Use of niche models in invasive species risk assessments.

Risk maps summarizing landscape suitability of novel areas for invading species can be valuable tools for preventing species' invasions or controlling their spread, but methods employed for development of such maps remain variable and unstandardized. We discuss several considerations in development of such models, including types of distributional information that should be used, the nature of explanatory variables that should be incorporated, and caveats regarding model testing and evaluation. We highlight that, in the case of invasive species, such distributional predictions should aim to derive the best hypothesis of the potential distribution of the species by using (1) all distributional information available, including information from both the native range and other invaded regions; (2) predictors linked as directly as is feasible to the physiological requirements of the species; and (3) modelling procedures that carefully avoid overfitting to the training data. Finally, model testing and evaluation should focus on well-predicted presences, and less on efficient prediction of absences; a k-fold regional cross-validation test is discussed.

Análisis de convergencia de las regiones de la zona euro (1990-2010)

Since the birth of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), policies have been implemented in the Member States of the European Union (EU) to lead them towards economic convergence. This article analyses the convergence of the 174 regions that exist in the 17 euro-zone countries in the years from 1990 to 2010. The article specifies a space-time econometric model using the hypotheses of conditioned beta-convergence and sigmaconvergence. The dependent variables of the model are per capita GDP and productivity and the explanatory variables are real economic variables. Beta-convergence is found to exist between the countries of the euro-zone in terms of per capita GDP, but there is divergence in terms of productivity, though only at country level. In other words, the hypothesis is confirmed that it is guidelines at country level that lead to hypothetical convergence and that the unfavourable performance of productivity is due, without doubt, to differences in behaviour between the active populations of the different euro zone countries

Who is afraid of the big bad ban? An evaluation of the effects of the Spanish clean air law on expenditure at hospitality venues

Background:In January 2011 Spain modified clean air legislation in force since 2006, removing all existing exceptions applicable to hospitality venues. Although this legal reform was backed by all political parties with parliamentary representation, the government's initiative was contested by the tobacco industry and its allies in the hospitality industry. One of the most voiced arguments against the reform was its potentially disruptive effect on the revenue of hospitality venues. This paper evaluates the impact of this reform on household expenditure at restaurants and bars and cafeterias. Methods and empirical strategy:We use micro-data from the Encuesta de Presupuestos Familiares (EPF) for years 2006 to 2012 to estimate "two part" models where the probability of observing a positive expenditure and, for those who spend, the expected level of expenditure are functions of an array of explanatory variables. We apply a before-after analysis with a wide range of controls for confounding factors and a flexible modeling of time effects.Results:In line with the majority of studies that analyze the effects of smoking bans using objective data, our results suggest that the reform did not cause reductions in households' expenditures on restaurant services or on bars and cafeteria services.

Sähkön markkinahintaa selittävät tekijät. Case: Nord Pool 2000-2005

Sähkön markkinahinta on saanut osakseen suurta huomiota viimeaikoina. Sähkömarkkinoiden vapautuminen ja päästökaupan avaaminen Euroopassa onentisestään nostanut sähkömarkkinoita näkyville lehdissä. Tämä tutkielma tutkii erilaisten tekijöiden vaikutusta sähkön markkinahintaan regressioanalyysin avulla. Edellä mainitun päästösopimusten markkinahinnan lisäksi tutkittiin kivihiilen sekä maakaasun markkinahintojen, lämpötilojen, jokien virtaamien, vesivarantojen täyttöasteiden sekä Saksan sähkömarkkinoiden hinnan vaikutusta sähkön markkinahintaan Nord Pool -sähköpörssissä. Työssä luotiin myös sähkön markkinahintaa ennustava malli. Kaikkien selittävien tekijöiden korrelaatiot olivat oletusten mukaiset ja regressioanalyysi onnistui selittämään yli 80 % sähkön markkinahinnan vaih-teluista. Merkittävimpiä selittäviä tekijöitä olivat vesivarannot sekä jokien virtaamat. Ennustavan mallin keskimääräinen suhteellinen virhe oli noin 10 %, joten ennustetarkkuus oli melko hyvä.

