Evaluating the Potential Impact of a Gas Pipeline on Whimbrel Breeding Habitat in the Outer Mackenzie Delta, Northwest Territories

We used ground surveys to identify breeding habitat for Whimbrel (Numenius phaeopus) in the outer Mackenzie Delta, Northwest Territories, and to test the value of high-resolution IKONOS imagery for mapping additional breeding habitat in the Delta. During ground surveys, we found Whimbrel nests (n = 28) in extensive areas of wet-sedge low-centered polygon (LCP) habitat on two islands in the Delta (Taglu and Fish islands) in 2006 and 2007. Supervised classification using spectral analysis of IKONOS imagery successfully identified additional areas of wet-sedge habitat in the region. However, ground surveys to test this classification found that many areas of wet-sedge habitat had dense shrubs, no standing water, and/or lacked polygon structure and did not support breeding Whimbrel. Visual examination of the IKONOS imagery was necessary to determine which areas exhibited LCP structure. Much lower densities of nesting Whimbrel were also found in upland habitats near wetlands. We used habitat maps developed from a combination of methods, to perform scenario analyses to estimate the potential effects of the Mackenzie Gas Project on Whimbrel habitat. Assuming effective complete habitat loss within 20 m, 50 m, or 250 m of any infrastructure or pipeline, the currently proposed pipeline development would result in loss of 8%, 12%, or 30% of existing Whimbrel habitat. If subsidence were to occur, most Whimbrel habitat could become unsuitable. If the facility is developed, follow-up surveys will be required to test these models.

Conceptual development of a harmonised method for tracking change and evaluating policy in the agri-environment: The Agri-environmental Footprint Index

An aggregated farm-level index, the Agri-environmental Footprint Index (AFI), based on multiple criteria methods and representing a harmonised approach to evaluation of EU agri-environmental schemes is described. The index uses a common framework for the design and evaluation of policy that can be customised to locally relevant agri-environmental issues and circumstances. Evaluation can be strictly policy-focused, or broader and more holistic in that context-relevant assessment criteria that are not necessarily considered in the evaluated policy can nevertheless be incorporated. The Index structure is flexible, and can respond to diverse local needs. The process of Index construction is interactive, engaging farmers and other relevant stakeholders in a transparent decision-making process that can ensure acceptance of the outcome, help to forge an improved understanding of local agri-environmental priorities and potentially increase awareness of the critical role of farmers in environmental management. The structure of the AFI facilitates post-evaluation analysis of relative performance in different dimensions of the agri-environment, permitting identification of current strengths and weaknesses, and enabling future improvement in policy design. Quantification of the environmental impact of agriculture beyond the stated aims of policy using an 'unweighted' form of the AFI has potential as the basis of an ongoing system of environmental audit within a specified agricultural context. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using deuterated PAH amendments to validate chemical extraction methods to predict PAH bioavailability in soils

Validating chemical methods to predict bioavailable fractions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) by comparison with accumulation bioassays is problematic. Concentrations accumulated in soil organisms not only depend on the bioavailable fraction but also on contaminant properties. A historically contaminated soil was freshly spiked with deuterated PAHs (dPAHs). dPAHs have a similar fate to their respective undeuterated analogues, so chemical methods that give good indications of bioavailability should extract the fresh more readily available dPAHs and historic more recalcitrant PAHs in similar proportions to those in which they are accumulated in the tissues of test organisms. Cyclodextrin and butanol extractions predicted the bioavailable fraction for earthworms (Eisenia fetida) and plants (Lolium multiflorum) better than the exhaustive extraction. The PAHs accumulated by earthworms had a larger dPAH:PAH ratio than that predicted by chemical methods. The isotope ratio method described here provides an effective way of evaluating other chemical methods to predict bioavailability.

Evaluating the potential for statistical decadal predictions of sea surface temperatures with a perfect model approach

We explore the potential for making statistical decadal predictions of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in a perfect model analysis, with a focus on the Atlantic basin. Various statistical methods (Lagged correlations, Linear Inverse Modelling and Constructed Analogue) are found to have significant skill in predicting the internal variability of Atlantic SSTs for up to a decade ahead in control integrations of two different global climate models (GCMs), namely HadCM3 and HadGEM1. Statistical methods which consider non-local information tend to perform best, but which is the most successful statistical method depends on the region considered, GCM data used and prediction lead time. However, the Constructed Analogue method tends to have the highest skill at longer lead times. Importantly, the regions of greatest prediction skill can be very different to regions identified as potentially predictable from variance explained arguments. This finding suggests that significant local decadal variability is not necessarily a prerequisite for skillful decadal predictions, and that the statistical methods are capturing some of the dynamics of low-frequency SST evolution. In particular, using data from HadGEM1, significant skill at lead times of 6–10 years is found in the tropical North Atlantic, a region with relatively little decadal variability compared to interannual variability. This skill appears to come from reconstructing the SSTs in the far north Atlantic, suggesting that the more northern latitudes are optimal for SST observations to improve predictions. We additionally explore whether adding sub-surface temperature data improves these decadal statistical predictions, and find that, again, it depends on the region, prediction lead time and GCM data used. Overall, we argue that the estimated prediction skill motivates the further development of statistical decadal predictions of SSTs as a benchmark for current and future GCM-based decadal climate predictions.

