828 resultados para expected value of information
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The ability to utilize information systems (IS) effectively is becoming a necessity for business professionals. However, individuals differ in their abilities to use IS effectively, with some achieving exceptional performance in IS use and others being unable to do so. Therefore, developing a set of skills and attributes to achieve IS user competency, or the ability to realize the fullest potential and the greatest performance from IS use, is important. Various constructs have been identified in the literature to describe IS users with regard to their intentions to use IS and their frequency of IS usage, but studies to describe the relevant characteristics associated with highly competent IS users, or those who have achieved IS user competency, are lacking. This research develops a model of IS user competency by using the Repertory Grid Technique to identify a broad set of characteristics of highly competent IS users. A qualitative analysis was carried out to identify categories and sub-categories of these characteristics. Then, based on the findings, a subset of the model of IS user competency focusing on the IS-specific factors – domain knowledge of and skills in IS, willingness to try and to explore IS, and perception of IS value – was developed and validated using the survey approach. The survey findings suggest that all three factors are relevant and important to IS user competency, with willingness to try and to explore IS being the most significant factor. This research generates a rich set of factors explaining IS user competency, such as perception of IS value. The results not only highlight characteristics that can be fostered in IS users to improve their performance with IS use, but also present research opportunities for IS training and potential hiring criteria for IS users in organizations.
Assessing Pathogenicity for Novel Mutation/Sequence Variants: The Value of Healthy Older Individuals
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Improvement in DNA technology is increasingly revealing unexpected/unknown mutations in healthy persons and generating anxiety due to their still unknown health consequences. We report a 44-year-old healthy father of a 10-year-old daughter with bilateral coloboma and hearing loss, but without muscle weakness, in whom a whole-genome CGH revealed a deletion of exons 38-44 in the dystrophin gene. This mutation was inherited from her asymptomatic father, who was further clinically and molecularly evaluated for prognosis and genetic counseling (GC). This deletion was never identified by us in 982 Duchenne/Becker patients. To assess whether the present case represents a rare case of non-penetrance, and aiming to obtain more information for prognosis and GC, we suggested that healthy older relatives submit their DNA for analysis, to which several complied. Mutation analysis revealed that his mother, brother, and 56-year-old maternal uncle also carry the 38-44 deletion, suggesting it an unlikely cause of muscle weakness. Genome sequencing will disclose mutations and variants whose health impact are still unknown, raising important problems in interpreting results, defining prognosis, and discussing GC. We suggest that, in addition to family history, keeping the DNA of older relatives could be very informative, in particular for those interested in having their genome sequenced.
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Abstract Background Prior to the selection of disinfectants for low, intermediate and high (sterilizing) levels, the decimal reduction time, D-value, for the most common and persistent bacteria identified at a health care facility should be determined. Methods The D-value was determined by inoculating 100 mL of disinfecting solution with 1 mL of a bacterial suspension (104 – 105 CFU/mL for vegetative and spore forms). At regular intervals, 1 mL aliquots of this mixture were transferred to 8 mL of growth media containing a neutralizing agent, and incubated at optimal conditions for the microorganism. Results The highest D-values for various bacteria were determined for the following solutions: (i) 0.1% sodium dichloroisocyanurate (pH 7.0) – E. coli and A. calcoaceticus (D = 5.9 min); (ii) sodium hypochlorite (pH 7.0) at 0.025% for B. stearothermophilus (D = 24 min), E. coli and E. cloacae (D = 7.5 min); at 0.05% for B. stearothermophilus (D = 9.4 min) and E. coli (D = 6.1 min) and 0.1% for B. stearothermophilus (D = 3.5 min) and B. subtilis (D = 3.2 min); (iii) 2.0% glutaraldehyde (pH 7.4) – B. stearothermophilus, B. subtilis (D = 25 min) and E. coli (D = 7.1 min); (iv) 0.5% formaldehyde (pH 6.5) – B. subtilis (D = 11.8 min), B. stearothermophilus (D = 10.9 min) and A. calcoaceticus (D = 5.2 min); (v) 2.0% chlorhexidine (pH 6.2) – B. stearothermophilus (D = 9.1 min), and at 0.4% for E. cloacae (D = 8.3 min); (vi) 1.0% Minncare® (peracetic acid and hydrogen peroxide, pH 2.3) – B. stearothermophilus (D = 9.1 min) and E. coli (D = 6.7 min). Conclusions The suspension studies were an indication of the disinfectant efficacy on a surface. The data in this study reflect the formulations used and may vary from product to product. The expected effectiveness from the studied formulations showed that the tested agents can be recommended for surface disinfection as stated in present guidelines and emphasizes the importance and need to develop routine and novel programs to evaluate product utility.