Peso problem anddevaluation expectations: Evidence from Latin America

Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on tutkia peso-ongelmaa sekä devalvaatio-odotuksia seuraavissa Latinalaisen Amerikan maissa: Argentiina, Brasilia, Costa Rica, Uruguay ja Venezuela. Lisäksi tutkitaan, onko peso-ongelmalla mahdollista selittää korkojen epäsäännöllistä käyttäytymistä ennen todellisen devalvaation tapahtumista. Jotta näiden tutkiminen olisi mahdollista, lasketaan markkinoiden odotettu devalvaation todennäköisyys tutkittavissa maissa. Odotettu devalvaation todennäköisyys lasketaan aikavälillä tammikuusta 1996 joulukuuhun 2006 käyttäen kahta erilaista mallia. Korkoero-mallin mukaan maiden välisestä korkoerosta on mahdollista laskea markkinoiden devalvaatio-odotukset. Toiseksi, Probit-mallissa käytetään useita makrotaloudellisia tekijöitä selittävinä muuttujina laskettaessa odotettua devalvaation todennäköisyyttä. Lisäksi tutkitaan, miten yksittäisten makrotaloudellisten muuttujien kehitys vaikuttaa odotettuun devalvaation todennäköisyyteen. Empiiriset tulokset osoittavat, että tutkituissa Latinalaisen Amerikan maissa oli peso-ongelma aikavälillä tammikuusta 1996 joulukuuhun 2006. Korkoero-mallin tulosten mukaan peso-ongelma löytyi kaikista muista tutkituista maista lukuun ottamatta Argentiinaa. Vastaavasti Probit-mallin mukaan peso-ongelma löytyi kaikista tutkituista maista. Tulokset osoittavat myös, että korkojen epäsäännöllinen kehitys ennen varsinaista devalvaatiota on mahdollista selittää peso-ongelmalla. Probit-mallin tulokset osoittavat lisäksi, että makrotaloudellisten muuttujien kehityksellä ei ole mitään tiettyä kaavaa liittyen siihen, kuinka ne vaikuttavat markkinoiden devalvaatio-odotuksiin Latinalaisessa Amerikassa. Pikemmin vaikutukset näyttävät olevan maakohtaisia.

Determinants of credit default swap spread: evidence from european credit derivatives market

Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on selvittää, mitkä tekijät vaikuttavat yrityksen ja valtion velkakirjojen väliseen tuottoeroon. Strukturaalisten luottoriskin hinnoittelumallien mukaan luottoriskiin vaikuttavia tekijöitä ovat yrityksen velkaantumisaste, volatiliteetti ja riskitön korkokanta. Tavoitteena on erityisesti tutkia, kuinka hyvin nämä teoreettiset tekijät selittävät tuottoeroja ja onko olemassa muita tärkeitä selittäviä tekijöitä. Luottoriskinvaihtosopimusten noteerauksia käytetään tuottoerojen määrittämiseen. Selittävät tekijät koostuvat sekä yrityskohtaisista että markkinalaajuisista muuttujista. Luottoriskinvaihtosopimusten ja yrityskohtaisten muuttujien data on kerätty yhteensä 50 yritykselle Euroalueen maista. Aineisto koostuu kuukausittaisista havainnoista aikaväliltä 01.01.2003-31.12.2006. Empiiriset tulokset osoittavat, että strukturaalisten mallien mukaiset tekijät selittävät vain pienen osan tuottoeron muutoksista yli ajan. Toisaalta nämä teoreettiset tekijät selittävät huomattavasti paremmin tuottoeron vaihtelua yli poikkileikkauksen. Muut kuin teoreettiset tekijät pystyvät selittämään suuren osan tuottoeron vaihtelusta. Erityisen tärkeäksi tuottoeron selittäväksi tekijäksi osoittautui yleinen riskipreemio velkakirjamarkkinoilla. Tulokset osoittavat, että luottoriskin hinnoittelumalleja on kehitettävä edelleenniin, että ne ottaisivat huomioon yrityskohtaisten tekijöiden lisäksi myös markkinalaajuisia tekijöitä.

