Optimal release strategies for biological control agents: an application of stochastic dynamic programming to population management

1. Establishing biological control agents in the field is a major step in any classical biocontrol programme, yet there are few general guidelines to help the practitioner decide what factors might enhance the establishment of such agents. 2. A stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) approach, linked to a metapopulation model, was used to find optimal release strategies (number and size of releases), given constraints on time and the number of biocontrol agents available. By modelling within a decision-making framework we derived rules of thumb that will enable biocontrol workers to choose between management options, depending on the current state of the system. 3. When there are few well-established sites, making a few large releases is the optimal strategy. For other states of the system, the optimal strategy ranges from a few large releases, through a mixed strategy (a variety of release sizes), to many small releases, as the probability of establishment of smaller inocula increases. 4. Given that the probability of establishment is rarely a known entity, we also strongly recommend a mixed strategy in the early stages of a release programme, to accelerate learning and improve the chances of finding the optimal approach.

Dynamic spatiotemporal expression patterns of neurocan and phosphacan indicate diverse roles in the developing and adult mouse olfactory system

The chondroitin sulfate proteoglycans neurocan and phosphacan are believed to modulate neurite outgrowth by binding to cell adhesion molecules, tenascin, and the differentiation factors heparin-binding growth-associated molecule and amphoterin. To assess the role of these chondroitin sulfate proteoglycans in the olfactory system, we describe here their expression patterns during both embryonic and postnatal development in the mouse. Immunoreactivity for neurocan was first detected in primary olfactory neurons at embryonic day 11.5 (E11.5). Neurocan was expressed by primary olfactory axons as they extended toward the rostral pole of the telencephalon as well as by their arbors in glomeruli after they contacted the olfactory bulb. The role of neurocan was examined by growing olfactory neurons on an extracellular matrix substrate containing neurocan or on extracellular matrix in the presence of soluble neurocan. In both cases, neurocan strongly promoted neurite outgrowth. These results suggest that neurocan supports the growth of primary olfactory axons through the extracellular matrix as they project to the olfactory bulb during development. Phosphacan, unlike neurocan, was present within the mesenchyme surrounding the E11.5 and E12.5 nasal cavity. This expression decreased at E13.5, concomitant with a transient appearance of phosphacan in nerve fascicles. Within the embryonic olfactory bulb, phosphacan was localised to the external and internal plexiform layers. However, during early postnatal development phosphacan was concentrated in the glomerular layer. These results suggest that phosphacan may play a role in delineating the pathway of growing olfactory axons as well as defining the laminar organization of the bulb. Together, the spatiotemporal expression patterns of neurocan and phosphacan indicate that these chondroitin sulfate proteoglycans have diverse in situ roles, which are dependent on context-specific interactions with extracellular and cell adhesion molecules within the developing olfactory nerve pathway. (C) 2000 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Simultaneous steady state and dynamic design of process systems using structural indicators

The simultaneous design of the steady-state and dynamic performance of a process has the ability to satisfy much more demanding dynamic performance criteria than the design of dynamics only by the connection of a control system. A method for designing process dynamics based on the use of a linearised systems' eigenvalues has been developed. The eigenvalues are associated with system states using the unit perturbation spectral resolution (UPSR), characterising the dynamics of each state. The design method uses a homotopy approach to determine a final design which satisfies both steady-state and dynamic performance criteria. A highly interacting single stage forced circulation evaporator system, including control loops, was designed by this method with the goal of reducing the time taken for the liquid composition to reach steady-state. Initially the system was successfully redesigned to speed up the eigenvalue associated with the liquid composition state, but this did not result in an improved startup performance. Further analysis showed that the integral action of the composition controller was the source of the limiting eigenvalue. Design changes made to speed up this eigenvalue did result in an improved startup performance. The proposed approach provides a structured way to address the design-control interface, giving significant insight into the dynamic behaviour of the system such that a systematic design or redesign of an existing system can be undertaken with confidence.

