Alteração da fertilidade do solo como indicador do processo de antropização e presença de atividades não agrícolas no assentamento rural Horto Aimorés, municípios de Bauru e Pederneiras/SP =: Change of soil fertility as an indicator of the anthropization process and presence of non agricultural activities at the rural settlement Horto Aimorés, cities of Bauru and Pederneiras/ SP

Pós-graduação em Geografia - FCT

Accounting for uncertainty in ecological analysis: the strengths and limitations of hierarchical statistical modeling

Analyses of ecological data should account for the uncertainty in the process(es) that generated the data. However, accounting for these uncertainties is a difficult task, since ecology is known for its complexity. Measurement and/or process errors are often the only sources of uncertainty modeled when addressing complex ecological problems, yet analyses should also account for uncertainty in sampling design, in model specification, in parameters governing the specified model, and in initial and boundary conditions. Only then can we be confident in the scientific inferences and forecasts made from an analysis. Probability and statistics provide a framework that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty. Given the complexities of ecological studies, the hierarchical statistical model is an invaluable tool. This approach is not new in ecology, and there are many examples (both Bayesian and non-Bayesian) in the literature illustrating the benefits of this approach. In this article, we provide a baseline for concepts, notation, and methods, from which discussion on hierarchical statistical modeling in ecology can proceed. We have also planted some seeds for discussion and tried to show where the practical difficulties lie. Our thesis is that hierarchical statistical modeling is a powerful way of approaching ecological analysis in the presence of inevitable but quantifiable uncertainties, even if practical issues sometimes require pragmatic compromises.

A Model-Based Approach for Making Ecological Inference from Distance Sampling Data

We consider a fully model-based approach for the analysis of distance sampling data. Distance sampling has been widely used to estimate abundance (or density) of animals or plants in a spatially explicit study area. There is, however, no readily available method of making statistical inference on the relationships between abundance and environmental covariates. Spatial Poisson process likelihoods can be used to simultaneously estimate detection and intensity parameters by modeling distance sampling data as a thinned spatial point process. A model-based spatial approach to distance sampling data has three main benefits: it allows complex and opportunistic transect designs to be employed, it allows estimation of abundance in small subregions, and it provides a framework to assess the effects of habitat or experimental manipulation on density. We demonstrate the model-based methodology with a small simulation study and analysis of the Dubbo weed data set. In addition, a simple ad hoc method for handling overdispersion is also proposed. The simulation study showed that the model-based approach compared favorably to conventional distance sampling methods for abundance estimation. In addition, the overdispersion correction performed adequately when the number of transects was high. Analysis of the Dubbo data set indicated a transect effect on abundance via Akaike’s information criterion model selection. Further goodness-of-fit analysis, however, indicated some potential confounding of intensity with the detection function.

The Ecological Basis for Biogeographic Classification: an Example in Orchid Bees (Apidae: Euglossini)

Biogeography has been difficult to apply as a methodological approach because organismic biology is incomplete at levels where the process of formulating comparisons and analogies is complex. The study of insect biogeography became necessary because insects possess numerous evolutionary traits and play an important role as pollinators. Among insects, the euglossine bees, or orchid bees, attract interest because the study of their biology allows us to explain important steps in the evolution of social behavior and many other adaptive tradeoffs. We analyzed the distribution of morphological characteristics in Colombian orchid bees from an ecological perspective. The aim of this study was to observe the distribution of these attributes on a regional basis. Data corresponding to Colombian euglossine species were ordered with a correspondence analysis and with subsequent hierarchical clustering. Later, and based on community proprieties, we compared the resulting hierarchical model with the collection localities to seek to identify a biogeographic classification pattern. From this analysis, we derived a model that classifies the territory of Colombia into 11 biogeographic units or natural clusters. Ecological assumptions in concordance with the derived classification levels suggest that species characteristics associated with flight performance, nectar uptake, and social behavior are the factors that served to produce the current geographical structure.