Breast cancer incidence and overdiagnosis in Catalonia (Spain)

Introduction: Early detection of breast cancer (BC) with mammography may cause overdiagnosis and overtreatment, detecting tumors which would remain undiagnosed during a lifetime. The aims of this study were: first, to model invasive BC incidence trends in Catalonia (Spain) taking into account reproductive and screening data; and second, to quantify the extent of BC overdiagnosis. Methods: We modeled the incidence of invasive BC using a Poisson regression model. Explanatory variables were: age at diagnosis and cohort characteristics (completed fertility rate, percentage of women that use mammography at age 50, and year of birth). This model also was used to estimate the background incidence in the absence of screening. We used a probabilistic model to estimate the expected BC incidence if women in the population used mammography as reported in health surveys. The difference between the observed and expected cumulative incidences provided an estimate of overdiagnosis. Results: Incidence of invasive BC increased, especially in cohorts born from 1940 to 1955. The biggest increase was observed in these cohorts between the ages of 50 to 65 years, where the final BC incidence rates more than doubled the initial ones. Dissemination of mammography was significantly associated with BC incidence and overdiagnosis. Our estimates of overdiagnosis ranged from 0.4% to 46.6%, for women born around 1935 and 1950, respectively. Conclusions: Our results support the existence of overdiagnosis in Catalonia attributed to mammography usage, and the limited malignant potential of some tumors may play an important role. Women should be better informed about this risk. Research should be oriented towards personalized screening and risk assessment tools.

Persistence of Transmitted HIV-1 Drug Resistance Mutations Associated with Fitness Costs and Viral Genetic Backgrounds.

Transmission of drug-resistant pathogens presents an almost-universal challenge for fighting infectious diseases. Transmitted drug resistance mutations (TDRM) can persist in the absence of drugs for considerable time. It is generally believed that differential TDRM-persistence is caused, at least partially, by variations in TDRM-fitness-costs. However, in vivo epidemiological evidence for the impact of fitness costs on TDRM-persistence is rare. Here, we studied the persistence of TDRM in HIV-1 using longitudinally-sampled nucleotide sequences from the Swiss-HIV-Cohort-Study (SHCS). All treatment-naïve individuals with TDRM at baseline were included. Persistence of TDRM was quantified via reversion rates (RR) determined with interval-censored survival models. Fitness costs of TDRM were estimated in the genetic background in which they occurred using a previously published and validated machine-learning algorithm (based on in vitro replicative capacities) and were included in the survival models as explanatory variables. In 857 sequential samples from 168 treatment-naïve patients, 17 TDRM were analyzed. RR varied substantially and ranged from 174.0/100-person-years;CI=[51.4, 588.8] (for 184V) to 2.7/100-person-years;[0.7, 10.9] (for 215D). RR increased significantly with fitness cost (increase by 1.6[1.3,2.0] per standard deviation of fitness costs). When subdividing fitness costs into the average fitness cost of a given mutation and the deviation from the average fitness cost of a mutation in a given genetic background, we found that both components were significantly associated with reversion-rates. Our results show that the substantial variations of TDRM persistence in the absence of drugs are associated with fitness-cost differences both among mutations and among different genetic backgrounds for the same mutation.

Regional determinants of firm entry in a developing country

We analyse the determinants of firm entry in developing countries using Argentina as an illustrative case. Our main finding is that although most of the regional determinants used in previous studies analysing developed countries are also relevant here, there is a need for additional explanatory variables that proxy for the specificities of developing economies (e.g., poverty, informal economy and idle capacity).We also find evidence of a core-periphery pattern in the spatial structure of entry that seems to be mostly driven by differences in agglomeration economies. Since regional policies aiming to attract new firms are largely based on evidence from developed countries, our results raise doubts about the usefulness of such policies when applied to developing economies. JEL classification: R12, R30, C33. Key words: Firm entry, Argentina, count data models.

