/6-311+G(3df,2p)//MP2/6-31+G(d) level of theory ale consistent with the relative importance of the reaction channels and suggest that these reactions proceed through a double well potential The calculations also predict that nucleophilic attack by OH(-) at the nitrogen center (Sn2@N) is energetically the rueful ad pathway but experiments with (18)OH(-) showed no evidence for this channel. Single-point calculations reveal a strong preference for approach to the emboli center and may explain the lack of reactivity at the nitrogen center. Calculations were also carried out or NH(2)(-) and SH(-) to establish the reactivity pattern to provide a better understanding of environmentally relevant nitrate esters.

Unusual spectroscopic properties of PPE/TiO2 composite and its sensor response to TNT

A composite from a broad bandgap polymer, poly(phenylene ethylene) (PPE), and nano-sized TiO₂ particles was found to be able to sense 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene (TNT) for TNT sensor. Fluorescence quenching induced by charge transfer from PPE to nano-sized TiO₂ was observed in toluene solution. At high TiO₂ composition, a strong exciplex band occurred at 550 nm. Under prolonged light irradiation at 400 nm, unusual fluorescence gains took place at 460 nm, companied with a very small change in the UV–vis absorbance. After 30 min light irradiation, the fluorescence at 460 nm reached a maximum, but the peak at 550 nm disappeared. This composite showed amplified sensor response to TNT compared to the pristine PPE film, which can be potentially used as sensing material for detecting TNT based explosives.

Conjugated polymer−titania nanoparticle hybrid films : random lasing action and ultrasensitive detection of explosive vapors

We have first demonstrated that a random laser action generated by a hybrid film composed of a semiconducting organic polymer (SOP) and TiO₂ nanoparticles can be used to detect 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene (TNT) vapors. The hybrid film was fabricated by spin-casting SOP solution dispersed with nanosized TiO₂ particles on quartz glass. The SOP in the hybrid film functioned as both the gain medium and the sensory transducer. A random lasing action was observed with a certain pump power when the size (diameter of 50 nm) and concentration (8.9 - 10¹²/cm³) of TiO₂ nanoparticles were optimized. Measurements of fluorescence quenching behavior of the hybrid film in TNT vapor atmosphere (10 ppb) showed that attenuated lasing in optically pumped hybrid film displayed a sensitivity to vapors of explosives more than 20 times higher than was observed from spontaneous emission. This phenomenon has been explained with the four-level laser model. Since the sensory transducer used in the hybrid polymer/nanoparticles system could be replaced by other functional materials, the concept developed could be extended to more general domains of chemical or environment detection.

The Dresden firebombing : memory and the politics of commemorating destruction

The firebombing of Dresden marks the terrible apex of the European bombing war. In just over two days in February 1945, over 1,300 heavy bombers from the RAF and the USAAF dropped nearly 4,000 tonnes of explosives on Dresden's civilian centre.Since the end of World War II, both the death toll and the motivation for the attack have become fierce historical battlegrounds, as German feelings of victimhood complete with those of guilt and loss. The Dresden bombing was used by East Germany as a propaganda tool, and has been re-appropriated by the neo-Nazi far right. Meanwhile the rebuilding of the Frauenkirche- the city's sumptuous eighteenth-century church destroyed in the raid-became central to German identity, while in London, a statue of the Commander-in-Chief of RAF Bomber Command, Sir Arthur Harris, has attracted protests. In this book, Tony Joel focuses on the historical battle to re-appropriate Dresden, and on how World War II continues to shape British and German identity today.

Detection of nitro-explosive compounds using derivatization and tris(2,2'-bipyridyl)ruthenium(II) chemiluminescence

This thesis describes a novel approach towards the trace level detection of nitramine explosives, by exploring various reduction strategies and utilising ruthenium chemiluminescence. Synthesis of novel chemiluminescence compounds has been achieved, as well as the development of a detection method for determining the shelf life of ammunition.

A política pública para resposta às ameaças químicas, biológicas, radiológicas, nucleares e explosivas

Esta pesquisa objetiva verificar de que forma, no Brasil, as políticas públicas relacionadas às ameaças químicas, biológicas, radiológicas, nucleares e explosivas (QBRNE) contribuem para o preparo de resposta a um incidente de tal natureza. No mundo contemporâneo há uma concentração das populações nos centros urbanos, tornando-as vulneráveis a desastres químicos, biológicos, radiológicos e nucleares, os quais podem ser desencadeados por eventos adversos, intencionais ou não, resultando em grandes impactos humanos, ambientais, materiais, sociais e econômicos à nação. O terrorismo é uma das possibilidades de ocorrência de um grande desastre, utilizando-se principalmente de atentados com explosivos e podendo se valer dos efeitos dos agentes contaminantes. Então, foram pesquisadas e apresentadas políticas públicas e ações do governo federal norte-americano para o trato de ameaças QBRNE, as quais são comparadas à situação prospectada no território brasileiro, por meio da legislação, políticas públicas, orçamento, documentos e bibliografia. Diversas instituições foram avaliadas quanto ao papel a ser desempenhado em uma situação emergencial, sendo os dados tratados por análise de conteúdo e historiografia. A literatura sobre política pública é ampla, com rica discussão sobre as boas práticas de gestão pública, a evolução do papel dos servidores públicos para um ser técnico e político simultaneamente e de que maneira é influenciada a concepção de uma política pública. O Modelo de Fluxos Múltiplos e a Teoria de Equilíbrio Pontuado são usados para compreender o processo dinâmico de construção da agenda decisória no governo federal para o tema estudado. Concluiu-se que as políticas públicas de resposta para ameaças QBRNE surgem dispersas em diversas instituições, promovidas pelas equipes técnicas, de maneira descentralizada e sem uma orientação do governo central, o que acarreta sobreposição de atividades, havendo casos de problemas não tratados, desprezando-se a complementação de recursos e efetivos.