Tidal fluctuations in a leaky confined aquifer: Dynamic effects of an overlying phreatic aquifer

Tidal fluctuations in a leaky confined coastal aquifer are damped significantly due to leakage into an overlying phreatic aquifer. Jiao and Tang [1999] presented an analytical solution to a simple model describing this phenomenon. Their solution assumes that the tidal fluctuations in the overlying phreatic aquifer are negligible (i.e,, a static phreatic aquifer), Here we examine dynamic effects of the overlying aquifer based on a new approximate analytical solution. The numerical results indicate that the dynamic effects can be significant for a relatively large leakage and a high transmissivity of the phreatic aquifer.

Using stochastic dynamic programming to determine optimal fire management for Banksia ornata

1. A model of the population dynamics of Banksia ornata was developed, using stochastic dynamic programming (a state-dependent decision-making tool), to determine optimal fire management strategies that incorporate trade-offs between biodiversity conservation and fuel reduction. 2. The modelled population of B. ornata was described by its age and density, and was exposed to the risk of unplanned fires and stochastic variation in germination success. 3. For a given population in each year, three management strategies were considered: (i) lighting a prescribed fire; (ii) controlling the incidence of unplanned fire; (iii) doing nothing. 4. The optimal management strategy depended on the state of the B. ornata population, with the time since the last fire (age of the population) being the most important variable. Lighting a prescribed fire at an age of less than 30 years was only optimal when the density of seedlings after a fire was low (< 100 plants ha(-1)) or when there were benefits of maintaining a low fuel load by using more frequent fire. 5. Because the cost of management was assumed to be negligible (relative to the value of the persistence of the population), the do-nothing option was never the optimal strategy, although lighting prescribed fires had only marginal benefits when the mean interval between unplanned fires was less than 20-30 years.

The Internationalization Process as Generator Element of Dynamic Capacities: the case of WEG in Argentina and China

The objective of he article is to research the dynamic capacities developed and used by WEG in its internationalization process and to explain how these capacities help the company defends and supports competitive advantage. The article presents an exploratory study of the internationalization process of WEG in Argentina and China. This article has as analysis approach the dynamic capacities, contributes to the literature of international management in two aspects. First, it adds the analytical look of the internationalization based on dynamic capacities that are still well restricted. Second, when working the dynamic capacities as central element of the analysis of the internationalization process, it Proposes one framework of integrative analysis of the economic and behavioral theories that are used to explain the process of companies`-internationalization, although they are dealt independently and sometimes antagonistic way. The result shows as the dynamic capacities are articulated in the base of WEG in its process of internationalization for Argentina and the subsequent movement for China. The developed dynamic capacities in Argentina were acquired for the Brazilian headquarter and could have been applied in the process of internationalization for China. However, a more complex organizational structure cannot be identified where the inter-subsidiary relationships could share dynamic capacities as proposed in framework.

Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Temporal dynamic of the relationship between the parasitic isopod Aporobopyrus curtatus (Crustacea: Isopoda: Bopyridae) and the anomuran crab Petrolisthes armatus (Crustacea: Decapoda: Porcellanidae) in southern Brazil

The prevalence of the parasite Aporobopyrus curtatus in Petrolisthes armatus from southern Brazil was determined, and the effect the parasite had on host reproduction was evaluated. Of all 775 crabs sampled in Araca region from March 2005 to July 2006, 3.2% presented bopyrid parasites. All the parasitized individuals had one branchial chamber occupied by two mature parasites, with no preference for the right or left chamber. Male and female hosts were infested in equal proportions. Parasitized juveniles, large individuals and ovigerous females were not found in our study. The absence of parasitized ovigerous females seems to be insufficient evidence to support the hypothesis of parasitic castration and would require a histological study to confirm their reproductive death. The percentage of infestation observed in our study (3.1%) is lower than the one found in other studies and it could indicate the existence of factor(s) regulating the density of A. curtatus in the Araca region. At least in this population, the low but constant presence of the bopyrid A. curtatus population did not appear to have a negative effect on the porcellanid population, and parasitized individuals did not play a significant role in the natural history of P. armatus.