Repeatability, correlation and path analysis of physical and chemical characteristics of peach fruits

This study aimed to determine the number of measurements necessary to evaluate physical and chemical characteristics of peach fruits, study the relationships between them and their direct and indirect effects on the content of ascorbic acid and total carotenoids. The characteristics skin and pulp color, fruit weight, suture, equatorial and polar diameters, firmness, soluble solids (SS), titratable acidity (TA), SS/TA ratio, ascorbic acid and total carotenoids were evaluated in 39 cultivars of peach and 3 cultivars of nectarine from the orchard of the Universidade Federal de Viçosa. The repeatability coefficient was estimated by ANOVA and CPCOR. Phenotypic correlation coefficients (rf) were estimated and, after the multicollinearity diagnostics, they were unfolded to direct and indirect effects of the explanatory variables on the response variable using path analysis. There was agreement on the magnitude of repeatability coefficients obtained by the two methods; however, they varied among the 14 characteristics. The highest correlations were found between FW, SD, ED and PD. Seven fruits are sufficient to evaluate the physical and chemical characteristics of peach with a correlation coefficient of 90%. The characteristics considered in the path diagrams (b* skin, hº skin, b* pulp, hº pulp, ED, PD, FIR, SS, SS/AT and TC) are not the main determinants of the ascorbic acid. The yellow hue of the pulp (hº pulp) has the potential to be used in indirect selection for total carotenoids.

Taloudellinen lisäarvo ja suhdanne-vaihtelut

Tutkimusongelmana oli ratkaista onko taloudellisella lisäarvolla ja suhdannevaihteluilla yhteyttä ja selittääkö suhdannevaihtelut taloudellisen lisäarvon vaihteluja. Empiirisenä aineistona oli 79 suomalaista pörssiyritystä, (kuljetus- ja huolinta, metalli- ja metsäteollisuus sekä auto- ja vähittäiskauppa). Tutkimusperiodina olivat vuodet 1986-2000. Tilastollisena tutkimusmenetelmänä oli regressioanalyysi, jossa selitettävänä muuttujana oli taloudellinen lisäarvo ja selittävänä muuttujana oli bruttokansantuoteprosentti. Analyysit tehtiin toimialamediaanina. Regressiomallin tulosten mukaan suhdannevaihtelut selittävät hyvin kuljetus- ja huolinta-alan yritysten taloudellisen lisäarvon vaihteluita. Metalliteollisuuden- ja autokaupan yritysten taloudelliset lisäarvot korreloivat jonkin verran suhdannevaihteluiden kanssa. Vähittäiskauppa ja metsäteollisuus eivät korreloineet suhdannevaihteluiden kanssa ollenkaan.

The relation between internet use and overweight among adolescents: a longitudinal study in Switzerland.

OBJECTIVE: This longitudinal study aimed to investigate the characteristics and predictive risk factors of overweight among adolescents. The hypothesis was that baseline overweight predicted most overweight over time compared to other factors, especially excessive internet use. SUBJECTS: A sample of 621 youths were followed from age 14 (T0 Spring 2012) to age 16 (T1 Spring 2014) in Switzerland. Participants were divided into two groups according to their weight at the final assessment: overweight and non-overweight. At T0, participants reported demographic, health, substance use and internet use data. A logistic regression was performed to assess the explanatory variables of overweight at T1. Data are presented as adjusted odds ratios (aORs) with 95% confidence interval. RESULTS: The 2-year evolution showed a net BMI increase of 4.8%. Overweight adolescents were significantly more likely to be male, to live in an urban area, to be on a diet and to report using the internet more than 2 h per day on weekends at T0. However, with the addition of baseline overweight, only the excessive use of internet on weekends remained as an explanatory variable. An adolescent who was already overweight at T0 had a more than 20-fold risk (aOR 21.04) of being overweight 2 years later. Moreover, among adolescents becoming overweight between T0 and T1, internet use did not show any significant effect. CONCLUSION: The risk of being overweight is mostly influenced by weight status at baseline compared to excessive internet use. Thus, our results do not confirm the negative effect of internet on healthier activities. Internet use could at most reinforce an already existing risk of being overweight.