Moving beyond a descriptive aquatic toxicology: the value of biological process and trait information

In order to improve the ability to link chemical exposure to toxicological and ecological effects, aquatic toxicology will have to move from observing what chemical concentrations induce adverse effects to more explanatory approaches, that are concepts which build on knowledge of biological processes and pathways leading from exposure to adverse effects, as well as on knowledge on stressor vulnerability as given by the genetic, physiological and ecological (e.g., life history) traits of biota. Developing aquatic toxicology in this direction faces a number of challenges, including (i) taking into account species differences in toxicant responses on the basis of the evolutionarily developed diversity of phenotypic vulnerability to environmental stressors, (ii) utilizing diversified biological response profiles to serve as biological read across for prioritizing chemicals, categorizing them according to modes of action, and for guiding targeted toxicity evaluation; (iii) prediction of ecological consequences of toxic exposure from knowledge of how biological processes and phenotypic traits lead to effect propagation across the levels of biological hierarchy; and (iv) the search for concepts to assess the cumulative impact of multiple stressors. An underlying theme in these challenges is that, in addition to the question of what the chemical does to the biological receptor, we should give increasing emphasis to the question how the biological receptor handles the chemicals, i.e., through which pathways the initial chemical-biological interaction extends to the adverse effects, how this extension is modulated by adaptive or compensatory processes as well as by phenotypic traits of the biological receptor.

The Role of Parasitism in Adaptive Radiations - When Might Parasites Promote and When Might They Constrain Ecological Speciation?

Research on speciation and adaptive radiation has flourished during the past decades, yet factors underlying initiation of reproductive isolation often remain unknown. Parasites represent important selective agents and have received renewed attention in speciation research. We review the literature on parasite-mediated divergent selection in context of ecological speciation and present empirical evidence for three nonexclusive mechanisms by which parasites might facilitate speciation: reduced viability or fecundity of immigrants and hybrids, assortative mating as a pleiotropic by-product of host adaptation, and ecologically-based sexual selection. We emphasise the lack of research on speciation continuums, which is why no study has yet made a convincing case for parasite driven divergent evolution to initiate the emergence of reproductive isolation. We also point interest towards selection imposed by single vs. multiple parasite species, conceptually linking this to strength and multifariousness of selection. Moreover, we discuss how parasites, by manipulating behaviour or impairing sensory abilities of hosts, may change the form of selection that underlies speciation. We conclude that future studies should consider host populations at variable stages of the speciation process, and explore recurrent patterns of parasitism and resistance that could pinpoint the role of parasites in imposing the divergent selection that initiates ecological speciation.

Livelihoods in Transition: Changing Land Use Strategies and Ecological Implications in a Post Soviet Setting (Kyrgyzstan)

The sudden independence of Kyrgyzstan from the Soviet Union in 1991 led to a total rupture of industrial and agricultural production. Based on empirical data, this study seeks to identify key land use transformation processes since the late 1980s, their impact on people's livelihoods and the implication for natural resources in the communes of Tosh Bulak and Saz, located in the Sokuluk River Basin on the northern slope of the Kyrgyz Range. Using the concept of the sustainable livelihood approach as an analytical framework, three different livelihood strategies were identified: (1) An accumulation strategy applied by wealthy households where renting and/or buying of land is a key element; they are the only household category capable of venturing into rain fed agriculture. (2) A preserving strategy involving mainly intermediate households who are not able to buy or rent additional agricultural land; very often they are forced to return their land to the commune or sell it to wealthier households. (3) A coping strategy including mainly poor households consisting of elderly pensioners or headed by single mothers; due to their limited labour and economic power, agricultural production is very low and hardly covers subsistence needs; pensions and social allowances form the backbone of these livelihoods. Ecological assessments have shown that the forage productivity of remote high mountain pastures has increased from 5 to 22 per cent since 1978. At the same time forage productivity on pre-mountain and mountain pastures close to villages has generally decreased from 1 to 34 per cent. It seems that the main avenues for livelihoods to increase their wealth are to be found in the agricultural sector by controlling more and mainly irrigated land as well as by increasing livestock. The losers in this process are thus those households unable to keep or exploit their arable land or to benefit from new agricultural land. Ensuring access to land for the poor is therefore imperative in order to combat rural poverty and socio-economic disparities in rural Kyrgyzstan.

Ecological explanations for (incomplete) speciation

Divergent natural selection has been shown to promote speciation in many taxa. However, although divergent selection often initiates the process of speciation, it often fails to complete it. Several time-based, geographic and genetic factors have been recognized to explain this variability in how far speciation proceeds. We review here recent evidence indicating that variability in the completeness of speciation can also be associated with the nature of divergent selection itself, with speciation being greatly promoted by (i) stronger selection on a given, single trait (the 'stronger selection' hypothesis) and (ii) selection on a greater number of traits (the 'multifarious selection' hypothesis). However, evidence for each selective hypothesis is still scarce, and further work is required to determine their relative importance.