Improvement on the sales forecast accuracy for a fast growing company by the best combination of historical data usage and clients segmentation

Industrial companies in developing countries are facing rapid growths, and this requires having in place the best organizational processes to cope with the market demand. Sales forecasting, as a tool aligned with the general strategy of the company, needs to be as much accurate as possible, in order to achieve the sales targets by making available the right information for purchasing, planning and control of production areas, and finally attending in time and form the demand generated. The present dissertation uses a single case study from the subsidiary of an international explosives company based in Brazil, Maxam, experiencing high growth in sales, and therefore facing the challenge to adequate its structure and processes properly for the rapid growth expected. Diverse sales forecast techniques have been analyzed to compare the actual monthly sales forecast, based on the sales force representatives’ market knowledge, with forecasts based on the analysis of historical sales data. The dissertation findings show how the combination of both qualitative and quantitative forecasts, by the creation of a combined forecast that considers both client´s demand knowledge from the sales workforce with time series analysis, leads to the improvement on the accuracy of the company´s sales forecast.

Avaliação de concreto com adição de fibras de PET submetido a altas temperaturas

The concrete for centuries constituted an essential structural element in the construction industry due to its relative ease of forming, before the weather durability, low cost, its lower maintenance compared to other materials such as steel. However, when the concrete is exposed to high temperatures tends to lose its mechanical characteristics, and may even result in loss of section, which undermines the stability and mechanical strength of structural elements. The pathologies resulting from exposure to elevated temperatures ranging from cracks, pops up chipping explosives (spalling). Recently, the technology of concrete is closely related to the study of its microstructure. The use of fibers added to concrete has been revealed as a solution to increase the mechanical strength of the concrete, it acts directly on the distribution of efforts to act in the play within the microstructure. In this work we used recycled PET fibers embedded in concrete with 15x2mm fck = 30MPa, water/cement ratio of 0.46, in works made for verification of mechanical strength of this mixture submitted to high temperature. The specimens of concrete with addition of PET fibers were tested after exposure to temperatures: ambient (30ºC), 100°C, 200°C, 300°C, 400°C, 600°C and 900°C. It was found that the concrete loses significant strength when exposed to temperatures above 300°C, however the use of fiber PET may delay the risk of collapse of structures for the formation of a network of channels that facilitate the escape of vapor 'water, reducing the pore pressure inside the structural element

Estudo de concretos de diferentes resistências à compressão submetidos a altas temperaturas sem e com incorporação de fibras de politereftalato de etileno (PET)

The reinforced concrete structures are largely used in buildings worldwide. Upon the occurrence of fire in buildings, there is a consensus among researchers that the concrete has a high resistance to fire, due mainly to its low thermal conductivity. However, this does not mean that this material is not affected by exposure to high temperatures. Reduction of the compressive strength, modulus of elasticity, discoloration and cracking, are some of the effects caused by thermal exposure. In the case of concretes with higher resistance occurs even desplacamentos explosives, exposing the reinforcement to fire and contributing to reducing the support capacity of the structural element. Considering the above, this study aims to examine how the compressive strength and porosity of concrete are affected when subjected to high temperatures. Were evaluated concrete of different resistances, and even was the verified if addition fibers of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) in concrete can be used as an alternative to preventing spalling. The results indicated that explosive spalling affect not only high strength concrete whose values of this study ranged from 70 to 88 MPa, as well as conventional concrete of medium strength (52 MPa) and the temperature range to which the concrete begins to suffer significant changes in their resistance is between 400 º C and 600 º C, showing to 600 º C a porosity up to 188% greater than the room temperature

Estudo do potencial da técnica de nanossísmica para o monitoramento de hidrofraturamento em reservatórios de hidrocarbonetos

Hydraulic fracturing is an operation in which pressurised fluid is injected in the geological formation surrounding the producing well to create new permeable paths for hydrocarbons. The injection of such fluids in the reservoir induces seismic events. The measurement of this reservoir stimulation can be made by location these induced microseismic events. However, microseismic monitoring is an expensive operation because the acquisition and data interpretation system using in this monitoring rely on high signal-to-noise ratios (SNR). In general, the sensors are deployed in a monitoring well near the treated well and can make a microseismic monitoring quite an expensive operation. In this dissertation we propose the application of a new method for recording and location of microseismic events called nanoseismic monitoring (Joswig, 2006). In this new method, a continuous recording is performed and the interpreter can separate events from noise using sonograms. This new method also allows the location of seismic sources even when P and S phases onsets are not clear like in situations of 0 dB SNR. The clear technical advantage of this new method is also economically advantageous since the sensors can potentially be installed on the surface rather than in observation well. In this dissertation field tests with controlled sources were made. In the first test small explosives using fire works at 28 m (slant distances) were detected yealding magnitudes between -2.4 ≤ ML ≤ -1.6.. In a second test, we monitored perforation shots in a producing oil field. In this second test, one perforation shot was located with slant distances of 861 m and magnitude 2.4 ML. Data from the tests allow us to say that the method has potential to be used in the oil industry to monitor hydrofracture