Young Firms and R&D subsidies in Catalonia

Based on four different public R&D calls from the Catalan government, this article evaluates the propensity of entrants and young firms to apply for R&D public grants and, as compared to their counterparts, their capacity for obtaining subsides. This analysis is particularly relevant since entrants and young firms encounter greater market difficulties. Our sample contains 22,139 firms and corresponds to a merge of two databases: one from the Catalan agency responsible for promoting private innovation (ACC1Ó) and the other from the Mercantile Register. Merging these databases has two advantages. Firstly, participants and non-participants in the public R&D call (“InnoEmpresa”) are included and, secondly, it provides us with information at firm and project level. The period of observation is between 2006 and 2010, since some explanatory variables are lagged by one period. We apply a two-step methodology. Our results show that entrants and young firms show a lower propensity to apply for R&D subsidies and to obtain R&D public grants. Firm size, exports and participation in a previous call show a positive impact on the likelihood of applying, and firms located in the Barcelona metropolitan area have a greater propensity to apply. Additionally, project quality and R&D cooperative reports presented jointly with other partners have a positive impact on the likelihood of obtaining the R&D subsidy. Finally, firms that have previously obtained an R&D subsidy do not exhibit a greater propensity for obtaining subsequent grants. Keywords: R&D subsidies, entrants and young firms Classification JEL: L53, L25, O38

Online and Offline Participation at the Local Level : A Quantitative Analysis of the Catalan Municipalities

This paper presents a first analysis on local electronic participatory experiences in Catalonia. The analysis is based on a database constructed and collected by the authors. The paper carries out an explanatory analysis of local initiatives in eparticipationand off line participation taking into account political variables (usually not considered in this kind of analysis) but also classical socio-economic variables that characterise municipalities. Hence, we add a quantitative analysis to the numerous case studies on local e-participation experiences. We have chosen Catalonia because is one of the European regions with more initiatives and one that has enjoyed considerable local governmental support to citizen participation initiatives since the 80s. The paper offers a characterisation of these experiences and a first explanatory analysis, considering: i) the institutional context in which these experiences are embedded, ii) the characteristics of the citizen participation processes and mechanisms on-line, and iii) a set of explanatory variables composed by the population size, thepolitical adscription of the mayor, the electoral abstention rate, age, income and level ofeducation in the municipality. The model that we present is explanatory for the municipalities with more than 20,000 inhabitants but it is not for the fewer than 20,000inhabitants. Actually, the number of participatory activities developed by these last municipalities is very low. Among all the variables, population size becomes the mostinfluential variable. Political variables such as political party of the mayor and the localabstention rate have a certain influence but that have to be controlled by population size.

Ecological and physiological variance in T-cell mediated immune response in Cory's shearwaters

T-cell mediated immune response (CMI) hasbeen widely studied in relation to individual andfitness components in birds. However, few studieshave simultaneously examined individual and socialfactors and habitat-mediated variance in theimmunity of chicks and adults from the samepopulation and in the same breeding season. Weinvestigated ecological and physiological variancein CMI of male and female nestlings and adults in abreeding population of Cory's Shearwaters(Calonectrisdiomedea) in theMediterranean Sea. Explanatory variables includedindividual traits (body condition, carbon andnitrogen stable isotope ratios, plasma totalproteins, triglycerides, uric acid, osmolarity,β-hydroxy-butyrate, erythrocyte meancorpuscular diameter, hematocrit, andhemoglobin) and burrow traits(temperature, isolation, and physicalstructure). During incubation, immune responseof adult males was significantly greater than thatof females. Nestlings exhibited a lower immuneresponse than adults. Ecological and physiologicalfactors affecting immune response differed betweenadults and nestlings. General linear models showedthat immune response in adult males was positivelyassociated with burrow isolation, suggesting thatmales breeding at higher densities suffer immunesystem suppression. In contrast, immune response inchicks was positively associated with bodycondition and plasma triglyceride levels.Therefore, adult immune response appears to beassociated with social stress, whereas a trade-offbetween immune function and fasting capability mayexist for nestlings. Our results, and those fromprevious studies, provide support for anasymmetrical influence of ecological andphysiological factors on the health of differentage and sex groups within a population, and for theimportance of simultaneously considering individualand population characteristics in intraspecificstudies of immune response.