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AIMS: Although an added diagnostic and prognostic value of the global coronary artery calcification (CAC) score as an adjunct to single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT)-myocardial perfusion image (MPI) has been repeatedly documented, none of the previous studies took advantage of the anatomic information provided by the unenhanced cardiac CT. Therefore, no co-registration has so far been used to match a myocardial perfusion defect with calcifications in the subtending coronary artery. To evaluate the prognostic value of integrating SPECT-MPI with CAC images were obtained from non-enhanced cardiac computed tomography (CT) for attenuation correction to predict major adverse cardiac events (MACE). METHODS AND RESULTS: Follow-up was obtained in 462 patients undergoing a 1-day stress/rest (99m)Tc-teterofosmin SPECT and non-enhanced cardiac CT for attenuation correction. Survival free of MACE was determined using the Kaplan-Meier method. After integrating MPI and CT findings, patients were divided into three groups (i) MPI defect matched by calcification (CAC ≥ 1) in the subtending coronary artery (ii) unmatched MPI and CT finding (iii) normal finding by MPI and CT. At a mean follow-up of 34.5 ± 13 months, a MACE was observed in 80 patients (33 death, 6 non-fatal myocardial infarction, 9 hospitalizations due to unstable angina, and 32 revascularizations). Survival analysis revealed the most unfavourable outcome (P < 0.001 log-rank test) for patients with a matched finding. CONCLUSION: In the present study, a novel approach using a combined integration of cardiac SPECT-CAC imaging allows for refined risk stratification, as a matched defect emerged as an independent predictor of MACE.
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The construction of a reliable, practically useful prediction rule for future response is heavily dependent on the "adequacy" of the fitted regression model. In this article, we consider the absolute prediction error, the expected value of the absolute difference between the future and predicted responses, as the model evaluation criterion. This prediction error is easier to interpret than the average squared error and is equivalent to the mis-classification error for the binary outcome. We show that the distributions of the apparent error and its cross-validation counterparts are approximately normal even under a misspecified fitted model. When the prediction rule is "unsmooth", the variance of the above normal distribution can be estimated well via a perturbation-resampling method. We also show how to approximate the distribution of the difference of the estimated prediction errors from two competing models. With two real examples, we demonstrate that the resulting interval estimates for prediction errors provide much more information about model adequacy than the point estimates alone.
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The coronary artery calcium (CAC) score is a readily and widely available tool for the noninvasive diagnosis of atherosclerotic coronary artery disease (CAD). The aim of this study was to investigate the added value of the CAC score as an adjunct to gated SPECT for the assessment of CAD in an intermediate-risk population. METHODS: Seventy-seven prospectively recruited patients with intermediate risk (as determined by the Framingham Heart Study 10-y CAD risk score) and referred for coronary angiography because of suspected CAD underwent stress (99m)Tc-tetrofosmin SPECT myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) and CT CAC scoring within 2 wk before coronary angiography. The sensitivity and specificity of SPECT alone and of the combination of the 2 methods (SPECT plus CAC score) in demonstrating significant CAD (>/=50% stenosis on coronary angiography) were compared. RESULTS: Forty-two (55%) of the 77 patients had CAD on coronary angiography, and 35 (45%) had abnormal SPECT results. The CAC score was significantly higher in subjects with perfusion abnormalities than in those who had normal SPECT results (889 +/- 836 [mean +/- SD] vs. 286 +/- 335; P < 0.0001). Similarly, with rising CAC scores, a larger percentage of patients had CAD. Receiver-operating-characteristic analysis showed that a CAC score of greater than or equal to 709 was the optimal cutoff for detecting CAD missed by SPECT. SPECT alone had a sensitivity and a specificity for the detection of significant CAD of 76% and 91%, respectively. Combining SPECT with the CAC score (at a cutoff of 709) improved the sensitivity of SPECT (from 76% to 86%) for the detection of CAD, in association with a nonsignificant decrease in specificity (from 91% to 86%). CONCLUSION: The CAC score may offer incremental diagnostic information over SPECT data for identifying patients with significant CAD and negative MPI results.