Evaluating raw ensembles with the continuous ranked probability score

The continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) is a frequently used scoring rule. In contrast with many other scoring rules, the CRPS evaluates cumulative distribution functions. An ensemble of forecasts can easily be converted into a piecewise constant cumulative distribution function with steps at the ensemble members. This renders the CRPS a convenient scoring rule for the evaluation of ‘raw’ ensembles, obviating the need for sophisticated ensemble model output statistics or dressing methods prior to evaluation. In this article, a relation between the CRPS score and the quantile score is established. The evaluation of ‘raw’ ensembles using the CRPS is discussed in this light. It is shown that latent in this evaluation is an interpretation of the ensemble as quantiles but with non-uniform levels. This needs to be taken into account if the ensemble is evaluated further, for example with rank histograms.

Evaluating multivariate forecast densities: a comparison of two approaches

We consider methods of evaluating multivariate density forecasts. A recently proposed method is found to lack power when the correlation structure is mis-specified. Tests that have good power to detect mis-specifications of this sort are described. We also consider the properties of the tests in the presence of more general mis-specifications.

Evaluating interval forecasts of high-frequency financial data

A number of methods of evaluating the validity of interval forecasts of financial data are analysed, and illustrated using intraday FTSE100 index futures returns. Some existing interval forecast evaluation techniques, such as the Markov chain approach of Christoffersen (1998), are shown to be inappropriate in the presence of periodic heteroscedasticity. Instead, we consider a regression-based test, and a modified version of Christoffersen's Markov chain test for independence, and analyse their properties when the financial time series exhibit periodic volatility. These approaches lead to different conclusions when interval forecasts of FTSE100 index futures returns generated by various GARCH(1,1) and periodic GARCH(1,1) models are evaluated.

Aspects of designing and evaluating seasonal-to-interannual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems

Using lessons from idealised predictability experiments, we discuss some issues and perspectives on the design of operational seasonal to inter-annual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems. We first review the opportunities to use a hierarchy of different types of experiment to learn about the predictability of Arctic climate. We also examine key issues for ensemble system design, such as: measuring skill, the role of ensemble size and generation of ensemble members. When assessing the potential skill of a set of prediction experiments, using more than one metric is essential as different choices can significantly alter conclusions about the presence or lack of skill. We find that increasing both the number of hindcasts and ensemble size is important for reliably assessing the correlation and expected error in forecasts. For other metrics, such as dispersion, increasing ensemble size is most important. Probabilistic measures of skill can also provide useful information about the reliability of forecasts. In addition, various methods for generating the different ensemble members are tested. The range of techniques can produce surprisingly different ensemble spread characteristics. The lessons learnt should help inform the design of future operational prediction systems.

An annotation-free method for evaluating privacy protection techniques in videos

While several privacy protection techniques are pre- sented in the literature, they are not complemented with an established objective evaluation method for their assess- ment and comparison. This paper proposes an annotation- free evaluation method that assesses the two key aspects of privacy protection that are privacy and utility. Unlike some existing methods, the proposed method does not rely on the use of subjective judgements and does not assume a spe- cific target type in the image data. The privacy aspect is quantified as an appearance similarity and the utility aspect is measured as a structural similarity between the original raw image data and the privacy-protected image data. We performed an extensive experimentation using six challeng- ing datasets (including two new ones) to demonstrate the effectiveness of the evaluation method by providing a per- formance comparison of four state-of-the-art privacy pro- tection techniques.

A method of evaluating the accuracy of human body thermoregulation models

Human Body Thermoregulation Models have been widely used in the field of human physiology or thermal comfort studies. However there are few studies on the evaluation method for these models. This paper summarises the existing evaluation methods and critically analyses the flaws. Based on that, a method for the evaluating the accuracy of the Human Body Thermoregulation models is proposed. The new evaluation method contributes to the development of Human Body Thermoregulation models and validates their accuracy both statistically and empirically. The accuracy of different models can be compared by the new method. Furthermore, the new method is not only suitable for the evaluation of Human Body Thermoregulation Models, but also can be theoretically applied to the evaluation of the accuracy of the population-based models in other research fields.

Evaluating glucose and xylose as cosubstrates for lipid accumulation and c-linolenic acid biosynthesis of Thamnidium elegans

Aims: To study the biotechnological production of lipids containing rich amounts of the medically and nutritionally important c-linolenic acid (GLA), during cultivation of the Zygomycetes Thamnidium elegans, on mixtures of glucose and xylose, abundant sugars of lignocellulosic biomass. Methods and Results: Glucose and xylose were utilized as carbon sources, solely or in mixtures, under nitrogen-limited conditions, in batch-flask or bioreactor cultures. On glucose, T. elegans produced 31.9 g/L of biomass containing 15.0 g/L lipid with significantly high GLA content (1014 mg/L). Xylose was proved to be an adequate substrate for growth and lipid production. Additionally, xylitol secretion occurred when xylose was utilized as carbon source, solely or in mixtures with glucose. Batch-bioreactor trials on glucose yielded satisfactory lipid production, with rapid substrate consumption rates. Analysis of intracellular lipids showed that the highest GLA content was observed in early stationary growth phase, while the phospholipid fraction was the most unsaturated fraction of T. elegans. Conclusions: Thamnidium elegans represents a promising fungus for the successful valorization of sugar-based lignocellulosic residues into microbial lipids of high nutritional and pharmaceutical interest.