Diversity versus disparity and the role of ecological opportunity in a continental bird radiation

Aim The Neotropical parrots (Arini) are an unusually diverse group which colonized South America in the Oligocene. The newly invaded Neotropics may have functioned as an underused adaptive zone and provided novel ecological opportunities that facilitated diversification. Alternatively, diversification may have been driven by ecological changes caused by Andean uplift and/or climate change from the Miocene onwards. Our aim was to find out whether Arini diversified in a classical adaptive radiation after their colonization of South America, or whether their diversification occurred later and was influenced by more recent environmental change. Location Neotropics. Methods We generated a time-calibrated phylogeny of more than 80% of all Arini species in order to analyse lineage diversification. This chronogram was also used as the basis for the reconstruction of morphological evolution within Arini using a multivariate ratio analysis of three size measurements. Results We found a concentration of size evolution and partitioning of size niches in the early history of Arini consistent with the process of adaptive radia- tion, but there were no signs of an early burst of speciation or a decrease in speci- ation rates through time. Although we detected no overall temporal shifts in diversification rates, we discovered two young, unexpectedly species-rich clades. Main conclusions Arini show signs of an early adaptive radiation, but we found no evidence of the slowdown in speciation rate generally considered a feature of island or lake radiations. Historical processes and environmental change from the Miocene onwards may have kept diversification rates roughly constant ever since the colonization of the Neotropics. Thus, Arini may not yet have reached equilibrium diversity. The lack of diversity-dependent speciation might be a general feature of adaptive radiations on a continental scale, and diversification processes on continents might therefore not be as ecologically limited as in isolated lakes or on oceanic islands.

Why evolutionary biologists should get seriously involved in ecological monitoring and applied biodiversity assessment programs

While ecological monitoring and biodiversity assessment programs are widely implemented and relatively well developed to survey and monitor the structure and dynamics of populations and communities in many ecosystems, quantitative assessment and monitoring of genetic and phenotypic diversity that is important to understand evolutionary dynamics is only rarely integrated. As a consequence, monitoring programs often fail to detect changes in these key components of biodiversity until after major loss of diversity has occurred. The extensive efforts in ecological monitoring have generated large data sets of unique value to macro-scale and long-term ecological research, but the insights gained from such data sets could be multiplied by the inclusion of evolutionary biological approaches. We argue that the lack of process-based evolutionary thinking in ecological monitoring means a significant loss of opportunity for research and conservation. Assessment of genetic and phenotypic variation within and between species needs to be fully integrated to safeguard biodiversity and the ecological and evolutionary dynamics in natural ecosystems. We illustrate our case with examples from fishes and conclude with examples of ongoing monitoring programs and provide suggestions on how to improve future quantitative diversity surveys.

Process and pattern in cichlid radiations - inferences for understanding unusually high rates of evolutionary diversification

The cichlid fish radiations in the African Great Lakes differ from all other known cases of rapid speciation in vertebrates by their spectacular trophic diversity and richness of sympatric species, comparable to the most rapid angiosperm radiations. I review factors that may have facilitated these radiations and compare these with insights from recent work on plant radiations. Work to date suggests that it was a coincidence of ecological opportunity, intrinsic ecological versatility and genomic flexibility, rapidly evolving behavioral mate choice and large amounts of standing genetic variation that permitted these spectacular fish radiations. I propose that spatially orthogonal gradients in the fit of phenotypes to the environment facilitate speciation because they allow colonization of alternative fitness peaks during clinal speciation despite local disruptive selection. Such gradients are manifold in lakes because of the interaction of water depth as an omnipresent third spatial dimension with other fitness-relevant variables. I introduce a conceptual model of adaptive radiation that integrates these elements and discuss its applicability to, and predictions for, plant radiations.

Leftovers in seed dispersal: ecological implications of partial seed consumption for oak regeneration

1. Successful seed dispersal by animals is assumed to occur when undamaged seeds arrive at a favourable microsite. Most seed removal and dispersal studies consider only two possible seed fates, predation or escape intact. Whether partial consumption of seeds has ecological implications for natural regeneration is unclear. We studied partial consumption of seeds in a rodent-dispersed oak species. 2. Fifteen percent of dispersed acorns were found partially eaten in a field experiment. Most damage affected only the basal portion of the seeds, resulting in no embryo damage. Partially eaten acorns had no differences in dispersal distance compared to intact acorns but were recovered at farther distances than completely consumed acorns. 3. Partially eaten acorns were found under shrub cover unlike intact acorns that were mostly dispersed to open microhabitats. 4. Partially eaten acorns were not found buried proportionally more often than intact acorns, leading to desiccation and exposure to biotic agents (predators, bacteria and fungi). However, partial consumption caused more rapid germination, which enables the acorns to tolerate the negative effects of exposure. 5. Re-caching and shrub cover as microhabitat of destination promote partial seed consumption. Larger acorns escaped predation more often and had higher uneaten cotyledon mass. Satiation at seed level is the most plausible explanation for partial consumption. 6. Partial consumption caused no differences in root biomass when acorns experienced only small cotyledon loss. However, root biomass was lower when acorns experienced heavy loss of tissue but, surprisingly, they produced longer roots, which allow the seeds to gain access sooner to deeper resources. 7.Synthesis. Partial consumption of acorns is an important event in the oak regeneration process, both quantitatively and qualitatively. Most acorns were damaged non-lethally, without decreasing both dispersal distances and the probability of successful establishment. Faster germination and production of longer roots allow partially eaten seeds to tolerate better the exposure disadvantages caused by the removal of the pericarp and the non-buried deposition. Consequently, partially consumed seeds can contribute significantly to natural regeneration and must be considered in future seed dispersal studies.

Ecological inference

Ecological inference is the process of drawing conclusions about individual-level behavior from aggregate-level data. Recent advances involve the combination of statistical and deterministic means to produce such inferences.

Enrichment of the Phenotypic and Genotypic Data Warehouse analysis using Question Answering systems to facilitate the decision making process in cereal breeding programs

Currently there are an overwhelming number of scientific publications in Life Sciences, especially in Genetics and Biotechnology. This huge amount of information is structured in corporate Data Warehouses (DW) or in Biological Databases (e.g. UniProt, RCSB Protein Data Bank, CEREALAB or GenBank), whose main drawback is its cost of updating that makes it obsolete easily. However, these Databases are the main tool for enterprises when they want to update their internal information, for example when a plant breeder enterprise needs to enrich its genetic information (internal structured Database) with recently discovered genes related to specific phenotypic traits (external unstructured data) in order to choose the desired parentals for breeding programs. In this paper, we propose to complement the internal information with external data from the Web using Question Answering (QA) techniques. We go a step further by providing a complete framework for integrating unstructured and structured information by combining traditional Databases and DW architectures with QA systems. The great advantage of our framework is that decision makers can compare instantaneously internal data with external data from competitors, thereby allowing taking quick strategic decisions based on richer data.

An authoring tool for decision support systems in context questions of ecological knowledge

Decision support systems (DSS) support business or organizational decision-making activities, which require the access to information that is internally stored in databases or data warehouses, and externally in the Web accessed by Information Retrieval (IR) or Question Answering (QA) systems. Graphical interfaces to query these sources of information ease to constrain dynamically query formulation based on user selections, but they present a lack of flexibility in query formulation, since the expressivity power is reduced to the user interface design. Natural language interfaces (NLI) are expected as the optimal solution. However, especially for non-expert users, a real natural communication is the most difficult to realize effectively. In this paper, we propose an NLI that improves the interaction between the user and the DSS by means of referencing previous questions or their answers (i.e. anaphora such as the pronoun reference in “What traits are affected by them?”), or by eliding parts of the question (i.e. ellipsis such as “And to glume colour?” after the question “Tell me the QTLs related to awn colour in wheat”). Moreover, in order to overcome one of the main problems of NLIs about the difficulty to adapt an NLI to a new domain, our proposal is based on ontologies that are obtained semi-automatically from a framework that allows the integration of internal and external, structured and unstructured information. Therefore, our proposal can interface with databases, data warehouses, QA and IR systems. Because of the high NL ambiguity of the resolution process, our proposal is presented as an authoring tool that helps the user to query efficiently in natural language. Finally, our proposal is tested on a DSS case scenario about Biotechnology and Agriculture, whose knowledge base is the CEREALAB database as internal structured data, and the Web (e.g. PubMed) as external unstructured information.