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The clinical value of early exercise stress testing (EST) after coronary stenting to predict long-term clinical outcomes is unknown. Of 1,000 unselected patients who underwent coronary stenting, 446 random patients underwent early EST the day after intervention. Clinical long-term outcomes (41 +/- 20 months) were correlated with normal (n = 314 [70%]) or positive (n = 102 [23%]) EST results. Patients with inconclusive test results (n = 30 [7%]) were excluded from the analysis. Overall mortality was significantly higher in patients with positive EST results (9.3% vs 3.9%, p = 0.04). Major adverse cardiac events and cardiac mortality also tended to be higher in patients with positive stress test results (45.4% vs 35.4%, p = 0.08, and 4.1% vs 1.1%, p = 0.05, respectively). Patients with the combination of positive stress test results and incomplete revascularization appeared to be the group at highest risk for major adverse cardiac events (47.1% vs 33.3% for patients with normal stress test results and complete revascularization, p = NS). Negative stress test results reduced (odds ratio 0.329, 95% confidence interval 0.120 to 0.905, p = 0.031) and a lower ejection fraction increased (odds ratio 0.942, 95% confidence interval 0.897 to 0.989, p = 0.017) the risk for death. In conclusion, an early stress test after coronary stenting provides important prognostic information. Positive stress test results, especially in combination with incomplete revascularization, are associated with higher mortality, a trend toward more repeat revascularization procedures, and higher risk for major adverse cardiac events.
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The use of information technology (IT) in dentistry is far ranging. In order to produce a working document for the dental educator, this paper focuses on those methods where IT can assist in the education and competence development of dental students and dentists (e.g. e-learning, distance learning, simulations and computer-based assessment). Web pages and other information-gathering devices have become an essential part of our daily life, as they provide extensive information on all aspects of our society. This is mirrored in dental education where there are many different tools available, as listed in this report. IT offers added value to traditional teaching methods and examples are provided. In spite of the continuing debate on the learning effectiveness of e-learning applications, students request such approaches as an adjunct to the traditional delivery of learning materials. Faculty require support to enable them to effectively use the technology to the benefit of their students. This support should be provided by the institution and it is suggested that, where possible, institutions should appoint an e-learning champion with good interpersonal skills to support and encourage faculty change. From a global prospective, all students and faculty should have access to e-learning tools. This report encourages open access to e-learning material, platforms and programs. The quality of such learning materials must have well defined learning objectives and involve peer review to ensure content validity, accuracy, currency, the use of evidence-based data and the use of best practices. To ensure that the developers' intellectual rights are protected, the original content needs to be secure from unauthorized changes. Strategies and recommendations on how to improve the quality of e-learning are outlined. In the area of assessment, traditional examination schemes can be enriched by IT, whilst the Internet can provide many innovative approaches. Future trends in IT will evolve around improved uptake and access facilitated by the technology (hardware and software). The use of Web 2.0 shows considerable promise and this may have implications on a global level. For example, the one-laptop-per-child project is the best example of what Web 2.0 can do: minimal use of hardware to maximize use of the Internet structure. In essence, simple technology can overcome many of the barriers to learning. IT will always remain exciting, as it is always changing and the users, whether dental students, educators or patients are like chameleons adapting to the ever-changing landscape.
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Introduction and objectives Abdominal sonography is regarded as a quick and effective diagnostic tool for acute abdominal pain in emergency medicine. However, final diagnosis is usually based on a combination of various clinical examinations and radiography. The role of sonography in the decision making process at a hospital with advanced imaging capabilities versus a hospital with limited imaging capabilities but more experienced clinicians is unclear. The aim of this pilot study was to assess the relative importance of sonography and its influence on the clinical management of acute abdominal pain, at two Swiss hospitals, a university hospital (UH) and a rural hospital (RH). Methods 161 patients were prospectively examined clinically. Blood tests and sonography were performed in all patients. Patients younger than 18 years and patients with trauma were excluded. In both hospitals, the diagnosis before and after ultrasonography was registered in a protocol. Certainty of the diagnosis was expressed on a scale from 0% to 100%. The decision processes used to manage patients before and after they underwent sonography were compared. The diagnosis at discharge was compared to the diagnosis 2 – 6 weeks thereafter. Results Sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of sonography were high: 94%, 88% and 91%, respectively. At the UH, management after sonography changed in only 14% of cases, compared to 27% at the RH. Additional tests were more frequently added at the UH (30%) than at the RH (18%), but had no influence on the decision making process-whether to operate or not. At the UH, the diagnosis was missed in one (1%) patient, but in three (5%) patients at the RH. No significant difference was found between the two hospitals in frequency of management changes due to sonography or in the correctness of the diagnosis. Conclusion Knowing that sonography has high sensitivity, specificity and accuracy in the diagnosis of acute abdominal pain, one would assume it would be an important diagnostic tool, particularly at the RH, where tests/imaging studies are rare. However, our pilot study indicates that sonography provides important diagnostic information in only a minority of patients with acute abdominal pain. Sonography was more important at the rural hospital than at the university hospital. Further costly examinations are generally ordered for verification, but these additional tests change the final treatment plan in very few patients.
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Molecular markers reliably predicting failure or success of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) in the treatment of nonmuscle-invasive urothelial bladder cancer (NMIBC) are lacking. The aim of our study was to evaluate the value of cytology and chromosomal aberrations detected by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) in predicting failure to BCG therapy. Sixty-eight patients with NMIBC were prospectively recruited. Bladder washings collected before and after BCG instillation were analyzed by conventional cytology and by multitarget FISH assay (UroVysion, Abbott/Vysis, Des Plaines, IL) for aberrations of chromosomes 3, 7, 17 and 9p21. Persistent and recurrent bladder cancers were defined as positive events during follow-up. Twenty-six of 68 (38%) NMIBC failed to BCG. Both positive post-BCG cytology and positive post-BCG FISH were significantly associated with failure of BCG (hazard ratio (HR)= 5.1 and HR= 5.6, respectively; p < 0.001 each) when compared to those with negative results. In the subgroup of nondefinitive cytology (all except those with unequivocally positive cytology), FISH was superior to cytology as a marker of relapse (HR= 6.2 and 1.4, respectively). Cytology and FISH in post-BCG bladder washings are highly interrelated and a positive result predicts failure to BCG therapy in patients with NMIBC equally well. FISH is most useful in the diagnostically less certain cytology categories but does not provide additional information in clearly malignant cytology.
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BACKGROUND Assessment of pre-test probability of pulmonary embolism (PE) and prognostic stratification are two widely recommended steps in the management of patients with suspected PE. Some items of the Geneva prediction rule may have a prognostic value. We analyzed whether the initial probability assessed by the Geneva rule was associated with the outcome of patients with PE. METHODS In a post-hoc analysis of a multicenter trial including 1,693 patients with suspected PE, the all-cause death or readmission rates during the 3-month follow-up of patients with confirmed PE were analyzed. PE probability group was prospectively assessed by the revised Geneva score (RGS). Similar analyses were made with the a posteriori-calculated simplified Geneva score (SGS). RESULTS PE was confirmed in 357 patients and 21 (5.9%) died during the 3-month follow-up. The mortality rate differed significantly with the initial RGS group, as with the SGS group. For the RGS, the mortality increased from 0% (95% Confidence Interval: [0-5.4%]) in the low-probability group to 14.3% (95% CI: [6.3-28.2%]) in the high-probability group, and for the SGS, from 0% (95% CI: [0-5.4%] to 17.9% (95% CI: [7.4-36%]). Readmission occurred in 58 out of the 352 patients with complete information on readmission (16.5%). No significant change of readmission rate was found among the RGS or SGS groups. CONCLUSIONS Returning to the initial PE probability evaluation may help clinicians predict 3-month mortality in patients with confirmed PE. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00117169).
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Popularity of Online Social Networks has been recently overshadowed by the privacy problems they pose. Users are getting increasingly vigilant concerning information they disclose and are strongly opposing the use of their information for commercial purposes. Nevertheless, as long as the network is offered to users for free, providers have little choice but to generate revenue through personalized advertising to remain financially viable. Our study empirically investigates the ways out of this deadlock. Using conjoint analysis we find that privacy is indeed important for users. We identify three groups of users with different utility patterns: Unconcerned Socializers, Control-conscious Socializers and Privacy-concerned. Our results provide relevant insights into how network providers can capitalize on different user preferences by specifically addressing the needs of distinct groups in the form of various premium accounts. Overall, our study is the first attempt to assess the value of privacy in monetary terms in this context.
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INTRODUCTION Proteinuria (PTU) is an important marker for the development and progression of renal disease, cardiovascular disease and death, but there is limited information about the prevalence and factors associated with confirmed PTU in predominantly white European HIV+ persons, especially in those with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2). PATIENTS AND METHODS Baseline was defined as the first of two consecutive dipstick urine protein (DPU) measurements during prospective follow-up >1/6/2011 (when systematic data collection began). PTU was defined as two consecutive DUP >1+ (>30 mg/dL) >3 months apart; persons with eGFR <60 at either DPU measurement were excluded. Logistic regression investigated factors associated with PTU. RESULTS A total of 1,640 persons were included, participants were mainly white (n=1,517, 92.5%), male (n=1296, 79.0%) and men having sex with men (n=809; 49.3%). Median age at baseline was 45 (IQR 37-52 years), and CD4 was 570 (IQR 406-760/mm(3)). The median baseline date was 2/12 (IQR 11/11-6/12), and median eGFR was 99 (IQR 88-109 mL/min/1.73 m(2)). Sixty-nine persons had PTU (4.2%, 95% CI 3.2-4.7%). Persons with diabetes had increased odds of PTU, as were those with a prior non-AIDS (1) or AIDS event and those with prior exposure to indinavir. Among females, those with a normal eGFR (>90) and those with prior abacavir use had lower odds of PTU (Figure 1). CONCLUSIONS One in 25 persons with eGFR>60 had confirmed proteinuria at baseline. Factors associated with PTU were similar to those associated with CKD. The lack of association with antiretrovirals, particularly tenofovir, may be due to the cross-sectional design of this study, and additional follow-up is required to address progression to PTU in those without PTU at baseline. It may also suggest other markers are needed to capture the deteriorating renal function associated with antiretrovirals may be needed at higher eGFRs. Our findings suggest PTU is an early marker for impaired renal function.
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In this work we propose the adoption of a statistical framework used in the evaluation of forensic evidence as a tool for evaluating and presenting circumstantial "evidence" of a disease outbreak from syndromic surveillance. The basic idea is to exploit the predicted distributions of reported cases to calculate the ratio of the likelihood of observing n cases given an ongoing outbreak over the likelihood of observing n cases given no outbreak. The likelihood ratio defines the Value of Evidence (V). Using Bayes' rule, the prior odds for an ongoing outbreak are multiplied by V to obtain the posterior odds. This approach was applied to time series on the number of horses showing clinical respiratory symptoms or neurological symptoms. The separation between prior beliefs about the probability of an outbreak and the strength of evidence from syndromic surveillance offers a transparent reasoning process suitable for supporting decision makers. The value of evidence can be translated into a verbal statement, as often done in forensics or used for the production of risk maps. Furthermore, a Bayesian approach offers seamless integration of data from syndromic surveillance with results from predictive modeling and with information from other sources such as disease introduction risk assessments.
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Theory: Interpersonal factors play a major role in causing and maintaining depression. It is unclear, however, to what degree significant others of the patient need to be involved for characterizing the patient's interpersonal style. Therefore, our study sought to investigate how impact messages as perceived by the patients' significant others add to the prediction of psychotherapy process and outcome above and beyond routine assessments, and therapist factors. Method: 143 outpatients with major depressive disorder were treated by 24 therapists with CBT or Exposure-Based Cognitive Therapy. Interpersonal style was measured pre and post therapy with the informant‐based Impact Message Inventory (IMI), in addition to the self‐report Inventory of Interpersonal Problems (IIP‐32). Indicators for the patients' dominance and affiliation as well as interpersonal distress were calculated from these measures. Depressive and general symptomatology was assessed at pre, post, and at three months follow‐up, and by process measures after every session. Results: Whereas significant other's reports did not add significantly to the prediction of the early therapeutic alliance, central mechanisms of change, or post‐therapy outcome including therapist factors, the best predictor of outcome 3 months post therapy was an increase in dominance as perceived by significant others. Conclusions: The patients' significant others seem to provide important additional information about the patients' interpersonal style and therefore should be included in the diagnostic process. Moreover, practitioners should specifically target interpersonal change as a potential mechanism of change in psychotherapy for depression.