“Pussy cat, pussy cat where have you been..?” Evaluating the use of stable isotopes, radiogenic isotopes and trace elements for investigating the ecology of Panthera leo

1. Understanding the behaviour and ecology of large carnivores is becoming increasingly important as the list of endangered species grows, with felids such as Panthera leo in some locations heading dangerously close to extinction in the wild. In order to have more reliable and effective tools to understand animal behaviour, movement and diet, we need to develop novel, integrated approaches and effective techniques to capture a detailed profile of animal foraging and movement patterns. 2. Ecological studies have shown considerable interest in using stable isotope methods, both to investigate the nature of animal feeding habits, and to map their geographical location. However, recent work has suggested that stable isotope analyses of felid fur and bone is very complex and does not correlate directly with the isotopic composition of precipitation (and hence geographical location). 3. We present new data that suggest these previous findings may be atypical, and demonstrate that isotope analyses of Felidae are suitable for both evaluating dietary inputs and establishing geo-location as they have strong environmental referents to both food and water. These data provide new evidence of an important methodology that can be applied to the family Felidae for future research in ecology, conservation, wildlife forensics and archaeological science.

Reliability of a method for evaluating porosity in denture base resins

Background: The method of porosity analysis by water absorption has been carried out by the storage of the specimens in pure water, but it does not exclude the potential plasticising effect of the water generating unreal values of porosity. Objective: The present study evaluated the reliability of this method of porosity analysis in polymethylmethacrylate denture base resins by the determination of the most satisfactory solution for storage (S), where the plasticising effect was excluded. Materials and methods: Two specimen shapes (rectangular and maxillary denture base) and two denture base resins, water bath-polymerised (Classico) and microwave-polymerised (Acron MC) were used. Saturated anhydrous calcium chloride solutions (25%, 50%, 75%) and distilled water were used for specimen storage. Sorption isotherms were used to determine S. Porosity factor (PF) and diffusion coefficient (D) were calculated within S and for the groups stored in distilled water. anova and Tukey tests were performed to identify significant differences in PF results and Kruskal-Wallis test and Dunn multiple comparison post hoc test, for D results (alpha = 0.05). Results: For Acron MC denture base shape, FP results were 0.24% (S 50%) and 1.37% (distilled water); for rectangular shape FP was 0.35% (S 75%) and 0.19% (distilled water). For Classico denture base shape, FP results were 0.54% (S 75%) and 1.21% (distilled water); for rectangular shape FP was 0.7% (S 50%) and 1.32% (distilled water). FP results were similar in S and distilled water only for Acron MC rectangular shape (p > 0.05). D results in distilled water were statistically higher than S for all groups. Conclusions: The results of the study suggest that an adequate solution for storing specimens must be used to measure porosity by water absorption, based on excluding the plasticising effect.

Evaluating the annual nature of juvenile rings in Bolivian tropical rainforest trees

Knowledge on juvenile tree growth is crucial to understand how trees reach the canopy in tropical forests. However, long-term data on juvenile tree growth are usually unavailable. Annual tree rings provide growth information for the entire life of trees and their analysis has become more popular in tropical forest regions over the past decades. Nonetheless, tree ring studies mainly deal with adult rings as the annual character of juvenile rings has been questioned. We evaluated whether juvenile tree rings can be used for three Bolivian rainforest species. First, we characterized the rings of juvenile and adult trees anatomically. We then evaluated the annual nature of tree rings by a combination of three indirect methods: evaluation of synchronous growth patterns in the tree- ring series, (14)C bomb peak dating and correlations with rainfall. Our results indicate that rings of juvenile and adult trees are defined by similar ring-boundary elements. We built juvenile tree-ring chronologies and verified the ring age of several samples using (14)C bomb peak dating. We found that ring width was correlated with rainfall in all species, but in different ways. In all, the chronology, rainfall correlations and (14)C dating suggest that rings in our study species are formed annually.

On modeling and evaluating multicomputer transcoding architectures for live-video streams

The pervasive and ubiquitous computing has motivated researches on multimedia adaptation which aims at matching the video quality to the user needs and device restrictions. This technique has a high computational cost which needs to be studied and estimated when designing architectures and applications. This paper presents an analytical model to quantify these video transcoding costs in a hardware independent way. The model was used to analyze the impact of transcoding delays in end-to-end live-video transmissions over LANs, MANs and WANs. Experiments confirm that the proposed model helps to define the best transcoding architecture for different scenarios.