Dynamic susceptibility investigation of maghemite nanoparticles incorporated in bovine serum albumin template

Room-temperature measurements of the magnetic susceptibility of Bovine Serum Albumin-based nanocapsules (50 to 300 nm in size) loaded with different amounts of maghemite nanoparticles (7.6 nm average diameter) have been carried out in this study The field (H) dependence of the imaginary peak susceptibility (f(P)) of the nanocomposite samples was investigated in the range of 0 to 4 kOe. From the analysis of the f(P) x H curves the concentration (N) dependence of the effective maghemite magnetocrystalline energy barrier (E) was obtained. Analysis of the E x N data was performed using a modified Morup-Tronc [Phys. Rev. Lett. 72, 3278 (1994)] model, from which a huge contribution from the magnetocrystalline surface anisotropy was observed.

Credit assignment: The memory representation of dynamic task events

The experiment examined the influence of memory for prior instances on aircraft conflict detection. Participants saw pairs of similar aircraft repeatedly conflict with each other. Performance improvements suggest that participants credited the conflict status of familiar aircraft pairs to repeated static features such as speed, and dynamic features such as aircraft relative position. Participants missed conflicts when a conflict pair resembled a pair that had repeatedly passed safely. Participants either did not attend to, or interpret, the bearing of aircraft correctly as a result of false memory-based expectations. Implications for instance models and situational awareness in dynamic systems are discussed.

Configuration of stilbene derivatives by (1)H NMR and theoretical calculation of chemical shifts

The direct E/Z configuration assignment of tri- and tetra-substituted stilbenes (and other analogous olefins) when only one of the isomers is available is a quite challenging task. Sometimes, a chemical transformation or some other tedious method is necessary for determination of the double bond substitution pattern. In this paper, we relied on theoretical calculation of chemical shifts as a complementary tool for (1)H NMR determination of the configuration of an alpha-phenylcinnamic acid prepared as a unique isomer by the Perkin reaction. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamic strain measurement using piezoelectric polymer film

Piezoelectric polymers have been used to form the basis of dynamic strain gauges for the detection of stress waves. The linearity of response was tested using a split Hopkinson pressure bar arrangement. The results obtained illustrate the effectiveness of piezoelectric film strain gauges in the measurement of axial stress waves.

Analysis of dynamic process models for structural insight and model reduction .1. Structural identification measures

An important consideration in the development of mathematical models for dynamic simulation, is the identification of the appropriate mathematical structure. By building models with an efficient structure which is devoid of redundancy, it is possible to create simple, accurate and functional models. This leads not only to efficient simulation, but to a deeper understanding of the important dynamic relationships within the process. In this paper, a method is proposed for systematic model development for startup and shutdown simulation which is based on the identification of the essential process structure. The key tool in this analysis is the method of nonlinear perturbations for structural identification and model reduction. Starting from a detailed mathematical process description both singular and regular structural perturbations are detected. These techniques are then used to give insight into the system structure and where appropriate to eliminate superfluous model equations or reduce them to other forms. This process retains the ability to interpret the reduced order model in terms of the physico-chemical phenomena. Using this model reduction technique it is possible to attribute observable dynamics to particular unit operations within the process. This relationship then highlights the unit operations which must be accurately modelled in order to develop a robust plant model. The technique generates detailed insight into the dynamic structure of the models providing a basis for system re-design and dynamic analysis. The technique is illustrated on the modelling for an evaporator startup. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd

Analysis of dynamic models for structural insight and model reduction .2. A multi-stage compressor shutdown case-study

In this second paper, the three structural measures which have been developed are used in the modelling of a three stage centrifugal synthesis gas compressor. The goal of this case study is to determine the essential mathematical structure which must be incorporated into the compressor model to accurately model the shutdown of this system. A simple, accurate and functional model of the system is created via three structural measures. It was found that the model can be correctly reduced into its basic modes and that the order of the differential system can be reduced from 51(st) to 20(th). Of the 31 differential equational 21 reduce to algebraic relations, 8 become constants and 2 can be deleted thereby increasing the algebraic set from 70 to 91 equations. An interpretation is also obtained as to which physical phenomena are dominating the dynamics of the compressor add whether the compressor will enter surge during the shutdown. Comparisons of the reduced model performance against the full model are given, showing the accuracy and applicability of the approach. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd