Pricing the cost of an election: the impact of the 2014 elections on stock markets

Qual o efeito de eleições em ativos reais? É possível mensurar diretamente a diferença de preços mesmo que só possamos enxergar um dos resultados potenciais? Essa dissertação estima esses efeitos utilizando metodologia baseada em opções sobre ações. O modelo aqui desenvolvido adaptção tradicional Black-Scholes para incorporar dois novos parâmetros: um salto no preço do ativo perfeitamente antecipado e uma série de probabilidades diárias refletindo as crenças sobre quem venceria a corrida eleitoral. Aplicamos esse método para o caso brasileiro das Eleições Presidenciais de 2014 e a Petrobras - uma importante companhia do setor petrolífero do país -utilizando dados de bolsa do segundo turno das eleições. Os resultados encontrados mostram uma diferença de 65-77% para o valor da companhia, dependendo de quem vencesse nas urnas. Isso é equivalente a aproximadamente 2.5% do PIB de 2014 do país.

On relaxed LMI-based designs for fuzzy regulators and fuzzy observers

Relaxed conditions for stability of nonlinear, continuous and discrete-time systems given by fuzzy models are presented. A theoretical analysis shows that the proposed methods provide better or at least the same results of the methods presented in the literature. Numerical results exemplify this fact. These results are also used for fuzzy regulators and observers designs. The nonlinear systems are represented by fuzzy models proposed by Takagi and Sugeno. The stability analysis and the design of controllers are described by linear matrix inequalities, that can be solved efficiently using convex programming techniques. The specification of the decay rate, constrains on control input and output are also discussed.

DO INERTIAL ELECTRIC CHARGES RADIATE WITH RESPECT TO UNIFORMLY ACCELERATED OBSERVERS

We revisit the long standing problem of analyzing an inertial electric charge from the point of view of uniformly accelerated observers in the context of semi-classical gravity. We Choose a suitable set of accelerated observers with respect to which there is no photon emission coming from the inertial charge. We discuss this result against previous claims.

Psychophysical power functions for apparent area in perceptive, memory, and inference conditions for observers of different age groups

The purpose of this research was to verify the effect of age on the exponent of the power function in Perceptive, Memory, and Inference experimental conditions. In the Memory condition the intervals of 2 min., 8, 24, and 48 hr. and 1 wk. were used between acquisition of information and remembering. For each experimental condition the ages of observers ranged between 17 and 35 years (Group I), 40-55 years (Group II), and 60-77 years (Group III), and education ranged from high school to graduate school. The observers estimated the areas of the Brazilian states using the psychophysical method of magnitude estimation. No significant differences were obtained for Groups I, II, and III for each experimental condition, except in the Memory Condition with the 24-hr. interval. Analysis for experimental conditions and ages showed a significant difference between the Perceptive Condition and each of the others, but no difference between the Inference and Memory Conditions. These results indicated that in the remembering processes there is no loss of information as a function of age. From the small variability in the power function exponents for the three ages, we may assume that age could be related to amount of education of the observers, which suggests study is important.

Nota de la Secretaría sobre la elección de nuevos miembros del Consejo Directivo del Instituto Latinoamericano de Planificación Económica y Social = Note by the Secretariat on the election of new members of the Governing Council of the Latin American Institute for Economic and Social Planning

Incluye Bibliografía

A macroscopic kinetic model for DNA polymerase elongation and high-fidelity nucleotide election

The enzymatically catalyzed template-directed extension of ssDNA/primer complex is an impor-tant reaction of extraordinary complexity. The DNA polymerase does not merely facilitate the insertion of dNMP, but it also performs rapid screening of substrates to ensure a high degree of fidelity. Several kinetic studies have determined rate constants and equilibrium constants for the elementary steps that make up the overall pathway. The information is used to develop a macro-scopic kinetic model, using an approach described by Ninio [Ninio J., 1987. Alternative to the steady-state method: derivation of reaction rates from first-passage times and pathway probabili-ties. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 84, 663–667]. The principle idea of the Ninio approach is to track a single template/primer complex over time and to identify the expected behavior. The average time to insert a single nucleotide is a weighted sum of several terms, in-cluding the actual time to insert a nucleotide plus delays due to polymerase detachment from ei-ther the ternary (template-primer-polymerase) or quaternary (+nucleotide) complexes and time delays associated with the identification and ultimate rejection of an incorrect nucleotide from the binding site. The passage times of all events and their probability of occurrence are ex-pressed in terms of the rate constants of the elementary steps of the reaction pathway. The model accounts for variations in the average insertion time with different nucleotides as well as the in-fluence of G+C content of the sequence in the vicinity of the insertion site. Furthermore the model provides estimates of error frequencies. If nucleotide extension is recognized as a compe-tition between successful insertions and time delaying events, it can be described as a binomial process with a probability distribution. The distribution gives the probability to extend a primer/template complex with a certain number of base pairs and in general it maps annealed complexes into extension products.

Public Speaking in Social Phobia: A Pilot Study of Self-Ratings and Observers' Ratings of Social Skills

Objectives: The aim of this pilot study was to investigate whether patients with social anxiety disorder (SAD) differ from controls in the quality of skill-related behaviors displayed during a speech and in overall behavioral adequacy as perceived by observers and by the patients themselves. Design: A total of 18 SAD patients and 18 controls were screened by a diagnostic interview and took part in a 3-minute speech of their own choosing. For each videotaped speech, observers rated the adequacy of the skill-related behaviors and overall performance adequacy. After the experiment, participants were asked to rate their own overall performance adequacy. Results: The results showed that SAD patients exhibited significantly worse voice intonation and fluency of the speech, however no differences were found in global self-ratings. Moreover, the performance evaluations of the SAD group were consistent with the observers, while the controls evaluated their performance lower than the observers. Conclusions: The results are inconsistent with the cognitive model, because patients with SAD did not underestimate their performance. Compared with spontaneous interactions, the clear rules established for such social situations as speeches may result in less cognitive distortion for SAD patients. (C) 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J. Clin. Psychol. 68:397-402, 2012.

'Beheading', Rule Manipulation and Fraud: The Approval of Election Results in Brazil, 1894-1930

Studies of electoral fraud tend to focus their analyses only on the pre-electoral or electoral phases. By examining the Brazilian First Republic (1889-1930), this article shifts the focus to a later phase, discussing a particular type of electoral fraud that has been little explored by the literature, namely, that perpetrated by the legislatures themselves during the process of giving final approval to election results. The Brazilian case is interesting because of a practice known as degola ('beheading') whereby electoral results were altered when Congress decided on which deputies to certify as duly elected. This has come to be seen as a widespread and standard practice in this period. However, this article shows that this final phase of rubber-stamping or overturning election results was important not because of the number of degolas, which was actually much lower than the literature would have us believe, but chiefly because of their strategic use during moments of political uncertainty. It argues that the congressional certification of electoral results was deployed as a key tool in ensuring the political stability of the Republican regime in the absence of an electoral court.